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UVXY

VIX - VXZ Front Month / MonthlyA Gap 10 Handles below - Weekly and Monthly Chart which is of concern for the Bulls. Delta remains the trade in the VIX. Extensions in Trade, this can become an exponential move barring no Monkey Business from the Operators, ESF, and FED. _________________________________________________________________ The 54.04% move Higher was the 4th largest move since the inception of the VIX. 2021 - 61.44% 2007 - 64.22% 2018 - 115.60% For the Point move, 10 Handles ranks 18th, 2020 was 1st @ 24.86 Points. Statistically, the percentage move on Friday is an extreme outlier. __________________________________________________________________ Price Left a lower Gap 10 Points below. Implied Volatility of At The Money Options... need to be Observed. VXX Spike @ 4 Highest. for M1/M2 ____________________________________________________________________ For Historical reference - the OEX or SP 100 Equivalent during the 1987 Reversal: Baseline VXO (Correlated Historical) Spiked to 30 from 18.22. At the time I was working at Drexel and will never forget how Investors began selling OEX Puts at the Money/Above - believing the one-day event was a knockoff. This was Friday., end of week anomaly. Screw Germany was the thinking. The Ripples will be contained. Greenspan provided the Emergency pat down to Member Banks the following week, reminding them - this event must be contained for everyone's Financial health. The S&P 500 lost 10% the week ending Friday, October 16, 1987 and lost an additional 20% the following Monday, October 19, 1987. __________________________________________________________________________ Nervousness appeared the following Monday AM briefing @ 5 AM. John Jetter asked the team to contact clients and reduce exposure to OEX to reduce Risk. Monday did not end well for those who did not heed his strategy. The VXO on Equivalent - Spikesd again to 170+ Monday, setting near 150 on the Day. This was THE largest single Daily move in Market Volatility in History. The One Day wonder turned into the largest Bloodbath in History for Bulls and sellers of OEX Puts, Dip Buyers, and the Pop and Fresh Peter Lynch Herd. They were decimated, the Magellan Fund took its largest 2 Day loss ever. Small Caos were raked - defeating the individual investors had inherent advantages over large institutions Thesis. Theories do jump out of High rises in a Lifetime of Investing. Leverage was not an issue then as it is now. It sets a preamble for enormous declines, the Potential for them. _______________________________________________________________________ Will History report? It has a higher than usual Probability of doing precisely that. We will see, at some point, there will be an outsized retracement, from where... Fundamentally Straight down or not at all. Interesting times indeed.
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61
10
Volatility - Convergence, Reverse Calendar SpreadIdea for VIX: - Spot VIX sub 17 (quickly rising), 2 point spread has appeared between spot VIX and front month, with a high degree of contango in term structure, and a significant spread between Treasury volatility (MOVE). - Daily Roll Yield 0.10~ - Possible to either capture spread, or have a low risk bullish bias. - Positive correlation right now with Vol and Equities. High demand. Strategy: - VXX-VXZ spread, reverse calendar spread, front month-spot (ES or spot VIX options) spread. - Front month VIX, spot hedged (ES or spot VIX options). GLHF - DPT
TVC:VIXLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
3
Technicals on UVXY show high probability of upwards action(Im also using this chart to show some key signals I look for when trying to find possible price reversals) Using the daily chart UVXY appears to indicate a high probability of upwards momentum in the short-medium term. Today and maybe the following days could be a good time to buy calls at least 3 weeks out. Using the MACD indicator and the RSI indicator I found the following signs to hint at incoming upwards price action. 1. MACD Slow (signal) and Fast line in uptrend with signal line outside of shaded area (fast line/histogram positive). 