Get started

Vaccine

Entry of the gladiatorsWonderful bullish news! There is a vaccine. The economic activity can soon go back to normal. The question now is how do we make it obligatory? Crazy antivax conspiracy theorists are saying that because it is a rushed & untested vaccine and entirely new technology that affects ARN and contains heavy metals that can breach the blood-brain barrier we should let people choose if they want to take it. Haha ridiculous, they probably think the earth is flat am I right? We have no other choice, if we do not all take the vaccines millions will die, they do not only put themselves at risk by refusing to take it but they also put others at risk. You know why we can trust pharmaceutical giants even though there is a major scandal every 2 weeks where they caused harm to make money? Because there are now laws that make them immune against any consequences if there are long term negative effects. Isn't that great? So now they can work with a clear mind and only focus on producing a vaccine as fast as possible to maximize profit without having to worry about any annoying long term side effect! And officials clearly have our best interest at mind even though they might have a few millions in conflict of interests. Why do I know this? Well the fact that Philippines have kicked out and want to punish Sanofi for selling to them an extremely dangerous & inefficient vaccine against Dengue, while the European Union have fully allowed this vaccine which we'll have the pleasure to get access to if we get a Dengue outbreak in Europe because they do not believe in conspiracies and want people to be healthy. Of course Ursula has our best interests at mind. So does Joe. The Philippines are just conspiracy nuts and anti-China racists obviously. Ok yes, every single child out of hundreds that took the Dengvaxia dropped dead and so what? Never heard of coincidences? Just because there is a correlation does not mean there is a crazy conspiracy theory silly. Children die all the time in the Philippines as it is a third world country. People are losing their minds simply because Germany has passed an infection protection law, ridiculous, they say it reminds them of the 1933 enabling act. It's not the same silly, it is called "infection protection law" not "enabling act to solve the distress of the people", see? Entirely different. Schlomo Goldstein is hiding in a cellar; this is insane! People have gone completely paranoiac! And they don't believe in science and facts but primitive conspiracies. Schlomo should get on that train for his own good. The stories that "people are never seen again" and "the german government is sending all jews to concentration camps", how crazy does this sound to you? How can people imagine such insanity? Independent fact checkers have been to Auschwitz and Dachau and gave these vacation camps a 5 ✡️ out of 5. The official claim from our independent fact checking sources is "The vacation camps of Auschwitz and Dachau are wonderful places and all of our independent fact checkers financed by facebook had a great time there, we are giving them a full recommendation". See? There is nothing to worry about. We are on our way to a great time of peace, prosperity, and health.
NASDAQ:GILD
by MrRenev
5
USDJPYLooking to play the vaccine news fade trade that has played out the last 2 pops on positive results catalyst. Post move we had a second bullish day but on low volume which indicates the run was mostly due to a lack of bearish pressure. That pressure was slowly building yesterday and we can see this in the general movement of the candles but a solid clue is the 3.8k bullish volume spike at 15:30 yesterday that failed to really move price. That volume went on supplying the bears more than creating a positive direction change. As we started todays session the daily high was set and failed and price hasn't been able to provide evidence of a move higher since. I'll be looking for another bullish volume spike that gives us a move back into the range so we can get the short at the best possible price. It will be crucial to watch the candles closely to make sure we are seeing failure around the entry point. RuckSack.medium.com
Short
by RuckSack
1
gold still bearish on no US stimulus and covid-19 vaccine news I understand that many people are still bullish on gold which is perfectly fine. Many wouldn't agree with me that 1700 is the best buying zone. It is in confluence with a strong demand zone and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level - of a long 2020 bull run since the beginning of the year - is in the Zone. As for the traders who use moving averages to analyse price action, the 200-day moving average is just below the 1800 level. This is the only support that stopping the price of gold from getting to the 1700 level. I expect some form of consolidation above the 200 day moving average before heading lower if there will be no us stimulus under a standoff in the us senate if the Democrats fail to win the two Georgia runoff Senate seats. Of course in the long run expect gold to head for $3000 Short-term 🎯 $1765 $1725 $1700
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by GrizzlyBearBee
EURUSD - Break of Ascending ChannelEURUSD had been moving within a tight ascending channel for a week or so, finally managing a break to the downside yesterday. After several visits to the 1.19 region, it is apparent this is a tough level to break. Price is currently resting on an area of noticeable support/resistance. I am expecting this zone to break, following which we should see an initial decline to last week's low at around the mid 1.1700's. Should fundamentals permit, we could see a continuation to the November low at around the 1.16 psychological. Coronavirus concerns combined with vaccine news and also the ongoing Brexit situation will likely be factors contributing toward/hindering any moves lower.
