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UVXY

Long Volatility for the upcoming whatever term. UVXY over $30It seems we're at the inflection point once again. Maybe a day or two out from SMAs and MACDs turning positive for UVXY, and these big spikes in block trades are usually a precursor it seems to market sell offs - big players taking profits likely. I have multiple other charts that support this view with OnbalanceVol/Accum/distribution; potential slide in oil, resistance in gold and so on and so forth. Granted, only chart can be linked! I expect UVXY to go well past $30 in the coming 1-2 weeks. This COULD change, and this MAY NOT be the actual bottom for UVXY, and I would hedge the position in both sides, but I'll be wary to add if indeed this is the next bottom, and it's a higher high, in regards to S.D. and True average price
CBOE:UVXYLong
by beastmode_us
2
LOOK TO VIX LEVELS TO PLAY VXX, UVXY LONGOne of the other things I'm watching next week (and, in fact, that I look at daily) is the VIX. With VIX at 14.02, a sub-12 "fearlessness level" is within striking distance, so I'm looking to add to my long volatility position in here somewhere, assuming the price is right. The VIX bottom is not particularly "clean," but historically the low volatility periods are marked by a low range between 14 and 11. When going long volatility, you're naturally not limited to going long VIX. You can also go long VXX, long UVXY, or short SVXY (an inverse). But when you compare and contrast the charts of VIX, VXX, and UVXY, something appears markedly "goofy" with the VXX and UVXY charts. That "goofiness" arises from cycles of backwardation and contango (mostly contango) and, as a result, the VXX and UVXY "bottoms" are somewhat fuzzier and more ill-defined than those of the pure fear index, the VIX. Because of this "bottom fuzziness" in VXX and UVXY due to contango/backwardation, I use the VIX as my bottom guide if, for some reason, I'm not going to play VIX options to go long volatility, but opt to go long in VXX or UVXY instead (my general preference is to use VXX over UVXY if I'm not using VIX options; UVXY bid/ask spreads can frequently be grotesquely wide, making it difficult to get a fill at a "fair" price). When the VIX reaches the price I'm looking for, I then turn to the VIX derivative product and look at setups for taking advantage of VIX bottoming, such as a short put credit spread or a synthetic covered call. So, you might be asking, "Why don't I short SVXY using options?" SVXY is an inverse volatility product, which means as VIX increases, SVXY declines and vice versa. Unfortunately, these volatility products have their own volatility. As SVXY declines, its volatility increases, so you may find your short call setup treading water as SVXY declines because, as it does so, its volatility increases, which affects the price of its options. Moreover, SVXY -- as an inverse VIX derivative -- suffers from "inverse contango", which means that, generally, over time, its price will increase to infinity, assuming that "contango" is a constant push on its price. You'll notice that SVXY has had to reverse split a couple of times to accommodate this "inverse contango". Consequently, it's just more effective to go long volatility in the long volatility products, VIX, VXX, or UVXY.
CBOE:VIX
by NaughtyPines
WHAT I'M LOOKING AT FOR THIS COMING WEEKWith the VIX at sub-15 levels, premium selling plays are hard to come by, so I can either resort to low volatility strategies (calendars, diagonals), look to go "long volatility," or search for "diamonds in the ruff" for premium selling. Since I not a rabid low vol strategy player, I'm going to look at seeking out what limited short volatility plays there are or go long volatility, assuming an ideal setup presents itself. Currently, the sole individual underlying that I would sell premium in and that is not an earnings play is EWZ, since it still has an implied volatility rank of +70. Naturally, there are other underlyings with +70 implied vol rank, but they're just too low in price to get significant premium out of (e.g., PBR, which has a rank of 84). Unfortunately, I already have a play on in EWZ and don't like doubling up on plays just because there's nothing else out there. However, there are a couple of earnings announcements that are giving me that "come hither" look: NKE, which announces on Tuesday after market close and GME, which announces on Thursday after market. They're not looking especially great right now (each bringing in about a .70 ($70) credit for the 70% probability of profit short strangle setup (I generally like to see a 1.00 ($100) credit out of these), but they're worth keeping an eye on in the event that they get "frisky" right before earnings. The other thing I have my eyes peeled for is further weakness in the VIX with my "dream" price somewhere around 12. See my VIX post for what I'm looking at to play either VIX, VXX, or UVXY long ... .
