UVXY price, RSI divergence ON Daily chart, oversold zoneYesterday, at $11, UVXY SHOWED a price and RSI divergence on daily trendline... yet, another shortsqueeze brewing!
UVXY
TVIX BEARISH --- Breaks Through SupportThe support curve created during the initial volatility spike has finally had a clear breakthrough. We can finally expect the VIX to continue back down towards its usual levels. Hopefully this means the market will regain some ground as well.
This downthrust is completely expected after DIA and SPY broke through their resistance since the recent crash. We are back in action.
Market BULLISH --- Breakthrough of ResistanceSince the peak of DIA back in early 2018, a very clear resistance curve has been formed with one solid redirection, and two nearby rejections. Things are finally looking good.
With this breakthrough, a new support curve has been developed which appears to remain very strong. However, the curve is extremely aggressive, so we can expect at some point soon a more passive curve to come into play. The curve drawn is a very short term support and you should not consider any downfalls through this curve too seriously.
Due to the breakthrough, this also means that market volatility should be continuing back down to its usual lows as the market is now in a bullish mentality. Leverages such as UVXY and TVIX will most likely continue to spiral downwards bringing great money for shorts.
TVIX Develops Converging TriangleAs you can see in the chart, TVIX continues to bounce back and forth off of the short term support and resistance. I am certainly leaning towards bearish behavior due to the short and long term resistance curve's strength. It has rejected upthrusts 4 times so far in the past month.
However, at some point the price will also begin to be challenged by the support curve as well. Up until this point I think it's safe to say you can expect the price to continue downwards.
TVIX Breaks Through Support - SHORTEXTREMELY BEARISH
As you can see in the circled section, the price broke through the long term support curve created back before the enormous jump.
You can expect the price to continue falling along the short term resistance curve (bottom orange line)
TVIX Futures - Pivotal PointAs you can see in the chart, TVIX has reached the point in which the short term resistance crosses with the long run support. What we see next will determine the next moves of TVIX's price. There are two possibilities to the future trends.
1) If the price drops below the support line prior to the intersection, we can expect extremely bearish behavior in the coming weeks. (Great to short)
2) If the price breaks through resistance prior to the intersection, we can expect extremely bullish behavior in the coming weeks, until the price meets the longer term resistance curve.
LONG SET UP UVXY (D)Nice long set up here and a good hedge to hold over the weekend. Triangle forming in this as well as underlying VXX. under 15 would allow for a very tight stop.
SP500 My perspective -start to presentI did this once before last year but I thought it is good once again to repost how I see the market, since inception in the early 1900's to today. From my perspective, we are nearing the completion of a supercycle 5th wave. And as you can see from the chart (which trading view does not go back to the beginning...see a historical chart if you want), supercycle wave 1 peaked just before the start of the 1929 crash and the great depression. Since then we have essentially been in a bull market with the exception of the 2000's which clearly appears to resemble a wave 4 correction. As you can see, what has been occurring since February isn't even noticeable. Next we will zoom in a little more to the weekly.
Although it appears cluttered...try to bear with me as I am not about to clean it up more just to satisfy your eyes.
Every once in a while I try to take a look at what I had going on and see if anything that I have learned over the last year or so may have changed my perspective. And the answer is yes....slightly. SO I will explain.
Moving right along. Take a look at the start of the supercycle 5th wave which began at the 2009 bottom. I believe this is a more accurate count. The blue wave 2 only has a little more than a .382% retracement. So that would mean that the 4th wave correction (for the blue count) Is going to be over .50% and likely reach the .618% retracement, whenever it tops. As you can see, I do not think we are there quite yet. I am thinking that may not happen until the middle of beginning or middle of 2020. When that does happen, as you can see, it will be severe. Why so severe. Because the higher we go, the more points the percentages equate to. So while the actual points drop may look similar to the 2008 - 2009 dump, the percentage is not as great. So while drawing/updating this chart, the time proportions and Fib price extentions appear to bring us into 2020. (The other reason is that I don't think the powers that be, who are behind the scenes in American and Global politics and world banking....Don't like Trump and they may trigger a market correction to try to knock him out of office. It would have to be scary and start several months before the 2020 election to scare people away from voting for him). But that's just a conspiracy theory. ;) also notice that you can barely make out the correction that started in February of this year. Kind of crazy isn't it.
Next I would like to zoom in even more to where I think we are now.
I put this sub wave 1 (orange) where I did because when I zoom in to the prior dip, it appears to me to only be wave 4 of 5. Either way, it does not really matter because the fib retracement for wave 2 is very shallow. Which means that the next correction is supposed to be deep (which we are experiencing now). And I do not think we are finished yet.
I zoom in even more.
As you can see, we haven't even broke the .50% retracement yet. If we stayed in the wedge, then we could break the .50% and that may be my first target. But I would not be surprised that we get a wick that drops into the .618% green box range. Then I think a great long position can be started.
For this next part....maybe I am wrong and we have already completed our a,b,c correction and are already starting into the final wave c drop. But that would mean that the 4th wave last a day and that just seemed too short. The reversal in price at the end of the day was interesting and we will see what happens over the next couple days to help tell the story.
and now the 5 minute. Good Luck
Volatility Developing "Morning Star" Pattern? - Bullish Futures?As you can see in the TVIX chart, it appears as if a "Morning Star" pattern may be developing in the 4hr chart. You may point out that there is no uptrend piece - which is crucial to a morning star pattern - but on the 1hr chart this uptrend is very prevalent.