Short
by MMQ_FX
3
ZM Earnings AnticipationZM is gearing up for a good move ahead of their earnings report November 30. Currently flagging, it is looking to clear a 419 resistance + breakout before pushing up to its next resistance around 446 to 451. If it can clear this level, it may attempt to fill the gap (modestly at the next resistance 477.50, or aggressively at 482.50). Ahead of their earnings, and with further shutdowns due to the virus looming, this could potentially be a large move for ZM. It has shown us in the past that it can perform well, both earnings-wise and market-wise. Keep an eye out for any new vaccine updates as this may negatively affect ZM's movement if the news is good, or vice-versa.
NASDAQ:ZM
by nmatto
Disney and 'Big Techs' Reacted Differently to Great Vaccine NewsDisney, McDonald's and 'Big Techs' Reacted Differently to Great Vaccine News On Monday, markets were woken from a nap by an unexpected welcome surprise. With one accord, and for a few hours, the trading community even seemed to have entirely forgotten all the threadbare media refrains concerning the U.S. election agenda. A set of major European indexes soared by five to seven percent, quickly starting to storm all of their respective multi-month top levels, with the French CAC40 exceeding the best summer quotes, and the U.S. broad market S&P500 index even hit its new record all-time highs. The reason for such agitation was the fresh and really breakthrough results of an anti-COVID vaccine. Headquartered in New York now and founded by German-Americans, a well-reputed pharmaceutical corporation called Pfizer, in cooperation with its close partner, a German bioengineering company BioNTech, declared their experimental COVID-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective on the third and final stage of trial results. There are still some questions to be answered surrounding the matter, such as, how long is immunity expected to last, but the base information was that Pfizer expects to seek U.S. emergency use authorisation for people aged 16 to 85 as soon as November. By the way, the skills of Pfizer Co were applied to the mass penicillin production during World War II in response to the need to treat injured Allied soldiers, and most of the penicillin that went ashore with the troops on D-Day was made by Pfizer. And now it seems that the company is going to save lives and economics against the harmful coronavirus. “I’m near ecstatic,” Bill Gruber, one of Pfizer’s top vaccine scientists, said in an interview. “This is a great day for public health and for the potential to get us all out of the circumstances we’re now in.” Peter Horby, professor of emerging infectious diseases at the University of Oxford, commented: “This news made me smile from ear to ear. It is a relief to see such positive results on this vaccine and bodes well for COVID-19 vaccines in general.” The scientists just need to wait for the finish of a follow-up safety data to assure no side effects crop up, and the necessary results are expected to be available in the third week of this month. Alex Azar, U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary, remarked it would take several weeks for U.S. regulators to receive and process the data before a potential approval. If it would be granted, companies estimate they can roll out up to 50 million doses before the end of 2020, enough to protect 25 million people with 2 necessary injections, and then their plan is to produce up to 1.3 billion doses in 2021. Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the EU Commission, happily tweeted: "European science works! @EU_Commission to sign contract with them soon for up to 300 million doses. Let's keep protecting each other in the meantime." By the way, the European Commission currently has three contracts for the purchase of other potential coronavirus vaccines with AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson and Sanofi-GSK. "A major breakthrough in the development of a coronavirus vaccine could deliver a vital boost of confidence to consumers and businesses", the Bank of England’s chief economist, Andy Haldane, said. "The economy may have reached a decisive moment," he added, as the vaccine could be a “game-changer”. He cautioned that, of course, it would take several months for the vaccine to be rolled out but that it would have an immediate effect on sentiment, as it would mean an end in sight to the "endless stop-start-cycle" of all business processes helping to unlock investments. This news and commentaries may not serve as instant coffee, which could immediately cheer up the entire world economy, at least because the subsequent approval of the vaccine does not mean that the vaccine will be distributed to everyone who wants it in a week or even a month. But the new situation has already brought visible relief to the markets, although most of the various assets and composite indices failed to hold their initial gains of Monday evening. The S&P 500 index closed yesterday near the 3,550 point level, where it was also located by European midday on Tuesday. This is about 120 points below Monday's peak, and the index price was approximately 35 points lower at some moments in Asian trading. It seemed as if some share prices jumped for joy, like those of the Walt Disney Company, which rose more than 12% just after the opening bell. Walt Disney even traded above $147.50 for a short moment, which was just a little bit above the quotes of the beginning of February. Prices beyond $150 were last seen in December 2019, at non-pandemic times, and Disney never traded higher than that