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Valuation

FB Long Thesis and Plan (Journal Entry)$FB The long-term bullish pennant for Facebook is still intact here. Upside potential is 17% from the $270ish level that I expect us to be around near the end of April around earnings. 17% is my thesis because of the range of the pennant being 17% approximately. If breakout were to occur, then total breakout to the upside should be similar in totality. Fundamentals for consideration: Of the mega-cap tech companies Facebook is considerably cheaper with a P/E of 25.6 compared to the rest of FANG at the current time. AAPL for example has a P/E of 33 currently. Also of note: FB has been the one to keep your eye one when attempting to identify where the overall group (QQQ) is headed. It has been leading us down first, as well as up first. Opinion only, not advice. Goodluck.
NASDAQ:METALong
by StockPickingEnthusiast
1
From US10Y Yield to Tesla and JPMIn this video, I explained the logic of recent market move caused by US 10Y yield. Actually, what caused the volatility doesn't matter at all, the key is what you're going to do. Some highlights are as below: 1. Why JPM rallied in the recent month? 2. Concern of the US 10Y rally continue to weigh on stocks.. 3. Similar pattern between US 10Y and JPM 4. Valuation drove the buyers to cheap stocks. Enjoy your trade. Be careful if you're using leverage to trade stocks, like Tesla.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by JICPT
6
Future Fuel is a green energy play with a super cheap valuationAs many you may have noticed or profited like I have on green energy play may it be solar companies or plays like Plug, Gevo, Fuel Cell, and Blink Charging. There are pure momentum and technical plays. However, if you look at those companies fundamentals, one begins to scratch your head and wonder if they have gone too far too fast. So, another way to play this sector is to buy Future Fuel. Not only does it have the momentum of the green sector but the fundamentals are super cheap. The Peg ratio is under one at .68 and a P/E ratio of 7. It is only a 700 million market cap and already very profitable. So, just imagine under a green future and green presidency like we have with Biden. Plus, the rise of other green plays like Fuel Cell or Gevo that have limited revenues are going parabolic. Just wonder what the possibility is for his company now people have started to pile on. I feel a 30 dollar share price is just around the corner and much more. Even then, it still would be cheap. So, buy hand over fist. If you beg to differ then please take a look at the fundamentals, the website, and the chart. I bet you will 100% change your mind and become super bullish
NYSE:FFLong
by JesusisthyLord
EHTH Intrinsic Value IdeaI had previously published on EHTH while it was in a symmetrical triangle formation. There was a brief false breakout at the end of January with the price going as high as 93. This was short lived however as it fell back below the initial resistance line and then rapidly dropped all the way down to $48 following a downgraded price target from RBC Capital. Despite the negative report and subsequent steep drop in price I still believe EHTH is a fundamentally strong company that will continue its steady/solid growth. I had previously set a $115 price target on EHTH and still believe this target can be justified however lets consider the possibility that I was simply just off in my valuation. I came to this $115 target using an already conservative 30% margin of error in my calculations. If we took those same calculations and used a very conservative 50% margin of error instead of 30%, our min price target would still be $82. I believe at this current price level there is some great value here.
NASDAQ:EHTHLong
by LivermoreGrahamDisciple
1
The Value of the SatoshiI feel the Satoshi (Sat) is often forgotten about and think it's vital in valuing Bitcoin. Why? First a small recap: Bitcoin is a currency. 1 BTC = Sat 100,000,000 Total Possible BTC = 21,000,000 (Due about 2140) Current Mined BTC = 18,750,000 (approx.) Current BTC Price = $40,604.36 Current Sat Price = $0.00004060436 Take a look at the Sat price: $0.00004 ... Not much use to anybody right? Now if the value of the Sat was at $0.04 then on a day to day basis, it would be useful. Think in terms of the dollar and the cent or UK pounds and pennies. The numbers after the '4' are still needed for making microscopic valuations similar to 1000th of a cent and so on. So why is this important? Nakamoto picked the number of Satoshis to 1 BTC to be 100,000,000. A figure any higher would be a waste, save for mathematics the last digits would never be used (as a currency) and any smaller number and there would be a shortfall, the missing 10th of a cent so to speak ("Where's my missing pen top!") :) Incidentally, if the price of Bitcoin was: $1,000,000 then 1 Sat would equate to $0.01 ! With the above analysis I think we've still got a long way to go! :)
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Paul_Erasmus
