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UVXY

THE WEEK AHEAD: ROKU EARNINGS; GDXJ; VXX, UVXYA real quick and dirty here between checking off items on the honey-do list ... . Here's the cream of the crop: ROKU (83/94) announces earnings on Wednesday after market close and with rank/implied greater than 70/50, it's an ideal play for volatility contraction post-announcement. The pictured setup is a September 20th 75/80/135/140 iron condor, paying 1.67 at the mid price (one-third the width of the wings). Look to take profit at 50% max (.83/$83 assuming a mid price fill). Taking the top spot again this week for rank/implied among the exchange-traded funds is GDXJ (92/37) with the >70% probability of profit September 20th 36/45 short strangle paying 1.31 (.75/$75 at 50% max) and delta/theta metrics of 2.02/3.16. Lastly, with the pop in volatility last week, consider a bearish assumption play in either VXX or UVXY (i.e., either short call verticals or long put verticals) with the short leg in the money, the long out and that pays at least one-third of your spread in credit (or for which you have to pay less than two-thirds the width in debit). For example, the VXX Sept 20th 25/27 short call vertical is paying .67 at the mid price with a break even at 25.67. Conversely, the VXX Sept 25/27 long put vertical costs 1.36 to put on with a 25.64 break even and a max profit potential similar to that of the same-strike short call vertical (.64/$64). For the bolder at heart, the VXX Sept 22/24 long put vertical costs .95 to put on, making it a risk one/make proposition on the notion that volatility implodes fairly quickly back to its pre-pop levels, taking the VIX derivatives with it.
NASDAQ:ROKU
by NaughtyPines
SPX500 - Bearish Views and Expanded FlatsIt's cliché to be a stock market bear these days but I find it healthy to attempt to do so so long as there is a wave count and reference level one can stick to. Turning to the chart, it appears we are struggling to break through to new highs in the $3,000+ area. This could suggest one of two things: (1) as shown in yellow, that the entire move up from the Christmas Low is a wave B of an expanded flat requiring another retest of the Low; or (2) as shown in green, that the move up from the June low is a wave B of an expanded flat requiring a significant drop in order to push to new ATHs in the short-term. *Assuming the U.S. Index is bearish* (by staying under 3005) we would know the severity of the drop to be expected at around the 2666 level. This setup has been triggered on the 4H by what appears to be a running ABC correction pictured below.
FX:SPX500Short
by futuresfix
1
SP500 Idea before July 31st Rate Cut?It sure looks like the Fed is looking to cut interest rates for the July 31st meeting. But how can it do such a thing if the market is making new highs....that would not make any sense. So Here is my idea. Lets see if I am correct. In the next few days...IMO....I think that the SP500 is going to move up to the neck line of this possible inverse head and shoulders pattern. I think it will reach approximately the 3020 range before swiftly moving down until the Fed cuts rates on July 31st. That's it. I am not sure how deep it wil go but it could be possibly one heck of a TVIX play. This is just an idea for you to ponder.
TVC:SPXShort
by SalN
5
UVXY: Long term Buy opportunity.The ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF is approaching the April bottom and the symmetrical Lower Low on the 1M Falling Wedge. Being oversold (RSI = 6.651, MACD = -1698.076) a strong cyclical rebound is expected on a very structured and recurring candle pattern. We are on a long term buy on UVXY with TP = 75.00. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by InvestingScope
2
Range Trade With High Risk Reward, Lot's Of Potential Catalysts Retail Sales posted abysmal numbers National Emergency declared S&P500 due for a reversal China U.S relations worst in recent memory with the arrest of Huawei CFO U.S. industrial production fell in January for the first time in eight months Something has to give. I'm using some intuition with this trade, just have a good feeling about it, especially considering the political environment. Also, I like how it is at the bottom of it's short term range I like the technical component too. Even though TVIX erodes due to contango, this level has still shown to be resilient. The range is beautiful, with potential upside of 10%+. Only buying 1/2, will fill on momentum or on a pullback to either bump out or reduce average. This is a risky trade though
TLong
by InteractiveSwingTrading
26
Buy VolI am a believer that this bear market is not over. seems unlikely to me that the longest Bull market is followed by the shortest Bear market (I stole that). Since the advent of QE and massive Central Bank stimulus programs Volatility has been suppressed significantly. Technically the VIX volatility index at ~$18 is a buy in my books. Got in last week just below 18 and am looking for capitulation to sell into. It just seems hard to believe that the Vol we saw in December was the last of it... Good place to add hedges if you are of the opinion risk assets are going higher as well. As major Equity indices are now sitting at a significant resistance level and have shown signs of weakness this seems like a pretty good risk/reward play right here. I expressed my long through Options (fighting Theta).
CBOE:VIXLong
by skyman9025
SP500 December 6thJust an idea but the pattern looks like we have just started the larger C wave down. Today was a smaller wave 1 drop and then it appears that we also had the beginning of wave 2 back up. If this is indeed the correct pattern then we will have a lot further to drop. I am looking at possibly dropping down to the 2015 highs. OR Dow 18,500. There is a weekly 200 MA and Monthly 50 MA at approximately the same area which coincidentally lines up with a nice end to a 3rd wave down. And I am thinking that the 3rd wave bottoms on the day of the FED meeting. But have no fear, this is not the real big one that you may have heard me and many others talk about. This will be significant, and we are due for it cyclically speaking. Actually, we are kind of late for this cycle so the drop can be swift. Big gains Short?? I am going to chance it. GL with your trades.
