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Value

VANRY aka TVK aka new ai layer one aka next 100xVANRY aka TVK is a name you might have heard of. Vanry has a limited 2.4 billion supply, largest whale holds 400 million leaving 2 billion to the masses and the mc is currently holding steady at $300m poised for a gigantic leap. The last play like this was performed by Chainlink. When Chainlink went on it's run from the .20's range it topped at out at nearly $20. It then found support around $7, went on a run up to $53 and is currently sitting at $20. Check out what they're doing over at Vanry. It's one of the most visually impressive web3 projects that I've seen yet. You can currently find this on Coinbase under TVK. vanarchain.com *disclaimer: it could also go to zero. This is for entertainment purposes only. Enjoy the ride.
Long
by between_the_wicks
Great opportunity to buy some more BTC - My take on the FED It is possible that BTC will go to 20 000 and maybe even below that, but chasing the bottom is not the smartest idea. This is the opportunity that we've been waiting for. Everyone wanted to buy BTC if only it was a little cheaper. Well, now it is, but everyone is scared :) The wise words of Peter Lynch are that NOBODY can predict the bottom, and nobody can predict anything within a year or two. What we can see is that Bitcoin demonstrated more than 2x higher demand than this. Even though the Crypto market wasn't positively affected by inflation, you have to remember that in macroeconomics some trends require even years to settle even though the signs were obvious. Everyone with some common sense could tell that inflation was going to be massive if we just looked at the money supply increase of 2020 and 2021, let alone 2022. But what everyone forgot is that, according to Milton Friedman, real-world effects of inflation go in phases. In the first 6 months, there is some "positive" effect on the economy, due to the massive inflow of currency in the system. Also, keep in mind that inflation is felt IMMEDIATELY in the stocks and bonds. The very second money printing starts. But 18 months after that, the effects of inflation are first felt. Keep in mind that this statistic puts just the start of 2020 inflation at the beggining of 2022. So the inflation will keep at this pace for at least the next 2 years with yearly inflation of 15-30%. The fact that federal reserve is increasing interest rate will NOT get the inflation under control. Restraining inflation that way never worked long term. It can only create short term FUD and selling. What happens with the money that people withdraw from their overinflated accounts after 2 years of 20+% gains on S&P500? They start to spend it, because inflation is not under control. What happens then? Inflation becomes even worse. It takes some money fot the money to come back, usually a couple months to a year. The money in the system will just switch places from fictional (stocks, index and funds) into real life (food, housing, services). 90% of the money that FED has been "printing" for the past 2 years didn't even enter the real life. It was fictional. It was conserved in the markets. Real life effects therefore weren't noticable until recently, when people started cashing in. Interest rates on bonds will NOT be enough for any average investor. Bonds are only used as a small percentage of portfolios for hedging some risks in the markets. This text is also the reason why the FED should NEVER interfere with monetary policy, and shouldn't exist at all. All of these money printing and recession cycles are exploiting the human need to gamble. They will crash the system at random intervals. They will overinflate it when nobody expects it. You will enter the trades even after it's been going up for too long. You probably got burned 5 times before that by trying to short it because it was rational. You can be 100% correct and still lose money. And you will lose money both ways.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by josip
MARA fell on a huge earnings beat LONGMARA fell a few days ago while Bitcoin is staging another leg higher along with other coins. On the 30-minute chart, MARA is in undervalued territory below the mean-anchored VWAP and near to the bottom of the high volume area on the volume profile but above the POC line. This seems to be an obvious long trade for me to take. I will set a stop loss of $1.00 below market price and a target of $31 halfway between the mean VWAP and the first upper VWAP the line above it. A call option trade striking $30.00 expiring in three months will be considered. MARA fell from excellent earnings which apparently disappointed some traders /investors. The discount sale is hard to resist given the current fundamentals in the crypto markets.
