Japan Weakens - Invest in USDJPY Now!As you may have heard, Japan's economy has been experiencing some weakening lately. The country's GDP has declined for the past two quarters, and its government is struggling to stimulate growth. In addition, the Bank of Japan has been keeping its interest rates at harmful levels, putting pressure on the yen.
But what does this mean for us as traders? Simply put, it means that now is the perfect time to invest in USDJPY. Moreover, with Japan's economy weakening, the yen is also expected to weaken, making the USDJPY pair an excellent option for traders looking to make some profits.
So, what are you waiting for? Take advantage of this opportunity and invest in USDJPY now! You could make some serious gains with the right strategy and some luck.
As always, I recommend researching and analyzing before making any investment decisions. However, if you're looking for a good investment opportunity, USDJPY is worth considering.
I hope you found it informative and helpful.
Value
GOLD - RangeGOLD -
With NFP data releasing soon, we might see another upward momentum in GOLD as the forecast data is below the prior, if the number drops below what is expected then GOLD probably should be back in trading in 2000s.
If NFP is higher than expected then we can see a steep dive in GOLD.
NFP - LOW - GOLD - HIGH
NFP - HIGH - GOLD - LOW
SPX The S&P 500 is heading towards a major resistance around the 4310 level. This is the last major resistance that needs to be taken in order to go up.
With the current state of the economy the rejection of this level is the most likely scenario. The rise in interest rates see no end this summer. And historically there tends to be a market crash after they stop raising rates and start cutting them.
Another factor is that the government will raise the debt celling causing more money to be printed which weakens the state of the economy even more. But generally will cause prices in the market to rise.
The only thing that will make the market really bullish is some new development or technology such as AI that will rapidly increase production in the United States. But currently we are at a 50/50 point on which direction we will end up going heading into 2024.
The main things to watch are the debt celling bill and the terms with in it, the Fed reserve rate hikes and what they project in the future, and any major news development of new tech and trade deals, as well as energy production and government easing restrictions on drilling.
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3M Position Trade✨ NEW: 3M...UT (3M, 3D) ✨ POSITION TRADE ✨
BLO1 @ 74.34
BLO2 @ 50.99 (Wealth Trade - I may never let this position go)
TP1 @ 112.53 (shave 25% from BLO 1)
TP2 @ 175.83 (shave 25% from BLO 1)
TP3@ 215.82 (shave 25% from BLO 1)
3M Co. is a technology company that creates industrial, safety, and consumer products. They operate under different segments such as Safety and Industrial, Transportation and Electronics, Health Care, and Consumer.
Recently, the company has faced a major challenge involving around 260,000 pending lawsuits due to their military earplugs malfunctioning. The outcome of these legal proceedings could greatly impact 3M, either causing severe consequences or presenting a unique investment opportunity.
Our team predicts that despite the uncertainty, institutions will likely intervene and purchase 3M's stock as it returns to its established pattern of gradual and steady growth, also known as the company's intrinsic or true value. However, it is important to acknowledge that the future outcome is still subject to change and could sway in either direction.
Here is my strategy: I plan to sell 25% of my BLO1 holdings at every take profit point, while keeping the remaining amount for a long-term investment. However, I have no plans to sell any of my BLO2 holdings and will be holding them for the long term. This is commonly referred to as the "diamond hand strategy."
Happy Trading‼️
Is Paypal a Memestock?Mounting debt may be an issue, but there's no way NASDAQ:PYPL should look like this from a chart perspective.
While NASDAQ:NVDA became the 6th largest company in the world today, Paypal used to be a $400+ billion dollar enterprise, but it looks like junk now.
What gives? The company still throws off more than $30b in revenue a year, pricing it at only 2.5x sales???
A lot of worry has been put into NASDAQ:AAPL launching their new payments platform, but no actual product has hit the market yet. Until then, PayPal is still for sure the global leader and an undervalued player relative to its peers.
Maybe NASDAQ:EBAY will buy them back?
DraftKings goes bull!DKNG just beat earnings!
Having picked up a small number of calls as an earnings play based on the underlying financials of the asset, their market dominance, and the strong technicals provided on the chart, it seems evident that DKNG as a company is poised to make a run.
Short-term / scalp opportunity:
It will likely gap-fade the open first, so I would watch Friday trading hours closely. If the gap-fade happens, traders should look to go long when the fade pattern completes. Call options with 5-10 days expiry in the $22-23-24-25 strike ranges would be an excellent way to leverage this, depending on risk tolerance and position size.
Medium-term / swing trade opportunity
There is some resistance around the $25 mark, so this is the level to watch. Assuming this level is broken, traders should go long. Aggressive swing-traders could take position as early as today, but more risk-averse traders should look to take position upon break of this level which confirms the pattern illustrated here.