Investment advice and portfolio revealProbably I’ll post this text several times (under each ticker) that I mention below, as the meaning of the writing necessitate it. Introduction and the mindset: 8-10% of my wealth is in the US stock market, other almost 90% in real estate in Europe. As for the stocks, you got to have a diversified portfolio in my opinion. As my experience tells me you can be lucky sometimes and you also gonna be unlucky at any given time (and unexpected all the time). So one can not count on luck and/or feelings (I call it being on Hope-ium). This is the reason for the need of diversification, especially in this unprecedented (word of 2020, right?) environment. Lots of analysts say the market is overvalued, stock prices are overstretched (the SPY and tech at least). I think this is partially true and it does matter sometimes, it does not matter too much other times and/or instances as you’ll see soon below. OK, too much talk already, I will show you my portfolio and talk about my ideas with numbers, entry points, targets and even risks. My past fundamental ideas (as for reputation, not a bluffer): In 2019 I only had 2 ideas, both based on my fundamental analysis and they were for investment (so, not for short term trade ideas). Tesla and Bitcoin. For TSLA my entry plan and buying advice was @ $426 in December (pre-split price, so if you are new, divide it by 5). For BTC I stated that I recon we have to wait for the beginning of 2020 (according to my plan it was most likely for about February) and buy the expected dip - according to my readings - at $5500. Of course Covid came and things got crazy, but we didn’t expect that. Lots of losses and learning, but here I share some useful thoughts and ideas. I learned technical analysis, but these fundamental ideas born according to my own research, also wanna add, I didn’t know any known influencer back then. My recent/actual ideas and how to do it: I divide my stock portfolio for 5 sectors in a way that if even 3 or 4 of them fails, the other 1 or 2 will pay out so much, I wouldn’t mind and never lose. My sectors watched: 1.REIT (they will pay dividends) 2.Energy (they will recover) 3.Commodities (we need them whatever happens) 4.Biotech (necessity too) 5.Insurance (self explanatory). The SPY is driven by tech, so I left it out for now (with a small exception), as no need to risk now, because tech is a bit overstretched at the moment and even if it’s going way higher, my ideas will too. But if tech is not going higher, I will still make profits (hence the so called ‘K-shape recovery’). Not easy to do this in such overvalued levels but not everything is expensive and also note, that not every cheap stock is going to die off, so the main buying habit of mine is what George Gammon likes also: “I buy a dollar for fifty cents” if I may quote him here. This idea means that I buy according to the actual (and my own) valuation, plus the current stock price of the company and not according to the momentum or the horde, in other words the ‘best performers’ according to popular Youtubers, similar influencers (or the mainstream media for that matter), as history shows that the majority loses and the minority wins (at least during those crazy unprecedented times like now when soon everyone is in the stock market examples I analysed: 1929, 2000, 2008). Doesn’t that tell you that it would be wiser to be on the side of Michael Burry during the 2008 stock market rally instead of everyone else? Yeah, I know, it’s not easy and also, “this time will be different” :D But jokes aside, I believe at least in a way this time it actually could be different, the task is to understand fundamentals, think a lot and make smart decisions based on your own research. And the more you read and think, the closer you might get to some advantage and solution that will pay off highly likely in every possible scenario in the future. Why and how? A simple enough hint of mine for example is, if a stock is a ‘top performer’ that fact might actually mean it already did what we expected from it to do (otherwise why the term?), so you kind of could already be late, but you would never know. This is when FOMO comes in to play, beware! Sure, you can be lucky and participate in a bubble just like how it was with Yahoo in 1999-2000 but only afterwards (years later) could you for sure realize that it wasn’t a good idea to buy in around 1999 as you didn’t sell at the top (2nd of January, 2000) did you? Even though the “long term fundamentals” that they talked about back then, they all turned out to be 100% true, because tech went higher for sure, Apple is still a winning company, we are surrounded with computers, smartphones and it's all tech and internet and websites, we still use yahoo mail every day and listen to yahoo finance and so on. Tech is cool and king. Still, the dot com bubble was bad and painful for the majority. See, everyone was right except for the ones who bought in at the high prices because of FOMO. As you see now, those ‘top performers’ worked very well for those who bought in at the bottom or even half way to the top for swing trades (but that was just before you heard about them and not really any time later). So, the problem is that no one ever knows when is the top of a bubble or any kind of run up that is driven by sentiment if it’s not a slow and steady growth corresponding both the fundamentals and financials in other words the real growth of a company. So the solution is to better find one that is trusted and/or have future and not going bankrupt soon and is beaten down to the ground. That’s when you buy in. Warren teaches this too, but this is my own thinking and just a coincidence that the old man says it too. So, I reveal here all my stocks and investment picks that I either bought and/or had planned or advised to buy so far with my first entry prices during 2020 (not placed in order of any sort, but just random). The majority is investment for 3-5 years the exceptions are the swing trades (I mark them “swing trade” as they are not investments): TSLA again @ $358 (pre split); NYMT @ $1; IVR anywhere below $4; NIO anywhere below $5 (swing trade); HEXO @ $0.74 (pre split); ASTC @ $1.82 (swing trade); CDEV @ $1; LMND @ $47; TXMD @ $1.2; LXRX @ 1.93; GNW @ $3.26 (swing trade); WPG @ $1 (pre split); CRSP @ $60; gold below $1700; AAL @ $10 (swing trade); AMC @ $2.84 (swing trade); BTC @ $5500 for investment (and was swing trade too, from $7000 to $9000 because I had to pay property tax and did it from the profit).
