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A macro bottom on Bitcoin is either close or already in- MAIN INFORMATION - Everything that follows is merely a simple study and does not constitute financial advice. Every first of the month, over the past few years, I take a look at a useful free indicator on the index chart of BTCUSD called "Accumulation/Distribution - with markers" to determine whether the slope is going up or down. When the indicator goes up, BTCUSD is generally in a macro bullish trend, when it reverses, BTCUSD is in - or is soon to be in - a correction territory. Keep in mind this is a monthly chart, and as far as I've witnessed, while I believe this analysis to be extremely valid on this timeframe, you'll find it losing its value on lower ones. All four red lines plotted mark the beginning of a downwards movement of this asset. The magnitude of each correction is measured from the close of the candlestick where the signal is fired off, to the wick of the following ultimate bottom. When does the signal fire off? On the candlestick closure matching the change in direction of the indicator, specifically in this case, when it reverses to the downside. The point of this analysis is not to be able to sell the exact top of a bull market, so don't get distracted by the timing imprecision of the signal, although it's still generally fairly on point with such expectation in mind as well. What brings us the most value here is the actual average retracement, that helps us to determine whether to look for a reversal to the upside relatively soon. Note that while there still is no guarantee that BTCUSD has indeed put a macro bottom on November 2022, I included the current correction this asset is experiencing in the calculation of the average retracement. Without taking this running fourth iteration into consideration, the result would be extremely similar, being a -69.08% instead of a -68.60%. The ultimate point of this analysis is to be wary for when the indicator slope changes to the upside, which would signify a very high chance (technically 100% for now, but there are just four iterations available, so take that with a grain of salt) that the bull market is officially resuming, and another macro bottom is finally in. - ADDITIONAL INFORMATION - While I don't think it's necessary to turn this into a more complex study, if you wish to look for additional information, check out the YouTube channel "Eric Krown Crypto", he has a slightly different approach than mine on this matter but has a lot of valuable knowledge to offer. I want to clarify that I'm not affiliated with the person running that channel, but I've learned a lot from him over the last four years, so I'm giving credit where credit is due, while - hopefully - helping you.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Andewyl
Good news for stocks, bonds are bottoming $JNKAMEX:JNK is an ETF that tracks rated high-yield bonds or "junk bonds". These are the bonds rated Ba1 & BB+ by Moody's Investors Service, Inc., & Fitch Inc. respectively. The bullish divergence with the ROC is pointing out that a bottom is near. Bonds bottoming is a good sign for the market and breakout to the upside should confirm a healthy uptrend for stocks. This ETF has a high correlation with the AMEX:SPY ; 0.7021 for the last 3 years, so, let's wait and see.
AMEX:JNKLong
by dpuleo19
April 2023 - $5600 Bottom, Start of A New CycleOk so basically Dollar Milkshake Theory + Central Bank Incompetence + Monthly PA + Sep/Oct 2018 PA = bottom not in. Oh and also a giant global debt bubble (good luck using credit or cash when this pops). BoE bond buying will accelerate GBP collapse along with other currencies since its inflationary. Also, Fed won't pivot and will only neutralize the market up until elections are over. They will not care about UN requests and whether it crashes at this point since they don't represent you and are not held accountable. Also they would love a world where they are the buyers and lenders of last resort. I'm predicting a $5600 bottom around April of 2023, assuming things start collapsing soon, and then from there we moon to new ATH in about 3 years to around $120,000. This is assuming debt bubble collapse which would force money to start looking for alternative paths. Crypto being the big one and it will start to be seen as a safer asset. Also, people love speculating and Millenials still have Trillions of Dollars to inherit (and they love crypto). Ultimately, these hedge funds/institutions work for these families with money. If you draw the trendlines as I have, with log scaling, it looks like BTC is in an upward channel. It would make sense to touch the key level marked in green around $5600. This is a key level as you can see on the graph and respecting this level would legitimize the 2019 - 2021 cycle. Below this level would be another $3k retest but it just seems very unlikely accounting for where adoption is now. Taking the trendline of the cycle from 2019 bottom to 2021 top and extrapolating it on a bottom around April 2023 actually ends up nicely touching the top of the channel. 100k will be a strong psychological barrier and therefore, it could result in a nice short squeeze and run up to the $120ks (top of channel). This is the first time crypto has actually been in a bear market and calling bottom now around this 20k range is naive at best. Also macro is on the cusp of the typical 100 year depressive debt cycle. Don't take it from me though -- I listen to Dalio. $10k will be a nice bounce back up to right before $20k only to be rejected for another low to my bottom target. Enjoy and may the odds be ever in your favor!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by KDC007
10