NASDAQ:MARALong
by AwesomeAvani
Cheap compounder unduly punished after dividend cutHot take: there's alpha in buying dividend cuts Here's a contrarian belief I hold: dividend cuts are almost always good, because they extend the life and increase the terminal value of the company. However, the market almost always punishes companies that cut dividends. There are two reasons for that: 1) A lot of investors don't read financial reports and don't know the financial situation of the company until the dividend cut acts as an information signal. 2) Income/dividend investing tends to be very rules-based, with the main rule being that you should only own "dividend aristocrats" that have steadily increased dividends without a cut. Thus, there tends to be more sellers than buyers for a while after a dividend cut, because the income investors jump ship faster than the value investors catch on. A dividend cut can therefore present a good buying opportunity for value investors who can time it right. And there's another factor to consider, too, which is that not every dividend cut is a sign of financial distress. There are two kinds of companies that cut dividends: those that couldn't sustain the payout, and those that see a market opportunity and want to pivot to growth. Uninformed investors often punish both types of dividend cuts identically, even though the meaning of the information signal is quite different in the two cases. Medifast: an unduly punished compounder And that brings me to the case of Medifast, a small-cap nutrition and weight-loss company that discontinued its $6.60/share dividend last month. Was this because of financial distress? Actually, no. Medifast had $11.01/share of earnings and $15.57/share of free cash flow over the last 12 months, so it easily could have sustained the dividend. Medifast's explanation for the cut is that it wants to free up capital to pursue a growth strategy. With the recent popularity of GLP-1 weight loss drugs like Ozempic, Medifast wants to add GLP-1s as a core part of its health coaching business and quickly scale the business out. The dividend cut is a sign of distress only in the sense that Medifast earnings and revenue have declined since mid 2022, and the company is moving to arrest that slump and return its trajectory to growth. How cheap it it really? Let's look at Medifast's multiples. According to its last financial report, Medifast has zero debt and just $17 million in lease obligations. With a $578 million market cap and $113 million in cash and cash equivalents, that puts Medifast's enterprise value at $482 million. Over the last twelve months, Medifast generated about $1.2 billion in sales, $119 million in earnings, and $170 million in free cash flow, which gives it the following multiples: EV/earnings: 4.1 EV/sales: 0.4 EV/FCF: 2.8 That's a 35% trailing twelve months free cash flow yield. Now, Medifast is definitely more expensive on a price-to-book basis, about 3.0 P/B. But that's not necessarily a bad thing, as it indicates that Medifast is a capital-light business with a high return on invested capital. If it can get anywhere near the same return on its savings from the dividend cut, then there's a lot of growth potential here. We do have to be a little cautious about the TTM multiples, because Medifast may have been over-earning during this period. But if we use linear-modeled rather than real numbers, the results aren't dramatically different. The EV/earnings and EV/sales multiples change only negligibly, though EV/FCF rises to 4.0 (free cash flow yield of 25%). To be sure, analysts' forward estimates paint a more subdued picture, with a forward EV/earnings multiple of about 8.9 and forward EV/sales of about 0.6. But those are still good multiples, and it's important to note that Medifast has a long history of crushing analyst estimates. In the last fours quarters, it beat earnings forecasts by 99%, 92%, 53%, and 67%, with revenue beats ranging from about 1% to 10%. So the analysts may be underrating Medifast's prospects here, and I am looking for earnings at least 40% better than forecast. Even if they fail to monetize GLP-1s, they can buy back stock Even if I'm wrong, 8.9 and 0.6 are still really good multiples, making this an attractive value stock. And Medifast's dividend cut should free up capital not only for its growth strategy, but also for opportunistic buybacks while the stock is cheap. Medifast is my largest single name, at about 5% of my portfolio. There is support at the March 2018 low of $50.11 and the March 2020 low of $41.53. I'm looking for a double, to about $107.
