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UVXY

$VIX to Key Levels, Analysis & targets$VIX to 43 I honestly think that I have charting issues… is this just sexy or what??? Let’s see what happens… GL let me know your thoughts. —————— I am not your financial advisor, but I will happily answer questions and analyze to the best of my ability but ultimately the risk is on you. Check out my ideas, but also do your own due diligence. I have a huge tolerance for volatility so please know that. If you’re new to my trade setups please try them on a small scale first. Then go in with a risk you’re comfortable with. I am not a bull. I am not a bear. I just see what I see in the charts and I don’t pay too much attention to the noise in the news. If you want me to analyze any stock or ETF just leave me a comment and I’ll do it if I can. (If I have time) And most importantly… Have fun, y’all!! (\_/) ( •_•) / >🚀
TVC:VIXLong
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
3
Volatility - UVXYIdea for UVXY: - Mistakenly closed previous position too early, but at least it gives more confirmation in the thesis. - DXY continuing its ascent, causing macro bearishness. - Efforts to break above 200D SMA on SPX continuously rejected. Waited for an SPX below the put wall at 4350 "to be sure". - There is risk in short positions pre-CNY, but there is a Quality stop above 200D on SPX. We already had a bit of a bounce off 500D on Russell, but it is fading. - Federal tax event - liquidity sinkhole Feb 15th. Along with the QE Taper, this should be a systemic liquidity drain. - GDP was a "beat" but the components do not look appealing. GDP Sales (minus inventories) shows far less structural growth than suggested. IMO it is the peak of the business cycle, and earnings will only drop from here, due to hawkish Monetary Policy. - Shadow rates spiking and real rates about to be hiked. - Yield curve inverting. - Volatility begets volatility. Widening ranges suggest further volatility spike to come. In conclusion - worth it to try a long Vol position here and have some conviction (with a reasonable stop-loss). Long UVXY 19C Feb 18 (4.20 debit) GLHF - DPT
CBOE:UVXYLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
2
Guaranteed money (UVXY)If we break to new highs it's almost a guarantee that, provided we are hitting new lows in multiple important sectors like tickers xlf, qqq, spy, we take this over 19. The only real guarantee is that whatever high we hit in UVXY we are seeing lower prices soon. low 14s is where I'm drawing these hypothetical puts expiring a me to.e early March. This is based on the simple fact that indices didn't hold their lows, and there are really two scenarios that can play out: we set some lower low as support and bounce, or we continue lower. If we go lower there's really no support. If we bounce there's really very little resistance. Low availability of shares means we're not headed sideways. This is the bullish picture for uvxy: This is the bearish picture: The forecasts show my limits of how far I would long or short based on a bull/bear move from current levels. The ghost feed is just one solution to how they could both hit. If you get the right signals UVXY is guaranteed money.
CBOE:UVXY
by cerealtrades
Long UVXY and VXX Trading Strategy IdeaThis is for going long UVXY or VXX. I am fine-tuning on systematic approach to trading long volatility. I have back tested the rules below with great results! Please comment and share your thoughts. I traded this several times recently and have done well with it. It is fade-it or half-life approach; decaying position or reverse pyramid, since the underlying is decaying. Take a look at the chart; arrows indicate recent entries AMEX:UVXY . CHART SETUP 195 minute bar chart (split the day into two bars) RSI set to 2 periods MACD - set to 2, 6, 1. (essentially a Moving average cross over) Stochastics Full. 13,3,3 EMA 5 and 8 day EMA. Bollinger bands -standard settings. TTM Squeeze BUY RULES Buy Full position when: - MACD crosses from red to green - above zero line AND - bar close is higher than previous bar AND - Stochastics are trending higher AND - RSI(2) has crossed or is greater than 70 AND - VXX/UVXY price is below the upper bollinger band AND - VXX/UVXY is above the 5 period EMA SELL RULES - 4.1% stop upon entry - sell entire position of MACD 2,6,1 closes red on the day. - sell 50% position on first bar/price trading above the upper bollinger bands - sell 25% of position on second bar/price trading above the upper bollinger bands - sell remaining 25% position upon hard MACD sell signal or discretionary. REPEAT: - repeat and refill full position. For example, if you are down to final 25% position and VXX/UVXY crosses from below to above 5 EMA AND MACD is still green AND price is below upper bollinger band, AND