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Is MSFT Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?MSFT is one of the few tech stocks which trades close to all-time highs, seemingly oblivious to the brutal valuation reset that swept through the sector In the most recent quarter, MSFT delivered strong results when factoring in the tough macro environment. MSFT grew revenues by 7% (10% constant currency) and earnings per share by 10% (14% constant currency) - two achievements not necessarily typically seen under difficult economic circumstances. MSFT generated $8.64 billion of that operating income from its productivity and business processes segment, which houses its Office 365 product suite among others. As to be expected, LinkedIn revenue growth came in light at just 8%, a reflection of lower hiring demand. MSFT generated another $9.4 billion in operating income from its intelligent cloud segment. Azure grew at a 27% clip, far surpassing the 16% growth seen at competitor Amazon Web Services Investors have been cautious on the ever-valuable cloud business ever since the cloud titans all revealed cloud optimization efforts undertaken by its customers. On the conference call, management implied that they may see easing headwinds as they pass the anniversary of those optimization efforts, stating that “at some point, workloads just can't be optimized much further.” It is possible that MSFT’s partnership with ChatGPT’s creator OpenAI has something to do with that, as management noted that while they do not consolidate any operating losses due to them holding a minority equity interest, they do indeed recognize revenues generated from OpenAI using their cloud services. The other cloud titans did not offer the same bullish commentary surrounding the end of cloud optimization. MSFT continued to see headwinds from its more personal computing segment, which saw revenues decline by 9% though still managed to generate $4.24 billion in operating income. At some point the comps should become easier here, but that may still be a couple of quarters away. MSFT ended the quarter with $104.5 billion in cash versus $48.2 billion in debt. I note that the company also has another $9.4 billion in equity investments (the announced $10 billion investment in OpenAI is set to take place in parts throughout the year). The company continues to pay a growing dividend and conducted $5.5 billion in share repurchases in the quarter. It is not too often that one can get long term innovation and have the majority of free cash flow returned to shareholders as well. Looking ahead, management has noted that overall growth may struggle due to the prior year’s quarter being a tough comp, with that being their “largest commercial bookings quarter ever with a material volume of large multiyear commitments.” Management did, however, guide for up to 27% in Azure growth, which seems to imply that the bottom for that segment may be very near if not already passed. Investors may be worried about how ongoing tech layoffs may impact Office 365 growth, but management appeared unfazed by this risk, citing that they continue to see strong demand for their product suites. MSFT continues to show why it is a favorite tech stock in growth allocations, as it has shown resilient growth in the face of tough macro. The strong fundamentals have helped the stock sustain a premium valuation multiple, as the stock recently traded hands at just under 35x earnings. Valuation remains the most obvious risk with that stock trading something between 50% and 100% higher than GOOGL depending on how many adjustments applied to the latter. With the stock trading so richly on present earnings, the stock could go nowhere for 7-10 years and still be trading at around 15x earnings at that time. Unless MSFT manages to sustain double-digit earnings longer than consensus, the stock will likely need to sustain a rich multiple in order to beat the market index. I note that this risk does not appear as large at the aforementioned mega-cap peers due to not just lower valuations but also due to MSFT appearing to already be operationally efficient with operating margins in excess of 40%. Another risk is that of potential disruption to its enterprise tech business. Wall Street appears to view the stock as being the strongest operator in any of its competing markets, but I do not share such views. In particular, I view competition from the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD),and GOOGL’s productivity suite as being underestimated risks. It is possible that MSFT is about to face long- term disruption just as its growth story is decelerating - which would have a catastrophic impact on multiples. Due to the near term upside from OpenAI, MSFT hit ATH and now its in pullback mode, I took huge profit and waiting for more confirmation
NASDAQ:MSFT
by moonypto
2
Ubisoft Entertainment SA / UBIUbisoft Entertainment aka ubi "bug" is a french video game publisher headquartered in Saint-Mandé with development studios across the world. Its video game franchises include Assassin's Creed, Far Cry, For Honor, Just Dance, Prince of Persia, Rabbids, Rayman, Tom Clancy's, and Watch Dogs. Ubisoft was one early investors in web3 technologies and projects too last year was a terrible year for ubi because not only they didn't succeed with their franchise like farcry 6 but also they entered the bear market while they were working on their bigger projects like AC. “We are clearly disappointed by our recent performance,” said Ubisoft Chief Executive Yves Guillemot. “We are facing contrasted market dynamics as the industry continues to shift towards mega-brands and everlasting live games, in the context of worsening economic conditions affecting consumer spending.” 2023 is a big year for ubi and they are going to publish some of their best games like Assassin's Creed Mirage, Tom Clancy’s The Division Heartland and skull and bones ubi stock now in Accumulation phase and its next targets are 21, 23 and 25