BTC Bull Flag Breakout or Re-Test of Cycle Lows?This monthly chart of Bitcoin shows we're either setting up for a Bull-Flag breakout, or potential breakdown to re-test the $15k-$16.5 lows. Either way, I think the bottom is in or almost in. The big questions is whether we see the re-test like in the 2015-2016 bottom, or push through and never look back like in 2019. If we push higher here and have a daily close above $25,300 then it's likely a quick push higher to the $30k zone, where we'll see profit taking and a pull back to the new higher support. Our proprietary ERI indicator (Green Arrow) is showing that the bottom is in (which also signaled Green in all 3 prior market cycle bottoms). So we're waiting to see what happens in the coming weeks. Our TSI indicator has also turned Green and heading higher. The confirmation will be the break above the 20% line on the monthly chart. The third confirmation will be our Signal line turning from Red to Green, and crossing the mid-line (Olive). These have been accurate in all prior market cycle bottoms, but as we all know, 'this time could be different'.. That being said, I trust our indicators and analysis... So we'll see. Also waiting for the monthly MACD to break above the center line and turn Green. Thoughts, comments, feedback? Please share below.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by BrettFogle
Natural Gas prints an RSI bullish divergence As you can see in the chart, natural gas had a big downside movement for the last months. Now It looks like the bottom is printed so I will consider entering a long here with targets 3.11$ and 4.69$ . You can see apart from the Bullish Divergence that It is starting to show a lot of strength, you can observe a gap-up between 2.314$ and 2.415$. For the buy setup I will enter now and set an stop loss order under the gap. If the position goes well, I will keep locking profits manually trailing the stop under key areas. Don't forget to share your thoughts on the comments and happy emotionless trading.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by piccard54
"The Bottom is IN!" . . NOT | BTC BeatdownIf I hear "The bottom is in" one more time I'm gonna run my nails down the chalkboard before erasing the rest of Bitty's vaporous LT gains. It's a BEAR MARKET and the carnage isn't over, but bulls never learn and the fundamentals mean nothing to speculative and pleb news craved junkies. 1. Long bottom wicks ENGULF, more times than not. So guess what? More down eventually even if the PPT steps in to protect the institutions (which need to be institutionalized obvi) at current level. 2. Core Scientific : Google it. At one point they provided roughly 10% of BTC's hashrate according to Coin Bureau Guy. 3. Bitty just sucks, it still too slow, too expensive and uses too much power. * * * Not investment advice, and DYOR, or don't, and listen to the fools in cryptochat * * * Box owt
by FudBox
12
Has the US Dollar just Bottomed?Hey Traders so today it looks like on the charts the US Dollar could be forming a bottom. It's funny because in the last video I said crude and commodities could be bottoming. But in trading you should never get too bullish or bearish. Never look at the market from only one side because history shows markets are always changing. When we take a risk in my opinion the key is to try and find the right side of the market to be on. Well as of today I am no longer bullish on crude but I am now a US Dollar Bull because of what I have now just seen on the chart! Enjoy! Trade Well, Clifford
ICEUS:DX1!Long
by TradetheFuturesCharts
3
FSLY - Could betTurning the cornerFSLY is reporting earnings today AMC (After Market Close). In the last 2 days, it gapped and short up a whopping 36% from 9.87 (last Friday's close) to 13.43 yesterday. Could it be accumulation by those who might already 'know" that earnings could surprise to the upside? However, at current price, whether FSLY continue to run up after earnings or "sell upon news" remains to be seen. What is more important is that the longer term price recovery is likely to be underway owing to how the stock has been behaving: 1. Rounding base has been forming in the last 9 months with its 200 day MA slowly flattening out 2. Went above its 200 days Moving Average since above 2 weeks ago (dipped back below only briefly ) 3. Golden Cross approaching 4. The huge volume and gap up on 13 Feb could be a potential breakaway gap (though we can only confirm on hindsight). Unless earnings disappoint greatly and send the stock crashing badly again, it could be time time to accummulate on near term dips, especially if it can hold above yesterday's candle low @ 12.16. (sign of strength if it it does not dip below here, no go it dips sharply below) However, being a penny stock, % movement can be huge (both ways) hence suggest not to not oversize in order to withstand volatility with trailing stops catering to least 10% - 12% pullbacks. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NYSE:FSLYLong
by Juliac
2
CRWD ~ Inverse H&S built, ready to pop higherHere's a 30m chart to highlight detail of the inverse head and shoulders built on CRWD. Green line weekly support goes back to the lows of August 2020. Purple box is a large daily gap left from late last year up to $138 area. If looking from peak to trough of the head and shoulders, it's roughly $16 from neckline to low of the head, in a breakout of neckline it could be considered within an expected move to move a similar distance to the upside. That's around the 124.00 area. If looking at the daily chart, LBR momentum indicator is showing a slowing of downside momentum, further adding that a short term bottom may be put in here. Daily RSI is right around 50 as well so there is room to go higher without hitting "overbought" levels. Earnings are a bit away still. No position currently, but will be looking to open one soon depending on price action.
NASDAQ:CRWDLong
by Cheesy-Bean_and_Rice-Burrito
TLMUSDT inverse head and shouldersThe price is testing the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders. The price created the rounded bottom pattern as well. How to approach it? the price needs to create a breakout from the neckline with volume and retest it as new support, so According to Plancton's strategy , we can set a nice order ––––– Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ black structure -> <= 1h structure. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Long
by InkyGrip
14