bar close is higher than previous bar close, buy back to full position. Repeat sell rules. Notes: - if you miss a sell signal, sell the bar. for example, VXX traded above the upper BB briefly then below, sell the respective portion of the position. - you may see several trades back to back in high market volatility - I use the TTM Squeeze indicator for direction; histogram trending up? is it green? - This system entry matches up with Heiken Ashi charts buy signals if these are your thing. - the compounding of this strategy works well with 100% re-investment on each trade. - long volatility trades are quick and fade fast. occasionally you will see an extended high volatility; this is the reason the for the 25% last part of the position. (I owned TVIX in Feb 2020 and sold it all once it hit +100%, it went up 11x) - I back tested this to 2016; the results were amazing. in 2021 you had 30 trades, 23 winners, a trade expectancy of 9%, and with 100% re-investment upon every trade, a 783% return if I am doing the math correctly. (rough results below) - other years had better results (2018) but still validating. (2018 returns look ridiculous) - I set buy stops above trading prices at where my signals would be met to automate the entry. - you need some real fortitude as you may take several losses in a row. -4.1, -4.1, -4.1 Again, share your thoughts and comments 2021 UVXY Trades. (Rough backtesting results) starting with 100k hypothetical) Trade Returns trade profit/loss running percentage Running total of capital 6.52% 6,520.00 6.52% $106,520.00 15.56% 16,574.51 23.09% $123,094.51 16.06% 19,768.98 42.86% $142,863.49 -4.10% -5,857.40 37.01% $137,006.09 12.82% 17,564.18 54.57% $154,570.27 14.33% 22,149.92 76.72% $176,720.19 4.00% 7,068.81 83.79% $183,788.99 -2.88% -5,293.12 78.50% $178,495.87 3.66% 6,532.95 85.03% $185,028.82 2.80% 5,180.81 90.21% $190,209.63 -4.10% -7,798.59 82.41% $182,411.03 16.76% 30,572.09 112.98% $212,983.12 -4.10% -8,732.31 104.25% $204,250.81 3.66% 7,475.58 111.73% $211,726.39 12.02% 25,449.51 137.18% $237,175.91 10.66% 25,282.95 162.46% $262,458.86 22.19% 58,239.62 220.70% $320,698.48 17.91% 57,437.10 278.14% $378,135.58 -1.05% -3,970.42 274.17% $374,165.15 6.14% 22,973.74 297.14% $397,138.89 -4.10% -16,282.69 280.86% $380,856.20 22.23% 84,664.33 365.52% $465,520.53 6.22% 28,955.38 394.48% $494,475.91 6.73% 33,278.23 427.75% $527,754.14 8.80% 46,442.36 465.40% $574,196.50 11.67% 67,008.73 519.71% $641,205.23 11.23% 72,007.35 578.07% $713,212.58 10.69% 76,242.42 639.87% $789,455.00 -4.10% -32,367.66 613.63% $757,087.35 16.14% 122,193.90 712.67% $879,281.25
CBOE:VXXLong
by UnderwearMillionaire
$UVXY market hedge*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management You NEVER want to see the market rally in a bearish market right before an important CPI inflation report. A lot of stocks are looking bullish right now, but sentiment could flip quickly tomorrow. My team will be using $UVXY as a market hedge. We entered in premarket at $12.60. Our take profit is yet to be determined but our stop loss is set at $11.50 ENTRY: $12.60 STOP LOSS: $11.50 If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
CBOE:UVXYLong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
13
SPY - VIX VolatilityHi, Here is my art project that illustrates a few harmonic patterns that has strong influence over our current motions, as suggested by the similarity in spacial orientation of the arguments within the support & resistance planes, indicated by solid & dotted lines. The PURPLE trace shows nicely the behavior if this is a mid level bullish argument. The projection is from our previous increase in volatility, as shown by the purple trace. It is scaled to the most recent major move within the argument, and also with an eye toward the forward looking movements with int eh S&R planes. The ORANGE is of course a significant bearish influence, again scaled to oscillate naturally between the planes. Now. . .. . a more exciting idea to explore... we all know that once the SPX starts poppin' through support levels, it can get real rowdy... just like poppin' bottle at Elleven. enter the PINK and BLUE traces. These are from the same previous growth cycle, but scaled so that the next order of magnitude smaller harmonic pattern aligns with our current larger time frame harmonic pattern. This is how exponential growth happens. My favorite subject ! . .. . and yours too i hope. .. . . Things get a bit hectic on the chart at the 30 minute candle (minimum time frame to publish, but the 9 minute is my favorite. . . . . so i threw in some level indicators, on the tops & bottoms of the forecast. Good Luck, God Speed, Love & Light! p.s. . . .. . if you like this idea, follow me, and there is a reasonable chance i will update it next week as we get back into the action.