NYSE:NKE
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD -- FOMC, FOMC, FOMC; LONG VIX; OIL; EARNINGSHere's what I'm looking at for next week: VIX/VIX PRODUCTS . VIX finished last week at 16.50. I will look at VIX/VIX product setups early next week depending how the "horse does at the gate" (Monday). If we see a tight range in the S&P like we did pre-Draghi in prepation for FOMC, VIX could drift go a little lower Monday through Wednesday, in which case I will want to use VIX, VIX, or UVXY to go "long volatility." Index ETF's . There is little sense in selling April expiry premium here in broader index instruments with VIX the way it is. Brazil, oil/gas, and the gold space continue to have the volatility, but I'm already in all of the underlyings that have any juice in their options that are at 70+ implied volatility rank (UNG (covered call), EWZ (iron fly), GDXJ (short strangle), RIG (short strangle), GLD (credit spread), and XOP (short strangle) in those sectors. If you look at SPY implied volatility month-to-month, it doesn't approach something "regular" until the June expiry (19.9%), so I may look to set up some small premium selling play in the June expiry on the possibility that low volatility sticks around for a period of time and to have something in the queue for that event. Trying to sell 45 DTE premium in the index ETF's in a period like we had last year between mid-March and late August was a total slog ... . Oil . The 2016 high was set on 1/4 at 35.36 in USOIL. it tested the underside of that level Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday of last week and broke through it by a whopping .20 cents on Friday, so who knows whether that'll hold. If oil caves, the S&P will follow hard (the S&P currently has a .93 correlation with USOIL). However, oil has a tendency to enter fairly lengthy consolidative periods before moving directionally forward, so be prepared for oil to taunt you with both suggestions that it's going to break significantly higher and indications that it's going to totally implode ... . If you're into trading spot forex, watch oil's effect on the petro currency USDCAD. The Loonie may get a double whammy from a cave in oil plus Fed tightening/dovish-hawkishness. The Loonie's entire strength profile from 2/11 is largely on the back of oil. EURUSD. This is the strong/weak pair to watch post-Draghi and running up into FOMC. For me, this is not a pair I would mess around with "playing in the middle" between 1.08 and 1.10. As I did last year, I would wait for it to hit 1.14 and then go short if it's inclined to react to the upside on whatever FOMC says; otherwise, stay out. The fundamentals on this pair should be telling everyone to only short on strength (ECB easing; Fed tightening), as attempting to play the 200 pips between 1.08 and 1.10 has been and is likely to continue to be somewhat discouraging as it looks to find its footing in the larger range between 1.14 and near parity. EARNINGS. Although the earnings season has been described as "over" for this quarter, there are a few issues that are still due to report that might be worth playing, assuming that the volatility is there: ORCL (Tuesday, after close), FDX (Wednesday after close), and ADBE (Thursday, after market close). As it stands right now, none of those meet my implied volatility rank rules (70th percentile plus), with all three of those having percentiles hovering around 50, but naturally that might change running up into the actual announcement.
FX:USOIL
by NaughtyPines
SPX500 short term bullish, long term bear?Found a nice and easy way to confirm my trades. Standard deviation, heiken ashi, and some general charting IN CONJUNCTION with simple gettrendstrategy provide some good insight. Look for a trend change, and a convincing breakout above or below previous channel, with appropriate slope (that's really your risk level). I use heiken ashi to confirm those trend changes, through consecutive color changing bars (that are OUTSIDE of S.D. regression channel), as well as Ichi with accumulation and distribution (not pictured). I also take a look at momentum for better trade entry and exits. All said and done, we're in no man's land, but the current uptrend has been getting weaker, and SD regression channels are really small now, so a break in either direction would likely get amplified. Waiting for a short entry sub 1980 confirmed by multiple red bars on a fast move, trend change, ichi cloud turning red, trailing price below current price, MACD going down, $TLT moving up, $VXX/$UVXY moving up, $SPY distribution kicking in, and finally the Put to Call ratio for SP500 going more bear ;).
FX:SPX500Short
by beastmode_us
The Big Picture. 1800 Key Support level.$SPY The 2000+ level and the all time high record news are already a thing of the past. We have reached the peak and now the market is in correction mode, Are we already in a Bear Market? Not yet, but we're heading to one. In the Monthly Big Picture, the US Market has been in an uptrend with two major previous peaks, the eBubble and the Housing Bubble, currently we're in the process of exiting the Free Money Bubble. Nobody liked when the Fed announced the Free Money was over, but it was something unavoidable. The Fed is trying to let this bubble deflate as smoothly as possible, trying to avoid a market overreaction, so no more rate hikes are expected soon. 1800 is the Key Support Level. So the market is expected to be bouncing around 2000 and 1800. But in case the market overreacts or a major triggering event happens, this support level could be broken and the next target to the downside is 1500 , which are the peak levels before the recession and technically is the 0.618 Fibonacci level (a strong support) and the mid uptrend channel support line.
SP:SPXShort
by Madrid
3
MARKETS long term short, short term long.Markets have dropped to extreme levels, down to a near technical correction, so I have to think that peoples' psyche will kick in here, and that institutions/HFTs will target all depressed "good" companies, and scoop them up for lower prices. Additionally, I am highly focused on options and overall market advance/decline trends. Regarding these, the P/C ratio for SPY has been decreasing to lowest in over a week, at just barely above 1, indicating an enormous amount of call buying. I have to evaluate these with prejudice, however, as they could be hedges for long positions in the market, but either way it's still a useful metric. Similarly near term volatility has finally started decreasing aver 5+ trading days of increases, and I've found weekly reversals to be meaningful at the very least on a short term basis. UVXY has the highest P/C ratio in the last week as well, to go along with bullish market expectations. Technically, a correction is viewed as a short term bottom, and thus the violent bounce in August. If we pick up steam after the lows below 1900 in SPX, there's a good chance to test the 2000 before anything else happens. My focus here would be to short UVXY, as with even a slow market incline the volatility should evaporate. From the news side, I do think there are some positive signs for a bullish behavior. China has stopped forced devaluation of their currency, where it would allow them to be much more export friendly, but also could cause a world markets meltdown well below the current levels. North Korea news has been priced into the volatility indexes, and I find it hard-pressed that anyone is really considering them a "factual" imminent threat. The last bit of a puzzle would be for the FOMC to come out and reiterate some dovish signals, like a freeze in rates increase; or for the OPEC/US or any other oil producer to continue reducing the supply; re-imposing sanctions on Iran and so on. My point is that something HAS happened to quell the markets from China, but it was offset by oil/north korea/and general world currency and other unrest. It's a chance that it may be enough, but more than likely it would not be. I think some additional actions (as suggest above for example) have to be taken, to re-establish market stability and eliminate volatility. Devaluing dollar would likely be the EASIEST and best idea at the moment.
FX:SPX500Short
by beastmode_us
1