AMEX:SPYLong
by janfoux
1
BLNK A Little Too ExpensiveThere's no doubt BLNK has had a meteoric rise over the past few months. Gains YTD are up over 2,500%. This is a company that I think has a bright future (no pun intended), but not at this valuation. Current price is trading at multiples of 344x of sales, 95x of book value and 104x cash. Most recent 10Q shows me that: GP is up approx 122% from 3Q of last year while Operating Expense is up 38%. OPEX increase was largely in part of increased compensation and G&A expenses. Operating Expense now represents 292% of Revenue compared to the 364% reported same quarter last year. So the company is growing. Here's the downside. Share price is now based on a valuation decades into the future. Chart shows that we've got RSI divergence along the highs so expect a pull back. I'm interested buying but at the right price.
NASDAQ:BLNK
by NetWorthFocused
17
Timing Mkt Entrance from RSI, Stochastic & Bollinger BandsI am eager to buy this stock because of its strong financials, its strong dividend, exemplary stewardship, and its current valuation, which is significanlty less than its fair value estimate (~$21/share current, compared to ~$29/share est. fair val.). However, due to its recent price increase I am not confident to buy this stock now because I have a gut feeling that this stock will decrease in the short-term, thus minimizing my prorfits. Furthermore, with the market being as high as it is, I would like to mitigate the effects of any impending stock market slumps. Many believe that another crash is imminent, and I dont want to be caught in a situation where I paid a price for a stock that it may not reach again for several months. This will tie up valuable income that could otherwise be used to make bargain purchases should a stock market slump occur. My analysis of this stock is as follows. I first indicated the prolonged overbought status of the RSI indicator, further confirmed by the stochastic indicator beginning in middle-to-late November. Then, I took note of the repeated top-Bollinger band penetration by the price signal, beginning in the first week of November, and continuing until mid-December. Finally, I looked at the volume oscillator to look for signs of divergence. I know that if strong upward moves are supported by a strong positive shift in volume, that the current trend is likely to continue. However, I know that if a strong upward move in price is backed instead by a strong negative shift in volume, that a price reversal may soon follow. Further to my point about volume movement, I observed that the volume oscillator's value at the close of December 11 was ~-4%, and more, that the rate of change of the volume oscillator was decreasing. This is especially apparent in the DEMA-9 of the volume oscillator signal. Since volume is an inherently noisy signal, especially in the 4h chart used in this analysis, I prefer to analyze a smoothed, DEMA-9 on the volume oscillator instead. This makes it more straight forward to assess volume movements and not be distracted by strong peaks and valleys seen in the un-smoothed signal. Thus, I anticipated that a further volume decline would ensure, despite the fact that the price appeared to be increasing rather strongly (but deceivingly so). I thus held off on buying this stock on November 24, where I began my analysis, despite my strong urge to do so given the attractive price increase. I am not certain when I will buy this stock, as the point I made about an imminent market crash is still valid. However should the price continue to decline significantly - the current decline sits at -2.3% in 3.5 hours since mkt open - it will look much more attractive to buy at that time.