before. The House of Mouse' shares have been generally within a range between $115 to $130 since July, amid the unnatural but "new normal" social-distance obstacles that accompany the reopening of theme parks, which amounted to a third of all the cartoon empire's profit in previous years. Disney-themed cruises and hotels were also thriving on shared group experiences and suffering a lot after the forced closure of the resorts. A long pause in the running of worldwide movie theatres also influenced the revenue. Disney shares were already doing much better even before the news about the vaccine, but now they were seen to be flying up with a kind of crazy enthusiasm, and the following price correction reached only a local intraday bottom in the $138 area, and the next move was above $142.50 again. Walt Disney is going to report its earnings for the fiscal 2020 fourth quarter, meaning the financial results of Q3, after Wall Street will close on Thursday, November 12. Analysts in numerous polls are expecting about $14 billion in Q3 sales on average and $0.73 loss per share. A bright spot in the upcoming earnings could be the number of subscribers on Disney's streaming service, Disney+, which may continue to benefit from the stay-at-home environment. But perhaps the most important thing to look at going forward is how investors will react to prospects that will arise after the pandemic is over. . Some other shares behaved in a more controversial manner after the perspective of their financial report changed after the news of the vaccine yesterday. . For example, the movements of McDonald's share price were very emotional and rather surprising if compared with the last financial report just published before Wall Street’s Monday's trading session. The reported profit, in a form of equity per share (EPS), was $2.22, a historical record for McDonald's and much above the average expectations of just $1.91 per share. The company’s highest EPS was at $2.32 in 2017 and its highest quarter revenue for this year stands at $5.42 billion. So, the shares' price started to trade with a large gap of $227 per share, but a mass profit taking process immediately loomed , so the price quickly fell by more than $10 lower and then even continued to dive, hitting a twelve-week low at $208.30. Then the situation on charts became more stable around the closing price of $213.22. The fast food giant's massive network of drive-through locations helped to revive sales during the pandemic and on delivery apps orders when customers tried to avoid dining out during the pandemic. Now a positive effect of possible normalisation of life may play a role but rivals from the traditional restaurant segment will not fall asleep too. McDonald's CEOs said on Monday, they would test a "MyMcDonald's" digital loyalty program for customers to allow those who sign up to get tailored offers. Network restaurants are also planned to launch a new crispy chicken sandwich next year as it refocuses its long-term strategy after the pandemic. The world's largest burger chain plans next year to prioritise marketing, including new packaging globally with a "modern, refreshing feel and playful touches to unify branding in markets all over the world," it said in a statement. In terms of financial figures, McDonald's repeated its own achievement in revenue for autumn 2019, which was already high. So, it reached its normal revenue level, since the fast food network showed approximately the same figures in three quarters out of four last year. The revenue figures now turned out to be the highest for any quarter in the previous three years, but throughout 2016 and 2017, McDonald’s revenue figures were exceeded $6 billion in some quarters. Earnings per share were then lower; it ranged from $1.23 to $1.99 per share. That means sales structures have become more efficient since then. Such indication may allow forecasting a gradual movement to some higher targets for share prices in the next 12 months, provided that everything gets better with the COVID-19 situation. At the same time, further price movements of all index futures prices deleted most of yesterday's gains. Many "big techs" even lost some part of their giant capitalisation over the course of Monday's trade, including Amazon (-5.06%) or the so-called "stay-at-home" shares like Netflix (-8.59%). The market may doubt if they were overestimated to some extent under the condition that the vaccine may push the general public to more offline-activity after several months. Against this background, The Nasdaq 100 high tech index continues to lose its value, while the S&P dynamics are mixed today. Hopeful about a better future, many investors seem to be gradually returning to the realities of this transient world, where many countries still have partial lockdowns and viral cases, and there would probably be the lasting tension around the U.S. presidential seat. Donald Trump is showing no signs that he will engage in any power transition. Moreover, the sitting U.S. President unexpectedly replaced the head of the Pentagon. He tweeted that Christopher Miller, Director of the National Counterterrorism Centre, unanimously confirmed by the Senate at that position before, will be acting as Secretary of Defence. That information created a small turmoil in the market before the end of Monday's trade, as it may indicate Mr Trump's determination to strengthen the security forces for the case of street riots, for example, while his claims on alleged fraud with votes are considered by the court, and he announced that he has already formed the teams to pursue recounts in several states.