Most Likely:
Volatility will begin bullish behavior until it reaches the resistance curve, and then continue downwards along this resistance. However, there is also the likelihood that the price breaks through the resistance.
As I have shown in previous charts, the pivotal moment is where support intersects with the short run resistance curve.
What Can Happen:
1) If the price falls below the intersection we can expect volatility to continue decreasing along the resistance curve.
2) If the price breaks through and lies above the intersection, we can expect bullish behavior along the support curve as volatility increases. This option may also predict some unsettlement in the market.
Volatility Breaks Through SupportAfter the predicted downfall I previously posted, TVIX has officially broken through the support curve from late 2017.
This is BIG news...
You can expect volatility to continue plummeting to it's traditional resistance patterns and you can also expect the market to continue on it's upward trend before all of this talk of trade war. Welcome back.
How to use the Moving Average Convergence ModelThe "Moving Average Convergence Model," also known as the "MACD Model," is one of the most widely used indicators for trading endeavors. It consists of two lines representing the short term and long term moving averages. The blue line represents the 12 day short term moving average or SMA for short. Likewise, the orange line represents the 26 day long term moving average or LMA for short.
As shown in the chart, the SMA recently confirmed it's drop below the LMA. This drop displays that in the short run, the stock's price has moved below the long run average. Knowing this, you can imply that the support level has been broken and the asset will begin its decent in price.
In the past, you can observe how when the orange line is above the blue line, the price plummets. And while the blue line is above the orange line, the stock price increases.
To Get Started With MACD:
1) Head to your chart and hit the "Indicators" tab in the top middle.
2) Type "MACD" in the search bar
3) Start off with the original one at the top, as you become more advanced with the indicator you can pick and choose a better option for you
Typical Intervals May Be:
- 12:26 (typical interval)
- 13:34 (for very short term trading)
long volatility ideaFor an equity that has declined 90% a year since inception this years trend is very unusual. Look for a bounce off the trend-line and maybe a run to the higher fib extension levels.
Market Volatility -- Back On TrackAfter much talk of trade bans, trade wars, and other wall street killers, the markets appear to be steadying out again. TVIX, the 2x Leverage for the volatility index has also gone back on track from it's original decline. As displayed, the resistance line has rejected the upthrust on multiple occasions which has proven to be beneficial.
Although the price has fluctuated up and down, there has yet to be a full breakthrough which could lead to mayhem.
Yet another reason to be bearish on market futures!Amazing how there are so many reasons to be bearish here. I cannot imagine why anyone would be bullish. From a technical perspective, it is very obvious a major plunge is about to occur. =)
Another Reason To Be Bearish!On a hourly perspective, market futures are also bouncing off this trend line. A plunge below previous lows is imminent.
Stock Market CrashWe are currently in an escalating trade war with our top trading partner and the market is overvalued so I am convinced markets will plunge much lower than 2550 this week. I notice a head & shoulders pattern forming in futures, it looks like this is the right shoulder. It is a great time to short the market right now, I am already fully invested in short positions.
UVXY Daily UpdateUVXY - which essentially is a short-term VIX futures ETF, looks like wants to cross the 200 day and close above soon. Notes on chart.
I'm long this via UVXY 21 calls. Had a run up to 21 today and pulled back. Hopefully next week!
Another way to hedge against a falling market.
VIXY Volatility VIX Breakout or breakdown soonIt appears that volatility is preparing to breakout or breakdown soon. There is good reason for it due to the fear in the marketplace. Have investor fears reached their peak? Or are we just getting started? I think we will have the answer soon. On the price chart, it appears we have an ascending triangle. On the MACD, we have a symmetric triangle. The apex on the MACD lands on April 9.
I am fully expecting volatility to break upward. But the market overall is expecting this. What we think does not always happen. I still think odds point towards it, but either way, I expect we will know soon.
We can play volatility with ETFs like VIXY or 2x UVXY. When we expect volatility to go down there is SVXY but that fund has too much risk. It had over a 90% decline in February. Shorting SVXY could be an option if we expect volatility to go up, but my broker does not allow that. Does anyone know a broker that allows us to short SVXY?
Please share your thoughts and comments here.
RIPPLE AT FULL MOVE RETRACEMENT RANGESomething to gamble on if you want. How much lower can the thing go right. Stop is .35
SP500 spx spyThis is my best estimate. While we could possibly already be in the C wave down and finishing up on a minor wave 2....I am thinking that the FED may continue to do the same as before and prop the market up into the FOMC meeting on March 15th. This is just a guess. If that is the case then perhaps we can reach near the 2800 level again before starting a 5 wave drop. GL
SP 500 "weekly view"SO obviously we are in the supercycle 5th wave. Inside that, we are in the 3rd wave. Inside that 3rd wave we have just completed the smaller degree 4th wave (even thought it felt big) and are about to trek up for that smaller degree 5th and complete the larger 3rd wave. The drop for the larger 4th should be huge and impulsive just like this last drop. I was expecting an impulsive drop because of the wave 2 corrections being long and slow. So the same goes for this next drop. Timing it is not something I wish to really do right now, except that if the larger cycles are still about correct, then it could start with a September rate hike and end towards the end of the year. GL
