VALE
VALE Bullish SwingIf we can break from the pennant bullish, should continue up to next support/resistance level.
If it breaks bearish or continues sideways, I will look for a bounce off the 10 or 20 EMA
VALE Bullish SwingWe got above average volume today on the gap up. Though it's more of a gap and go, I'm looking for it to "fake" a retest of the support/resistance level I have at 8.09 It's likely to retest this level at some point within a week or two max. Hopefully quicker.
2R is just above the next resistance level, but the previous peak had two days in a row that hit the target price. If we hit the target quick enough, lots of room before the next strong resistance.
$AKS 161216C$10.50 BTO Calls@market open 121216 +161223C$12.00- Been swinging Call Options on AKS since week end 11616; Purchased 4 Calls (Strike Price 10.50) on the Market Open Monday AM w/ a Limit Order price of .29.
- Averaged down w/ purchase of 6 more Contracts the following day w/ Lower Low (Consolidation) being set in @ limit price of .15. Held position - FED Hike in hopes of a Market/Metals Rally to no avail.
- Holding 10 Call Contracts Avg. Price of .22 per and looking to match the gains failed to realize pre-hike at the least.
- Looking to sell to Close the contracts on or near loss of 10, 20, 100 period MA w/ the 30 minute Chart Setup.
- Do Believe After Hours activity will have all 3; including the EMA 4 & 8 period Moving Averages as support on the open.
- If the 4period EMA has not crossed the 8 period EMA to the Upside; I will look to hold position until it does.
- Slight chance on the 30 Minute Chart of a 50 period and 200 period Golden Cross(I believe so anyways); but WILL not Hold thru Friday 12/16/16 in hopes of seeing additional gains should it not occur Thursday 12/15/16.
- Trade setup for following week or upon Total Gains >= 400% put in place w/ weakness following FED Hike and possible profit taking from medium/long term traders:
- In lieu of adding more contracts to this weeks position, purchased a total of 10 Call Contracts w/ - AKS w/ a $12 Strike Price expiring 122316 for a .08 per. If further weakness occurs - End of Week, willing to add but ONLY if it AVG. Down my Call Contract prices (.09 after commission). As stated previously have been swinging, successfully mostly, this Ticker since one week following the election, along w/ AMD, CLF, VALE, RYI, FCX.
WEEK OF 11/20: HIGH IV IN PETRO UNDERLYINGS; NOT MUCH ELSEWHEREAfter having gone through my usual routine of screening for high implied volatility rank/high implied volatility underlyings for plays this coming week, one thing stands out: the implied volatility is in petro, with stocks like CHK, SDRL, WFT, PBR and the like rounding out my top 10 IV list.* With OPEC talks approaching here, and "friskiness" in petro-based underlyings likely to ensue, I'm loathe to pile into more petro, particularly if it involves a bullish assumption. The "more likely than not" outcome is no meaningful OPEC agreement as to cuts, which means oil down, which means further long opportunities below somewhere. If the contrarian outcome comes to pass (i.e., "meaningful cuts"), well, then I've just plain ass missed an opportunity to add long positions here and will have to make do with the bullish assumption positions I've got on here.
That being said, the "Top 10" list isn't entirely bereft of possibilities, depending on your risk tolerance and aversion to roller coasters.
For example, GPRO may be worth a bullish assumption play here on the notion that Christmas sales of its drones will be "brisk," something we probably won't know unless GPRO discloses its unit sales before its Q4 earnings announcement next year. The nearest to the 20-delta strike short put, 45 DTE, however, is the Dec 30th 8.5, which would bring in .36 ($36)/contract at the mid -- not exactly something that gets me excited. Even assuming I wanted to go nondirectional (short strangle/straddle, iron condor/fly), I can't squeeze enough out of those setups premium wise to make it worthwhile.
VRX is, well, VRX. The Dec 30th 14.5 short put (currently the 19 delta) goes for .66 ($66) at the mid price. That isn't bad, but I have to put up with sitting on pins and needles for 5 weeks or more with that setup. The alternative would be to go with a defined risk setup (not keen on being caught undefined in a potential whipsaw). Even there, however, an iron condor won't pay out at least 1.00 in credit without forcing the wings in beyond the 1 SD (I prefer more room with volatile biotech), and I'm not sure that I would want to go with the narrower breakevens of a fly, in spite of the fact that the credit I'd receive at the door would be more than sufficient. (A Dec 30th 13/18/18/23 iron fly would bring in 2.78, for example).
Well, what about AMD? That's in the list ... . Like its semicon counterpart, NVDA, AMD's been on a rip and the place to have gotten in was lower for a bullish assumption play (scratches "short put" off his list). And nondirectional doesn't pay enough: the Dec 30th 8.5 short straddle would bring in a 1.44 credit at the mid (I like to get at least 2.00 out of those); the 7/10.5 short strangle, .40 at the mid. Defined risk (flies, condors) will bring in even less.