LSIN:0NVLLong
by moonypto
1
Ranger Energy on the pullback. This is why I'm doubling down. Ranger Energy Services, Inc. NYSE:RNGR is on an 11% pullback to the $12 support following spectacular Q2 results , with a surprise in their EPS of 47%. This is one of my highest conviction plays in 2024 for the reasons that I explain below. In June, this stock surfaced to my attention due to significant insider buying activity. Essentially, the CEO, Bodden Stuart, and the CFO, Cougle Melissa, bought a total of $150,000 in shares in Ranger Energy. This is a significant value to me, given that the share price declined by 37% since October last year. My investment style favors contrarian insiders buying activity, after a significant selloff in the share price of their company. However, I consider many other things that I cover below. In Q1 2024, they had very bad results . Their EPS was down by 140% compared to what the analysts estimated. Most shareholders, especially with micro-cap companies, barely go into the details behind such a decline. They simply have a look at the EPS and Revenue results, and move on. In my case, I analyze every single detail from their quarterly reports, and earnings call transcripts. I reached the conclusion that the selloff since October was unjustified. My first argument is the unprecedentedly bad winter, which directly affected their Q1 results. As a brief side note to readers new to this company, Ranger Energy provides well completion and production services to E&P companies operating on the largest basins in the US. The very first thing that E&P companies do during bad weather is pause the work of their subcontractors, which in the case of Ranger Energy means zero revenue. An additional argument that I have for the selloff was a safety related event that resulted in 75 rig-days with zero revenue. Just let that sink in; 75 days with absolute 0 income, but having to cover the business' operating expenses, like salaries and equipment leases. During the earnings call, management discussed the decision to pivot towards services that provide a higher margin. I really favor this decision, given that I prefer companies who focus on margins, rather than volumes. Why, you might ask? Well, in the event of a recession, guess which one is going to survive? Exactly, none of them, but I will be making money anyways by shorting the one that focuses on higher volume, low margin services. Coming back to Ranger Energy, I highly value their decision to focus on pump-down services, rather than production, given the high number of new competitors bidding for production contracts at rates that are simply not profitable. In regards to their price action, I am very confident in the $8.5 and $9.2 support levels, given the high number of times that the share price bounced there. Additionally, in their Q2 earnings release, they reported an EPS that was 47% above analysts' estimate. The share price easily broke the $12 resistance level. Now, with the recent pullback following unfavorable results from the US jobs report, the share price is back on the $12 price mark. I highly believe the share price will touch the $15 resistance before the end of the year, given the strategic initiative to focus on high-margin services, and the lack of one-off events, like safety incidents or harsh winter conditions. I am planning to buy more shares and call options expiring on December this year. As a side note, the rocket symbol on the price chart represents my entry point this year.
NYSE:RNGRLong
by Deep_F_Value
1
Is The US Stock Market Overvalued? Ask Buffet Indicator.The Buffett Indicator, named after renowned investor Warren Buffett, is a popular metric used to assess the valuation of the US stock market by comparing it to the nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This ratio provides a clear picture of how the market's value stacks up against the economy's overall output. Understanding the Buffett Indicator - Buffett Indicator measures the ratio of total US stock market value to GDP. - Current value: 197% as of May 31, 2024. - Historical trend suggests a typical value closer to 100%. - 1.9 standard deviations above the trend line indicates significant overvaluation. Market Growth vs. Economic Growth - High Buffett Indicator value suggests a potential market bubble. - Disparity between market growth and economic output. - Historically, high ratios have led to market corrections. - Overvalued markets increase the risk of significant retracements. Impact of Interest Rates - Low interest rates drive investors towards equities, inflating stock prices. - Bonds offer lower returns, pushing capital into the stock market. - Rising interest rates could shift money back to bonds, pressuring stock prices. - The indicator's high value underscores the risk of a correction if interest rates increase. International Sales and Overvaluation - The indicator does not account for international sales of US companies. - Global revenues can distort the picture of domestic economic health. - High Buffett Indicator may reflect these global sales, adding to overvaluation. - Investors should consider conservative strategies until valuations return to historical norms.