NYSE:MEDLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
15
Gold Shines Brighter as Fed Eases and Recession Fears Loom LargeAs the Federal Reserve continues its aggressive monetary policy tightening measures and economic uncertainty mounts, investors are increasingly turning to gold as a safe haven asset. Gold's enduring appeal as a store of value and its ability to hedge against inflation/deflation and economic downturns make it a compelling investment option in today's volatile market conditions. The Fed's ongoing quantitative tightening measures have caused treasury yields to skyrocket thus they have to print more money to pay for higher yields. Gold, on the other hand, shall be the main beneficiary of higher yields, making it a valuable hedge against the printer. Furthermore, as fears of a recession deepen, investors are seeking assets that can provide stability and protection. Gold's historical resilience in times of economic hardship has made it a go-to investment for risk-averse investors. In conclusion, gold's combination of scarcity, durability, and its ability to retain value over time makes it a powerful asset in a world of economic uncertainty. As the Fed's monetary policy tightening and recession fears continue to weigh on markets, gold is likely to remain a popular investment choice for those seeking a safe haven amidst the turbulence. Please note that these are my personal opinions and they could be wrong.
TVC:GOLDLong
by SabahEquityResearch
6
What is going on?The increase in total market capitalization volume, excluding the top ten cryptocurrencies, from an average of $27.59 billion over the past 30 days to $86.77 billion within just this week suggests a significant surge in trading activity and liquidity across the broader cryptocurrency market, beyond the largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. Overall, the surge in total market capitalization volume, excluding the top ten cryptocurrencies, reflects a period of increased activity and interest in the broader cryptocurrency market, driven by a combination of factors such as altcoin enthusiasm, new project launches, and positive market sentiment. It's essential for investors to stay informed and exercise caution when navigating these dynamic market conditions.
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERSLong
by Gurman01
Can INTC breakout from a trinagle ? LONGINTC on a 180 minute chart is in a flat bottom triangle since before earnings. The earnings report was a beat of 20% on earnings and 1.5 % on revenue but apparently disappointed greedy traders expecting more. Price has been mostly sideways. I saw the dip on Tuesday to Thursday as an opportunity to take a call option trade for Friday which had a great return. I see INTC ready to gain price and break out of the triangle. It has a P/E ratio much lower than some of the high flyers in its subsector making it attractive to value-seeking investors and traders who like to buy at the lows. Price is now above the long-term POC line where buying pressure should predominate. Having seen the rise on Friday, some short sellers may begin to buy to cover and close their positionons especially those with put options from which the time to realize profits is now.
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by AwesomeAvani
IBM Bull Flag: LongPosition: Bought 80, 290 strike OTM January 17 2025 Calls at $0.08 TA: Bull flag with a symmetrical triangle at the tail end of it. Targeting underlying price of between $235 and $250 between May 2024 and November 2024. FA: Market Cap $170B with Revenue at GETTEX:61B annually as of 2023, with positive earnings. Deeply undervalued compared to other names like Microsoft, Tesla, and NVIDIA. Lots of enterprise solutions for the AI boom. IBM trading at 2.7x Revenue currently, meanwhile MSFT at 14x, NVNDA at 32x, and TSLA at 6x.