2. RSI is in an uptrend. If we assume the higher low will be followed by an upwards spike or at least another higher low. - Additionally the %delta of the recent local bottoms of the RSI line is bigger than the %delta of the local bottoms from the price action, this shows aggressive buying from the bulls. Aside from that there are a few present and upcoming macro factors that could indicate an upcoming increase in volatility. A few to note: - Nov contract expiration on friday - Cryptocurrencies market under pressure - TVC:USOIL under pressure - a few FOMC meetings next Wednesday Nov 24th On the other hand, historically, the day before Thanksgiving (market closed) has proven to be a bullish day. So if the gains are good the next following days you might want to take profit sooner than usual or buy further out expiration and wait for the first week of December that has also been historically weak.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by bimmeresty
2
UVXY - Patience for EntryUVXY is setting up again... Unfortunately it spends 90% of its time Below the Equator. Settle is a rough patch for the Ultra-Violet ETF. The VIX Index is currently trading @ 16.19 VXX Futures Contract @ 16.50 These 2 will meet and greet today. Kiss and say adios and hand the $ to Mr. 2 who will become Mr. 1 96% of the VX Complex will reside in VXZ... 96%. The Clowns who manage the ETC will continue to make extremely Poor Positional choices as they always have, it is unending. The 21st of November is lining up for UVXY for TIME. It has been over 377 Trading Days since the VIX Peaked. 233/233 is completing - The Up / Down / All-Around Count I keep for the VX Complex, including UVXY... Well, it has that going for it. Not good, a FIB Spiral... exceeding a large Extension. This has not occurred, and why "Hope Floats" by the Numbers. _______________________________________________ Suggesting it is overdue... @ 233/233 Silly numbers
CBOE:UVXY
by HK_L61
3
VIX - (VXX) Settles tomorrow - VXZ @ 96% TomorrowUnfortunately, although the Spread has been cut in half, there will remain the usual Gap Fill to complete as VIX INDEX (Cash/Spot) will square Price at the end of tomorrow's Session. VXX will equal the VIX Index. _________________________________________________________ Wednesday's will show, surprise, another Gap on the Continuous Contract. The Gap will be at the 4 PM EST Closing Square Price. _________________________________________________________ UVXY Fans will not be amused once again. As the UVXY will be front-loaded in new Decay and perhaps new Lows around 13.89, should 14.46 let go. This is why the UVXY spends the majority of its time going South. Unless, of course, there is an Event, then... Katy Bar the Doors. Katy is a known Degenerate. _________________________________________________________ Time to trade the VX Complex passed last week, a Retracement did not develop, although by appearances - it did appear Probable. Wall Street taketh away. The One time a Month the Vix can go Vertical came and went. _________________________________________________________ Where does this leave us? Where else, defensive with a healthy dose of patience and Cash. _________________________________________________________ On a Positive note - An accident is very close. China's got Probs, Bigguns. Actually the "positive" would be simply a gain in Position Capital. Positive... yeah, naw. Not at all as, bad arrangements - Este es Muy Mal por Hente in Todo. _________________________________________________________ Probability favors a consolidation, but Tuesday has been ALGO Grinder day for months on end, so we shall see how Yields behave at 8 AM EST tomorrow, prior to placing any Degenerate Bets @ the Flamingo. _________________________________________________________ Today behaved as if Price is Consolidating. For What, Magic 8 Ball suggested - "Ask again later"
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61
15
UVXY - We Indicated the Tomato had not Completed Price ObjectiveTo the chagrin of Levered Bettors and Debtors... UVXY does precisely what it is designed to do. Extract Capital from the Bonfires of Bearish Mentalities. It isn't done either. New Lows for 2021 are ahead - 15.78 has printed, continuing the Ride down the LTL on the Weekly Timeframe. ___________________________________________ A simple rule... never in front of FOMC Minutes should one be Long... never. And Never with Time Prems in DECAY. Time isn't on your side but a few days a Month... Use it or Lose it. We indicated Lower Lows ahead - they are trading to Price Objectives, albeit at a Glacial Rate. 398 Bips of VX Spread on Settel was a very large CLUE.
