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Bitcoin: Can the bulls hold on?Judging from the current trend of Bitcoin and the overall market sentiment, the pressure level of 28,500 above is too strong to break through in the short term. There is a need for Bitcoin to withdraw, but the 27,000 below is still the key support for Bitcoin.Yesterday, Bitcoin broke through the recent high and stood near 28472, and then retreated to near 27300. It seems that Bitcoin will be trading sideways at least in the short term. At present, the Bitcoin price is oscillating back and forth at a high level, and the pressure above is strong, making it difficult to break through in a short period of time. Even if the Bitcoin price can continue to rise, it will at least need to be confirmed by stepping back to accumulate upward momentum during the rise, so there is a demand for retracement in the short term. On the other hand, the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges has increased significantly in the past week or so, which may also mean that BTC may face selling pressure. In the short-term treatment, the lower support is near 27500, and the initial pressure above is near 28500. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
Short
by Short-term-king
Valuing a stock - ROIC/PE - an interesting ratio As I am both a longer term and shorter term investor and trader the notion of the best way to estimate if a stock is undervalued or over valued interests me. There seem to me a number of ways to go about doing this but I was interested to see if I could combine two traditional metrics that people look at into one measure and see if that told me anything interesting. The two measures I am interested in are P/E ratio - typically used as an indicator of whether a stock is under or overvalued in terms of its price to earnings and of course sometimes reflecting also the expectancy of future earnings growth or reduction. The second measure I was interested in is ROIC - Return on Invested Capital - a fairly good measure of how well a company martials the capital it has invested into producing returns. So I decided to start checking a ratio of these two measures for a series of companies. The ratio I am using is ROIC /PE. When price goes up if EPS and ROIC are same then this ratio goes lower - and vice versa. When ROIC goes up if PE and EPS are the same then this ratio goes higher - and vice versa. When EPS goes up if ROIC and Price are unchanged then this ratio goes higher - and vice versa. When PE ratio goes up then this ratio goes lower - and vice versa. I found an interesting interplay of these factors across a range of stocks and ratios varying from below 1 up to in the twenties. I'm still thinking about what this ratio is really telling me. Here are two current examples which were correct for prices I think it was early last week. NVDA ROIC 12.3 PE 137 ROIC/PE RATIO - 0.09 ON SEMICONDUCTOR ROIC 22 PE 18.23 ROIC/PE RATIO - 1.22 Based only on this ratio and looking at the ratio for various other stocks then NVDA looks very overvalued compared to say ON Semiconductor. Some stocks cam out with really high ROIC/PE ratios and its left me wondering if these are stocks that are really undervalued. Of course the confounding factor in this that a high PE may be there because of expectations for strong future growth. But you'd have to have really strong growth in either ROIC or EPS - or a drop in stock price - for NVDA to come into ratios more like other stocks. Im interested in any thoughts people have on this ratio as a pointer to overvaluation or undervaluation of a stock. Thanks. ( Its my first public post - be gentle lol.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by wjduncan
5
Safe-haven buying may push gold prices to new heightsDuring the Asian session on Monday (March 20), gold bottomed out and rebounded. It had previously fallen to around US 1,968.18 per ounce due to technical adjustment needs, and over the weekend the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Swiss Central Bank jointly took coordinated actions to enhance market liquidity. UBS agreed to acquire Credit Suisse, which once cooled risk aversion, but this optimism quickly subsided, and buying on dips helped gold prices reverse their decline, and they are currently trading near US 2,000/ounce. It is expected that gold prices will continue to be supported by safe-haven buying, and the market is also paying attention to the Fed's interest rate decision to be released this week. The market expects to raise interest rates by only 25 basis points. The wording is difficult to be hawkish. It may pave the way for the next meeting to suspend interest rate increases. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates before July, which is also expected to provide opportunities for gold prices to rise further. Judging from the trend of gold, it is currently in a unilateral upward momentum. At present, the gold price has exceeded US 2,000/ounce, and the strong bulls have sufficient strength. In the absence of a greater weakening of the bulls, the short-term structure still maintains long expectations.If you change the bullish expectations of the bulls, it will require a greater reverse operation or obvious market news impact. Therefore, the short-term structure will still maintain the long-term expectations. Before there is a clear short signal, it is not easy to change the direction of the trend structure. In addition, the intraday chart shows that the weekly trend point is above the 5-day moving average of the daily cycle 1960. As long as it does not fall below the support of this point, don't think that gold can have room for a sharp decline.For the intraday market, gold did not continue the rise at the end of Friday at the opening of the market, but fell back and adjusted. The current lowest is near 1968. Since the decline is not strong, then in the short term, the 1968 line supports bullish, and can be adjusted upward appropriately. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Short-term-king
1
