Get started

UVXY

THE WEEK AHEAD: BIDU EARNINGS; GDXJ, EEM, VIX/VXX/UVXYEARNINGS BIDU (97/55) announces earnings on Monday after market close, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of the New York session ... . Pictured here is a September 80/120 short strangle paying 1.65 as of Friday close with delta/theta metrics of 1.57/8.07. You can naturally go defined risk, but you'll have to go in a smidge tighter with the shorts to collect one-third the width of the wings and being surgical with your strikes will be tough with 5-wides in that expiry. The September 20th 80/85/110/115 is paying 1.62 with delta/theta metrics of .26/3.20. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS Precious metals keep on grinding in a high implied volatility state for yet another week, with the ideal rank/implied metrics remaining in GDXJ and nearly ideal ones in GDX: GLD (80/16) GDXJ (77/38) SLV (77/25) TLT (76/17) GDX (72/33) BROAD MARKET EFA (53/17) EEM (52/22) IWM (36/22) SPY (35/18) QQQ (27/22) Since I don't have anything on in EEM, I may consider putting on something longer-dated there. Using the delta neutral at-the-money short straddle test and looking for a setup that pays greater than 10% of the value of the underlying, it looks like I would have to go out to January where the 40 short straddle is paying 4.54 versus 39.54 the shares were trading at as of Friday close. The January 17th 40 short straddle pays 4.54 with break evens at 35.46/44.54 and has delta/theta metrics of 1.96/1.13 and a 25 max of 1.13; the 16 delta 34/44 short strangle pays 1.05 (.52 at 50 max) with break evens of 32.05/45.05 and delta/theta metrics of -.15/.86. I'm fine with either, but there's something to be said for having room to adjust without going inverted with the short strangle. VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES VIX finished Friday at 18.47 with the /VX term structure still in backwardation from September to December, with the August contract settling next week. I will continue to look to add at-the-money bearish assumption setups (short call verticals or long put verticals) in VIX in the front month (September) should we get additional pops to >20 and/or the same type of setup in UVXY and VXX using VIX levels as a guide. As of Friday close, the VIX September 18th 18/21 short call vertical was paying 1.10 at the mid with a break even of 19.10 versus 18.47 spot, but will probably wait for another pop to >20 to put on a similar setup.* * -- Short call verticals: short in the money, long out of the money, paying one-third the width of the spread. Long put verticals: short out of the money, long in the money, paying less than one-third the width in debit. Short call verticals with the same strikes as a long put vertical have the same risk, so it's a matter of taste and/or the practicalities of having a bunch of different plays on in the same expiry as to which you use. For example, you can layer on same strike long put verticals over short call verticals without inadvertently "stepping on" the short call verticals you have on. As compared to VIX options -- which settle to cash, with UVXY and VXX, there's naturally some assignment risk, so I lean toward short call verticals in those particular instruments, since I'd rather be short shares if assigned.
NASDAQ:BIDU
by NaughtyPines
5 Reasons to be bullish on $UVXY 1. SPY is at record highs and... I am watching for topping signs or softening to show... 2. There is enough sh!@#$%^t going in the world to foresee something triggering a bad market reaction soon! (Global economy slowing down, Several trade wars, possible hard Brexit, Deutsche Bank issues, Iran tensions... just to name a few...) 3. The FED won't cut rates by more than 25bp this week. The market might be disappointed. Even if the FED start a dovish cycle with multiple rate cuts, it is a sign of weakness not strength of the economy. 4. The VIX is low. It has been lower but $12 is low. 5. Gold has made a good rally in recent months (even though I am currently, very short term, bearish on gold). It may know something we don't... I won't commit to it until I see softening of the SPY but I sure keep my eyes on it... I'll update this post when I start a position... The above are only my opinions and is not trading advice. This is just something to get you thinking... an idea, THAT'S ALL! I am not responsible nor liable for any financial losses you may incur following my ideas. Also know that leveraged ETFs such as UVXY carry additional risks. READ the prospectus! Do your own analysis and due diligence PLEASE!
