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The Marathon ContinuesUS Futures traded marginally higher this morning, off the back of more media narratives of a "95% effective COVID-19 Vaccine". Prior to this most recent, and in all honesty, comedic narrative, it was "stimulus optimism" that drove (global) markets higher. But, I guess investors are not worried about that anymore. What happened to China Trade Deal optimism? I guess that doesn't matter anymore, either. It seems the FED and the government clearly take the public for fools, and maybe for good reason. The real economy is dead my friends, and for years it's been propped up by ZIRP, NIRP, bedtime stories of optimism, never-ending dollar debasement in the form of QE/"Liquidity", and exponential fiscal debt. Stock buy-back's continue to portray earnings growth, when all these companies are doing is perpetually lowering the number of shares outstanding to show earnings growth. Actual revenue growth has averaged just 4% over the past business cycle, vs earnings, which have grown somewhere in the realm of 30%. This is a magic trick, like every other aspect of the stock market. The stock market, as we see it now, has next to nothing to do with stocks, which is quite sad. But, let's see how long this lasts before everyone realizes that bedtime stories, and magic tricks, can't elevate stocks forever... Good luck out there today guys! If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
8
Stocks Sink As Lockdowns LoomHey guys, so I took a few days off because my wife and I moved. I hope everyone had a great weekend, and an even better thanksgiving! Let's get right into today's analysis. Global markets are mixed this morning, with US Futures trading slightly off yesterday's high's. Although we're seeing heightened optimism off the back of successful vaccine trial results from Moderna, and Pfizer's BioNTech, the interim rally lost steam amid growing concerns over a second wave of lockdowns. California, and New Jersey, among others, imposed new restrictions, and this is being rolled out pre-winter. Imo it's only going to get worse, and could be the scapegoat, yet again, to explain why the market crashes/corrects. Updates: - Gold is up marginally and sitting around 1889. - Yields were slightly off their high's with the 10Y sitting at .89. - Retail sales came in weaker than expected with 0.3% growth vs 0.5% exp. (prior 1.6%). - Industrial production came in at 1.1% vs expectations of 0.9%. - Capacity utilization came in at 72.8% vs 72.3% exp (prior 72%). - The Dollar (DXY) continues to get hammered, and is now sitting at 92.35, after a recent, but albeit brief, surge to 94.30. - The Vix is seeing some strength today and is trading off the recent low's. We're testing the 50 period MA on the hourly (23.80), but we have a long way to go to recapture the 100 day MA at 26.80. How much more of a beating can the Vix possibly take in the name of fundamentally suppressing price discovery? Well, I read recently that retail investors (dumb money), have out earned Hedge Funds (smart money), 10 to 1 this year. I think that sums up the current state of the market. - Bitcoin rose above 17,000 as the dollar debasement parade continues. SPY Analysis: - The Bulls successfully broke us above both the ascending channel resistance (a key trendline formed from the March crash, now sitting around 359), and the multi-year, megaphone resistance line at 358. I can't stress how close we are to a major move here, given the importance of these trendlines, alongside current stock valuations, and economic weakness. You guys need to decide if you think this massive move is going to be to the upside, or to the downside. You know where I stand on this. - If the bulls are able to hold on to the megaphone line on the weekly, it would mark the first weekly close above this trendline since we broke below in July 2011, over 9 years ago. I think it goes without saying that if there are any bears left, they'll be showing up this week to defend these long-term resistance levels. Major supports to watch below the megaphone resistance are 350 (the top of the triangle), the 21 day EMA (347.42), and the 50 day MA at 340. - The daily RSI is now sitting at 67, and the hourly is at 68, showing we're approaching overbought levels over multiple timeframes. (Weekly RSI is at 60). Thanks for your time today guys, and good luck out there! If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
4