GBP/USD: The weakness of the US dollar fuels the British poundToday GBP/USD continued Friday's rally and hit its highest level in 5 weeks at 1.2250.As investors reassess the possibility of the US Federal Reserve keeping policy interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, the broad weakness of the US dollar helps GBP/USD maintain its advantage. Risk sentiment dominated the market in early Asian trading hours as the market reacted to the news that UBS Group agreed to acquire Credit Suisse Group.More importantly, the Federal Reserve has resumed daily swaps with the Bank of Canada (BoC), the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the Swiss National Bank (SNB), and the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide additional liquidity when needed. The positive impact of these developments on market sentiment is still short-lived.The sharp decline in U.S. Treasury yields shows that investors are repricing the Fed's policy outlook.According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday has fallen to less than 50%. The British FTSE 100 index fell more than 1% at the beginning of the session, and U.S. stock index futures fell 0.4% to 0.8%, reflecting a risk-averse atmosphere. Nevertheless, in the current environment, the dollar seems to have lost its attractiveness as a safe harbor.As investors become more and more worried about the deepening of the global financial crisis, they avoid betting on the Fed's active policy tightening, which will lead to a weakening of the dollar, which will lead to a strengthening of GBP/USD. In the trend of GBP/USD, the effectiveness of breaking through the downward channel has been established, and a new upward trend is being re-established. In order to determine the effectiveness of the uptrend channel, GBP/USD will also step back in the short term while maintaining a good upward trend.While GBP/USD maintains its advantage, the effectiveness of the support at the top and bottom conversion position of the 1.220 line below can be determined. Therefore, the current support below is at the 1.220 line, while the initial resistance above is at the 1.227 position, and the strong resistance is at the 1.230 position. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
Long
by Short-term-king
2
The three most worthwhile potential coins to invest in in 2023Today, I will reveal what I think is the best cryptocurrency portfolio in 2023.I think this portfolio will be the best altcoin in 2023. 1.Arweave (AR) Arweave is a Blockchain-based decentralized platform that provides a permanent and tamper-proof data storage solution.It was launched in 2017 by a group of developers led by Sam Williams.The platform aims to solve the problem of data persistence by providing a cost-effective permanent data storage solution that is accessible to everyone. A key feature of Arweave is that it uses a new consensus mechanism called proof of access (PoA).This mechanism is designed to be more energy-efficient than traditional proof-of-work (PoW) or proof-of-stake (PoS) mechanisms, and also allows faster transaction times.The working principle of PoA is to require nodes to prove that they have stored a certain amount of data on the Arweave network in order to participate in the consensus process. Arweave also has a unique economic model designed to motivate data storage on the network.The platform uses a local cryptocurrency called AR to pay for storage.AR is also used to reward nodes that participate in the consensus process, which helps ensure the security and reliability of the network.As of March 2023, AR has a market capitalization of more than 1.5 billion US dollars. A significant use case of Arweave is the creation of a decentralized social media platform.Since the data stored on Arweave is permanent and immutable, it provides a feasible alternative to traditional centralized social media platforms that are vulnerable to censorship and data leakage. In short, Arweave is a blockchain-based platform that provides a cost-effective permanent data storage solution.Its unique consensus mechanism and economic model have helped it gain attention in the blockchain community, and have the potential to revolutionize the way we store and access data in the future. 2.Chainlink (LINK) Chainlink (LINK) is a decentralized oracle network designed to connect smart contracts to real-world data so that they can interact with the outside world in a safe and reliable way.Launched in 2017, Chainlink has quickly become one of the most popular blockchain projects, with a market capitalization of more than US10 billion as of March 2023. The idea behind Chainlink is to solve the trust problem in smart contracts.A smart contract is a self-executing program that runs on the blockchain and is designed to be executed automatically when certain conditions are met.However, these conditions are usually based on data outside the blockchain, such as stock prices or weather data.In order to ensure the accuracy and immutability of this data, smart contracts need to rely on oracles. The oracle is a third-party service that can provide the data required for the execution of smart contracts.However, these oracles can be centralized, which means they are vulnerable to manipulation or attack.Chainlink tries to solve this problem by creating a decentralized oracle network that can provide reliable and secure data for smart contracts. Chainlink works by connecting smart contracts to multiple nodes in its network.These nodes are operated by independent operators, who are motivated to provide accurate data by earning LINK tokens (the native cryptocurrency of the Chainlink network).When a smart contract needs data, it sends requests to multiple nodes in the network.The node then provides its own data, which is aggregated and verified by the Chainlink protocol to ensure accuracy and consistency. One of the key features of Chainlink is its ability to provide data from off-chain sources (such as APIs and Web services).This means that smart contracts can be connected to a wide range of data sources, including traditional financial markets, weather services, and social media platforms. Chainlink is also very popular in the field of decentralized