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UVXY

[UVXY Volatility Matrix] Rule #1 of Charting: Haters Gon' Hate!People out here actin' like predicting the future is easy! I'm just on my grind layin down some novel trading ideas. Take it or leave it. UVXY definitely caught a right hook to the chin today but as I made clear in my new RSI Model idea, this type of melt down swing dip typically precedes a spike and it could be exactly what we're seeing here given a lot of data aligning for an EOM spike. Not expecting it next week either, higher odds the week after based on how things are shaping up. It's all laid out for ya in the related ideas. The magnitude and exact timing of the next spike is always the trickiest part but odds say we hit the mid-20's at least before EOM and HHs by mid-November (likely due to election chaos of some kind). I'm trying to map the future for you guys here, don't take this sht so seriously! There's more to life than money people. Happy to bide my time and take my learnings while dialing in my Crystal Ball B). Volatility Matrix Analysis Anyway, Volatility Matrix is looking MORE Bullish. We got Entry Windows today for UVXY and and VXX and even VXN (not depicted here) and a LL for UVXY and VIX with both a Small BUY and Large BUY for VVIX. Somethin is brewing here, we'll find out soon!
CBOE:UVXYLong
by ProfitHarvest
13
The obvious trade was NOT obvious on UVXYOn my last post about AMEX:UVXY I noted the distinct "trade of the week" theme. The idea that volatility would expand seemed to be obvious to everyone thus a trade on UVXY long seemed to be the play. Opportunity is rarely so obvious and that was why I suggested caution. The Trump tweet of last week probably got a lot of folks in the trade excited to see profit and be validated but it was short lived. In fact, in only served to bring UVXY to a technical level; the 50% retracement of the range it has been in for the last few weeks. Now things are not going well for the trade. I hate to see traders lose money but I hope they learn...
CBOE:UVXY
by norok
[UVXY] EMA Model EVOLVED: RSI Predicting a Spike Soon!When VPT as RSI crosses the line the model predicts a spike to occur shortly after. Anything near or under 30 will do for RSI... the deeper the better, 20 or less being ideal (right where we happen to be at today!). VPT as RSI is good to go at anything under 20. Given the spike prediction with this Price Action I suspect we may be in the middle of a swing dip that is a characteristic attribute before many big spikes. Think of it like the tide receding before the tidal wave. Let's see how it plays out! B)
CBOE:UVXYLong
by ProfitHarvest
1
[UVXY] Super Mario BRO$: Playin' For REAL Gold Coins Now! B)Here's what I'm expecting now based on how things have shaped up this week. I think those couple small bumps took some steam out the sails for a larger movement. Identified the new downtrend channel. Adjusted BUY window... was a bit early to the party! Couple you guys out there were right, here we are under $18.50 haha. Basically just aligned this chart with my previous VVIX idea... 2+2=$$$ Lookin like a week or so of climb and chop before we get what we're lookin for. I don't think it'll get below $17, $16.50 is my new floor but we'd likely need some consistent big gains to get that low. See my SPX ideas for more. Public Service Announcement Guys TView software automatically slightly adjusted all my lines in that VVIX chart above and I just realized now that it got ruined, if you do heavy line charting I'd keep an eye out for your charts getting messed with and report immediately. It sucks to have all that work and months of tracking burned to the ground.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by ProfitHarvest
7
[UVXY] Volatility Matrix: Everything Still Lookin Quite Bullish!Got so caught up in SPX I neglected the Volatility Matrix! Haven't even peeked since my last post weeks ago but everything looking great still. We have Large BUYs on all 4 of these + VXN with only one of the 5 having any significant SELL signals, VIX, with a Small SELL and brief Short Entry Window (but still leaning pretty BULLISH overall). This suggests an even greater likelihood that volatility will spike soon and adds more supporting data to my generally BEARISH view of the markets right now.
