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UVXY

[UVXY] Volatility Matrix: Looks Like We May Have Hit Bottom!Today may have been just the turning point we were lookin for to precede a volatilty spike taking off later this week. Right now the model is only marginally more bullish than Neutral but is the last place we were looking for near term confirms as the bigger picture is still quite bullish for volatility. At the 2H this turn has only just begun so it is only weak signals right now but if this does turn into a spike then we may have found quite the little formula for getting in early. Signals from Weakest to Strongest: LL: 1 x UVXY, 2 x VXN, 2 x VIX BUY Window: 5 x UVXY, 1 x VVIX SB: 1 x UVXY Still looking for more SB's and especially LB's to really confirm another up breakout but everything is leanin in the right direction now after today. UVXY chart is all fcked looking at this view haha, I'll break out the new structural S/R channels there separately (also more bullish after today!).
CBOE:UVXYLong
by ProfitHarvest
2
Profit Playbook: How to Harvest Spikes in the Volatility Mines!Ok guys, same playbook as last spike. I laid down our uptrend and downtrend yellow lines. Today we broke under the uptrend after ending yesterday right in the middle. Price should gravitate back up and retest the downtrend to ultimately break above. Breaking above the yellow downtrend and especially above the yellow uptrend is a strong entry signal. I scaled in quite a bit today as we're quite possibly at the LL for this run but it is riskier without the proper entry confirms. Basically any news this weekend could tank the market on Monday and very few bright spots but I'm shooting for our main breakout happening 15th or 16th along with FOMC. Very near term still looking Neutral, short term looking Long. Between $19.60 and $20.60 is Ultimate Value range for this spike but still doubt we see a close in this range on the 1D. Just more delicious load up opportunity if it does fall in there. $19.60 is gonna be tough to break under and even tougher to break under the $19 white line. Big Money made a bit of a comeback yesterday (and maybe today too? Still waiting on data) but not much, just enough to keep things feisty and assist Retail in propping up the market. Our Golden Ratio got caught right on the 6M downtrend S/R and seems to be holding the mid-channel pretty well, closer the the upper half: If it had closed under, we'd probably be looking at more volatility downside (at least to that mid-channel support it carved out today) but even just closing at this S/R means we're likely to see upside next week as it reclaims/retests above S/R. Happy harvests! B)
CBOE:UVXYLong
by ProfitHarvest
5
[UVXY] If You Were Following Along, You Def Made Some $$$!I gave up on a gold color TP and switched to purple. The first 2 TPs were when this spike first started and will now act as decent S/R for the drop back down. The next 2 TPs were our revised targets in case we blew past the first ones (good thing we were prepared!). We hit TP 3 and 4 Sep 3rd and then TP 4 again Sep 4th, which really would mean scalping this top almost perfectly. You could even sell another chunk at TP 3 again on the way back down depending on your scaling out strategy. As predicted, crossing the magenta line (core 6M S/R) was very likely to create a bigger spike, it was a fantastic final buy opportunity signal before switching to selling strategy. I dulled out the old supports but left them there for reference purposes and added a single new downchannel. This will take us right to TP 1 and 2 S/R where the drop will slow and we'll grind down to my green box there where we can load up for the next spike. We'll dial that in more precisely as we get closer! Also, we will almost certainly see $30 again before we see a close below $19. Volatility Matrix (UVXY/VXN/VIX/VVIX): All signs pointing to SELL Channel of Profit (VIX/VXX): All signs pointing to substantially increased chances of volatility Golden Volatility Ratio (VIX/VVIX): Ratio has reclaimed it's mid May to Mid July supports Happy harvests! B) PS: We may get one more brief volatility spike on Tuesday so keep an eye on those TPs but ultimately it will grind back down.
CBOE:UVXY
by ProfitHarvest
7
[UVXY 2H] Volatility Treasure Map: New Upchannel to Pot of Gold!Ok guys, found the upchannel line from last bottom, it appears Price is sticking to this line for now. It may break under but $21 should catch and hold it. It won't go above the magenta core support line either and when it does, it means we're likely spiking up already and have a lot of upside left. So Price just wedging between both yellow and purple and magenta right now and given the climate and the fact that Big Money has already packed their bags and went on holiday, it's almost certain this will break to the upside when it does. Based on this and the fact that $21 held really well, even as the market climbed back rapidly, I'm thinking it's unlikely we get under $21 now. I already started scaling in a bit for the next spike since predicted max downside is $19. Anything in the purple former TP channel, between $21 and $23, is good value here but technically anything under magenta is still a good play. Volatility Matrix: Looking mostly Neutral here, we got small BUYs on UVXY and VIX but VXN and VVIX are still holding previous SELL signals. The $$$ Ratio (VIX/VVX): This is actually lookin pretty bullish, holding to the top half of the Channel of Profit, lookin for a break above. The Golden Ratio (VIX/VVIX): Still holding at May-July supports, given the lowering liquidity, this is a bullish signal as well. VVIX/SPX: Sticking to uptrend, bullish VIX/SPX: Holding June floor support well, getting wedged down by 6M downtrend, will break within two weeks, likely up. *All above ideas linked below for reference* Overall definitely long here but the next week should be pretty quiet. Will mostly have my eye on the Volatility Matrix for identifying the start of the next spike. Happy harvests! B)
CBOE:UVXYLong
by ProfitHarvest
37
[UVXY] Nostradamus Sht... Better Hope You Weren't Sleepin on Me!Just as predicted Price skyrocketed after breaking through the core purple S/R. Getting through that line was always gonna take a nice pullback. Without a pullback we woulda stayed under and ground back down. The is my first real time spike analysis so really refining things still but my data is indicating we still have some upside here although we've probably covered 80% of this spike already. That local yellow S/R convergence with the green downtrend S/R will likely be the max upside here. Maybe we get up to that next white line but seems unlikely, breaking above it even more unlikely. Overall given the higher liquidity environment and nature of patterns I still expect this to be the lowest HH of the next three volatility spikes... So I'm not expecting too much more upside here and am already taking more profits and probably lookin to exit mostly tomorrow, maybe save a bit for next week in case something wild happens but we will definitely see some substantial retrace next week so don't get greedy! Also my volatility divergence idea last night nailed this pullback.