CLF? Same deal (can't get much out of the 45 DTE 20 delta short put; short straddle/strangle, iron condor/fly bring in too little premium).
Ugh.
Sometimes, these holiday weeks are best for hand sitting ... . Looks like this is going to be "par for the course."
* -- The top 10 implied volatility stocks (in descending order): CHK, WFT, VRX, CLF, AMD, GPRO, PBR, RIG, VALE, CX, UNG.
Weekly ABCD pattern on VALE5 before signs of reversal- EMAs crossed suggesting bullish bias;
- Price getting out of volatility channel (upside)
- Rebound from the 50% retracement;
- Robust weekly candle;
- Possible ABCD pattern before any sign of reversal;
- Stoch is not losing pressure yet.
VALE5 testando resistência a $16.00Dando continuidade a trade fechado ontem, posicionamento em VALE5 esperando correção devido a forte alta do dia anterior.
Compra: $15,78
Stop: $15.43
Alvo: $16.39
INDICE PARA AMANHA , TOMORROW brasil > com o dolar despencando , o indice vai da um grande pulo ! boas compras
Usa > with the dollar falling, the index goes from a big leap! good long
MINI DOLAR , E DOLAR FULL BRAsil > -com a forte queda do dolar , no dia de hoje ele andou dentro de um tunel , amanha certamente ele entrara em uma forte queda . o REAL esta muito valorizado sobre o dolar . esperamos que o indice suba pelo menos 300 PONTOS
USA > -with the sharp decline of the dollar, the day he walked inside a tunnel, tomorrow he certainly entered into a sharp decline. REAL this highly valued on the dollar. we expect the index to rise at least 300 POINTS
Study: VALE5 x PETR4This study show the possibility ( ceteris paribus ) of BMFBOVESPA:PETR4 loosing another 8.5% (going to R$7.53 level) in the next 16 days based in historical correlation with VALE5 in a one year time-frame. I'll play this doing a Long (VALE5) & Short (PETR4) and buying PETR4 puts.
The Force Behind Brazil's Recent Bullishness (Analysis on VALE)If you've been paying attention to headlines about Brazil recently, the term "impeachment" seems to be all over the place. But what's really driving prices upwards in the country's stock market? Is it the daily swaying impeachment probability or something else?
Today's stock to be analysed is VALE, the Brazilian iron ore producer.
The chart's left side is late October 2014, when president Dilma Rousseff got re-elected. As can be seen, Vale's stock price has since then maintained a close correlation with the price of the main product it sells.
The analysis gets even more interesting when the stocks of other notable Iron Ore producers are plotted on the chart...
Anglo-Australian BHP Billiton and US-Based Freeport McMoRan.
So, what's really driving those prices more, Dilma or Iron Ore(rhymed!)? I'll stick with Iron Ore...
VALENew trade idea, BUY VALE here after a 61.8% retracement. Note the previous two pullbacks all reversed at 61.8% to move higher. Note the RSI is also at previous levels of oversold. Also, nice support level bouncing of the 20sma
VALE5 DFORMAÇÃO OCOi INCLINADO MAS QUE NÃO DESCONFIGURA O PADRÃO. ENTRADA MAIS AGRESSIVA COM OBJETIVO NA NECKLINE E OBSERVAÇÃO DE ROMPIMENTO.
Vale @ R$3 ???VALE5's Fibbonachi looks horrible!!!! Projection at R$ 3 pretty soon. Who share this ???
Vale:The Wait and See ApproachVale has been in a 4+ year long down trend. The good news is Vale put in a very strong bullish candle two weeks ago on huge volume, the bad news is Vale has followed that up with a reversal candle after failing to take out heavy resistance at the $9 level. Despite these reversal signs, it is possible for Vale to take a bounce to the upper trend channel in the $10-12 range which would set up an excellent shorting opportunity. Ideally I would like to see Vale close above $9 or at least make a very strong move towards $9 by the end of this week. On the other side of the trade, a close near or below $8 for the week would show a great deal of weakness and could be setting up for a drop to the $6 level.
So to recap: A close above 9 we can look higher, a close below 8 we look lower.
What should I analyze next? PM me or leave a comment below!
Giant double-bottom forming in VALE- Vale jumps today from level of previous low despite weak Chinese PMI data (on the heels of oil break out).
- Name heavily oversold on Chinese fears, plummeting iron ore prices, Brazil uncertainties, etc., selling might be overdone.
- Deeply undervalued even with depressed circumstances taken into account.
- High risk idea as many part of the equation of Vale is still very vulnerable, but promises reasonable profit potential.
- Double bottom is only confirmed when price breaks through neckline around 8.6-8.7. First stop might be there as well, possible break out then might bring it above 10.