CBOE:UVXY
by HK_L61
27
VIX - Day 190 Curve Contango / VXX / VVIX / UVXYThe VIX Roll Yield was 398 Ticks of Spread on Settlement. It has since come into 336 Ticks VX1/M1 over Spot. The Curve has remained in Contango for the second-longest period since the creation of the Volatility Complex in 2004. 273 Days remains the prior longest Contango Duration. ___________________________________________________ Roll Yield close over 20%, the mean is ~ 8.55%. More than 2X the average. This implies the continuation of the current period of sustained lower Volatility. Intra-Day, compression brought the M1/M2 into Backwardation a few weeks back, on Close, it traded back to Contango. ___________________________________________________ Traders are clearly Trend following, comfortable with the VOL Crush as Vol of Vol (VVIX) traded through 105 tp 102.36. VVIX traded to 100.06 on October 21st during the 15:00 Hourly Bar. The Spread Gap to close for the Continuous Contract has a great deal or room to resolve. 2021 the VX Curve Trend has been Lower, as it was from the ATH made in 2020. A Daily Downtrend with a clearly defined Price Objective @ 12.25. ___________________________________________________ Chasing WaterFalls has paid in the VX Curve as Sellers have seen a continual decline, with few interruptions. ___________________________________________________ The VXX (Constant Rolling 30 Day Maturity) is making new lows. Price will again on NYSE OPEN - IF the Globex Price Levels hold from the O/N Ramp and Camp. 20.75 will be exceeded to the downside. Uber Kink - UVXY - has made another All Time Low @ 15.70 while continuing to Ride the downward slopping Lower Weekly Trend Line. There are a great many "This is It~! (TII) moments in the 1/5X levered UVXY. It has its teeth pulled long ago when the 2X was cut by 33% to current levels of 30 Day - All in Positions on VX which has been systematically Crushed. Positioning for the Big Lick there has been met with "Capital Relief"... ___________________________________________________ For now, AND this is subject to change... Wall Street has the VX complex well contained. How much longer will it last? It will depend, of course, on how the next two weeks unfold through the Meat of EPS. We have the FED and further Taper Talk into early November ___________________________________________________ The VX Complex moves "Out of Balance" - only to be brought back into "Balance" once everyone has begun Whale Watching Portside. Starboard list is approaching. ___________________________________________________ There are a number of concerns building within the Equity Complex, how long will they require to resolve... will depend on how carefully worded Companies reporting temper their "Inflation Warnings."
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61
2
Time to sell SPY/Buy VIX imo.Hi folks! If you believe that technical analysis has any prediction power at all (I highly doubt that it has in any other environment than highly speculative ones due to self-fulfilling prophecy) and you are net long the S&P500, then you might want to rethink. - Very soon (possibly) testing broken trendline from march 2020 - Massive divergence on volume since trend broke (Volume follows VIX - not a good sign!) - Massive divergence on RSI - VIX at very low levels In addition to this, the money flow indicator - usually a sound fundamental indicator - shows a serious divergence. Add that to the macroeconomic picture and the pricing (much more important than the other factors I just stated), and it would be a rather compelling case for selling the broad U.S. stock market. I got rid of my last long exposure to U.S. stocks now and loaded up on VIX futures (VIXY) throughout this week - currently holding 85% (!) of my portfolio in such contracts- DYOR. NFA. I wish you all well! :) Never take the word of others as a given - and never take advise from someone without skin in the game.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TheDots
2
UVXY - Call Buyers @ 18.00 - 11/12/21 for $1.40 / $950KThe "Bet" @ $1.40 for a 10.34% move higher. An ST correction position into UVXY. With widespread Contango in the VIX Curve and a wide spread on Wednesday's settlement, this appears low probability. Price is overdue to correct as many short term durations are at the top of their ranges for many indications. It will be interesting to see the ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF reverse as it has failed another 3X Low breakdown. VVX making new lows for this Quarter tends towards seeing a relief, the issue is from where. Friday's... placing positions on a Friday within the Volatility Complex has inherent Risk as the end of the week is used 76% of the time to Crush Volalitliy on Low Participation. After last night's EPS Horror Show, will it stick? SOH here as the VX Complex remains under pressure until it does not. Momentum is waning in nearly every Sector.
CBOE:UVXY
by HK_L61
26