finance (DeFi), it is used to provide reliable and secure price information for various DeFi protocols.This price information is essential to determine the value of various assets and execute transactions in the DeFi ecosystem. In addition to technical features, Chainlink also has a strong and active community of developers and supporters.The project is led by Sergey Nazarov and Steve Ellis, who have a long history in the field of blockchain and smart contracts.Chainlink has also established partnerships with many large companies, including Google, Oracle, and SWIFT, which has helped increase its visibility and adoption. In general, Chainlink is a promising project that aims to solve an important problem in the blockchain field.Its decentralized oracle network has the potential to revolutionize the way smart contracts interact with the outside world, and its growing ecosystem of developers and supporters shows that it will continue to be a major player in the blockchain industry in the coming years. 3.Uniswap(UNI) Uniswap is one of the most popular decentralized exchanges in the cryptocurrency market.Uniswap is a decentralized exchange (DEX) built on the Ethereum blockchain, allowing users to trade Ethereum-based tokens without the need for intermediaries or central institutions.It was created by Hayden Adams in November 2018 and has since become one of the most widely used DEX in the cryptocurrency space. The core of Uniswap is the use of an automatic market maker (AMM) system, which means it relies on a set of algorithms to determine the price of a given asset.This is in stark contrast to traditional centralized exchanges, which usually use order books to match buyers and sellers and determine asset prices. The Uniswap agreement has two main components: the liquidity pool and the Uniswap token (UNI).The liquidity pool is a place where users can deposit their tokens to provide liquidity to the exchange. In return, they can get a portion of the transaction fees generated by the platform.On the other hand, Uniswap tokens are used for governance and allow holders to vote on important decisions related to the agreement. As of March 2023, Uniswap has been rated as one of the top decentralized exchanges, and the market capitalization of UNI tokens exceeds US 10 billion, making it one of the top 25 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. One of the main advantages of using Uniswap is its decentralized nature, which means that it will not be subject to the same risks as centralized exchanges, such as hacking or government intervention.In addition, since Uniswap is built on the Ethereum blockchain, it benefits from the security and reliability of the Ethereum network. Having said that, there are also some risks in using Uniswap.For example, the value of tokens held in the liquidity pool may fluctuate significantly depending on market conditions, which may cause liquidity providers to suffer losses.In addition, since Uniswap is a decentralized platform, there is no central authority to supervise the platform, which means that users need to be careful to avoid fraud. Overall, Uniswap is a powerful and popular decentralized exchange that provides a series of benefits for cryptocurrency traders and investors.However, as with any investment in the cryptocurrency space, it is important to conduct your own research and carefully consider the risks before investing. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Short-term-king
How to use news and data reports to make transactions profitableFrom central bank interest rate resolutions, non-farm payrolls, PMI indexes, inflation rates and other data reports, to geopolitical developments, and even natural disasters, these are major news that foreign exchange investors cannot ignore.Because the trend of the currency is always guided by these major economic events and news developments, it is accompanied by trading opportunities. Of course, not all news is worth trading, so we must be familiar with how economic events will affect currency market trends.For major transaction news and data reports, we can follow the following three steps: 1. Select news events that will cause price fluctuations Foreign exchange traders tend to pay attention to certain key economic data that have an impact on interest rate speculation. These economic data include: central bank decisions and speeches, gross domestic product (GDP) data, employment data, inflation rate and trade balance. 2. Choose the right currency pair Generally speaking, we will choose currency pairs with high liquidity. There are mainly the following 8 pairs: EUR/USD, USD/¥, AUD/USD, GBP/¥, EUR/CHF, and CHF/¥.The sufficient liquidity of currency pairs is conducive to us to use lower transaction costs to win huge profits through greater volatility. 3. Pay attention to the news release time and forecast results We have to trade based on data expectations, that is, the actual announced results are compared with the predicted values.For example, if the non-farm payrolls report is better than expected, the dollar will generally rise, and EUR/USD may fall. In addition, before the data is released, we need to check the price movement of the short-term chart (5, 10, 15-minute chart), and use the closing price to decide whether to trade the current data report.After the price trend is confirmed, open a position and set a take profit and stop loss. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
Education
by Short-term-king
Ready to short crude oilThere are still concerns about the banking crisis in Europe and the United States in the market. Some investors are even worried about the arrival of a new round of global economic crisis. Moreover, the market is still worried about the oversupply of crude oil, and the future of oil prices is still biased towards bears. It was mentioned in the article shared yesterday that once crude oil is established to be effective in breaking below the 70 mark, it is likely to fall further below the low of 66.15 on December 20, 2021 and the low of 62.46 on December 2, 2021. Near the position.At present, since crude oil fell below the low of 72.3 in the shock range, it has fallen sharply again. The lowest has reached near 65.6, and there is only room for 3 US dollars from the low of 62.46 on December 2, 2021. Now the short market is very strong, even in a small cycle, after a short pause or rebound in the falling market, it will choose to fall again, and the bulls have no resistance.Therefore, the current thinking about crude oil is still based on emptiness. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