SP:SPXShort
by SalN
5
Exclamation Points for the End of Oversold Trading ConditionsAbove the 40 (November 7, 2018) – Exclamation Points for the End of Oversold Trading Conditions November 8, 2018 by Dr. Duru AT40 = 40.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 37.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 16.4 Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary Financial markets made their votes very clear after the U.S. 2018 midterm election. Apparently, today’s rally in the S&P 500 (SPY) was the index’s largest one-day post midterm election rally since 1982. This exclamation of a data point does not take into account the gains (or losses) preceding the big day, but I suppose an extreme reaction makes sense on the heels of what was an extreme struggle with oversold conditions that included a declining 200-day moving average (DMA) for the first time in 2 1/2 years. {The S&P 500 (SPY) gapped up and soared 2.1% with a bullish breakout above 200DMA resistance. The index closed right at the peak following the first oversold period in October.} The S&P 500 closed at its high of the day, broke out above its 200DMA, and sliced through the 2800 level that proved so important starting in June (see the dark horizontal line in the above chart). The index is in a bullish position and looks ready to challenge its downward sloping 50DMA resistance directly overhead. The index will only flag the “all clear” after it finishes reversing all its losses from the big 50DMA breakdown that launched the market’s struggles with oversold trading conditions. The NASDAQ and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) also gapped into 200DMA breakouts, adding to the market-wide exclamation points. Both tech-laden indices still have considerable headroom before challenging the first post-oversold high in October. {The NASDAQ surged 2.6% and sliced right through 200DMA resistance.} {The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) gained 1.3% after opening with a gap up that perfectly coincided with 200DMA resistance.} The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) lagged the bigger indices with a 1.8% gain. Small caps have the biggest challenge ahead as downtrending 50 and 200DMAs converge to provide what should prove to be stiff resistance. I am holding my core position of call options that I accumulated during the oversold period in anticipation of a rally into resistance by the end of next week. {The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) did not cross any critical technical milestones with its 1.8% gain. Still the rally confirmed the current upward momentum.} The volatility index, the VIX, featured prominently in my oversold trading strategy. The last tranche worked out spectacularly with one of the loudest exclamation points for this post-oversold period. I was focused on a post-election volatility implosion (again, without any prediction on the specifics of the outcome), and the market delivered. The VIX collapsed 17.8% and effectively reversed ALL its gains since the first oversold period began. This milestone is another bullish development. With a Federal Reserve pronouncement on monetary policy coming the next day, I did not want to take the risk of holding overnight my ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY) put options which expire in just two days. In the near-term, I expect volatility gains to be more short-lived than during the oversold periods, so I am ready to continue fading the VIX. {The volatility index, the VIX, lost 17.8% on the day. It is perched right at a critical juncture with almost a month of gains from oversold churn now lost.} {The ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY) lost 10.7%, a much smaller loss than I would have expected given the size of the VIX’s loss.} As I wrote in the last Above the 40 post, long-term passive index investors should now feel comfortable returning to their regularly scheduled programming (a break of the oversold lows would change things of course). In the coming days, weeks, and months there will be a blitz of narratives and attempts to back into explanations of the market’s on-going machinations. The mid-term elections are over, but the same catalysts that the market has alternatively ignored and then obsessed over this year are largely still in place. This dynamic will provide plenty of fodder for distracting chatter that will open up short-term trading opportunities (swing trades) in what I expect to be an overall bullish trading environment through at least the end of the year. AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40DMAs, soared today from 31.2% to 40.5% in a resounding confirmation of the bullish end to oversold trading conditions. AT40 rocketed off its historic low and kept slicing higher after the last oversold period ended. Even the conservative oversold trading strategy that triggers buys after the oversold period ends would have worked like a wonder. Note that between 40 and 60%, AT40’s level matters a lot less as it will be off the lower and upper extremes. {AT40 (T2108) is now a rocketship shining the path higher for the stock market. It closed at a 5-week high and wiped away all its October losses.} AT200 (T2107), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs, remains important as it still bears the scars of all the technical damage done through the two oversold periods in October. AT200 closed at 37.4% and has yet to pass its high following the first October oversold period. This longer-term breadth indicator still has a LONG way to go to wipe out October’s damaging losses. {AT200 (T2107) printed a V-bottom from the epic lows of the last oversold period, but it is far from repairing the technical damage from October.} The Australian dollar (FXA) versus the Japanese yen (FXY) is confirming the bullish tone with flashing green lights. AUD/JPY has rocketed right past the previous high. I ended my hedge going short the currency pair and will soon flip to ride the tiger (I also want to collect the carry and not pay it anymore!) {AUD/JPY is in full bull mode as it has already sliced through resistance from its downtrending 200DMA and the previous highs.}
SP:SPXLong
by drduru