still in the pop, or back to the doldrums?its clear that uvxy has stiff overgead resistance, but if that breaks we could see over $21 soon. prove the bear case and its moreso back to $16.
UVXY
volatility is picking up (UVXY)we are coming off the first weekly higher low at all time lows since the corona bounce. we havent had a major weekly bounce since then. id imagine if we do close this week somewhat lower, and trend down into next week its likely to send uvxy over 21. if SPX continues its daily bounce next week id imagine were headed back to all time lows UVXY 13 or less.
VIX on Triangular Track!Expanding triangle
Target: 49.5
In Elliot-Wave theory, triangles have 5 sides and each side is usually subdivided into 3 waves. Analysis valid as long as the channel stays intact. Equities will micro-bottom mid-June before the commencement of the melt-up rally!
Earlier analysis:
48.5/49.5 achievable with an extended market correction. Implied volatility uptrend due to fundamental reasons ( Inflation /War).
S&P 500 target would equate to 3950-4000 in this projection!
NASDAQ: 12K (Wave 1 top) or 11K (200 Week EMA / 50 Month EMA )
looks like were forming a lower high (uvxy)the 15 minute seems like price want to fall back into the vwap channel and go for a touch of vwma
$UVXY$UVXY looks primed for a move to the upside. Looks like a double bottom and a breakout bull flag may push this to 17 tomorrow, which will push the market a little further into the darkness temporarily. If this holds true then it will give more truth to our 432-428 target on the month for the $SPY.
Volatility about to break out? $UVXY the path to $60+.$UVXY looks like it's on the verge of breaking out to the upside. We a falling wedge which broke out to the upside and now price has found support on the top of the structure. Usually that indicates a large move upwards is coming.
If it starts moving, I can see a quick move up finding a final target of around $62.
Let's see what happens over the coming weeks. I've started buying in the low $12 region.
UVXY Heading Higher PotentiallyWe seem to be making a bottoming formation and within this I see a janky head and shoulders pattern. I think we are slightly over bought on lower time frames but we could move higher and the key to that here is volatility. NFA, DYOR
Daily high of 14.28 and a low of 13.21 will it hit 12 next weekStill new to this, but bare with me. I think with RSI and the MFI showing a cooling off it could run up before next week.
$UVXY entry PTs 11.50-12-13 Target PTs 20-23 and higherThe index seeks to offer exposure to market volatility through publicly traded futures markets and is designed to measure the implied volatility of the S&P 500 over 30 days in the future.
$UVXY market rally slowing down? 👁🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management
Bitcoin and the US markets all seem to be losing steam after rallying for the majority of the month of March. My team is now expecting the markets to retrace and behave bearish leading into the month of April.
Some US states have been proposing a possible stimulus check to residents to help fight inflation. This may send the markets higher, but in our opinion, this would be an ignorant course of action and it is unlikely to pass. We believe that this would only delay the inevitable recession and cause the inflation situation to grow even worse. With this unlikely scenario being said, we still believe that now is the time to position ourselves defensively against the market.
My team will be using $UVXY again as our market hedge, and we hope to come out on top with it just as before.
We entered $UVXY today at $14.25 per share. Our take profit is set at $18 with a stop loss at $13.25.
ENTRY: $14.25
TAKE PROFIT: $18
STOP LOSS: $13.25
If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
Is the cash VIX giving us a reversal sign?The cash VIX at the end of June 2021 found very strong support at 15 and could not close below. Since that timeframe we've seen higher highs. Since Nov 4, 2021 the cash VIX has made higher highs and lower highs and is therefore in an uptrend until we make a lower low. The VIX uptrend can also be seen when zooming out on the weekly and monthly chart.
Yesterday, the cash VIX had an "inside" day. I thought it would be interesting to study what happens to the VIX after an inside day. The orange circle's on this daily chart are "inside" days. As you can see they give an indication that a reversal is coming...sometimes the reversal happens immediately and other times it takes a couple days but in general, based upon my analysis, it's been a fairly reliable signal in the last 9 months.
If you follow the VIX then you also know that VIX gaps generally get filled fairly quickly...most of the time very quickly but some can take a couple of weeks to months. Very, very few take years.