TVC:USOILShort
by Short-term-king
Gold continues to be bullish, falling back means going longThe bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) triggered the U.S. banking crisis, and the negative news from Credit Suisse heightened concerns and risk aversion soared, which triggered a new round of gains in safe-haven assets such as gold.At present, the market is closely waiting for new clues about the banking crisis. The inflation data released recently showed that it was in line with expectations. It has been half a year since it fell from the highest 9.1% to 6%. The gap from the 2% target is still very large, showing strong stickiness.If the Fed continues to raise interest rates, the economy may have problems. If the SVB bankruptcy does not spread to the entire banking industry, the Fed has reason to continue to raise interest rates.There is still nearly a week between now and the Fed's announcement of the interest rate decision next week, which means that whether the financial pressure eases in the future will directly affect the outcome of the Fed's interest rate hike. After a short-term decline in the European market yesterday, gold quickly recovered, and the US market directly broke through the previous high, reaching the highest position of 1937.Our multi-orders near 1917 in the short-term operation yesterday very accurately captured this wave of strong market conditions. The resistance of 1950 USD is focused on the top, and the support of 1900 USD is focused on the bottom.On the daily chart, various technical indicators are clearly showing an upward trend.On the technical side, the Dayang upside on Monday matched the Dayang breakthrough at the close of last week. In fact, the long trend was established. Although there was a small yin at the top in the market on Tuesday, it was more of a technical adjustment here. Then in the conversion of the time node on Wednesday, the market re-pulled higher out of the sun, re-establishing the long trend and verifying that Tuesday belonged to the market adjustment. For the future market, we can continue to maintain a long trend response. The target of the daily price level can pay attention to the arrival situation near 1960 in the early stage to make an expectation. In the short term, after yesterday's US market and the continuation of the early intraday trading, it basically came to the bottleneck of stepping back. Intervention can pay attention to 1910 and below, support can pay attention to the 1900 mark, and focus more on the recovery of the upper space.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Short-term-king
2
GBP/USD:The pound was blocked, and the bears reacted strongly?The latest data from the United Kingdom show that the number of people employed in the British labor market has increased by 65,000, higher than the expected 52,000, and the unemployment rate remains at 3.7%.But the pace of wage growth has slowed, which is good news for the Bank of England.Because the central bank is seeking to control inflation, this is another factor to be considered at next week's interest rate meeting.On a global scale, the market turmoil after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has led to huge changes in the market's pricing of the central bank's interest rate outlook in the past few trading days.According to CME's Fedwatch tool, there is now a 25% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its next meeting.Even the market has begun to digest the expectation that the Fed will turn to interest rate cuts at the end of the year.Under this situation, the pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates may be eased, which will be of great help to resolve the British government's debt.In terms of interest spreads, the British pound will not be pulled too wide by other currencies.As a result, the pound may be able to gain some support from it. Due to the rebound of the British pound for four consecutive trading days, it has left the original downward trend channel. However, over time, the market fear caused by the US banking crisis has gradually eased. Today, the dollar index stopped falling and rebounded sharply, suppressing the rise of the British pound and driving the British pound to begin to adjust the market. At present, the British pound has the intention of returning to the downward trend channel.However, if the 1.201 position can be supported, it is possible to carry out a short-term restorative rebound on this basis. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me.
Long
by Short-term-king
13
Crude oil continues to fall, where will it stop?After the recent bankruptcy of Bank of America, the pessimism of global investors lingered, and the increase in API crude oil inventories was greater than expected. It is expected that oil prices will still be at risk of further decline in the future. In the trend of crude oil, the short-term decline continued during the day. The current lowest point during the day reached near 69.82, which broke the support near 70.09 at the bottom of the shock box for the past four months since December 9, and fell below the 70 integer mark, which means that oil prices have broken the shock trend for the past four months and have the possibility of accelerating the decline. Once it is established that the fall below the 70 mark is effective, further strong support refers to the low of 66.15 on December 20, 2021 and the low of 62.46 on December 2. Near the position. In addition, this trading day also needs to focus on the EIA crude oil inventory series data and the IEA monthly crude oil market report. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me.