NYSE:DIS
by Frederico_FXAnalyst
Vaccine News! What Does this Mean for Stocks?News of the Moderna vaccine has sent stocks soaring this morning. Never mind the actual effectiveness of this 'vaccine', this is simply what the markets want to hear. The S&P has hit 3634, a fibonacci extension level and all time highs. The Kovach OBV looked like it was about to turn over, but has since upticked to reflect this move. The Kovach Chande has picked up dramatically. The S&P may see some resistance here, but it should have support at 3584, and 3547. If you did not enter this trade already, avoid FOMO, we are bound to see a retracement at some point.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
PFE Vaccine Hope UPDATEHello my friends, me again After this wild week, I wanted to update my previous PFE chart to scale the week ahead from a TA perspective. After the large run up we saw on Monday, I was certain we were making a break for it but the news came out that Pfizer CEO pawned off a large portion of his shares which brought overall price down. I still held my bullish mentality as the vaccine is our only glimpse of hope to get back to normal. We began to form a classic bullish flag as we descended downwards, but overtime it developed into a classic falling wedge pattern, as noted in blue (1 hour). We are breaching back over the top of the ascending triangle (yellow) which I previously deemed as a large support price which I believe should hold given the market stabilizes next week. In the background, you will notice a square grid pattern going on. This pattern is a combination of a Fibonacci retracement (up and down) and a Fibonacci time zone (left and right). I know many of you use the Fib retracement so I won't explain that, but the Fib time zone is quite uncommon so I will explain. The Fib time zone shows when price has potential to change in trend created off a previous swing in price. If viewed on the 1 hour, you will see that we just entered a new time zone which immediately jumped in price. I believe we will continue the run up not only through the 5th time zone but also steadily through the 8th time zone as well. Overall, I remain bullish PFE. TL;DR: -Positive trial 3 news = bullish -CEO sells off shares = bearish -Ascending triangle breakthrough (Yellow) = bullish -Falling wedge (blue, 1 hour) = bullish -Fibonacci retracement = Closed above, bullish -Fibonacci time zone (1 hour) = Entered 5th, bullish -MACD = Still bullish -RSI = Recent heavy oversell, bullish Feel free to add anything else/dispute what I have said. I am here to learn like the rest of you!
NYSE:PFELong
by The_Golden_Well
2
The Most Important Levels for XAU After The Vaccine AnnouncementIn this technical analysis I will go over all the most important horizontal zones for Gold and explain what you need to look at while the market is closing over the weekend. After a lot of news about the elections, and then the Pfizer vaccine news, the price of gold has moved a lot and showed great volatility. This creates fantastic opportunities for traders, which is why I am looking at gold now at more depth. There are very nice trading possibilities here, so let me walk you through the most important horizontal zones right now so that you can construct your own set-ups as well. Horizontal Support Level I The support zone here at the bottom of the chart is at the beautiful level of $1,850. A level not just strong based on the confirmation of price reversal that we have witnessed here. It is also important based on the psychological importance of being at an exact round number. I decided not to chart any additional support zone on the chart, as I consider the price of gold extremely low at the moment. After coming from an all-time-high we have seen a bearish movement. But after the massive dump on the 9th of November, I only see it going upwards from here. Horizontal Resistance Level I Given that I chart this idea based on the bullish scenario of a long position, I suggest looking at this area for a solid take profit level. I see two main options for taking profit, one is to leave the trade near the resistance line of the descending parallel channel, and the other is to hold until the first level of resistance. Horizontal Resistance Level II Horizontal Resistance Level II is a more aggressive place to hold gold to and take profit. When we look at the height of the price just before the massive dump on the 9th of November, we see another small peak that could turn into resistance too. Therefore, instead of holding to say ~$1,980, instead I suggest holding until ~$1,960 instead. Horizontal Resistance Level III This level is so far off the current price of gold that I would not suggest to use it for any trade set-up. Especially since this is a high volatility period, so many things can happen soon. I would suggest to enter relatively shorter trades to make sure you are able to update the chart often to include the latest information. Follow me for consistent high-quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Trading-Guru
4
Two options for Crude OilFollowing positive Vaccine news on Monday, investors are already buying into reflation trade ideas. This implies that it won't be long till the global economy bounces back once vaccine distribution starts next year. However, we are still far from having an approved vaccine. Therefore, US Oil has two narratives to go buy. Vaccine approval happens sometime next month and distribution starts next year. This implies that economic activity will recover fully. This is bullish case for oil. Global Oil supply is still high with OPEC members still trying to control oil supply as countries in the northern hemisphere head into winter with further pandemic-induced lockdowns reducing the demand. This is a bearish case for a minor correction. In the long run, I'll be looking to buy oil for a recovery to the $51-$55 level.
