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Oil Playbook ( 2021 )Prices for Crude Oil are down -20% from last year which means the bearish outlook is priced in. The bearish outlook is that the -16% drop in consumption outweighs the -7% drop in production plus the 4% increase in inventory stockpiles. Bulls want to know if demand has bottomed or not and since consumption tends to be highest in Jan-Feb, it might have further to fall since travel is still lagging. However, exports have recovered and circling back, the -20% discount in crude prices indicate the market is fundamentally balanced given the uncertainty. Production 2019 Average: 12,197 2020 Average: 11,318 %Change: -7.76% Stockpiles 2019 Nov: 1,918 2020 Nov: 2,003 %Change: +4.24% Consumption 2019 Average: 1,070 2020 Average: 916 %Change: -16.81% Exports 2019 Average: 8,471 2020 Average: 8,407 %Change: -0.76% Trading Strategy Swings in the dollar index are primarily moving prices so this will create the trading opportunities in the near term. Get ready. There is a momentum divergence on the DXY daily chart and the RSI has some room to run. Crude prices have reached a resistance level. If the Dollar index does start to rally then crude prices are going to waterfall. Best to wait for a decisive candle closing below the 10 day EMA before making a short trade. Trading is risky. Don't do it. Long oil/gas producer equities KMI, LUKOY, EQT
NYMEX:CL1!
by trade-God
Crude Oil - Technicals AloneThere's too much noise. Covid lockdowns, vaccine hopes, China trade retaliation, etc. Technicals: There was a break out of the wedge that most traders have drawn out however, I think it's more likely price breaks back down in order to build momentum for the next move higher. Ideally, there could be some good buying opportunities around the 200 EMA on the 4hr chart. If I'm wrong then I'd like price to break above the previous high, $41.63, before I start buying.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by ryan-snk
2
Crude Oil - Roni BaloniOil likely to remain range bound until the Covid situation is clear. All eyes on New York. www.worldometers.info $40 is the top of the range. Somewhere between $28 and $35 is the bottom. Waiting for a bounce to start buying dips and then taking profits near the top of the range. Roni Baloni: If things aren't as bad as they seem and a daily candle closes above $40.50 I'll look to buy. Longer term target is $62.50 Roni Apocalypse: If there is a complete meltdown and a daily candle close below $28 target is then $10.50
NYMEX:CL1!
by ryan-snk