[SPX 15M] Double Double TOP 1D & 1W LOL... 3680 MAX PEAK! B)Price dropped out of the bullish Symmetrical Triangle pattern today to retest the bottom of the peak channel and climbed right back in for an eventual breakout to a 1D Double Top and completion of 1W Double Double Top lol. This feels like a ridiculously bearish structure but a surprising number of ideas out there are confirming my 3680 5Y Peak Channel MAX PEAK from wildly different TA angles so I wouldn't be surprised if we have to deflect off this top blue line first for a bigger reversal. That probably needs to happen tomorrow or we need a small pullback to prevent invalidation of the double double top. Given the level of irrational exuberance these days, a clear break above the double double top could easily spike us up to the top of the channel within a single day. I don't know how we hold at such heights though... Technical Analysis vs. The World! Someone today was shtting on BEARS saying WE'RE the ones who are relying on "This Time is Different"! No, no, no... are you fckin kidding me bro? It's the BULLS whose entire case now rests on something happening that has never happened before. Sustained growth at a faster average rate than we have ever seen. You 4k BULLS are especially doped up on the KOOL-AID. #TechnicalAnalysisStillMatters My RSI Flow Model has RSI on the 2Y downtrend channel again (orange): My new TA Model is still indifferent, waiting for S/R break: My new Stocks Over 50 Day Average Entry/Exit model also right on local RSI peak S/R: And for good measure, here is my Acid Trip Model for UVXY stuck around $12.50 as expected, max low probably $10.50 here, which aligns with Feb bottom. Price also wedging into Core Decay Trend, which could trigger a spike EOM:
SP:SPXShort
by ProfitHarvest
17
Welcome To The JungleHey guys! So, let's get right into it with today's analysis. US Futures are trading slightly off the week's highs, as Asian and European markets slipped around 1-2 percent overnight. Jobless claims came in better than expected with 709k new claims and approx. 6.8MM continuing claims, while pandemic emergency claims continue to spike. Consumer price growth slowed notably, with CPI and core CPI coming in at zero percent. YOY CPI is now at 1.2 percent. The 10Y yield lost some steam overnight, and is sitting just off it's recent high around .93. Morgan Stanley recently said they expect a sharp rise in yields, imminently, and if you look at the 10Y chart, it's pretty obvious why they've come to that conclusion. The 10Y yield is up around 80% from the beginning of August. - SPY key supports to watch today are 349.93 (which is the 50 period MA on the hourly), 344.58 (the second gap to fill from the Nov 4th close), and 339.62 (the 50 day MA). - The daily RSI is sitting at 64.78 which is showing we're getting close to those overbought levels. We just about hit an RSI of 80 on the hourly on Monday (79.97). - Vix is back to a 24 handle after some weakness yesterday, and saw it's lowest hourly RSI print in two and a half years this week. Needless to say, risk protection is currently heavily oversold on the hourly. - DXY is sitting around 93 at the moment, and is just begging for a shift in sentiment before it's epic return as King Dollar. Best of luck out there today guys! If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. PS No live updates today unfortunately, I'm in the middle of moving so I have a lot on my plate, unfortunately. Cheers, Michael.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
8
10 Things I Hate About You (Comedy)Dear Mr. Market, 1. I hate the way you always seem to rise, even when you're supposed to fall. 2. I hate the way you make me scratch my head, when price action makes no sense at all. 3. I hate the way you brand me a contrarian, even though we all know the real economy is dead. 4. I hate the fact that you only seem to move, off of sentiment from the FED. 5. I hate that you give me road rage, when pushing my shopping cart at the grocery store. 6. I hate that you no longer care about fundamentals, and now you've made technicals a bore. 7. I hate the way that price action now controls sentiment, and not the other way around. 8. I hate when you squeeze me out of my short, even when support clearly hasn't been found. 9. I hate your stubborn attitude, when all the facts that are stacked against you stand tall. 10. But, most of all, Mr. Market, I hate the way I don't hate you, not even a little, not even at all. Yours Truly, The Bears