CBOE:UVXY
by DHLawrence
Volatility Trading With The Composite Leading IndicatorThe composite leading indicator is produced by the OECD. It is an index of components that pertain to each country and is considered a leading indicator of near-future economic performance. The components for the CLI are: Component Series (Unit) Source Work started for dwellings sa (number) Net new orders - durable goods sa (USD) Share prices: NYSE composite (2015=100) Consumer - Confidence indicator sa (normal = 100) Weekly hours worked: manufacturing sa (hours) Manufacturing - Industrial confidence indicator (% balance) Spread of interest rates (% p.a.) In this piece, we will look specifically at the CLI for the USA. However, I think it will work for most countries ultimately. I consider you can use the CLI to accurately forecast slowdowns and volatility in US markets and sometimes outright recessions and crashes. I have overlaid the CLI (the blue waves) with US recessions (red blocks) and added a 20 month SMA to it. I have also added in dotted orange bands points where CLI takes out its own MA and moves below it which I consider being a "buy vol" signal. To be clear, these dotted bands are not necessarily recessions , just slowdowns denoted by the composite leading indicator/MA tool. This does not mean however that they are not potentially good volatility trades (as we shall see). We can see that out of 14 slowdowns and economic recessions. The CLI/MA has a very good success rate if we view it as a "buy" indicator for the VIX . The buy points denoted by the orange dotted bands are: 1st May 1993 Was followed by a small VIX spike in 1994. A small win could have been achieved by buying vix at $12 and selling for $19 one month later returning over 50%. 21st December 1994 A longer-term hold. Buy signal triggered at around $12.50 and a hold would have been necessary. The positions started generating serious returns in 1996 and maxed out at around $32 in 1997 returning over 150% over 2 years. 1st May 1998 Buy signal was generated at around the $20 mark. This would have returned 100% gains just 3 months later during the VIX spike to over $43. 1st June 2000 Buy signal generated at the $21 mark. This was shortly before the dotcom bubble burst and this would have been a 1.5 year hold generating around 50% return when closed at the onset of the dotcom crisis or could have been held for a return above 90% in 2001 or well over 100% in 2002. 1st March 2002 An interesting dip on the VIX was called by the indicator here. Not sure if just a coincidence or not but it does look suspiciously neat-and-tidy. This triggered at $17.97 and then returned over 100% just a few months later in September of the same year equating to a 5-month hodl. - 1st Feb 2005 Peak of the post-2000 credit cycle. This trade was a hold. Indicator triggered at 12.01 and the best selling position was 2 years later in July 2007. Returning just under 100% or could have been held to generate bigger returns when the credit crunch kicked in during 2007 and the primary crash occurred during 2008. 1st November 2007 This is obviously the peak of the market for the housing bubble bull-run. The indicator triggered at $20.15 and the ensuing VIX spike maxed out at around $58 returning nearly 300% if the trade was closed one year later. 1st June 2011 A very close to the edge trade which triggered during the double-dip recession in the Eurozone. This is one of the less-good entries with a price of around $25. However, it is very very short term with VIX peaking at $42 over just a few months returning over 75%. 1st March 2015 The indicator triggers on around 1st of March of this year at around the $14 mark and is another medium-term trade with vix peaking at 28 just a matter of months later returning just under 100% as the onset of the Brexit/US Trade War grips market. 