SP:SPXEducation
by MarkitMaven
2
Are 3D Printing Stocks About To Make an Epic Comeback?Ladies and gentlemen, traders of all ages, today I am sharing an idea about 3D printing stocks trading at remarkably low levels considering the following points: 1. They've been through several "hype cycles" already. 2. They've been improving the tech for 10+ years now. 3. But most importantly, generative AI is about to unlock ridiculously powerful capabilities that speed up design and printing times for all services. The key factor is that AI might just be the match that takes 3D printing to true mass adoption. This is what everyone who has ever followed 3D printing has been waiting for. It's the only way these companies can truly grow to their next stage. Here are some cool facts to consider that are all data points created BEFORE the usage of AI to spark new ideas, support design, create mockups, and even create underlying code for specific printable items – thus imagine how these facts change once updated to the emergence of AI: Rapid Adoption Across Industries: The global 3D printing market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 21% from 2021 to 2028, driven by increasing demand from industries such as healthcare, aerospace, and automotive. Automotive Advancements: Companies like Ford and BMW started using 3D printing for prototyping and manufacturing complex parts, significantly reducing production time and costs. Aerospace Applications: Aerospace companies started leveraging 3D printing to create lightweight, durable components for aircraft and spacecraft, enabling them to test concepts faster and on site. The two companies I have on this idea and chart are NASDAQ:SSYS Stratasys (SSYS) and NYSE:PRLB – while I like Desktop Metal, the simple fact is that SSYS and PRLB seem to have better balance sheets and income statements. Their financial health is far more robust with less debt, also. In the coming weeks, I am going to publish more research about why I sense a return to this industry. Stay tuned! Please always remember I publish for my own education and entertainment. None of this is advice! Do your own research. Check out all of the ideas on my TradingView profile for me and be sure to press that boost button if you liked this idea.
NASDAQ:SSYS
by scheplick
1
BITCOIN'S Next Target $69,623 BREAKING NEW: TRADERS, who's ready for the second move? It's been confirmed with price action BITCOIN will continue as I've searched for trend continuation. Smart money contraction with value line: this means the trend gets pushed down by smart money then the trend must rise. I've laid a Bear Trap in case there's one. The red Smart Money trendline is a smart money plot that I've retraced. It's used for guidance which shows more or less the direction of the WHALES Used Money Flow Index for guidance Here are the next-level prices. I've considered all candlesticks that show the facts and wicks that explain the story of Bitcoin's next movements. I've looked up plenty of price action and candlestick patterns Next BULL RUN DATE to be released soon Hint: It's before July ends. Since $56k, I warned you there was a buy signal while I was on the other side of the BULL-GATE standing against the HERD, who were declaring BITCOIN CRASHES. EXPECTED ATH TARGET $85k, I've said this in the past for many weeks.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by The_ForexX_Mindset
186
Render Token / RNDRThe price of RNDR is $1.83 today with a 24hour trading volume of 180 million dollars. This represents a 4% price increase in the last 24 hours and a 333% price increase in the past 30 days! Render token is a distributed GPU rendering network built on top of the Ethereum blockchain, aiming to connect artists and studios in need of GPU compute power with mining partners willing to rent their GPU capabilities out. Backed by parent company OTOY, the RNDR team is based out of Los Angeles, with team members throughout the world. The RNDR advisory board boasts industry leaders such as Ari Emanuel (Co-Founder and Co-CEO, WME), JJ Abrams (Chairman and CEO, Bad Robot Productions) and Brendan Eich (Founder and CEO, Brave Software and BAT) bulls broke 0.8, 1.2 and 1.6 resistance and ready to claim 2$. I got into rndr wen it has 220 million market-cap and here we are at half a billion dollar mc. as you see market is in correction phase which is normal and healthy so don't panic if you see couple of red candles after 300% pump
RLong
by moonypto
37
Lululemon's Drop Has Me Completely SurprisedI’m still in awe at the drop happening across fashion stocks like NASDAQ:LULU , NYSE:NKE , and even Under Armour. The other week, I wrote about Nike and now I realize I must comment on the drop of Lululemon, which is down 50% this year and now has its lowest PE ratio in over decade all while doing about $1 billion in Free Cash Flow last holiday season. So what’s going on? First, let’s look at their declines since the start of the year: Nike is down 33% year-to-date, Lululemon has plunged 51%, and Under Armour has dropped 21%. I did some research into why this might be happening, as earnings and margins are being challenged, and found the following three reasons: 1. The athletic fashion market has become fiercely competitive, maybe more than ever, with new brands entering the fray and established brands expanding their offerings. Companies like Athleta, Fabletics, and various direct-to-consumer startups are aggressively targeting the same market segments that giants like Nike and Lululemon dominate. 2. New shopping mechanics on Instagram and Amazon has dramatically altered the retail landscape. Instagram's shopping features and Amazon's expansive marketplace have changed how consumers discover and purchase athletic apparel. Brands now need to invest heavily in digital marketing and influencer partnerships to stay relevant. This shift has favored agile, digitally native brands that can quickly adapt to new trends and customer behaviors. This is a big deal. 3. Wall Street's relentless focus on short-term performance has placed additional strain on these companies. Investors demand constant growth, often pushing companies to prioritize immediate gains over long-term stability. This pressure can lead to cost-cutting measures that impact product quality and innovation. For instance, there are concerns that Nike may have compromised on quality control to meet earnings expectations, resulting in dissatisfied customers and negative reviews. While I don’t have a position on in any of these stocks, I am absolutely watching Nike and Lululemon. At these levels, and if they continue to drop, I believe a trade will open up. I’ll share more details soon about this! Lululemon is on my watchlist!