TVC:USOIL
by GrizzlyBearBee
PFE Pfizer GOING LOWERFrom the chart, there are 2 things that concern me : 1 - The bearish cross on the CMF (Chaikin Money Flow Indicator) Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is a technical analysis indicator used to measure Money Flow Volume over a set period of time. Money Flow Volume is a metric used to measure the buying and selling pressure of a security for single period. CMF then sums Money Flow Volume over a user defined look-back period. Chaikin Money Flow's Value fluctuates between 1 and -1. CMF can be used as a way to further quantify changes in buying and selling pressure and can help to anticipate future changes and therefore trading opportunities. 2 - The market gaps There is still a gap at $34 and market gaps are usually filled. Not even to mention the huge gap that had just occurred after the news of a successful vaccine candidate. PFE has exhibited high volatility during the past few months and each high is always followed by a huge sell of. It's like PFE just can't get ahead. That being said, if you're looking to buy PFE (because viagra isn't going anywhere), I'd be counting on the market gap at $34 as an entry point. Please support me by hitting like, wishing you successful trading! Best Regards, Ev
NYSE:PFEShort
by BlockTechEv
FX Update: Would a Covid-19 vaccine bring USD weakness forward?Summary: The news of a possibly effective Covid-19 vaccine jolted currencies in a sometimes confusing way, but beyond near term volatility, the rising promise of an effective Covid-19 vaccine might bring forward the longer term weakening of the US dollar. Today’s FX Trading focus: Are we on the cusp of an effective vaccine and what does that mean for the USD? The Pfizer announcement of very good results for its Covid-19 vaccine candidate has provided a real jolt to markets and to FX. At first, the news was taken as universally positive, boosting equities and crushing the USD, as well as US treasuries, JPY, CHF and gold safe-havens even more aggressively. But since then, a curious diffusion of that move has unfolded, with the US dollar more mixed, while the JPY and CHF remain weak as US long treasury yields are up near the post-Covid-19 highs. Why is the vaccine hope not universally being celebrated along the lines of reflation and across-the-board strong risk appetite? (For the below thoughts, we assume that the promise from this Covid-19 is confirmed in the coming weeks and months.) A Covid-19 vaccine means less stimulus (especially of the “money for nothing” variety and uncertainty that the central bank support under risky assets will be as profound as it would otherwise be. Given that the expected US political gridlock after the election results was supposed to mean that the Fed would be hyperactive in providing endless liquidity and support, the sharply higher US rates at the long end of the curve and implications for less stimulus as the end of Covid-19 lockdowns and restrictions means that stimulus could be tapered very aggressively next year. Oh, the irony of good news being bad for markets. The above triggering an ugly market liquidity event, with the added uncertainty that Republicans are backing Trump’s effort to challenge the US election results, although I’m not surehow seriously the market is taking this particular risk – not yet, but stay tuned on that front. Note the difference depending on the geography. US stocks – and the big tech stocks most notably – are clearly different animals relative to European stocks, which are profoundly higher after the announcement and remain bid in today’s session, even as the Nasdaq big tech stocks stumbled badly again today after coming sharply off their highs yesterday. See our Peter Garnry for his thoughts on the equity market reaction to this bit of news. But for the longer term, we continue to keep the focus lower on the US dollar, as I discuss below. First, a brief look at the USDJPY chart. Chart: USDJPY The yen was far and away the weakest currency yesterday, responding with a massive jolt to the downside just after its recent break higher versus the US dollar had likely triggered heavy new interest in long positioning. The reversal will likely stick as long as US long yields stick higher (see thoughts below on Fed yield curve control – higher US yield per se won’t necessarily support the US dollar versus the JPY if the Fed feels compelled to step in to keep them from going higher still due to inflationary pressures.) As with any knee-jerk reaction to news, this one requires taking with a grain of salt, and the subsequent price action here may not live up to the steepness of this bullish reversal. Against commodity currencies, however, the JPY could yet prove very weak if the reflationary narrative is boosted in coming weeks with higher commodity prices and the growing promise of a vaccine rollout. Yesterday, I indicated a struggle with the weak USD narrative based on the US election result, but the news of a possible Covid-19 vaccine could dramatically ease and bring forward the path to a weaker US dollar for the following reasons: Pent-up US savings – The US private sector stockpiled a large portion