1st August 2018 Jitters are evident in CLI as far back as 2018 when the indicator fired and returned a buy price of £13.04. This could have been held for a short-term trade turning over 70% within a matter of months or held longer until the COVID pandemic in 2020 which I consider to have been one of the root causes for the VIX becoming elevated during this time. The longer-term hold would have returned over 400%. As such, you can see that the crossovers between the CLI signal and the MA on a monthly chart usually preceded volatility bull markets, very serious short-term vix spikes and sometimes even outright recessions. There are a couple of points to bear in mind here. Signals sometimes appear up to a year before the "event". That's the whole purpose of this indicator. So in other words, you may have to be prepared to hold. As such, ETF decay which is inherent to instruments like UVXY must be factored in. This strategy is therefore more suited to de facto VIX rather than any of it's leveraged ETF variants. There are a couple of so-called "false positives" with respect to this indicator calling an "event" very far ahead. For instance, in 2005 it gave a "buy signal" for volatility. This isn't necessarily "wrong" per se, because face it, you'd have been dumping your equities and taking on vol nearly at the very top of the market here. As such there is SOMETIMES ample opportunity to "buy n hold n accumulate". That's another reason why leveraged volatility may not always be suitable per se due to the fact of leveraged ETF decay. On the other hand, there are some short-term opportunities here which are denominated in terms of only months . Leveraged products may be more suited to these. I believe that we must exercise judgement if we are to implement this strategy and to judge the relative position of our entries relative to the market when choosing what instruments to employ to benefit from volatility spikes. I believe this does demonstrate the validity of using CLI and other macroeconomic indicators for volatility investing.
FRED:USALOLITONOSTSAM
by RogueEconomics
3
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (BATS: $UVXY) 👀How does UVXY trade? UVXY trades like a stock. It can be bought, sold, or sold short anytime the market is open, including pre-market and after-market time periods. With an average daily volume of 47 million shares its liquidity is excellent and bid/ask spreads are a penny. It has an active set of options available, with seven weeks’ worth of Weeklys and close to the money strikes every 0.5 points. Like a stock, UVXY’s shares can be split or reverse split. If fact, UVXY reverse split 5 times in its first four years of existence—which may be a record. See this post for more details on historical and predicted reverse stock splits. UVXY can be traded in most IRAs / Roth IRAs, although your broker will likely require you to electronically sign a waiver that documents the various risks with this security. Shorting of any security is not allowed in an IRA.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by Bullishcharts
3
context for the crossroads (uvxy)i just wanted to show people why this could still go very badly for broader market longs. im not doomsaying, or fear mongering here. im simply outlining why i still have a long forecast for vix, even though we are almost breaking to new lows in uvxy. the highlighted areas are times in the very recent past where spx has increased in volatility even while indices were on the verge of fully recovering. again, im not saying long this thing right now. im pointing out how this could still be a bullish position for vix longs even while the market appears to be about to recover fully. dont jump into uvxy trying to call the bottom, but do stay cautious! this can still go both ways and tuesday is going to be critical.
CBOE:UVXY
by cerealtrades
dual forecast for vix (uvxy)the last few times vix has done this on the daily as spx sold off the week high was suddenly taken out, bullish divergence in rsi showed for uvxy as it beat the 1 of trend based fib extend, the vwma tucked under the price and began to rise as volume increased until the price hit the 2.618 right now the 2.618 is around $18.94 if we get over the week high right above $14, and immediately we see money dumping into vix as multiple sectors pull back at once we are almost certainly in for over $15, perhaps over $18. if at any point we cant hold $12, and the weekly picture is showing healthy rotation finding higher lows in multiple sectors, were in for mid $11s, perhaps as low as $9.58
CBOE:UVXY
by cerealtrades