NYSE:EPD
by nicholasbdurham
FLIR, somewhat undervalued technology stock on trend line watchFLIR Systems makes high-tech imaging systems. The stock has been selling off since its last earnings report, despite the fact that earnings and guidance both beat analyst estimates. Perhaps the selloff was because the company failed to issue forward guidance, or perhaps it was because free cash flow took an 18% hit last quarter and FLIR announced a 2.5% debt issuance in July. Regardless, FLIR now looks cheap, and sentiment has been improving lately. Valuation I expect that FLIR's dividend will yield 1.9% in the next 12 months. Its PEG is about 17, so not great, but not terrible. PSG ratio is 2.72. Again, not great, but not terrible. The real case for the stock being undervalued is that it's near the bottom of its three-year valuation range in P/E, P/S, and P/D terms. Despite the decrease in free cash flow, the company has a 77/100 financial health score from S&P Global. S&P Global also rates the stock 72/100 for its valuation, meaning the stock is solidly, but not extremely, undervalued. One reason I like FLIR is its patent portfolio. Patents granted are a leading indicator of earnings growth, and over the last three years, FLIR has been granted and average of 16 patents per billion dollars of current market cap. That very respectable number puts its patents-to-market cap ratio in the same league as Intel, which ranked 4th in the nation for total patents granted in 2019. In short, FLIR is a leading innovator for its market cap size. Sentiment and Technicals Analysts have been steadily upgrading FLIR, and it currently has an 8/10 Equity Starmine Summary Score. Options traders are quite bullish on the stock, with a put/call ratio of just 0.29. The technicals on FLIR are still negative, but improved slightly today to "sell" from yesterday's "strong sell" reading on both the daily and weekly charts. I'll be watching for a bullish cross of the trend line FLIR has formed since February as my buying signal.
FLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
1
Please help one this / why CIIG is valued 750M ?Arrival confirms that it entered into a definitive business combination agreement with CIIG Merger Corp. (NASDAQ:CIIC) in a SPAC deal. and the newly combined company will be listed on the NASDAQ under the new ticker symbol ARVL. The transaction values the combined company at an enterprise value of $5.4B and is expected to provide gross cash proceeds of around $660M to the company. As part of the transaction, CIIG raised a $400M fully committed common stock PIPE that was anchored by Fidelity, Wellington Management, BNP Paribas Asset Management Energy Transition Fund and funds/accounts managed by BlackRock Can you please tell me why CIIG is currently trading at 750m USD while the reverse merger with Arrival will value it at 5 bn USD ? I guess CIIG will absorbe Arrival and change its name to ARVL , correct Do you have any idea? as if the combined value will be 5 bn the share will do 5 fold at least Someone knows the terms of this reverse merge and the ratio of exchange of shares ? Much appreciated
CLong
by PhilippeDelpCFA
7
ABBV buy the dip ahead of pharma seasonAbbvie's volume has slackened somewhat after its recent triangle breakout, and it has broken its steep upward trendline. We may see a small correction late this month as Abbvie pulls back toward triangle top. However, if healthcare and pharmaceutical sector earnings continue to deliver this month (as they have so far), then Abbvie should get some buying volume along with the rest of the sector. And then in August, a period of seasonal pharmaceutical strength begins. In The Stock Traders' Almanac, Jeffrey Hirsch makes an extensive study of seasonal stock market performance by sectors. His third-best-performing seasonal trade by average 10-year return (16.8%) is to go long biotech from early August to early March. I believe that's because this is the busy season for FDA drug application reviews. The pharma sector does have an unusual level of political risk this year. Democrats have traditionally been hard on the pharma sector, and they look poised this year for a sweep. If the polls remain strongly blue, then we might see pharma underperform this year. That said, I think a lot of the political risk is already priced in. Whereas most of the stocks I look at are at the very top of their 3-year valuation range in terms of forward earnings and sales, pharmaceutical companies like Abbvie and Merck are trading in the bottom quartile of their 3-year valuation range. With forward PEG ratio around 2, forward PSG ratio around 0.5, and a whopping 5% dividend, Abbvie looks really attractively valued. I've been doing a lot of deal-hunting lately, and this is one of the only stocks I've seen with both a strong growth story and a valuation I really like. The analysts and options traders like it too; Abbvie has a 9.9/10 Equity Starmine Summary Score, and near-dated options positions are heavily skewed toward calls.
NYSE:ABBVLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
1
SHOPIFY- land gracefully and REFUEL for more HIGH-FLYING ACTWho doesn't like the high-flying act? Sometimes, the proper rest is needed in order to soar even higher. Shopify needs a deep pullback in order to draw in more trigger-scary investors who wait on the sideline. Such parabolic movement is not sustainable with RSI hovers above 70 since early 2017 on the monthly timeframe. Only one red bar in the last 14 monthly bars... It needs to cool down a bit. For positional and long-term traders, check my pro & con list below. Give me a like and follow me if you find my analysis useful. Much appreciated :D Pro- Strong CAGR Dominate the e-commerce platform market by capturing the 31% market share Growing gross merchandise volume- The value of all products sold by merchants on Shopify’s platform Growing gross payment value through Shopify payment, creating an more integrated platform Strengthened the Shopify fulfillment network with the acquisition of fulfillment automation company Con- Square partners up with UPS Overvalued according to financial metrics (EV/EBITDA, P/S, P/E) High burn rate that prioritizes growth over profitability (Weak EPS) Negative free cash flow despite not heavily invest in R&D
NYSE:SHOP
by Libratus
2
JETS finally taking offAirline stocks have had a lot of bullish options interest for the last month or so, thanks to their attractive valuations (less than 10 P/E!) and strong earnings growth. However, the stocks have been unable to break out due to high fuel prices. With Iran conflict cooling and oil prices falling, the JETS ETF is finally gaining some momentum this week. Individual airline stocks such as JBLU and SAVE got upgrades yesterday, which should be good for the ETF's near-term performance.