NYSE:IBMLong
by evolve-quant
Bitcoin's market cap is now nearly 2x TeslaThis chart caught my attention. I had to write about it. I am not sure what it means, but in terms of market risk, tech, and what assets have the mainstream's attention, I did not expect Tesla to underperform as much as it has. Both Bitcoin and Tesla are remarkable assets in their own right, yet the recent divergence in their valuations is striking. This divergence raises intriguing questions about how the market is pricing specific assets or favoriting for the long run. Will Bitcoin continue to outpace traditional high-growth stocks like Tesla? Are growth stocks now value stocks? Has Bitcoin become the new large cap player? I'll be watching these two closely, but specifically Tesla, as it does strike me as a potential dip buy.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by scheplick
1
Cisco Systems (CSCO) 31% margin of safety NOW!!!Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) is a global technology leader that designs, manufactures, and sells networking equipment, software, and services. The company operates in four primary segments: Infrastructure Platforms, Applications, Security, and Other. Price Analysis Based on a 5.5% discount rate and a 10-year average growth rate of 3.83%, our DCF model suggests that Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) has an intrinsic value of approximately $70.25. With the current market price of $48.06, there appears to be a 31% margin of safety, indicating that the stock may be undervalued. It appears that Cisco's Earnings Yield, which is a measure of how much profit a company is generating relative to its stock price, is currently 6.84%. This is higher than the current US Dollar fixed deposit rate of 5.5%. This indicates that, from a relative perspective, Cisco is offering a higher return on investment compared to a fixed deposit in US Dollars. Quality Analysis Cisco's operating margin of 27.25% (black line) is indeed significantly higher than the average operating margin of its competitors, which stands at 13.74% (red line). This indicates that Cisco is more efficient in generating profits from its operations compared to its competitors, which could be a positive sign for potential investors. Cisco's ROE of 29.99% (black line) is indeed higher than the average ROE of its competitors, which stands at 23.86% (red line). This indicates that Cisco is generating a higher return on shareholders' equity compared to its competitors. Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) exhibits a Free Cash Flow Margin of 33.40% (black line), which surpasses the average Free Cash Flow Margin of its competitors, standing at 15.49% (red line). This distinction underscores Cisco's superior ability to convert its revenue into free cash flow, signifying operational efficiency and robust cash generation relative to its peers. Free Cash Flow Margin, a pivotal metric, delineates a company's capability to produce cash from its operations after accounting for capital expenditures. Cisco's notable performance in this area suggests a prudent allocation of resources, efficient management of working capital, and a focus on capital expenditure optimization. Competitive Landscape Cisco faces competition from both traditional networking players and newer entrants in the market. However, Cisco's strong brand reputation, extensive product portfolio, and global reach give it a competitive advantage in the market. The stock appears to be undervalued based on current market prices and offers a higher return on investment compared to fixed deposit rates. However, investors should carefully consider the risks before making any investment decisions.
NASDAQ:CSCOLong
by theartofinvest
2
Remember Expensify!? I remember when this company had a Super Bowl commercial. I remember its IPO. I am also familiar with its platform, which I still use to this day and was surprised to see how far its fallen. Can it ever make a come back? A few things stand out to me: The company has cleared its debt, a significant move that shifts its financial landscape from leveraged to liquidity-rich. With its balance sheet now boasting only cash, earning steady interest from 5% treasuries and CDs. Furthermore, the company still has an active $41 million stock buyback program that has not used. What are they waiting for? Financially, Expensify projects a free cash flow (FCF) of $10-12 million this year. When you consider the current market price, the stock is trading at roughly 10 times its FCF, significantly lower than the industry standard for tech companies, which often hovers around 30 times FCF. Decisions, decisions! Always do your own research. Some of my trades are great, others are bad! This one has my attention.
NASDAQ:EXFY
by scheplick
1
Analyzing the FaZe-Gamesquare Merger: A Potential OpportunityIn the dynamic world of stock trading, the recent discussion of a merger between FaZe Holdings and Gamesquare has stirred considerable interest. As of now, FaZe's current trading price stands at a modest $0.18, while Gamesquare boasts a more robust $1.52. This valuation difference opens the door to intriguing possibilities for FaZe Holdings investors. The considerable gap in trading prices suggests potential room for movement in FaZe's stock. Savvy traders might see this as an opportunity to capitalize on potential future developments arising from the merger. However, it's essential for investors to approach this with caution, considering various factors such as market trends, the impact of the merger on FaZe's business model, and broader industry dynamics. While the price differential is noteworthy, thorough analysis and a comprehensive understanding of the market landscape will be key in making informed investment decisions.