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
28
Don't Look DownThe global market rally/gap fiesta that played out over the past week or so, came to an abrupt end yesterday as we approached the close. SPY almost filled the massive overnight gap, and ended the day back below the long-term (multi-year) resistance line around 355, after achieving new all-time high's. Looking at the monthly SPY chart after yesterday's rejection, traders might be starting to get that, "don't look down" feeling. I think it goes without saying that trading with caution at these levels is prudent. As I've mentioned in previous posts, technical analysis is becoming increasingly difficult in a market that moves wildly off of immaterial headlines, and pure assumptions. But, we will continue to use technical analysis (and fundamental analysis), among others, to assess the state of the market, and future price action. The top of the megaphone pattern is the final line in the sand for the bears. If they fail to keep us below this level, and we see a breakout above on the monthly, we would need to reassess our outlook, and bearish thesis. However, for the moment, the technicals are still holding up, and the bears have a strong case. Stay tuned for live updates throughout the day, and best of luck out there! If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
6
Up, Up, And Away!Another day, another short squeeze. Stocks are surging to new all-time highs this morning, off the back of positive vaccine results from Pfizer's latest trial. "Dr. Jansen said the outside board did not say how many of those cases came from participants who had been vaccinated. But with a rate of more than 90% effectiveness, most had to have been in the placebo group.” That doesn't sound like very exciting news to me. But, I digress... SPY gapped up this morning (again), and is now up a cool 3% to start the week, because everything is awesome! Technical resistance levels, be it long-term, or short-term, don't seem to matter to investors, with this new level of panic FOMO that's gripping markets. Price action during trading hours is muted at best imo, while all the action seemingly happens in the overnight session. Gap up, after gap up, after gap up, after gap up. Can anything stop this never ending debt binge, and risk free-for-all? Will stock prices ever accurately reflect the value of the underlying asset, again? The logical answer is yes, but it sure doesn't feel like it's going to happen anytime soon. FB and AMZN are getting hammered, while MSFT and AAPL are flat on the day. Vix continues to get clubbed, in one of the most vicious corrections I've seen in a while. But, we're holding up relatively well as investors digest this "WTF" moment. Good luck out there today guys, and trade safe. If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
7
[UVXY] 8M Falling Wedge Conclusion x 13th... The GREAT Spike! B)If it's gonna happen, it's gonna start happening this week. We had a false breakout of this massive Bullish structure and rapid retrace, like a tide going out before the tsunami. This swing dip and spike Price action phenomenon is quite consistent. Based on my other UVXY work, I'd peg low of this dip to $12.50 and first TP would be $20-$25: Gonna let the bottom find itself and hop on as we break this structure. We got RSI 1D uptrend and potential bottom here and VPT RSI 2H spike indicator cross this week.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by ProfitHarvest
17
[UVXY] Back to the Drawing Board: DECAY is the KEY B)Sorry to leave you guys hangin! Felt like my UVXY shitposting was ultimately doing more harm than good. I was thinking far to linearly with my predictions and have simplified my buy in and cash out ranges. Gonna trust my indicators and RSI more too in conjunction with this. If you were following along the past couple months while I was hammering this thing out we had two great buy in opps at 19 late August that led to 32 max cash out opp and then my buy in call around 19 again was a bit aggressive as we fell to 16 but still there was a few days to exit over 20 with 23 max potential. Name of the game now: 1. Sell over core Decay Trend (magenta), buy under Decay Trend 2. Sell liberally, buy conservatively 3. Exit 100% of position before falling below Decay Trend 4. Enter in small chunks and buy on the way up to Decay Trend Hope this proves to be a bit more more clear, simple and effective.