of the incredible stimulus blitz – by some estimates, some $2 trillion. If a path is open to fully reverting to “normal” pre-Covid-19 behaviour, this consumption would help drive enormous external deficits as the US imports a high percentage of its consumption basket. US Treasury has significant funds at the ready for stimulus – the Treasury has piled up over $1.5 trillion as it raised more money than it needed during the panic phase of the pandemic last year. The release of these funds will improves USD liquidity further as some form of stimulus will have to be forthcoming under a Biden administration to avoid a cliff-edge on some of the CARES act after December 31 and to prevent business closures. Also, given that the Treasury already has a good deal of stimulus money at the ready, it will mean that reduced fiscal stimulus after this winter and possibly spring made possible by a Covid-19 vaccine would mean a reduced need for US Treasury issuance, likewise a boost to USD liquidity. Fed will still prove slow to respond to rising inflation: With its new flexible average inflation targeting (AIT) regime, the Fed has promised it will be very tardy to respond to inflation eroding the value of the US dollar. At the margin, here is the additional risk that the Fed moves against higher US yields if the treasury sell-off deepens, fearing that higher rates will slow the recovery in the US labor market. If the Fed threatens yield caps, or yield curve control (YCC), this would crystallize the USD bears’ strongest argument: the erosion of the USD value on negative real rates. (Yield curve manipulation can come in many forms, in a soft way via QE purchase weightings or more explicitly in new YCC guidance). The G-10 rundown, express edition USD – discussed above, not convinced USD upside gets much traction even in short term unless market volatility goes truly ballistic. A clear path to a Covid-19 vaccine brings forward a weaker US dollar. EUR – if the Pfizer and other drugs continue to bring promise, great news for EUR, although strength could be modest as pro-cyclical beta is lower than for commodity- and EM F. JPY – the action is in cross-JPY (yen weakness) more than USDJPY as long as market celebrates an improved global growth outlook. GBP – need that Brexit breakthrough headline – and if Covid-19 vaccine hopes are sustained, EURGBP could have room for 0.8600 in short order, while 1.3500 is the big focus for GBPUSD, freeing up possibly 1.400. CHF – the Swiss franc punished as global yields spiked higher and safe haven gold out of favour. If we can get post-Covid-19, post-Brexit and a solid EU fiscal package, may be room for a larger adjustment higher in EURCHF. For now, the 1.0900 level is the next hurdle. AUD – if risk sentiment continues higher, AUD is well positioned for a post-Covid-19 boom if that is where we are headed. CAD – USDCAD is teasing the major 1.3000 chart point – a deepening hope for a global recovery would open the path lower (stronger for CAD). NZD – RBNZ is up tonight – and an interesting one. Expect “funding for lending programme” on track, but on the guidance, some chance for a hawkish shift as Governor Orr and company might want to extend the potential horizon for bringing a negative policy rate – or introduce doubt that they will go negative at all, given that the next couple of months could see the deepening promise of a Covid-19 vaccine. SEK – the weight of Covid-19 on Europe lifting would be a huge boon for SEK, hence EURSEK already teasing below 10.20 at times today and ready for a try toward 10.00 if sentiment backdrop remains positive. NOK – the path is open to the 10.36 range low in EURNOK and possibly more if oil can break above 46/barrel and the hopeful backdrop is maintained. Epic chart line in USDNOK don around 8.75 (price currently at 9.00). John Hardy Head of FX Strategy Disclaimer The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
by Saxo
Rotation from growth to value: updateAt the beginning of September I forecasted that we would likely see some rotation from growth to value in the next few months, and I laid out three target prices for the RSP (equal weight) to SPY (cap weight) ratio. This ratio has continued to behave fairly predictably, oscillating within its seven-month range and making fairly perfect touches of the target levels. Lately we've been making higher lows in this ratio, which suggests that it might be working itself up to an upside breakout. We've obviously achieved my first price target several times and tested the second target twice. the most recent test of Target 2 came this morning after Pfizer's vaccine news. In my opinion, Biden's victory and the prospect of an effective vaccine both make value rotation increasingly likely. The Democrats have talked of taking anti-trust action against large-cap growth companies, and a vaccine means pandemic growth winners like Amazon may soon see more competition from value companies with more in-person traditional business models. A vaccine of course won't change consumer behavior right away. It has to be approved, manufactured, and distributed. But I do think we will sometime soon take a run at Target 3.
