UVXY - Call Buyers @ 18.00 - 11/12/21 for $1.40 / $950KThe "Bet" @ $1.40 for a 10.34% move higher.
An ST correction position into UVXY.
With widespread Contango in the VIX Curve and a wide spread on
Wednesday's settlement, this appears low probability.
Price is overdue to correct as many short term durations are at
the top of their ranges for many indications.
It will be interesting to see the ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF
reverse as it has failed another 3X Low breakdown.
VVX making new lows for this Quarter tends towards seeing a relief, the issue
is from where.
Friday's... placing positions on a Friday within the Volatility Complex has inherent
Risk as the end of the week is used 76% of the time to Crush Volalitliy on Low Participation.
After last night's EPS Horror Show, will it stick?
SOH here as the VX Complex remains under pressure until it does not.
Momentum is waning in nearly every Sector.
UVXY
The beginning has already startedThis isn't financial advice because i'm not a licensed financial advisor.
I think we can all feel the fishiness thats been in the air like a sewage spill into the ocean.
I'm confident that we've seen the top of 4945.50 and for now theres no turning back.
Nothing is transitory in the world that we have the pleasure of inhabiting in the era that we are at.
US CPI is still charging forward, shortages still a thing, so many people quit their jobs in the month of August and there is no reporting on it because everyone is focused on what been gained.. which is far below estimates.
World wide economy is in shambles, China is making it seem like they have everything contained, The US is making it seem like everything is contained when in actuality nothing is contained and it's all spewing out.
Take this post with a bearish take if you will because I think things through with logic and I don't know how anyone can look at conditions as they are (world wide) with logic and think that things will get better.
Maybe we rally into ATH and I'm completely wrong. In a world of "investing" theres no one thats 100% right every time. In reality to be a good "investor" it's knowing how to cut your losses and being right at least 50% of the time and letting your gainers run for the hills.
The gamma skew in the call VS puts is exactly where it needs to be to see a major downside, when everything is going up and theres nothing to support that but an endless piggybank, sooner or later the pretending ends and theres a mass of disappointment.
Monthly RSI just popped back above 75, weekly RSI is ~55 range so there is massive potential for further downside, the question in my mind is what will be the "narrative" to get the pyramid to crumble.
Remember, the hedgehog knows one big thing and the fox knows many different things.
Are you a fox or a hedgehog?
That's all folks
Volatility - VIX 40+ TomorrowIdea for VIX:
- Today the SPX dropped over 1%, yet VIX did not budge, VX futures and SKEW dropped off into the close instead.
- SKEW which had been elevated previously has dropped during the last 2 VIX spikes, yet VIX is not stopping its advance, nor are indices stopping their decline.
- At the very last second of the close, Biden signed a bill which would prevent the US government shutdown until Dec 3. This could not have been known, unless one had inside knowledge. However, this does not lift the debt ceiling. It changes nothing.
- GEX has reached its lowest level ever, signaling low gamma exposure (hedges in place) and that hedging that begins now will greatly affect the underlying price of the market.
- VIX futures term structure is in deep contango. Only when it reaches backwardation would it signal a potential top for VIX.
- JPM has rebalanced a large position today, but we don't know what the delta of their new position is.
Insiders, who have erroneously conflated their knowledge of policy as invincibility, have taken off their hedges, believing that they have beaten the game and the Fed and Congress to once again lift the markets.
Insiders, who have grown complacent, have bought the dip, and are exposed. Another move down will cause them to become forced sellers.
Insiders, who only know corruption, will learn that the gamma squeeze also works to the downside.
Tomorrow it will be known that Volatility, not the Fed, is King.
GLHF
- DPT
Market reversal up2 days ago I said to go long and now I'm aceing.
I see the same continuation of this, for 2 reasons:
1. News are throwing bearish news still which should trap/fuel the rise more against the shorts
2. The same pattern (Psychological social talks) is the same, meaning the same 'tricks' and/or games that the same people/news have done is being reused. I see this no different than other dips.
Congratulations if you're in, I see a retest of ATH soon
Long UVXY OpExIdea for UVXY:
- We are in the WINDOW OF WEAKNESS (OpEx, FOMC).
- Now we have made a Right Shoulder and DCH on Indices, the nature of today's rally appeared too quick and corrective in nature against the dominant cycle:
- Price first appeared to have easily broken back into the wedge, yet fell back out in the end of the day, indicative of a possible TRAP before QUAD WITCHING.
- Price offers a QUALITY psychological stop, should it easily rise over 4500 (in which case it should rise to the top of the wedge).
VIX trendline with the wick below:
- We give it another try:
Long UVXY 25C Oct 15
GLHF
- DPT
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Monthly Dip on SPX?Hey everyone! I’ve been watching SPX to swing trade UVXY over the last couple of weeks, and I’ve noticed an interesting trend occurring. About around the first third of every month, we’ll hit the top trend line and bounce down to the bottom line. So far it’s proven to be accurate with surprising regularity, starting in about mid-June
Should we begin to bounce off the bottom trend line in the next few days, feel free to ride SPX up, and then keep your eyes peeled in October for a good opportunity to short, or, as I would recommend, buy UVXY!
Happy trades!