FLong
by xProdigy
XAUUSD, Short Term Investment, DowTheoryGold continues to exhibit a bearish trend in the short and mid-term timeframes while maintaining a neutral stance in the long term. The Dow Theory is continuing its trajectory. Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings indicate overbought conditions in the short and mid periods. Bearish sentiment prevails in the market. Bearish Engulfing encountered on 1H & 4H. Dollar on other end shows more Hawkish tune last week than expected. Our recommendation entails identifying four trading opportunities suitable for scalpers and day traders, emphasizing a bearish outlook.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by syedshanifahmed
NXU & Lynx: Could we see a merge/acquisition in the future?Nxu's Strategic Partnership with Lynx Motors Nxu, Inc. (NASDAQ: NXU), a company specializing in innovative EV charging and energy storage solutions, has announced a strategic partnership and investment in Lynx Motors. This partnership is outlined in a letter of intent (LOI) and represents a significant step in Nxu's commitment to electrification and the future of electric vehicles (EVs). Key Details of the Partnership Strategic Investment: Nxu's investment in Lynx Motors is structured as a share exchange, with $3 million in Nxu shares being exchanged for $3 million in Lynx shares. This investment will be reflected as an asset on Nxu's balance sheet. Board Representation: As part of the transaction, Nxu will receive a seat on Lynx's Board of Directors, indicating a deep level of involvement and influence in Lynx's strategic direction. Collaborative Development: Nxu aims to assist Lynx in leveraging its vehicle and charging technology to expedite the development of electrified products. Lynx Motors is known for reimagining classic vehicles with modern amenities and powertrains, blending tradition with innovation. Financial Support: Lynx will issue an interest-free promissory note of $250,000 to Nxu in exchange for a $250,000 bridge loan, further solidifying the financial collaboration between the two companies. Professional Analysis Complementary Strengths: This partnership leverages Nxu's expertise in EV charging and energy storage with Lynx's focus on electrifying classic vehicles. It's a strategic alignment that combines technological innovation with a unique market niche. Market Positioning: Lynx's approach to electrifying popular classic cars, coupled with its robust reservation list, suggests strong market demand. Nxu's involvement could accelerate Lynx's path to significant revenue and profitability. Impact on Nxu's Market Compliance: The partnership is a step towards Nxu's compliance with Nasdaq's listing standards, potentially increasing shareholder equity and market confidence. Future Prospects: The collaboration between Nxu and Lynx, especially in the realm of EVs, aligns with the broader trend towards electrification in the automotive industry. This partnership could position both companies favorably in a rapidly evolving market. Conclusion The strategic partnership between Nxu and Lynx Motors represents a synergistic collaboration that could enhance both companies' positions in the EV market. By combining Nxu's charging technology with Lynx's innovative approach to vehicle electrification, this partnership holds the potential for significant advancements in the EV sector, offering promising prospects for both companies and their stakeholders.
NASDAQ:NXULong
by Terrapins
3
Bitcoin's upper price limit will exceed $190K in 2025.In my long-term strategy, I have deeply explored the key factors influencing the price of Bitcoin. By precisely calculating the correlation between these factors and the price of Bitcoin, I found that they are closely linked to the value of Bitcoin. To more effectively predict the fair price of Bitcoin, I have built a predictive model . Based on historical experience, the limit value of price deviation has been determined, and the upper and lower limits of the price have been calculated. Observing the price of Bitcoin and the price upper and lower limits can guide trading. According to current data, calculate the upper limit of Bitcoin price in 2025. Historical simulations prove that, the prediction results of this model correspond quite high with actual values, fully demonstrating its reliability in predicting price fluctuations. When the future is uncertain and the outlook is unclear, people often choose to hold back and avoid risks, or even abandon their original plans. However, the prediction of Bitcoin is full of challenges, but I have taken the first step in exploring. 