The Trump PatternWhen Donald Trump took office in 2017, the U.S. stock market experienced dramatic fluctuations—marked by steep declines followed by eventual rebounds.
This pattern, which we'll call the "Trump Pattern," repeated itself during his presidency and is now emerging again as a point of interest for investors.
While the specific causes of these market shifts varied, key factors—particularly tariffs, inflation concerns, and Federal Reserve (FED) actions—played critical roles in the market's rise and fall during Trump’s presidency.
The Trump Pattern: The Market Fall and Recovery
🏁 1. The Start of the Trump Presidency (2017)
When Donald Trump was elected in 2016, the market responded with a combination of excitement and uncertainty. Initially, the market surged due to tax cut expectations, deregulation, and optimism about a business-friendly administration. But as Trump's presidency fully began in January 2017, concerns over trade wars and tariff policies began to dominate investor sentiment.
The market initially dipped after Trump began pursuing a protectionist trade agenda, especially with China.
As concerns about tariffs escalated, stock markets reacted negatively to potential trade wars.
💶 2. The Tariff Crisis of 2018
The first major example of the "Trump Pattern" emerged in 2018 when Trump began implementing tariffs, particularly on Chinese imports, and announced new tariffs on steel and aluminum. This caused major market disruptions.
The S&P 500 fell dramatically during this period, dropping by as much as 8.6% from its February peak in 2019.
Companies that relied heavily on international trade, like Apple, General Motors, and Ford, experienced significant stock price declines. In fact, Apple’s stock fell 9.5% on days when new tariffs were announced, as their costs for manufacturing overseas rose.
The uncertainty surrounding the global economy, combined with rising tariffs, created fears of a trade war, leading to sharp market declines.
📈 3. Market Recovery: FED Rate Cuts and Tax Cuts
Despite the tariff-induced volatility, the market didn’t stay down for long. After significant market falls, the Federal Reserve (FED) began implementing interest rate cuts to combat slowing economic growth. These actions helped stabilize the market and even fueled a rebound.
FED rate cuts made borrowing cheaper for consumers and businesses, stimulating economic activity and boosting investor confidence.
Additionally, tax cuts, a cornerstone of Trump’s economic policy, provided further support, particularly for corporations.
As a result, after the initial market drop in 2018 and early 2019, the market rebounded, continuing to climb as investors reacted positively to these fiscal and monetary policies.
🎯 The 2024 and 2025 "Trump Pattern" Emerges Again
Fast forward to 2024 and 2025, and we’re seeing echoes of the "Trump Pattern" once again. New tariffs, introduced in 2025, have reignited concerns about a trade war. These tariffs, particularly on Chinese imports, have once again caused market volatility.
The stock market has fallen in recent months due to concerns about these tariffs and the impact they might have on global trade. For example, when new tariffs were introduced in early 2025, the market saw a sharp sell-off, with the S&P 500 falling by over 1.8% in a single day.
Companies that rely on international trade, like Tesla and Ford, have seen their stock prices drop in response to concerns about increased production costs.
The broader market decline, much like in 2018, was driven by fears that tariffs could slow down the global economy and hurt corporate profits.
However, there is optimism that the same pattern will unfold, where the market eventually recovers after these initial drops.
⚠️ 4. FED Rate Cuts Again?
As inflation concerns persist, the Federal Reserve is likely to step in once again. Like previous cycles, we expect the FED to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy. This would be aimed at reducing borrowing costs, encouraging investment, and helping businesses weather the impact of higher tariffs and global uncertainty.
The FED’s actions are typically a key driver of market recovery in the "Trump Pattern." Investors have come to expect that a market downturn triggered by political or economic disruptions can be offset by the FED’s supportive monetary policies.
⚖️ Navigating the Trump Pattern: What Should Investors Do?
The "Trump Pattern" highlights that during periods of heightened uncertainty, especially due to trade policies like tariffs, the market will often experience short-term declines followed by long-term recovery. Here are a few strategies investors might want to consider:
Stay Diversified : During periods of volatility, having a diversified portfolio can help cushion against the risks posed by market swings.
Invest in Domestic Companies : Companies that rely less on international supply chains might fare better during periods of trade policy changes and tariff uncertainty.
Focus on Growth : Once the initial market decline subsides, look for sectors that stand to benefit from a recovering economy, such as tech or consumer discretionary stocks.
Look for Inflation Hedges : Given the potential for inflation, consider investments that tend to perform well during these times, such as real estate or commodities like gold.
📝 Conclusion: The Trump Pattern in Action
The "Trump Pattern" demonstrates how the market tends to react in cycles during the early months of each presidency. Typically, the market falls at the start due to the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s trade policies, particularly tariffs. However, after these initial drops, the market often rebounds thanks to FED rate cuts and other policies aimed at stimulating the economy.
Looking ahead to 2025, we're already seeing signs of this pattern in action as tariffs are back on the table and market volatility has followed. However, history suggests that patience might pay off. Once the FED steps in and cuts rates, a market rebound is likely, following the same trend we saw in 2017-2019.