Long-term investment opportunity
While DKNG does not pay dividends, the chart shows that it is poised to make a significant run. Investors and other long-term traders should look to enter this position as it has the potential to return over 100% on the asset.
LONG jubilant foodworks Jubilant foodworks has shown a massive and long symmetrical triangle pattern breakout and it is the right time to enter in it.
Breakout has taken place on the weekly timeframe.
Good for the long term as well short term also.
Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation.
Only sharing for Educational purposes.
Make investment at your own risk.
Edison International AnalysisEdison International, a company of a worthy name but unworthy financials.
For the past 7 years, their profit margin was between 5% and 10% per year, except in 2018 where it went negative. Let's call that a decent performance for a utility company, one bad year can happen to anyone.
But where things get interesting is its debt. For one reason or another, Edison has been steadily growing its debt year after year which can best be seen by looking at its debt/equity. The ratio has been steadily growing from 1.04 in 2016 to 2.12 in 2022, a very slow, steady and consistent journey to where you do not want to go. To make the picture even grimmer, the company didn't have a single year with positive free cash flow since 2016, which certainly didn't help with debt.
Now, those decent profit margins, in the context of that debt, raise a question - Is the company making money just so it can spend more money it doesn't have ?
I don't know what the folks at Edison have in mind, but it appears as things in there run in reverse. As if good business is building debt instead of equity and never having any cash at your disposal. Or maybe I've got it wrong, who knows.
Anyway, we'll find out, to modify Warren Buffett - time will tell who's been swimming naked.
Have A Great Day.
General Electric AnalysisGeneral Electric, the old behemoth of the American Industry.
Since 2016, half the time GE ended a year with negative profit. At other times profits were less than 8%, all combined, not very good, to say the least.
But, from 2019 to 2022, GE has aggressively reduced its massive debt. Although a drop in equity occurred as well, the debt reduction was more significant with debt/equity dropping from 3.34 to 0.96, year after year. Exceptional. It seems something like this would require major restructuring and a highly disciplined business practice, which is a great feat in and of itself considering the depth of business abyss GE was dealing with.
Even though there is a long way to go to steady income and healthy finances, I am looking forward to the next chapter of this great giant. It will, I'm sure, at least bring us a lot of good business excitement, and possibly, the ever so thrilling story of rags to riches - again.
Have a Great Day.
just should move upthis price for oil its not good after touched last resistance .if you see chart i draw two support range for oil and should move at this channel i draw i expect at next seasion will raise demand for oil and change price so stay at true place for oil trade
DISH Network AnalysisThis stock is dirt cheap.
But is it undervalued ?
For the past seven years, Dish has maintained a profit margin between 10% and 14%. And for the same period, they managed to grow equity from 5B to 18B dollars. Very good.
But, at the same time, the lowest debt/equity was 1.15 in 2020, which is too high. All the other years it was higher, with the highest 3.57 in 2016. They managed their cash well, except in 2022 when free cash flow went negative, which probably means more debt to come. All in all, with their debt going up and down, it's as if they're on a rollercoaster of leverage.
Dish has decent margins, but I think they need far bigger chunk of their revenue to get their debt under control.
To make things trickier, Dish's price ratios such as price/earnings and price/sales are at historic lows, which is usually an indicator of undervaluation, but is it valid in this case ?
Honestly, it's hard to say. With all the company's struggles, the most appropriate answer would be - I don't know.
Regions Financial AnalysisThis is a fantastic company.
High, stable and consistent profit margin standing at 25%, on average, per year, for the past 7 years, seems to be the pillar of performance for this banking services provider.
Second stellar attribute is its ability to control debt and cash. Since 2018 to present, Regions has managed to aggressively eliminate debt, making its Debt/Equity drop from 0.94 to 0.18, making it a very healthy company running on equity rather than debt. Also, over the same period it manages to keep its equity stable at around 15B$.
Since 2016, the company has very good control of its cash, keeping its cash on hand(free cash flow) always at or above the level of net earnings for the year. Currently, company's cash on hand can cover its debt in full.
All this, healthy finances and consistently high profit margins, makes Regions an outstanding company. Considering its 10 year low PE, which was around 6.3 and its current PE which is 6.8, it is safe to say that at 16$ per share, with this kind of business performance, Regions is a good investment.
Have a great day.
DXY: BRICS Creating New Reserve CurrencyHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of the Charts 📈📉
Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year.
For the past eight decades, the U.S. dollar has been the dominant global currency following the Second World War. It has been widely accepted worldwide, with only a few exceptions, and is commonly recognized by the image of Andrew Jackson and the seal of the U.S. Treasury, making it the most recognizable export of the United States.