📖 Table of contents: 🏃 Step 1: Identify the factors that have the greatest impact on Bitcoin price 🏃 Step 2: Build a Bitcoin price prediction model 🏃 Step 3: Find indicators for warning of bear market bottoms and bull market tops 🏃 Step 4: Predict Bitcoin Price in 2025 🏃 Step 5: Verify the performance of indicators for warning 🏃 Step 1: Identify the factors that have the greatest impact on Bitcoin price 📖 Correlation Coefficient: A mathematical concept for measuring influence In order to predict the price trend of Bitcoin, we need to delve into the factors that have the greatest impact on its price. These factors or variables can be expressed in mathematical or statistical correlation coefficients. The correlation coefficient is an indicator of the degree of association between two variables, ranging from -1 to 1. A value of 1 indicates a perfect positive correlation, while a value of -1 indicates a perfect negative correlation. For example, if the price of corn rises, the price of live pigs usually rises accordingly, because corn is the main feed source for pig breeding. In this case, the correlation coefficient between corn and live pig prices is approximately 0.3. This means that corn is a factor affecting the price of live pigs. On the other hand, if a shooter's performance improves while another shooter's performance deteriorates due to increased psychological pressure, we can say that the former is a factor affecting the latter's performance. Therefore, in order to identify the factors that have the greatest impact on the price of Bitcoin, we need to find the factors with the highest correlation coefficients with the price of Bitcoin. If, through the analysis of the correlation between the price of Bitcoin and the data on the chain, we find that a certain data factor on the chain has the highest correlation coefficient with the price of Bitcoin, then this data factor on the chain can be identified as the factor that has the greatest impact on the price of Bitcoin. Through calculation, we found that the 🔵 number of Bitcoin blocks is one of the factors that has the greatest impact on the price of Bitcoin. From historical data, it can be clearly seen that the growth rate of the 🔵 number of Bitcoin blocks is basically consistent with the movement direction of the price of Bitcoin. By analyzing the past ten years of data, we obtained a daily correlation coefficient of 0.93 between the number of Bitcoin blocks and the price of Bitcoin. 🏃 Step 2: Build a Bitcoin price prediction model 📖 Predictive Model: What formula is used to predict the price of Bitcoin? Among various prediction models, the linear function is the preferred model due to its high accuracy. Take the standard weight as an example, its linear function graph is a straight line, which is why we choose the linear function model. However, the growth rate of the price of Bitcoin and the number of blocks is extremely fast, which does not conform to the characteristics of the linear function. Therefore, in order to make them more in line with the characteristics of the linear function, we first take the logarithm of both. By observing the logarithmic graph of the price of Bitcoin and the number of blocks, we can find that after the logarithm transformation, the two are more in line with the characteristics of the linear function. Based on this feature, we choose the linear regression model to establish the prediction model. From the graph below, we can see that the actual red and green K-line fluctuates around the predicted blue and 🟢 green line. These predicted values are based on fundamental factors of Bitcoin, which support its value and reflect its reasonable value. This picture is consistent with the theory proposed by Karl Marx in "Capital" that "prices fluctuate around values." The predicted logarithm of the market cap of Bitcoin is calculated through the model. The specific calculation formula of the Bitcoin price prediction value is as follows: btc_predicted_marketcap = math.exp(btc_predicted_marketcap_log) btc_predicted_price = btc_predicted_marketcap / btc_supply 🏃 Step 3: Find indicators for early warning of bear market bottoms and bull market tops 📖 Warning Indicator: How to Determine Whether the Bitcoin Price has Reached the Bear Market Bottom or the Bull Market Top? By observing the Bitcoin price logarithmic prediction chart mentioned above, we notice that the actual price often falls below the predicted value at the bottom of a bear market; during the peak of a bull market, the actual price exceeds the predicted price. This pattern indicates that the deviation between the actual price and the predicted price can serve as an early warning signal. When the 🟠 Bitcoin price deviation is very low, as shown by the chart with 🟩 green background, it usually means that we are at the bottom of the bear market; Conversely, when the 🟠 Bitcoin price deviation is very high, the chart with a 🟥 red background indicates that we are at the peak of the bull market. This pattern has been validated through six bull and bear markets, and the deviation value indeed serves as an early warning signal, which can be used as an important reference for us to judge market trends. The