CBOE:VXXLong
by ProfitHarvest
3
[VVIX] Holding Back UVXY Like it Bout to Brawl... WATCHOUT!VVIX is the reason UVXY is staying low, this 6M downtrend channel is very comfortable for Price Action but it is gradually grinding away into the long term horizontal supports as well as the 1.5Y upchannel which has the most Price Action by far of all the up and downchannels. VVIX can only go so low so the horizontal and uptrends have much more power in this dynamic meaning it's always the downtrend S/R that loses the battle. Right now the most powerful upchannel is merging into the most powerful downchannel and Price should spike upon breaking above these major S/R market wedges in addition to the falling wedge here, which is likely the catalyst leading into HH peaks after breaking above each ensuing market wedge after that. To add fuel to the fire, light blue is the strongest downtrend Core S/R and in this case acting as a powerful support to launch from as VVIX transitions from the downchannel to the upchannel. Inspired by Aug 16th OG idea:
VLong
by ProfitHarvest
1
UVXY is obvious"Everyone" is UVXY long. Rarely "Everyone" makes money. Tread lightly. The UVXY is the "ultra short VIX ETF"... it is a derivative of the VIX which is a derivative of SPY options which are a derivative of the SPY which is a derivative of the S&P 500 index. The VIX measures "implied volatility" which is the pricing of options. People want to buy options to hedge against uncertainty so when the DEMAND for options across the market is UP the VIX is up. If you go long UVXY you are taking a leveraged bet that volatility/uncertainty/fear will increase. I would say that "betting on volatility to increase going into the election" is a logical thought that most people are thinking right now. I don't like trading what "most people are thinking." I look at what everyone else is doing... and if I like the risk/reward... I do the opposite.
CBOE:UVXY
by norok
7
[VVIX] No One is Prepared for the VVIX Spike.. Will Launch UVXY!VVIX got caught on 6M downtrend S/R and has gone subterranean below Rock Bottom haha. VVIX down, SPX up and UVXY holding steady is terrifying for markets and fckin gold for volatility traders. The volatility markets are supposed to work roughly in tandem and when VVIX increases so will UVXY. Given historical Price Action a move to 120 would be a piece of cake here (let alone the potential upside beyond that) and launch volatility markets like crazy. As I've said repeatedly VVIX can not hold this low, it's VERY uncomfortable being below the falling wedge in these uncertain times and aching to snap back into a more comfortable range. VVIX spike will likely coincide with SPX getting rejected by Downtrend Peak Channel... Markets simply can't go much higher with VVIX this low already.
VLong
by ProfitHarvest
6
[UVXY] Wedging Hard at Top of Downchannel.. Just Waiting to POP!This is an insane wedge we're approaching here aside from the more immediate local downchannel and top of Value Channel (light blue) wedge, which should drive a small pop in the next few days. See how reactive this top of downchannel S/R is, price has both melted down from and up from this line 10% on a single 2H bar in the past two weeks. For the broader wedge we have the magenta Core S/R (strongest trend based on spike decay pattern) and the 6M downtrend S/R (we hit this about once every two months) converging with the very strong long term horizontal S/R (white) and the local Value Channel. I put an orange wall here on Oct. 21st, we're definitely spiking up before then.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by ProfitHarvest
6
[UVXY] UVXY Not Impressed: Calling BS on This LIMP Rally!UVXY barely shifted down despite a massive rally, it is calling BS on the SPX and suggesting increased volatility next week. It was rejected by the Value Range channel (light blue) and closed right on top of the local downchannel (yellow). The convergence of these two should make for a pretty strong support into next week. I widened the target sell window too, will necessarily be shooting for the backhalf now but a peak early to mid Oct still inline with expectations.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by ProfitHarvest
4
[UVXY] Down Channel Breakout Confirmed: Let's Pick Some TPs!If you were following along, you had plenty of time to loadup in my green box. Now the spike is in motion and we need to shift from scaling in strategy to our scaling out strategy. The top two TPs laid out from the last spike are still valid, $27.50 and $30. I'll probably start my scaling out at $30. Beyond that, white at $33, green around $35 are both great and if it gets to the top of my red box in $37-$40 range I'll dump it all. Good luck, lets see how this shapes up tomorrow! Looking massively bullish so far with that flat-top green boner today.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by ProfitHarvest
5
[UVXY] Crawling on the Down Channel Floor... 2H MEGAPHONE!Bounced off the top 3x and touched the floor 3x... seems like a decent megaphone we got goin here. My shot at a spike this week was off, next target is white and yellow convergence on the 22nd. Looks like we'll have a few more good buy opp days now and push the end of the BUY window. If you scroll back you'll notice that when Price first touched the white line it took off... I expect something similar this time too. Since this is leveraged it is possible to break through the white line and bounce off the channel bottom one final time before taking off and breaking to the upside of the megaphone but I still think 19 will hold pretty well. If get a swing dip before the spike, it may go as low as green ~$18 before taking off.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by ProfitHarvest
7
09/16/2020 VIX update [UVXY]Today I've noticed two bullish confirmation which gives a high probability of trend reversal. 1. Hammer candle - This shows buyers start to take control over shorts, confirms 19 areas successfully acted as support. 2. Green volume picked up - buyers are increasing, another confirmation that many traders believe 19 is bottom. We may see a reversal from here, the conservative target is 30. **Trade with probability, hammer, and volume give higher chance, they are not guaranteed.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by aparkon
3