TVC:USOILShort
by Short-term-king
4
Gold fell below 1900, and the decline is about to begin?At present, gold prices are slightly lower. Because the February CPI data released overnight in the United States showed that the annual core inflation rate still far exceeded the Fed's 2% target, the dollar index stopped falling and rebounded, suppressing the rise in gold prices.It is expected that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates next week and in May, with the benchmark interest rate increasing by 25 basis points each, because the report released overnight showed that the annual core inflation rate in the United States in February was still as high as 5.5%, and concerns about the long-standing banking crisis have eased.Therefore, gold's short-term upward momentum is insufficient, and the short-term short-term recovery indicates that gold may at least partially take back the gains made in the context of systemic risk panic. The rebound in U.S. bank stocks has cooled the market's risk aversion to a certain extent. From the perspective of gold's trend, gold has also recovered in a short period of time, but the main structure is still high and volatile. On March 14th, the daily line finally closed at a high level and a small negative line. Gold is technically already seriously overbought, but considering that the current market rise is mainly caused by the buying of risk aversion, and the short-term market risk aversion does not cool down, then gold may still continue to be consumed at a high level, and it is not easy to make significant adjustments.This kind of high volatility may consume more time, gather fundamentals, and may even extend the high volatility until the Fed's interest rate decision next week. In the short term, it is currently hindered by the actual suppression of the 1910 mark. If the upper space needs to be further opened, then it needs to actually stabilize above the 1910 mark to have further opportunities. As for the lower defensive thinking, as long as you hold on to the rise of 1870 this week, the bulls will succeed. In the short term, the trend of gold will still be dominated by market sentiment, and it may not be so concerned about the demand for technical trends.At present, it is difficult to predict and control the fundamentals. At present, the focus of the market is on how to deal with the bankruptcy of US banks, and this issue ultimately comes down to how to adjust the Fed's interest rate hike policy.In addition, the United States will announce retail sales and producer price indexes later in the day.Before the FOMC meeting on March 22, it will become important to observe whether U.S. retail sales data indicate any consumer downturn.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Short-term-king
2
The gold bulls are weak, and the bears are about to strike?The data released that the annual CPI rate in the United States in February was in line with the expected value of 6%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous value; the annual core CPI rate in the United States in February was in line with the expected value of 5.50%, lower than the previous value of 5.60%. The inflation data is in line with expectations, indicating that the market generally expects the Fed to continue to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in March and will not increase interest rates again.But overall, inflation has not fallen sharply, and this is not a strong data.Obviously, what the Fed has to consider now is financial stability. At present, for the gold market, the Fed's policy outlook is divided in the market. On the one hand, the banking crisis may cause the Fed to slow down the pace of interest rate increases; on the other hand, the Fed is facing a severe inflation state, and it is still far from the 2% target. Raising interest rates is still the best way to reduce inflation.From the long-term perspective, the current banking crisis is only short-lived, and it is still difficult for the crisis to spread. Raising interest rates is still the best choice for the market to suppress inflation. In terms of gold's trend, judging from the daily line, gold prices have been on the rise since March 8, and there has been no decent adjustment; in the past two days, gold has risen from a strong position on the 1870 line to the 1900 line and hit the 1914 line. At present, the US index has stopped the decline, and the gold rally has been blocked.To a certain extent, there is a gradual peaking rhythm, and I am optimistic that there will be a wave of effective adjustments in the near future. At present, the short-term support below 1896-1900 is the defensive line of the bulls, and once it breaks down, it will open up the downward space again. Why do you frequently lose money when you invest in foreign exchange? One: Counter-market operation: If you don't respect and fear the market, you will be overwhelmed by the market if you operate completely against the trend. Second: Do not set a stop loss: Stop loss is a necessary means to control risk, and not setting a stop loss is tantamount to throwing away the money directly. Third: Frequent operations: There is no trading plan, casual trading and frequent multiple transactions greatly increase the probability of loss. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Short-term-king
7