calculation formula for the price deviation of Bitcoin is as follows: btc_price_bias = btc_marketcap_log - btc_predicted_marketcap_log Specifically, we can find the rule by watching the Bitcoin price log and the Bitcoin price deviation chart. For example, on August 25, 2015, the 🔴Bitcoin price deviation was at its lowest value of -1.11; on December 17, 2017, the 🔴Bitcoin price deviation was at its highest value at the time, 1.69; on March 16, 2020, the 🔴Bitcoin price deviation was at its lowest value at the time, -0.91; on March 13, 2021, the 🔴Bitcoin price deviation was at its highest value at the time, 1.1; on December 31, 2022, the 🔴Bitcoin price deviation was at its lowest value at the time, -1. For conservative reasons, we set the lower limit value of the Bitcoin price deviation warning indicator to the larger of the three lowest values, -0.9, and the upper limit value to the smaller of the two highest values, 1. When we add the upper and lower limit values of the Bitcoin price deviation to the forecast price, we obtain the 🟠 upper limit and 🟤 lower limit of the price. This can intuitively guide trading. When the Bitcoin price is below the price lower limit, buy. When the Bitcoin price is above the price upper limit, sell. The calculation formula for the upper and lower limits of the price is as follows: btc_price_upper_limit = math.exp(btc_predicted_price_log + btc_price_bias_upper_limit) btc_price_lower_limit = math.exp(btc_predicted_price_log + btc_price_bias_lower_limit) 🏃 Step 4: Predict Bitcoin Price in 2025 According to the data calculated on February 25, 2024, the upper limit of the Bitcoin price is $194,287, which is the price ceiling of this bull market. The peak of the last bull market was on November 9, 2021, at $68,664. The bull-bear market cycle is 4 years, so the highest point of this bull market is expected in 2025, and the upper limit of the Bitcoin price will exceed $190,000. The closing price of Bitcoin on February 25, 2024, was $51,729, with an expected increase of 2.7 times. 🏃 Step 5: Verify the performance of indicators for warning 📖 Model accuracy validation: How to judge the accuracy of the Bitcoin price model? The accuracy of the model is represented by the coefficient of determination R square, which reflects the degree of match between the predicted value and the actual value. I divided all the historical data from August 18, 2015 into two groups, and used the data from August 18, 2011 to August 18, 2015 as training data to generate the model. The calculation result shows that the coefficient of determination R squared during the 2011-2015 training period is as high as 0.81, which shows that the accuracy of this model is quite high. From the Bitcoin price logarithmic prediction chart in the figure below, we can see that the deviation between the predicted value and the actual value is not far, which means that most of the predicted values can explain the actual value well. The calculation formula for the coefficient of determination R square is as follows: residual = btc_close_log - btc_predicted_price_log residual_square = residual * residual train_residual_square_sum = math.sum(residual_square, train_days) train_mse = train_residual_square_sum / train_days train_r2 = 1 - train_mse / ta.variance(btc_close_log, train_days) 📖 Model reliability verification: How to affirm the reliability of the Bitcoin price model when new data is available? Model reliability is achieved through model verification. I set the last day of the training period to February 2, 2024 as the "verification group" and used it as verification data to verify the reliability of the model. This means that after generating the model if there is new data, I will use these new data together with the model for prediction, and then evaluate the accuracy of the model. If the coefficient of determination when using verification data is close to the previous training one and both remain at a high level, then we can consider this model as reliable. The coefficient of determination calculated from the validation period data and model prediction results is as high as 0.83, which is close to the previous 0.81, further proving the reliability of this model. 