NASDAQ:LULU
by scheplick
24
Small Caps Dead?AVUV from Avantis has outperformed the S&P since its opening in 2020. It recently dipped below the S&P for a brief moment before skyrocketing back above it. AVUV is not strictly a small cap fund because screens for value, profitability and momentum exposure. The recent surge in small caps has shown that diversified exposure to equities factors not present in the S&P 500 can be beneficial for those investing with long time horizons. Choosing funds with higher expected returns like AVUV might be difficult when the Mag 7 is driving the market, but you'll be very happy with your portfolio at times like this.
AMEX:AVUVLong
by Mere_Cat
1
DJT falls on stratospheric valuations SHORTDJT, the Trump media company, had a massive run up after the DWAC merger only to fade and fall with the SEC filing showing minimalistic revenue and negative earnings. It moved up in meme fashion but is now falling as fundamentals come to light. In five months the namesake will be able to sell if there is any remaining value. In the meanwhile, the board will likely refuse an early sell permission because that would like cause a " long squeeze". DJT is a good short right now no matter the locate and carry fees which are very high. I was long DWAC and am now short DJT using the profits from the merger volatility. Selling volumes are rising showing the longs are beginning to get squeezed. The relative trend indicator shows a strong move down.
NASDAQ:DJTShort
by AwesomeAvani
7
GME Head and shoulders Here we see a BULL ready to blast. History shows left shoulder and head and since a BULL Signal was created through whale movements on 7/11, then two things will happen. 1. BULL blast to void out right shoulder for a higher value or 2: play the right shoulder pattern Either way it’s profitable I’ve added my BLUE WAVE PLOT which is making the down move to active the BULL and my green plot is my smart moneys value price trend which shows GME to reach that high in value.
Long
by The_ForexX_Mindset
35
TSLA does the upcoming RoboTaxi announce change things LONGTSLA has the accouncement upcoming. Price will pump for sure. Will it then dump or change the trend altogether? The forecasts are there. The tea leaves and crystal balls will tell the rest of the story. In the meanwhile, I will take long trades to play this in the immediate term. One million taxis making $250 / per day every day per each is serious potential future growth perhaps at the expense of UBER and LYFT which may get a bearish bias in the short term on this upcoming announcement. Playing the news sometimes works.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by AwesomeAvani
5
ETH’s influence on ERC20 products like YFIInfluence on ERC20 Products ETH’s influence on ERC20 products like YFI can be seen in several ways: Liquidity: ETH’s large market capitalization and liquidity provide a foundation for ERC20 tokens like YFI to tap into, enabling efficient and reliable transactions. Smart Contract Interoperability: ETH’s presence ensures that smart contracts, including those for ERC20 tokens like YFI, can interact seamlessly with each other and with the broader Ethereum ecosystem. Developer Adoption: ETH’s widespread adoption and established developer ecosystem encourage the creation and development of new ERC20 tokens, including DeFi protocols like YFI, which in turn benefits from ETH’s infrastructure. In summary, ETH’s influence on ERC20 products like YFI is indirect yet significant, providing a stable and liquid foundation for the Ethereum ecosystem and enabling the development and growth of #DeFi protocols like #Yearn.finance.
Long
by Victor_Ledney
Refex Industries Trading IdeaAs you can see clearly the stock today breakout with beautiful C&H pattern with good trade volume. stock trade above all the ema also crossing RSI 60 level let talk touch fundamental aspects stock PE is fall from 41 to 23 now it showed good value buy also quarterly sales and profits are increasing. i see a good potential in this. you read blogs and learn more Lets talk about Target which we can expects 1st target after breakout and retrace will be 225 (25%) 2nd target after breakout and retrace will be 253 (40%) Educational Content This stock analysis is designed for educational purposes and should not be taken as professional financial advice. Please carry out your own research or consult with a financial advisor before investing.
NSE:REFEXLong
by SHEHBAZ_KHAN
2