UVXY
TRADE IDEA: UVXY JUNE 17TH 10/13 SHORT PUT VERTICALSince I have a "virtual gaggle" of VXX trades on, I'm turning my attention to UVXY setups (in spite of its warts) to go long volatility here.
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 64%
Max Profit: $120/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $180/contract
Notes: The mid price for this setup is $115, but bid/ask is wide in this instrument, so I'd putz with a fill above mid, particularly since price may back into the setup from where it's currently at (17.03). Look to take the money and run at 50% max profit ($60/contract) should you get filled.
SOLD UVXY JUNE 17TH 9/12 SHORT PUT VERTICALDecided to layer on another UVXY short put vertical here, which I got filled for $100/contract ... .
$SPY - Updated Chart (Possible Bounce Targets)I think it's possible we see a bounce Monday at cash open, but doesn't have to. We have a double bottom at S3 on 1hr and filled the 206 gap. In conjunction with an accumulation pattern I see on UVXY, which has lower downside objective to meet, would support a SPY bounce Monday am.
I very much want to see a positive open to re-enter a UVXY call position I exited for 80% profit.
Fib levels provide upside targets for the bounce, but I'm thinking the 207.50 area. Either we just tank and never look back or slight bounce, then sell off.
World Index... Equities is in DangerI'm expecting a world equities market crash/correction soon. When the orange trendline breaks, the target is the lime trendline. When the lime trendline breaks, we are most likely headed for the 0.618 level.
Hedge the risk by going long volatility - be safe.
SPX/VIX 4/22/2016It seems to have been rejected by the primary downtrend line (purple) on 4/20/2016. We need to watch it closely.
SPY/VIX 4/22/2016It seems to have been rejected by the primary downtrend line (purple) on 4/20/2016. We need to watch it closely.
Amadeo Ratio 4/19/2016Use it with benevolence and love. Use it to pursue peace and serenity. Keep in mind that Doing cannot do much without Non-doing.
SPY/USO/VXX/GLD/SLV Ratio 4/18/2016 (Short-Term View)There is giant rising wedge forming. This ratio seems to indicate the aggregate perception of the US economy - the higher the better. As you can see in August 2015, there was a huge leg down which was unprecedented in this chart.
SPY/USO/VXX/GLD/SLV Ratio 4/18/2016 (All-Time View)There is giant rising wedge forming. This ratio seems to indicate the aggregate perception of the US economy - the higher the better. As you can see in August 2015, there was a huge leg down which was unprecedented in this chart.
SPX500 Symmetrical - 14 down days?Crucial resistance line. If it rejects, we could have several weeks of downside
SPY/VXX Ratio 4/18/2016 (Short-Term View)This is for you all stock market bears. Do not go short if this ratio keeps on breaking those resistance lines.
SPY/VXX Ratio 4/18/2016 (All-Time View)This is for you all stock market bears. Do not go short if this ratio keeps on breaking those resistance lines.
Inverse Gold/VIX Ratio 4/15/2016 (All-Time View)Watch the lines. This chart can guide you if you are pursuing the strategy of being long Gold/VIX, and this ratio dropping means you are winning.
S&P 500/VIX Ratio 4/15/2016 (Short-Term Non-Log View)Watch the lines for a good place to jump in if you are looking to long VIX. This chart helps us distinguish between fearless crashes and fearful crashes.
S&P 500/VIX Ratio 4/15/2016 (All-Time Non-Log View)Watch the lines for a good place to jump in if you are looking to long VIX. This chart helps us distinguish between fearless crashes and fearful crashes.
SPX/VIX Ratio 4/15/2016 (Short-term View)Instead of looking at SPX alone, looking at this ratio is better for shorting stocks/longing VIX, because it helps us distinguish between fearless crashes and fearful crashes. Watch the black/light blue/brown lines above. If this ratio breaks above those lines confidently, get out of shorts and wait for a better time to do so.
SPX/VIX Ratio 4/15/2016 (All-time View)Instead of looking at SPX alone, looking at this ratio is better for shorting stocks/longing VIX, because it helps us distinguish between fearless crashes and fearful crashes. Watch the black/light blue/brown lines above. If this ratio breaks above those lines confidently, get out of shorts and wait for a better time to do so.
VIX - Comparative bottom analysisThe custom FrankenTARD algo suggests that VIX is ready to make a move up..
PREMIUM SELLNG: NEXT WEEK REMAINS A "WASTELAND"Another week of wasteland for premium selling, with EWZ again topping the volatility charts for non earnings plays, although I may go small with an IWM setup in the May monthly (it's the most volatile amongst the index ETF's, which ain't saying much). I've got one more short-term RUT/IUX setup on that I will need to address, but other than that, it's going to be a light week trading wise from where I'm sitting right now.
Although you can naturally dip your toe into some of the more volatile individual underlyings pre earnings, my preference is to keep powder dry until the actual announcement is upon us before diving in, and there simply isn't anything on next week's earnings calendar that meets my standards for "options playability."
So, in the absence of some monumental sea change here, I'm going to be mostly hand sitting for the week on options plays, but may dabble with scalping /ES intraday and/or look for another opportunity to go long volatility in a VIX derivative, assuming we get to around VIX 13-ish.
LOOK FOR VIX SUB-13 TO REENTER LONG IN VXX/UVXY OR SHORT SVXYHaving exited a VXX short call diagonal setup today, I'm looking at further opportunities to get back into a long VXX or long UVXY setup, and -- as previously noted, I'll be looking to VIX for guidance, since both VXX and UVXY suffer from contango and their "bottoms" are slippery slopes that are gradually eroded by contango over time. In other words, what's a "bottom" now in VXX and UVXY may not be the "bottom" next week or next month or the month thereafter if we have prolonged low volatility.
You can naturally also short SVXY on a VIX sub-13 level, since it's an inverse ... . In its case, its top is the slippery slope.