📖 Strategy: When to buy or sell, and how many to choose? We introduce the Bitcoin 5A strategy. This strategy requires us to generate trading signals based on the critical values of the warning indicators, simulate the trades, and collect performance data for evaluation. In the Bitcoin 5A strategy, there are three key parameters: buying warning indicator, batch trading days, and selling warning indicator. Batch trading days are set to ensure that we can make purchases in batches after the trading signal is sent, thus buying at a lower price, selling at a higher price, and reducing the trading impact cost. In order to find the optimal warning indicator critical value and batch trading days, we need to adjust these parameters repeatedly and perform backtesting. Backtesting is a method established by observing historical data, which can help us better understand market trends and trading opportunities. When the warning indicator Bitcoin price deviation is below -0.9, that is, when the Bitcoin price is lower than the lower price limit, buy. When it is higher than 1, that is, when the Bitcoin price is higher than the upper price limit, sell. In addition, we set the batch trading days as 25 days to implement a strategy that averages purchases and sales. Within these 25 days, we will invest all funds into the market evenly, buying once a day. At the same time, we also sell positions at the same pace, selling once a day. 📖 Adjusting the threshold: a key step to optimizing trading strategy Adjusting the threshold is an indispensable step for better performance. Here are some suggestions for adjusting the batch trading days and critical values of warning indicators: - Batch trading days: Try different days like 25 to see how it affects overall performance. - Buy and sell critical values for warning indicators: iteratively fine-tune the buy threshold value of -0.9 and the sell threshold value of 1 exhaustively to find the best combination of threshold values. Through such careful adjustments, we may find an optimized approach with a lower maximum drawdown rate (e.g., 11%) and a higher cumulative return rate for closed trades (e.g., 474 times). The chart below is a backtest optimization chart for the Bitcoin 5A strategy, providing an intuitive display of strategy adjustments and optimizations. In this way, we can better grasp market trends and trading opportunities, thereby achieving a more robust and efficient trading strategy. 📖 Performance evaluation: How to accurately evaluate historical backtesting results? After detailed strategy testing, to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the results, we need to carry out a detailed performance evaluation on the backtest results. The key evaluation indices include: - Net value curve: As shown in the rose line, it intuitively reflects the growth of the account net value. By observing the net value curve, we can understand the overall performance and profitability of the strategy. The basic attributes of this strategy are as follows: Trading range: 2015-8-19—2024-2-18, backtest range: 2011-8-18—2024-2-18 Initial capital: 1000USD, order size: 1 contract, pyramid: 50 orders, commission rate: 0.2%, slippage: 20 markers. In the strategy tester overview chart, we also obtained the following key data: - Net profit rate of closed trades: as high as 474 times, far exceeding the benchmark, as shown in the strategy tester performance summary chart, Bitcoin buys and holds 210 times. - Number of closed trades and winning percentage: 100 trades were all profitable, showing the stability and reliability of the strategy. - Drawdown rate & win-loose ratio: The maximum drawdown rate is only 11%, far lower than Bitcoin's 78%. Profit factor, or win-loose ratio, reached 500, further proving the advantage of the strategy. Through these detailed evaluations, we can see clearly the excellent balance between risk and return of the Bitcoin 5A strategy.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by lilibtc
CleanSpark Major Potential CleanSpark Inc - NASDAQ:CLSK This is a unique mid tier BTC miner that is edging ahead of Cipher Mining in terms of size, production and reserves held (See below for the pecking order of 4 BTC miners). The CLSK Trade - Ideal entry would be bounce off 200 DSMA - Risk/Reward from here is 5.55 which is not bad - Stop Loss placement at 200 DSMA or POC Chart Positives - High Volume is ideal signifying increased interest ,float and momentum - Price above POC - Price above 200 DSMA - Pennant price congestion reaching its decision point The Pecking Order for BTC Miners covered to date 1. Marathon Digital NASDAQ:MARA have 156,600 rigs & mined 825 BTC in Mar 2023 (12,964 BTC Reserves) 2. Riot Platforms NASDAQ:RIOT have 95,904 rigs and mined 592 Bitcoin in June 2023 (6,696 BTC reserves) 2. Clearspark NASDAQ:CLSK have 87,936 rigs and mined 575 Bitcoin in July 2023 (1,061 BTC reserves) 3. Cipher Mining NASDAQ:CIFR have 70,000 rigs and mined 493 bitcoin in May 2023 (518 BTC reserves) Clearspark has earned its place above Cipher mining however both companies have been investing much of their Bitcoin into expanding their production lines this year which is why they have lower reserves than the likes of the well established RIOT. We will need to keep a close eye on both going forward as they both fully intend to continue to expand. I am already invested in NASDAQ:CIFR with a small initial position (previously shared a chart on this). I'll be looking for NASDAQ:CLSK exposure between here and the 200 DSMA. The risk reward is reasonable and the chart is attractive. PUKA
NASDAQ:CLSKLong
by PukaCharts
16