AMEX:JETSLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
1
Alexion Pharmaceuticals is outrageously undervaluedAfter noticing some call buying activity in Alexion Pharmaceuticals today, I gave the stock a look. Analysts like Alexion. It has an 8.8/10 analyst summary score and an average price target of about $146.50 (versus the current price of about $113). S&P Global Intelligence rates it 85/100 for quality and 87/100 for financial health. Its growth stability earns a score of 62/100, which is great for a pharmaceutical company. Alexion has a nice, diverse portfolio of products that gives it some resiliency against changes in the demand for any one particular drug. But the most attractive thing about Alexion stock is its valuation. The forward P/E of about 10 is very low for a stock with such extraordinary earnings growth. Analyst forecasts for Alexion's earnings have risen something like 25% over the last two years, but the share price has fallen over the same period. Moreover, Alexion has beaten estimates for every single one of the last 8 quarters. S&P Global Intelligence rates Alexion's valuation 97/100 (extremely undervalued)! Today's headline from DJ Realtime News is, "Elliott Looks Forward to Continuing Dialogue With Alexion in Effort to Close Gap Between Current Share Price and Fundamental Value." Go to YouTube and check out my "Wall Street Petting Zoo" video titled "How to Determine the Fair Value of a Stock." There I describe how to use the Zacks "Price and Consensus" chart to determine the fair value of a stock. By this standard, Alexion is conservatively worth $175 per share.
ALong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
VIPS run should continue after pullback from overboughtChinese retailer VIPS has been on a massive run lately, and is now pulling back from overbought on the weekly. The stock has formed two upward trend lines, one steeper than the other. We may break the steepest trend line and bounce from the secondary one. VIPS started 2019 at a low valuation, and over the course of the year has seen a roughly 100% increase in its earnings forecast. The share price has risen accordingly, but the stock remains significantly undervalued according to S&P Global Intelligence, with a valuation rating of 86/100. VIPS has posted huge earnings beats on its last five earnings reports. The company next reports earnings on February 18, 2020. Judging from the current earnings forecast, I judge that the share price is likely to hit $30 per share by 2021. The stock has a 9.5/10 analyst summary score and fairly bullish options volume even after the huge run it's been on.
NYSE:VIPSLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
Energy the only sector not looking overvalued right nowDespite a big end-of-year rally in both oil and energy stocks, the energy sector remains attractively valued at the end of 2019. In fact, energy is the *only* sector that's attractively valued right now. XLE has a reasonable P/E of 15, a price-to-book ratio of 1.5, and a dividend yield at 3.7%. That's a solid return on capital, handily beating the 2.32% yield on treasuries and the 2.2% yield on the top dividend fund, DGRO. DGRO's P/E is over 18 and its price-to-book is 1.9, meaning that in that fund you pay quite a bit more for a lower yield. The dividend yield on XLE has been improving for a couple years now, and I think the 4% dividend level is psychologically significant enough that we'll find a lot of support at that level. Some individual energy stocks, like ET and OXY, even offer dividends near 10% right now. In an overall extremely overbought market with some ongoing recession risk, this is a relatively safe long-term play that offers good value and solid returns. Did I mention that seasonal cycles favor oil right now? December through July are the traditional bull months for oil, according to the Stock Traders' Almanac. Rising geopolitical tensions with Iran and a cooling trade war with China also favor oil strength for the near future.
AMEX:XLELong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
5
Hyped cannabis stock ACB finally worth a buyAfter a long downward slide, Aurora Cannabis has finally hit a support critical level around $2.50. With the stock finally looking a little undervalued and a large recent earnings beat under its belt, ACB should rally higher. Call buyers are targeting $5.00 per share within two months, with over 40,000 call options located at that price. Cannabis is a hype sector, so when investor interest picks back up, it could quickly turn red hot. Several times in the last few years, ACB has hit over $10 per share.
ALong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
10