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VALE

VALE H&S FormationAfter a nice uptrend, Vale has stalled and formed a Head and Shoulders pattern. Notice the volume on the uptrend to the "head", increasing right? But notice after the stock hit support for the second time (after forming the head) the second shoulder move up is rather mixed. Volume tells us a little bit more on moves up rather than moves down. You don't need increasing volume for a move down, it's nice and supports the argument, but it's not necessary. Wait to buy until the stock moves below the blue support line with decent volume but more importantly ending the day near or at its daily low (shaven bottom). Stocks like to consolidate for a few days before moving down on patterns like this, so i would wait to see if the stock remains around the same price but Stoch & CCI indicators move higher. Next major support is at the $8.00 mark (38.2% retrace), with a drop through that finding support at $7.50 then just below $7.00.
NYSE:VALEShort
by myfye13
$AKS 161216C$10.50 BTO Calls@market open 121216 +161223C$12.00- Been swinging Call Options on AKS since week end 11616; Purchased 4 Calls (Strike Price 10.50) on the Market Open Monday AM w/ a Limit Order price of .29. - Averaged down w/ purchase of 6 more Contracts the following day w/ Lower Low (Consolidation) being set in @ limit price of .15. Held position - FED Hike in hopes of a Market/Metals Rally to no avail. - Holding 10 Call Contracts Avg. Price of .22 per and looking to match the gains failed to realize pre-hike at the least. - Looking to sell to Close the contracts on or near loss of 10, 20, 100 period MA w/ the 30 minute Chart Setup. - Do Believe After Hours activity will have all 3; including the EMA 4 & 8 period Moving Averages as support on the open. - If the 4period EMA has not crossed the 8 period EMA to the Upside; I will look to hold position until it does. - Slight chance on the 30 Minute Chart of a 50 period and 200 period Golden Cross(I believe so anyways); but WILL not Hold thru Friday 12/16/16 in hopes of seeing additional gains should it not occur Thursday 12/15/16. - Trade setup for following week or upon Total Gains >= 400% put in place w/ weakness following FED Hike and possible profit taking from medium/long term traders: - In lieu of adding more contracts to this weeks position, purchased a total of 10 Call Contracts w/ - AKS w/ a $12 Strike Price expiring 122316 for a .08 per. If further weakness occurs - End of Week, willing to add but ONLY if it AVG. Down my Call Contract prices (.09 after commission). As stated previously have been swinging, successfully mostly, this Ticker since one week following the election, along w/ AMD, CLF, VALE, RYI, FCX.
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by CaseybPoole
WEEK OF 11/20: HIGH IV IN PETRO UNDERLYINGS; NOT MUCH ELSEWHEREAfter having gone through my usual routine of screening for high implied volatility rank/high implied volatility underlyings for plays this coming week, one thing stands out: the implied volatility is in petro, with stocks like CHK, SDRL, WFT, PBR and the like rounding out my top 10 IV list.* With OPEC talks approaching here, and "friskiness" in petro-based underlyings likely to ensue, I'm loathe to pile into more petro, particularly if it involves a bullish assumption. The "more likely than not" outcome is no meaningful OPEC agreement as to cuts, which means oil down, which means further long opportunities below somewhere. If the contrarian outcome comes to pass (i.e., "meaningful cuts"), well, then I've just plain ass missed an opportunity to add long positions here and will have to make do with the bullish assumption positions I've got on here. That being said, the "Top 10" list isn't entirely bereft of possibilities, depending on your risk tolerance and aversion to roller coasters. For example, GPRO may be worth a bullish assumption play here on the notion that Christmas sales of its drones will be "brisk," something we probably won't know unless GPRO discloses its unit sales before its Q4 earnings announcement next year. The nearest to the 20-delta strike short put, 45 DTE, however, is the Dec 30th 8.5, which would bring in .36 ($36)/contract at the mid -- not exactly something that gets me excited. Even assuming I wanted to go nondirectional (short strangle/straddle, iron condor/fly), I can't squeeze enough out of those setups premium wise to make it worthwhile. VRX is, well, VRX. The Dec 30th 14.5 short put (currently the 19 delta) goes for .66 ($66) at the mid price. That isn't bad, but I have to put up with sitting on pins and needles for 5 weeks or more with that setup. The alternative would be to go with a defined risk setup (not keen on being caught undefined in a potential whipsaw). Even there, however, an iron condor won't pay out at least 1.00 in credit without forcing the wings in beyond the 1 SD (I prefer more room with volatile biotech), and I'm not sure that I would want to go with the narrower breakevens of a fly, in spite of the fact that the credit I'd receive at the door would be more than sufficient. (A Dec 30th 13/18/18/23 iron fly would bring in 2.78, for example). Well, what about AMD? That's in the list ... . Like its semicon counterpart, NVDA, AMD's been on a rip and the place to have gotten in was lower for a bullish assumption play (scratches "short put" off his list). And nondirectional doesn't pay enough: the Dec 30th 8.5 short straddle would bring in a 1.44 credit at the mid (I like to get at least 2.00 out of those); the 7/10.5 short strangle, .40 at the mid. Defined risk (flies, condors) will bring in even less. CLF? Same deal (can't get much out of the 45 DTE 20 delta short put; short straddle/strangle, iron condor/fly bring in too little premium). Ugh. Sometimes, these holiday weeks are best for hand sitting ... . Looks like this is going to be "par for the course." * -- The top 10 implied volatility stocks (in descending order): CHK, WFT, VRX, CLF, AMD, GPRO, PBR, RIG, VALE, CX, UNG.
AMEX:XOP
by NaughtyPines
The Force Behind Brazil's Recent Bullishness (Analysis on VALE)If you've been paying attention to headlines about Brazil recently, the term "impeachment" seems to be all over the place. But what's really driving prices upwards in the country's stock market? Is it the daily swaying impeachment probability or something else? Today's stock to be analysed is VALE, the Brazilian iron ore producer. The chart's left side is late October 2014, when president Dilma Rousseff got re-elected. As can be seen, Vale's stock price has since then maintained a close correlation with the price of the main product it sells. The analysis gets even more interesting when the stocks of other notable Iron Ore producers are plotted on the chart... Anglo-Australian BHP Billiton and US-Based Freeport McMoRan. So, what's really driving those prices more, Dilma or Iron Ore(rhymed!)? I'll stick with Iron Ore...
NYSE:VALE
by geraldelli
Vale:The Wait and See ApproachVale has been in a 4+ year long down trend. The good news is Vale put in a very strong bullish candle two weeks ago on huge volume, the bad news is Vale has followed that up with a reversal candle after failing to take out heavy resistance at the $9 level. Despite these reversal signs, it is possible for Vale to take a bounce to the upper trend channel in the $10-12 range which would set up an excellent shorting opportunity. Ideally I would like to see Vale close above $9 or at least make a very strong move towards $9 by the end of this week. On the other side of the trade, a close near or below $8 for the week would show a great deal of weakness and could be setting up for a drop to the $6 level. So to recap: A close above 9 we can look higher, a close below 8 we look lower. What should I analyze next? PM me or leave a comment below!
NYSE:VALE
by Ape
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