CBOE:UVXY
by ProfitHarvest
14
November RainHey guys, Happy Friday! No gap up today (for a change), and we appear to be forming an island reversal pattern at the top of the triangle (350). We're seeing some weakness today off the back of a possible Biden victory, but most of the overnight losses were reversed after a stronger than expected payrolls print. Some of you might be wondering why Vix is down today over 4% today, while markets are all in the red. This happens sometimes when Vix is at elevated levels, and the market calms notably. Vix has a very erratic negative correlation with equities. Every once in a while, when we're seeing Vix above 30-40 let's say, like we were recently, and the market goes from falling 4-5% per day, to falling just 1-2% per day, on the latter end of the sell-off Vix will be down notably, as markets also fall 1-2%. Realized vol is falling, and so regardless of the fact that markets are down, vix can also be down. Good luck today guys, and enjoy your weekend! If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
61
Assume Crash PositionAnother massive gap up overnight without a material change in the outlook. Fourth short squeeze in a row of near identical magnitude. A relief rally was always possible after the recent correction. But, this one was much larger and more vicious than I had anticipated. We're up over 7% in 4 days. That used to be a decent annual return. But, price action is driving sentiment at the moment, and wild assumptions, and optimism based on those assumptions, is validating price action. In other words; the cart is being put before the horse. We're approaching the final resistance levels here at 350, which is the top of the triangle, and 354, which is the long-term Green trendline we lost on Oct 19th (it's also the previous high from Oct 12th). If we break above these levels, imo it would mark the official end to the bearish thesis, based on my technical analysis. I expect to see a strong rejection at these levels, followed by a swift correction back to low 320's, where we may see an interim bounce, before a resumption of selling down to the 300 level. Best of luck out there today guys, remember to trade tight stops, and always hedge against risk in uncertain times. The FED is not your friend, and market makers are happy to take the opposite side of your longs right now. If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
27
Stocks Explode, Nasdaq HaltedThe Nasdaq was halted overnight as the index surged up to 4% higher off the back of a stronger than expected performance by the Trump Camp. Apparently, the odds of a "Blue Wave" have all but collapsed, and this bodes well for Mega-Tech and growth stocks. Uncertainty around a contested election was also abated, off the back of a relatively orderly night of voting, which put clear pressure on hedges such as the Vix, which is down as much as 13% this morning. I think it goes without saying, that nothing material has changed since yesterday night when the voting numbers began to roll in, other than the price. Then off the price action, we get narratives to validate the move. This is not how it's supposed to work. Millions of votes are yet to be counted, and they're Biden weighted, so this election is still very much up in the air, and likely going to be contested imo. But, perception is everything, and when the price moves, it changes our perception of risk. Technical trading is becoming increasingly difficult in a market that moves wildly off of immaterial headlines, and pure assumptions. We lost fundamentals a long time ago, but until recently, technicals held up well as an indicator of future price action. We will continue to use technical analysis (and fundamental analysis), among others, to assess the state of the market, and future price action. But, it's like drinking warm beer. I'll still drink it, but something's definitely off. SPY Analysis: SPY is poised to gap up to around 341 on the open amid the nuclear bullish sentiment we're witnessing across the globe. This level is key as it's right around the upper band of the descending channel. A break above this level would put us above all major short-term resistance levels, and could result in another squeeze to the 350 level, and the long-term Green line resistance we broke below on Oct 19th. If we get rejected at the top of the descending channel, we could revisit the lower band as early as this afternoon. Vix is looking very oversold right now. I can only speak for myself, but I'm still net short, and hedged for the worst case scenario. As far as I'm concerned, nothing material has changed, not even the losses in my portfolio over the past 3 days are material. I'll share these trades with you guys the moment I unwind them, and it might be as early as today, depending on whether or not something material actually changes. Let's see how the morning session plays out... Stay tuned for live updates throughout the day, and best of luck out there guys! If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
7