SVB: Announces bankruptcy! The situation at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) is not particularly complicated. In short, they borrowed short and invested long, mismanaged their liquidity, and caused their own demise. The specific steps were as follows: low-interest deposit-taking, overzealous investment in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS), short-term liquidity gaps, forced selling of assets, and market panic. Low-interest deposit-taking: Between 2020 and 2021, due to the Federal Reserve's extended period of 0% interest rates, there was a huge financing boom in the tech industry, with a significant portion of cash flowing into SVB. SVB's deposit liabilities surged from $61.8 billion at the end of 2019 to $189.2 billion at the end of 2021, with interest rates on this portion of deposits only around 0.25%. Overzealous investment in MBS: With so much low-interest money, SVB naturally engaged in carry trade. Typically, banks focus on lending, but SVB invested a large portion of its funds in MBS. Their financial statements showed they held $13.8 billion of MBS at the end of 2019, which had grown to $98.2 billion by the end of 2021. In other words, over 65% of the deposits they took in went towards buying MBS. Short-term liquidity gap: Normally, investing in MBS is not a problem because they can be redeemed at maturity. But SVB's problem was that it held too many MBS and had too few short-term liquid assets. In today's high-interest rate environment, tech companies are struggling to survive and are gradually withdrawing money from their deposits, causing SVB's liquidity pressures to soar. Forced selling of assets: To solve the liquidity problem, management chose the cheapest option, which was to sell their MBS holdings. But now, market interest rates had increased from nearly 0 to 5% for 2-year Treasury bonds, and asset prices had fallen significantly in sync. Selling $21 billion of assets resulted in an $1.8 billion loss. Market panic: For SVB, the $1.8 billion loss was still manageable because their shareholder equity was $16 billion. However, the problem was with the $100 billion of MBS that they had not yet sold. If there was a run on the bank, this could result in a potential loss of $15 billion, causing SVB to go bankrupt. Therefore, there was a great deal of panic in the market, causing the stock price to plummet by 60% in a single day. SVB has now declared bankruptcy, and the US government has intervened. It is being managed by a specialized institution. When a bank of this size collapses, there are bound to be chain reactions. The institutions known to be affected include Circle. For those who invest in stocks, they may not have heard of it, but those who invest in cryptocurrencies certainly have, as the most famous stablecoin, USDC, is issued by Circle. The total amount is $40 billion, and in today's announcement, they revealed that $3.3 billion of their assets were stuck in SVB, accounting for almost 8%. This means that those who invest in cryptocurrencies suddenly find that their $100 has shrunk to $92. To say that it's a seismic event is not an exaggeration. There are likely dozens of institutions of a similar scale to Circle that are also trapped, but for various reasons, they are not disclosing their situation. We'll have to wait and see when they come forward. Follow me and you'll get more interesting investment information! Plus, I'll share real-time trading strategies during trading hours, including stocks, gold, crude oil, forex, cryptocurrencies, and more!
Editors' picks
S
by EagleEyeStrategy
22
Will Bitcoin continue to fall?BTC: Judging from the daily chart, the market was super negative yesterday, which seems to mean that its direction is chosen. Even if there is a rebound trend after the plunge, both in terms of the strength of the rebound and the time of the rebound, the bulls are basically defenseless at present, and as the rebound trend gradually consumes the rebound momentum, the height of the rebound will also decrease. On the 4-hour chart, the market has returned to the structure of the third wave again, and the decline has been strengthened and confirmed. Now that the third wave is not in place, the probability of continuing to fall is relatively high. And on the fundamentals, the risks still tend to be downside due to the ongoing concerns about the ongoing cryptocurrency crackdown by US regulators. Therefore, in terms of operating ideas, it is mainly based on rebound shorting, and the height of the rebound can be appropriately reduced, so don't easily try to make a profit from the rebound. BTC: 20800-20900 short, target 20100-20000 In order to make it easier for everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel, if you can't follow up in real time, you may make mistakes in operation. You can enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow the market trend in real time through the following methods.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Blessed_V
3
Bitcoin, ready to enter with empty ordersBitcoin fell in a waterfall under the influence of market pessimism and news. The K-line once broke below 20,000, and the lowest reached the position of 19569. In the case of catharsis of bearish sentiment, the bulls did not resist and fell all the way. At present, although the bears are showing signs of slowing down, they began to rebound under the structure of the 5th and 10th moving average forming the support of the golden fork, but the strength of the rebound is still limited, so in the absence of obvious strong support below, you can't go against the trend in terms of operation, but you still have to conform to the trend and focus on the high altitude. Operating strategy: Rebound to near 20700, empty orders enter the market In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Blessed_V
Silver, You should dump your paper and buy some physicalOANDA:XAGUSD Paper trading things like silver and gold are a total joke. You who trade paper shares are trading in mostly fake, extremely diluted, worthless shares. Your paper certificate is diluted somewhere on a ratio of 900 paper shares to every actual physical once of silver. Soon enough, actual silver will decouple itself from these made up paper shares. When it decouples, physical silver will go through the roof, and the silver paper market will crash, because it will be no longer tied to silvers actual spot. It is a massive risk to be involved in paper shares of anything that is diluted so much, its insane. Hard times are very close, the crash is right around the corner. Best invest in physical, or if not, be aware of the risks that come with the paper market. Also. To those using technical analysis on Silver or Gold.. It does not work so well, especially right now, because precious metals have too much reaction to financial instability and economic crisis. I wish all a great day and to stay strong in the hard time that will come upon us all. Prayers. Strength and Unity.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by friedolays