The U.S. dollar became the reserve currency of the world following the Second World War, mainly because the United States was the dominant global economic and military power at the time. The Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944 also played a crucial role in establishing the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency. Under this agreement, other countries agreed to peg their currencies to the U.S. dollar, which was backed by gold. This made the U.S. dollar a stable and reliable currency for international transactions, leading to its widespread acceptance as a reserve currency. Additionally, the U.S. had a large trade surplus, making it easier for other countries to hold dollars as reserves to pay for U.S. goods and services.
The dominance of the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency has been a source of both admiration and resentment among other countries and superpowers. Many countries have benefited from the stability and liquidity that the U.S. dollar provides as a reserve currency, allowing them to conduct international trade and investments with greater ease. However, some countries have also experienced the negative effects of dollar dominance, such as the risk of currency fluctuations and the potential for U.S. monetary policy decisions to have spillover effects on their own economies.
The U.S. dollar was not only commonly used in international transactions but also widely held as a long-term store of value across the globe. Central banks worldwide held more U.S. dollars than any other currency. This resulted in low borrowing costs for Americans , which allowed middle-class people to buy homes. Furthermore, the U.S. government was able to incur significant debts without apparent consequences due to the dollar's global dominance. Americans may not have been aware of this situation, but it had a favorable impact on their daily lives. Occasionally, the Congress discussed the debt ceiling, but it seemed like an abstract topic that most people did not care about since America controlled the global reserve currency and could print U.S. dollars. This privilege made money cheap, and Americans enjoyed benefits that were not available to other countries. However, the thought of losing this dominance was too terrible to contemplate, and concerns began to arise around the time the Russian military entered Ukraine about a year ago. The consequences of such a loss would be dire, and it was a worrisome issue.
The Russian military's invasion of Ukraine was destabilizing, as wars typically are. However, it was the West's reaction to the invasion that raised concerns. U.S. policymakers, led by USA President Joe Biden and supported by Republican senators, seemed intent on not only toppling the Russian government but also disrupting the post-World War II economic order that had benefitted the U.S. for decades. The sanctions weren't expected to harm the U.S. economy more than the Russian economy. Russia's economy is not heavily reliant on financial services but on natural resources such as oil, gas, iron, and coal . Despite the sanctions imposed on Russia, its Ruble remains stable against the US dollar, which suggests that the sanctions did not have a significant long-term impact on Russia's economy. The seizure of Russia's central bank's dollar reserves was intended to collapse Russia's credit system and cause bank runs, but it didn't happen. The USA did not consider the dangers when using the dollar, the sign of security and unity, as a weapon. The result of this is unsurprising, many countries lost confidence in the dollar. And so, Russia, Brazil, Pakistan, India, Malaysia, France, China, and Saudi Arabia are conducting business in currencies other than the US dollar, such as the Chinese currency Yuan. This is happening at a fast pace and shutting out the US dollar, which is losing trust from other countries due to its use as a weapon and excessive printing, leading to inflation and currency devaluation.
💭Final Thoughts 💭
We look to history to speculate on the future. As the saying goes, history repeats itself.
During the First World War, the German government borrowed heavily to finance the war effort, resulting in a significant increase in national debt. The government continued to print money to pay for its expenses, which led to hyperinflation and a collapse of the German economy in the early 1920s. In 1923, the German mark was practically worthless, and people had to carry wheelbarrows of money to buy basic goods. This hyperinflation had a devastating effect on the German people, wiping out their savings and pensions and causing widespread poverty and social unrest. The situation stabilized when the German government introduced a new currency, the Rentenmark, backed by mortgages on agricultural and industrial land which restored some degree of confidence in the currency.
The German government basically inflated their currency due to excessive debt accumulated from war. The United States has a similar history with wars, relying on the reserve currency status to recover from the economic damage of these wars. However, considering the large economical impact of Russia and BRICS's contribution the the economy, it could be catastrophic due to the current state of the US economy.
The BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are exploring the possibility of creating a new reserve currency as an alternative to the US dollar-dominated international financial system. The proposal was discussed at a virtual meeting of the BRICS finance ministers and central bank governors, with a goal to decrease the dependency on the US dollar and increase trade between member countries. However, no specific details were provided yet about the potential reserve currency.
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Hitting LowsATSG is sitting right now at the $15 price point which we have not seen it trade around since back in March of 2020. With price back at this low range, analyst are still holding their price valuations of around $22-$27 making this a favorable target for long term portfolio growth. The last two earning reports were more on the negative side although the company has shown before its ability to be able to generate revenue historically. Having hit highs of just under $35 at the start of the year we can start to see where the peaks and valleys of this range will be.
More testing for LiliumAlthough sadden to hear that lilium is no longer entering the market in central Florida it is exciting to see their continued growth and testing for developing a quality product. With shares hitting the low of about .38 price is now moving up towards $1 at a quite rapid pace. Although there are still many hurdles in the US for this technology. Other country may not be as slow to adopt this growing method of travel. Options trading may be limited although as confidence in the product rises the narrative may change.