Editors' picks
AMEX:RSPLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
3
PFE Vaccine HopeHello my friends, pardon my graph as it is a little messy so let me explain. First we see a massive ascending triangle marked on the graph in yellow. Many of us will know that this is a bullish indicator and that it should break through the top of the triangle. Within the ascending triangle I have marked many engulfing candle patterns noted in the white lines. These were quite helpful before the successful T3 results came in on Monday 11/10/2020. Since we have broke out of the triangle we won't be focusing on what is within the triangle but I will leave it there in a worst case scenario where we fall back within the triangle. For now, we can use the top end of the ascending triangle as a trigger for support. The biggest hurdle we are facing now is a breakthrough above 40 .00 and 40 .97, the next fibonacci retracement . I believe in a normal, healthy market, the news of this vaccine being a success would rocket the price up to the $45.00 range, but given that $SPY is at an ATH , the entire market is in a sell off mood. I believe that PFE has room to run up, it will require a lot of power to break through 40 .97 and hold. We might seem some consolidation between 38.50 and 40 .50 for a while until the next run up which will be the official release of PFE's T3 study and the official FDA approval, which will come around the end of November. So now, I see a good buy in location between 38.50-39.50 and to hold until the end of November when everything is officially released. If all goes well, I have a price target between $45.00 - $55.00 which is near the ATH for Pfizer . From there I am uncertain. I am bullish PFE , so the next run ups I see will be as follows: -Official stage 3 clinical trials results available to the public -FDA approval -First distribution of vaccine
NYSE:PFE
by The_Golden_Well
The Pfizer News: Hear it First!Stocks have blasted through new highs completely disregarding election drama and focusing solely on the Pfizer news. Indeed news of a 90% success rate in the vaccine has fueled a risk on frenzy. It is really difficult to "crystal ball" what's going to happen other than to say that a retracement is likely at some point. This news seems highly dubious and when that is priced into the markets we could retrace the entire move and then some. I'd be highly skeptical of this move. That being said, I would also not get in the way of this freight train. If you have an existing stock portfolio you should be singing right now. But I would also consider taking profits. We have just found resistance at a Fibonacci Extension level, which may prove to be a retracement. The Kovach OBV is incredibly bullish so there is a lot of meat to this rally.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
2
NVAX STOCKS DUMPED, DOWNTREND CONTINUESEarlier this year there was the question : How do you invest in Coronavirus vaccine stocks? Now, we have the answer : YOU DONT. Chart looking bleak, and the support lines are weak. This could be due to a few reasons: - Lack of MAINSTREAM updates - NVAX actually has no other vaccines - Market volatility due to covid and elections - Investors are seeking less riskier gains and getting out of stocks that do not look promising Other than the above, we have seen strange behavior with stocks of companies in the race. A few examples: PFE Pfizer stock not responding to numerous huge injections from government REGN Regeneron stocks hardly responding to Trump pimp GILD Gilead even FALLING after being the first company world wide to receive FDA approval for remdesivir as a treatment. AZN Astrazeneca in conjunction with Oxford has a trail candidate dead but stocks remain largely unaffected I think NVAX has potential in the long run, long term I remain bullish for the company fundamentally, but not for an investment choice right now. In fact I'd say that no vaccine stock is a good investment right now. The way the market reacts to news is too unpredictable and the future remains uncertain. Hit like if you found this insightful and helpful Thanks, Ev
NASDAQ:NVAX
by BlockTechEv
1