There Will Be BloodGlobal markets continued to march higher overnight, with US futures up around 1%. The Vix got hammered back to a 35 handle as the current risk premium soars to all-time highs. S&P Futures broke above the 100 day MA (3312.25), after persistently testing this resistance level over the past 3 trading days. We kissed the 9 day MA at 3349.40 around 4AM this morning, but saw a clear rejection. The 9 day MA also happens to be right around the 200 period MA on the hourly (3351.91), which sets us up for bearish price action following a rejection at these key resistance levels. Depending on the angle of the former downward channel sitting just above the current price, it's also possible we saw a rejection off the bottom of the channel around 3349, strengthening today's bearish thesis. Notes: - It's election day! Headlines of "violence in the streets," are circling the MSM today (possibly to deter voters), as if the possibility of catching COVID-19 wasn't scaring people enough. - Morgan Stanley says rates are about to rise 100bp. When I said this a month ago, and discussed the 10Y yield rising (now up 65%) since August, it sounded crazy to most ears. Especially, when the FED had all but guaranteed "low" rates into 2023. Here's the article on ZeroHedge, www.zerohedge.com - The Dollar appears to be on the verge of a breakout, which could pressure risk assets further heading into year end. (We just tested the 100 day MA for the first time since May). - According to Christian Stocker, UniCredit Lead Equity Strategist, the market is currently betting on a Biden win, and the polls all seem to agree. But, will we see another 2016 surprise? Stay tuned for live updates throughout the day, and best of luck out there guys! If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
31
VIX 2D Bullish Technical Analysis ViewHere is your daily VIX update. I'll be tracking this closely as we head into the election and post daily updates to see where we are in the trend process if we are able to maintain it. With extreme uncertainty in the markets already and with much more to come, I have a bullish view on the VIX over the next 3 months. Right now, I don't believe we are in jeopardy of retesting any March levels, however, that could change quickly. Here are my catalysts for the VIX to move. Delayed Stimulus and the compounding effects Covid Resurgence (Media will control this narrative and may keep or accelerate fear faster than expected, I don't expect the opposite. Joe Biden's multiple references to "DARK WINTER") If Trump loses, Trump may cause havoc as he winds down his presidency Overseas Instability More EU Lockdowns - EXPECTED, this will hit the market hard and may have a delayed reaction. LIkely immediate sell-off, price agreement, and then further selling. US Lockdowns - Clearly, this would have the largest impact on our economy. Especially if we implement NATIONAL lockdowns. If Democrats win, I believe the likelihood of a lockdown increases dramatically. However, I still believe with the republicans retaining office, lockdowns would then be decided on a state by state or county by county basis and would lessen the overall impact. I'm sure there are many more catalysts to move the market so I would love your feedback and I'll add them in!
TVC:VIX
by jakelikesstocks
1
VIX Apocalypse$VIX: $VIX term structure suggests elevated volatility in the coming weeks/months. Welcome to backwardation. This is usually a good time to own $UVXY since the carry is low & actually compensates you for owning volatility. The only issue is that spot $VIX needs to rise and $SPX needs to sell. Then $UVXY will have an asymmetric payout. However, for now, without $SPX declining we're just waiting around at this point with slightly positive carry. If $SPX rallies now with backwardation occurring $UVXY loses big time. The opposite will occur if $SPX declines. Overall, a big move in either direction is incoming. No point in trying to predict where this will land. I'm waiting for a breakout for an indication of where/how I will position. Let price action decide. #STUDY Cheers
TVC:VIX
by VisionCodeX
2
Vol Looking Ripe For A BreakoutHey guys, so vol is holding the 50 day MA, we're now back above the 100 day, and about to break above the first downtrend resistance line (in white) around 28.50. We've been in an uptrend for a week or so, with bullish price action in risk assets. It's important to note that there's upward pressure building in vol, just as more and more investors turn bearish on vol. In other words, vol is not buying the dip (and neither am I). A break above the 200 day MA this week (around 30.43), could see 38 as the next major resistance. Personally, I think we'll see mid 40's (44) before vol starts to look overbought. If the SPY loses major Green line support this week, around 346, (see my most recent post on the SPY below), we could see a rapid deterioration in sentiment, and a seemingly over-night repricing of risk. At the moment, risk is being underpriced, and with markets near all-time highs, it could be a good time to position your portfolio for a large correction (Iran arms embargo ended yesterday, last presidential debate this Thursday, stimulus deadline/sell-the-news event looming Tuesday, earnings, election day 2 weeks away, etc., etc.) The next couple of weeks should be very exciting, so I hope you guys stick around for the action. I really appreciate your time today, and thanks so much for stopping by. Cheers, Michael If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research.
TVC:VIXLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World