The prices of these coins will soar all the way in 2023 1. AI coins ChatGPT is the next big thing because it can quickly solve difficult tasks.It has passed a major medical exam in the United States, cooperated with Microsoft, and is attracting competition from Google. Therefore, crypto AI technology is booming, driving the bullish momentum of coins such as $FET, $AGIX,$GRT,$RNDR and several AI coins. 2. ZK Rollups Ethereum stores global transaction data, but high gas fees make it difficult.ZK-rollups uses encryption tools to reduce the Ethereum blockchain space and expand the network. This is a promising technology extensibility solution for Ethereum. The following is a list of coins with ZK summary: $LRC,$IMX,$MINA,$MATIC will release the beta version of the zkEVM mainnet. 3. Mobile pledge tokens on decentralized pledge services The SEC plans to ban pledge services in the United States, which has threatened the cryptocurrency pledge industry. Kraken was fined US300,000 and ordered to shut down its pledge service, and coinbase is also preparing to fight the SEC's crackdown. Liquidity pledge tokens are on the rise, because decentralized pledge services may replace centralized platforms that may face bans in the United States. The following are some coins that are bullish after the event: $LDO,$RPL and $ANKR. 4. Chinese coin Narrative HongKong will officially legalize Crypto buying, selling and trading for all its citizens in 2023.This also includes institutions in mainland China. As a result, Chinese currency is bullish. LINA: Cross Chain Exchange from Hong Kong, Binance Launchpad KEY: Enabling Crypto Payments in Hong Kong MDT: Monetizing Data Coin from Hong Kong ACH: Enabling Crypto Payments in Hong Kong SAND: Building Hong Kong's Metaverse Backed by Animoca Brands 5. Bitcoin ordinal According to coinmarketcap, the BTC ordinal number is "sats" or satoshis, which has been sorted and engraved with a piece of information, such as text or images.This piece of information makes sat unique and turns it into a de facto NFT. In this kind of hype, what coins have soared? Stacks' $STX token soared to a nine-month high of US1.0491 due to increased interest in Bitcoin NFT driven by the ordinal project. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Blessed_V
2
Short crude oil when reboundingBecause the market is vigilant about frequent and more substantial interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, concerns about the global recession have increased, and the global stock market has generally weakened, which has dragged down oil prices. On the daily chart, oil prices continued to weaken in the short term, and fell back after the rebound in the previous trading day was blocked, suggesting strong selling pressure above.From the technical structure point of view, oil prices have still been in a wide fluctuation trend in recent months, and at the same time, they have also formed a short-term wedge-shaped consolidation trend to make a transitional market before the direction is chosen.The current support and strong support for oil prices are the 74.3 line on the wedge-shaped extension cord and the 72.3 line on the extension cord of the shock box below. The resistance above the short period is at the 76.5 line, and the stronger resistance is at the 77.6 line at the intersection of the short-period moving average and the Bollinger band. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
TVC:USOILShort
by Blessed_V
What is the golden rule of taking profits? For trading stocks, futures, or forex, taking profits is also part of the trading process. For investors, taking profits and adhering to it during a trade is effective. When to take profits? Where is the best position for stop loss and take profit? Which strategy is more profitable? Taking profits and stop loss is one of the most important aspects of trading. If not handled properly, it could lead to losses. In previous articles, we have discussed the rule of stop loss. This chapter will discuss the rule of taking profits. Investors are advised to follow and read this article. If it is helpful, please give it a like. Thank you. Methods of taking profits Taking profits means closing the position and securing profits when the trading goal is achieved to prevent market reversal. Taking profits can be divided into static and dynamic methods. Static taking profits means setting a target for taking profits and closing the position when the target is reached. For example, if the profit expectation is 100 points and the price has risen 100 points, the position is closed to take profits. The target for taking profits is fixed and static. Dynamic taking profits means the profit target is dynamic and is held until the price meets a dynamic standard before closing the position. For example, when holding a long position and floating profits, close the position when the market price breaks the bearish level. Traders cannot know in advance where the bearish level will appear and need to monitor the market dynamics. Next, we will discuss five methods of taking profits. Method 1: Fixed point profit taking This is the simplest method of static taking profits. After entering the position, set a fixed profit space. This profit-taking method is more suitable for intraday and short-term trading. For example, after entering an intraday trading position, set a fixed profit-taking point of 50 points. Intraday trading has a relatively obvious characteristic of fluctuating trends, and market prices tend to rebound