I'm showing the following gaps have not been filled:
Upside Gaps:
45.40 (April 20, 2020)
35.01 (March 8, 2022)
33.39 (March 15, 2022)
Downside Gaps:
19.98 (Feb 9, 2022)
ProShares Ultra VIX ETF (USA: $UVXY): Good Area To Accumulate 👌UVXY offers daily leveraged exposure to short-term VIX futures, designed to capture the volatility of the S&P 500, in a commodity pool wrapper. As a geared product with daily resets, UVXY is designed as a short-term trading tool and not a long-term investment vehicle. Returns over holding periods greater than one day can be, and often are, significantly different from 1.5x. Like its peer products, UVXY does not deliver leveraged returns on the VIX index itself, but on front- and second-month futures contracts. As a commodity pool, investors will get K-1 at tax time but avoid the counterparty risk of an exchange-traded note. Prior to February 28, 2018, the fund provided 2x leveraged exposure.
should bounce here any dayThe Vix / UVXY has been in an uptrend for a few months now. you can see the MAs moving up. With all the horrible news, the Vix should be rising. The only thing that can be occurring is the government getting involved...
VIX vs TLT/LQD suggests bear is near. Back away slowly! VIX has been spiking with TLT/LQD, but the last few times just seemed to help turn it around. Looks similar to the new year, in orange. Volatility has been exploding, per usual. Every 2 years since 2008, Vix has made a new support 3pts higher, shown in solid white. I just read an analyst saying 18 is likely the bottom for some time. TLT/LQD has also been on a years long up trend as well, at a similar pace. So I'm inclined to belief this is a good spot to watch for a long scalp VIX entry, and shorts on the indices.
VIX TrendingVIX appears mid-term/long-term bullish to me and I'm expecting it to reach 40+ in May. If lucky traders get their profit now and in early April, 200EMA in daily view forms a strong support which could be a place to take the profit and get some SPY puts.
Market is going down with all the bad newsShort all you can, the ship is sinking very soon. record inflation, Russia war, fed stopped buying, interest rates higher.
weekly vix headed to oversold test of support (UVXY)this thing has had a killer of a bear week. we saw the signs early last week, and now at the close of this one its pretty obvious that if the .382 of weekly retracement spx holds we are in breakout mode in broader markets. uvxy could bounce in a big way, but the action seems bearish at the time being. the green path is if we tighten in range holding that uptrending support in the early part of next week. the red path is if we breakout in a big way and melt up in the s&p. the week may gap up for vix, in which case im aiming for a sell off in uvxy followed by bounce. if we gap down in vix however im looking for that to get bought up followed by steep decline in the later part of next week. either, or case im aiming for the horizontals on this chart. right now im aiming for the bear over the weekend scenario, and im looking for that mid week bump or gap up in vix while the index is oversold.
Shorting UltaShort Proshares. UVXYGoals 17, 15. Invalidation at 26.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe.
you guessed it: overbought vix (UVXY)this thing has pumped all day and is getting tired. UVXY is overbought on the 15 minute timeframe and is taking on the appearence of a pullback on the one minute where qqe is trying to punch in a short entry. could there be more to go bullishly? of course. why bother trying to squeeze more out of it long when you know lower prices soon are all but guaranteed?
high to mid 19s are a target.
VIX --> 48.5-49.5 in Extended Correction48.5/49.5 achievable with an extended market correction. Implied volatitlity uptrend due to fundamental reasons (Inflation/War).
S&P 500 target would equate to 3950-4000 in this projection!
NASDAQ: 12K (Wave 1 top) or 11K (200 Week EMA / 50 Month EMA)
broader market health indicated (UVXY)vix is showing that weve successfully tested some level in the s&p that could hold. momentum in uvxy is downward. the hourly should play out in bears favor, bullish for the s&p.
VIX Showing Bullish Ascending Triangle PatternVIX looks to be exhibiting a bullish ascending triangle pattern. This could mean we are about to see a big drop in major indices in the next week or so (look back at 2018). Look for confirmation of it breaking out above the flat top and maybe a retest (resistance becomes support) before making a big move up.
overbought vix (UVXY)this thing has taken on a terminal thrust/ island top appearance and i wouldnt be surprised to see vix and its derivative products pull back from this extreme.