CBOE:UVXY
by ProfitHarvest
11
[UVXY] Volatility Matrix: We May Still Have Some Running Room!So far all the BUY calls are holding. This could change rapidly in the middle of a peak and we may have even hit the peak already but I dialed into the 2H here to give us a solid microcosm perspective. I think we have some upside left but that it is limited and that we are near the peak for this spike so anytime is good cashout range. I've only scaled out a small portion of my position so far and plan to take out most and maybe all tomorrow depending on how things shape up. Lets see how much icing we can lick off this cake! B) OG Idea:
CBOE:UVXY
by ProfitHarvest
[UVXY] Microcosm Analysis: Continue Up or Retrace?UVXY is far above the previous structures that predicted this breakout (now dulled out) and I added a new uphcannel. My original TP 2 (top gold line) is also a decent S/R which is why price has had to grind so hard to climb and stay above it. Now we are marching up the bottom side of the recent upchannel straight to the purple line. Breaking above this would be bullish and at this point likely in tandem with a large SPX pullback. If SPX can hold on, Price should retrace a bit before a bigger explosion later. Either way we're very likely breaking above this core S/R (magenta) when Price hits it, just a matter of when at this point (sometime this month almost certainly). I'm hoping for some new SPX highs so we get some retrace and another good reload opp before sht hits the fan and UVXY goes through the roof but could pop any second.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by ProfitHarvest
7
[VXX/UVXY] My Wildest Volatility Ratio Chart Yet!Was just playin around with VXX and stumbled upon something neat... I don't fully understand what a VXX/UVXY ratio means exactly yet but boy I see many consistent patterns here and one epic divergence that we're in right now! Also always remember to check out DIX: squeezemetrics.com It hasn't been this limp since early 2018, when the first Correction of this megaphone pattern we're in hit. The Divergence area of GEX/DIX is greater than anything we've seen previously aside from again late '17 early '18 and this while shorter in time is far more divergent. We're quite possibly in the midst of a blowoff top on this massive 6M wedge. Just some friendly weather data from your local Stock Farmer B).
CBOE:VXXShort
by ProfitHarvest
2
VIX: UVXY: Higher Volatility in SeptemberVIX and UVXY have shown higher activity in September. Although, historically, we are still at very low levels of volatility, that may change approaching the election. VIX and UVXY are derivative measures of volatility that are moving, in general, in opposite direction to SPX500. However, during times of uncertainty, like upcoming election, VIX and UVXY may remain elevated while the markets are still moving higher. Choppy action in the market price movement is anticipated. Technical levels: Based on Fibonacci extensions of the most recent move down, from $33.50 to $18.50, next potential upside targets for UVXY are $24.69 (38.2%), $26.43 (50%), and $28.17 (61.8%). These levels are largely dependent on the actual price movement of the SPX500 index, and can be used as a guideline only. One hour chart shows that we are approaching 38.2% Fib level with RSI and MACD chart close to near-term overbought readings, with some negative divergence between the price and volume. This pattern may be indicative of a pull back or consolidation in VIX and a higher move up on SPX500 chart. However, a four hour chart presented here, shows RSI and volume levels creeping higher then levels seen in July and August with more room to go toward considerably higher levels observed in June, when UVXY was trading at $45-$50. As it is difficult to place a price target on a derivative index, a trend is up, based on 4 hr MACD and RSI charts.
CBOE:UVXY
by tradexchart
[UVXY] Breakout Call Last Week Confirmed: More Upside to Come?The little yellow line microcosm analysis turned out very accurate. As soon as it closed above the yellow uptrend it continued upward and is just being held by the purple S/R now and exactly at my TP. From here we could see it wedge back down some but we have strong potential for an SPX pullback that will spike this thing through the roof. Lets see if it can reach my max upside prediction (red box). If it closes above the purple line, chances are high!
CBOE:UVXYLong
by ProfitHarvest
3
Investors Are Getting Smarter?There are fewer bears and bulls left in the ballroom. The last few bears are struggling hard to survive since the SPY price is breaking record everyday but VIX does not fall quite much. In the chart, there are lower resisting points but VIX/UVXY are trying hard not to touch them. RSI has higher lows no matter which timeframe you're looking from. and VIX ETFs all have an extended tip at the end like a forked tongue of a snake lol. It's exploring anything and anywhere for the next step. I guess that's why bears don't wanna give up and bulls are holding tight to squeeze out the last few pennies from the bears' pocket. Can't imagine what happens when the Fed loosens their hands. Or, our investors are smarter that we all put our eggs in different baskets so both sides are hovering till one runs out of bucks first.
CBOE:UVXY
by One-World
4
[UVXY 3D] Best Case Treasure Map.. What If it Blows Past my TPs?You can see my very conservative small TPs there. That's mostly just extra caution due to the high liquidity environment we have. I'm expecting bigger volatility spikes in October and November. In the event things get crazy though I don't want to leave you hanging. Each line is a great TP point as these are the points Price is most likely to react at. I really don't think it'd get over that white $32.50 S/R even in best case but who the fck knows right? Last spike in June doubled from $27 to $50 in a week but liquidity was much lower then.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by ProfitHarvest