and even fluctuate repeatedly. The profits from holding positions during market rebound may be given back, so setting a fixed profit-taking point can be more advantageous during trading. In practical trading, the number of fixed stop-loss points should be set according to the volatility of different products. For products with high volatility, set a larger number of fixed stop-loss points, and for products with low volatility, set a smaller number of fixed stop-loss points. Please note that this method should not be underestimated simply because it is simple. Whether this method is useful or not depends on the specific usage environment. Method 2: Fixed profit and loss ratio take profit. This is a commonly used static take profit method in medium and short-term trading. First, let's talk about the profit and loss ratio. The ratio of the profit space of an order to the stop loss space is the profit and loss ratio. For example, if the profit is 100 points and the stop loss is 50 points, the profit and loss ratio is 2:1. Fixed profit and loss ratio means that the take profit is set according to a fixed ratio based on the stop loss space. For example, if the stop loss of an order is 100 points, setting the take profit at 100 points results in a profit and loss ratio of 1:1. Setting the take profit at 150 points results in a profit and loss ratio of 1.5:1. Setting the take profit at 200 points results in a profit and loss ratio of 2:1, and so on. The fixed profit and loss ratio method is easy to operate and highly executable. Moreover, when the market fluctuates and the stop loss space expands, the take profit space will also expand accordingly, making it very flexible. Method 3: Take profit combined with technical indicators. This is also a static take profit method. After entering an order, the take profit is set based on technical indicators. For example, setting the take profit at the level of previous highs and lows, or at the support and resistance levels of the Bollinger Bands or important moving averages, is feasible. In addition, in practical trading, it is common to enter and exit at small time frames while looking at the support and resistance levels of larger time frames. For example, entering at the 5-minute level and setting the take profit at the support and resistance level of the 1-hour chart, or entering at the hourly level and setting the take profit at the Bollinger upper and lower bands of the daily chart, is essentially a logic of "going small and looking big". Method 4: Take profit following the trend. This is a dynamic take profit mode and a trend-based take profit strategy. After entering an order, the position is held following the trend indicator, and the position is held until a reversal signal is issued, at which point the take profit is closed. Tracking with trend lines, channel lines, and turning points in the market are all common practices in daily trading. Method 5: Combination of multiple methods, batch-wise profit taking. The above four methods are the most mainstream and commonly used methods, but each method has its pros and cons. For example, the fixed profit and loss ratio method cannot hold onto trend profits, and the trend tracking method cannot make profits in volatile markets. Therefore, some clever traders combine these methods and take profits in batches. For example, after the order is entered, when the profit and loss ratio reaches 1:1, part of the position is closed, and the remaining position is exited using the trend tracking method to achieve greater profits. In practical trading, traders can combine the above profit-taking methods in different ways, such as combining the support and resistance levels of the previous high with the fixed profit and loss ratio, or combining the support and resistance levels of the previous high with the trend tracking method. After discussing these five profit-taking methods, it is only providing traders with an idea, and the specific results of practical trading must be reviewed and analyzed in combination with their own trading systems. OANDA:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD
TVC:GOLDEducation
by Ice_and_Fire1
5
During the Super Data Week, will XAUUSD drop to 1804? Powell will testify before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday on the Fed's semi-annual monetary policy report. He will then testify before the House Financial Services Committee on the same topic on Wednesday. The market will also digest the latest non-farm payroll report for February, which is widely expected to add 200,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 3.4%. The upcoming testimony of Fed Chairman Powell and the February employment report will guide the direction of precious metals. The February employment report and Fed Chairman Powell's testimony in Congress this week should clarify whether recent comments about "continuing higher interest rates" are justified. In the short term, gold is still heavily dependent on data and the trend of the US dollar. If the Fed ultimately decides to raise interest rates, the trend of gold will be suppressed, and there will be a wave of downward movement. Looking at the hourly chart of XAUUSD, the current trend is running within the range of 1840-1860. It is expected that the overall trend will not form an effective breakthrough before explosive news comes out. Therefore, there is a demand for a decline when the trend reaches around 1860. Short-term traders can operate by selling high and buying low in this range. This week is the Super Data Week, with CPI, PPI, ADP, and NFP data, and the release of each data will directly affect the trend of gold, and is also the key to breaking the oscillation range. Personally, I will continue to pay attention to the release of data and the speeches of the Fed, and provide friends with the latest operational ideas. Thank you for your attention and support.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FlashTrades_
1