CBOE:UVXYLong
by adventurous51
1
THE WEEK AHEAD: ROKU EARNINGS; GDXJ; VXX, UVXYA real quick and dirty here between checking off items on the honey-do list ... . Here's the cream of the crop: ROKU (83/94) announces earnings on Wednesday after market close and with rank/implied greater than 70/50, it's an ideal play for volatility contraction post-announcement. The pictured setup is a September 20th 75/80/135/140 iron condor, paying 1.67 at the mid price (one-third the width of the wings). Look to take profit at 50% max (.83/$83 assuming a mid price fill). Taking the top spot again this week for rank/implied among the exchange-traded funds is GDXJ (92/37) with the >70% probability of profit September 20th 36/45 short strangle paying 1.31 (.75/$75 at 50% max) and delta/theta metrics of 2.02/3.16. Lastly, with the pop in volatility last week, consider a bearish assumption play in either VXX or UVXY (i.e., either short call verticals or long put verticals) with the short leg in the money, the long out and that pays at least one-third of your spread in credit (or for which you have to pay less than two-thirds the width in debit). For example, the VXX Sept 20th 25/27 short call vertical is paying .67 at the mid price with a break even at 25.67. Conversely, the VXX Sept 25/27 long put vertical costs 1.36 to put on with a 25.64 break even and a max profit potential similar to that of the same-strike short call vertical (.64/$64). For the bolder at heart, the VXX Sept 22/24 long put vertical costs .95 to put on, making it a risk one/make proposition on the notion that volatility implodes fairly quickly back to its pre-pop levels, taking the VIX derivatives with it.
NASDAQ:ROKU
by NaughtyPines
SPX500 - Bearish Views and Expanded FlatsIt's cliché to be a stock market bear these days but I find it healthy to attempt to do so so long as there is a wave count and reference level one can stick to. Turning to the chart, it appears we are struggling to break through to new highs in the $3,000+ area. This could suggest one of two things: (1) as shown in yellow, that the entire move up from the Christmas Low is a wave B of an expanded flat requiring another retest of the Low; or (2) as shown in green, that the move up from the June low is a wave B of an expanded flat requiring a significant drop in order to push to new ATHs in the short-term. *Assuming the U.S. Index is bearish* (by staying under 3005) we would know the severity of the drop to be expected at around the 2666 level. This setup has been triggered on the 4H by what appears to be a running ABC correction pictured below.
FX:SPX500Short
by futuresfix
1
SP500 Idea before July 31st Rate Cut?It sure looks like the Fed is looking to cut interest rates for the July 31st meeting. But how can it do such a thing if the market is making new highs....that would not make any sense. So Here is my idea. Lets see if I am correct. In the next few days...IMO....I think that the SP500 is going to move up to the neck line of this possible inverse head and shoulders pattern. I think it will reach approximately the 3020 range before swiftly moving down until the Fed cuts rates on July 31st. That's it. I am not sure how deep it wil go but it could be possibly one heck of a TVIX play. This is just an idea for you to ponder.
TVC:SPXShort
by SalN
5
UVXY: Long term Buy opportunity.The ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF is approaching the April bottom and the symmetrical Lower Low on the 1M Falling Wedge. Being oversold (RSI = 6.651, MACD = -1698.076) a strong cyclical rebound is expected on a very structured and recurring candle pattern. We are on a long term buy on UVXY with TP = 75.00. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by InvestingScope
2
Range Trade With High Risk Reward, Lot's Of Potential Catalysts Retail Sales posted abysmal numbers National Emergency declared S&P500 due for a reversal China U.S relations worst in recent memory with the arrest of Huawei CFO U.S. industrial production fell in January for the first time in eight months Something has to give. I'm using some intuition with this trade, just have a good feeling about it, especially considering the political environment. Also, I like how it is at the bottom of it's short term range I like the technical component too. Even though TVIX erodes due to contango, this level has still shown to be resilient. The range is beautiful, with potential upside of 10%+. Only buying 1/2, will fill on momentum or on a pullback to either bump out or reduce average. This is a risky trade though
TLong
by InteractiveSwingTrading
26
Buy VolI am a believer that this bear market is not over. seems unlikely to me that the longest Bull market is followed by the shortest Bear market (I stole that). Since the advent of QE and massive Central Bank stimulus programs Volatility has been suppressed significantly. Technically the VIX volatility index at ~$18 is a buy in my books. Got in last week just below 18 and am looking for capitulation to sell into. It just seems hard to believe that the Vol we saw in December was the last of it... Good place to add hedges if you are of the opinion risk assets are going higher as well. As major Equity indices are now sitting at a significant resistance level and have shown signs of weakness this seems like a pretty good risk/reward play right here. I expressed my long through Options (fighting Theta).
CBOE:VIXLong
by skyman9025
SP500 December 6thJust an idea but the pattern looks like we have just started the larger C wave down. Today was a smaller wave 1 drop and then it appears that we also had the beginning of wave 2 back up. If this is indeed the correct pattern then we will have a lot further to drop. I am looking at possibly dropping down to the 2015 highs. OR Dow 18,500. There is a weekly 200 MA and Monthly 50 MA at approximately the same area which coincidentally lines up with a nice end to a 3rd wave down. And I am thinking that the 3rd wave bottoms on the day of the FED meeting. But have no fear, this is not the real big one that you may have heard me and many others talk about. This will be significant, and we are due for it cyclically speaking. Actually, we are kind of late for this cycle so the drop can be swift. Big gains Short?? I am going to chance it. GL with your trades.
SP:SPXShort
by SalN
5