A nice setup this is playing out to bePlease provide a meaningful and detailed description of your analysis and prediction. Walk us through your thought process. Put yourself in the reader’s shoes and see if you would understand the context based on what you wrote. Clearly stated profit targets and stop loss areas help clarify any trade idea.
A cup and handle formation. Appears poised for the return trip up to the 12 dollar range. Take some profits (10-75%) and hang on for the ride to the moon. Hopefully get off before stop-lossing at 2019 low.
Shadow Banking The shadow banking system is something you're probably not familiar with.
Until today!
the shadow banking system is made up of mainly investment banks i.e. your market whales or market makers, money market funds i.e. like schwab and vanguard, and hedge funds. these financial entities dont give out loans to you or I, but rather trade amongst themselves. which is what is known as the shadow banking system.
one of the main functions of the Shadow Banking system is to provide liquidity aka money (which is mostly made up anyways) to the financial system. for example if a whale wants to move a massive amount of money into a position, or what happened to Zimbabwe a while back and give an entire nation a loan at a ridiculous amount of interest they're able to do so, or take a massive position in a promising opportunity and need capital fast!
How does this work? How do you ensure that a hedge fund will pay back on their loan?
collateral!
Usually in the form of government issued bonds and bills. one can trade an equilivent amount of t-bills plus interest for X-amount of dollars to carry out said transaction.
example:
Hedge fund A wants to take a position shorting the RMBS market. (strictly coincidental) Hedge Fund A is so confident in their analysis they are willing to take a whales position. they need the capital. well like all good risk management practices they have off set their high beta shares with low risk positions. the lowest risk investment you can have is a US Bond or Treasury Bill.
So, Investment bank A says okay I can lend you 10 Billion Dollars at a 4% interest rate per day for 3 days, if you default I keep your Bonds. The swap happens.
Now, Hedge Fund A has not only to make their money back on the bond trade, but they have to make at least 4.01% to make the trade profitable and they have 3 days to do it.
Another way this can be done is Hedge Fund B says I too am going to short the RMBS market but i am going to offer it to all the investment banks and other hedge funds. So they offer it as an investment opportunity. the offering fund takes a small fee and the winnings or losings are dealt accordingly.
while this might sound a a little familiar... well it is! names and places have been changed to protect the innocent.
The major critique the financial system has with this Shadow Banking is that its not really regulated. becasue going back to our example with Hedge Fund A
If Hedge Fund A Doesnt pay then Investment Bank A can shoot their interest rate from 4% to 40% in one day making the loan almost impossible to pay back causing the Hedge Fund to collapse and all the unsuspecting investors in the Hedge Fund are out of pocket.
Or my personal favorite. Lets Say Hedge Fund (HFA) A is going to short the RMBS market with a 10 Billion dollar Position for 3 days and Investment Bank A (IBA) wants to short the CMBS market with a $20 billion position for 5 days. well the trade between HFA and IBA happens 10 billion will float to HFA at a 4% interest rate per day for 3 days.
Now, IBA wants to short CMBSs they will approach Life Insurance Group A (LIA) and will offer $20 billion dollars in bonds 10 from their reserve and the 10 billion from HFA. at a 5% per day interest rate for 5 days.
Now, you might see the problem. but i will continue.
Day 3 is up. HFA made their little profit. IBA doesnt have their bonds (because theyre with LIA). So, IBA will probably give HFA 10 billion of their own bonds which for this post is what happens.
HFA is squared away with IBA.
Now, in the 5 days that IBA is holding LIAs money the fed decided to raise interest rates 200 base points. the bond market yields sky rocket causing their prices to plummet.
but fortunately IBA made 10% on their risk they pay LIA their 5% interest and take a 5% loss on their bonds and come out BE or Break even.
As you can see in this overly simplified example how if any one part of these parties failed it could be detrimental for a lot of people. Because peoples pensions are held by hedge funds, countries and other governments have their investments with the Investment Bank peoples money and loans are held with the Life Insurance groups.
I believe this shadow banking system is also the Stock Markets (yes the entire stock markets) Stop Loss!
Decisive Battle Fed Interest Rate ResolutionThere are still 2 hours before the announcement of the Fed's interest rate decision. At that time, it will guide the direction of gold in the short term, and all we have to do is seize the market trading opportunity. As long as we seize the opportunity, we will make a very good profit.Let's see if Gold will use this opportunity to challenge the 2050 position again.I will announce more detailed market information and trading opportunities in the channel.
Are you ready for the decisive battle over the Fed's interest rate decision?
XAUUSD:Short gold decisivelyGold currently continues to maintain a range fluctuation on the daily line, and the price is temporarily compressed between 1970-2010. In terms of the overall trend, the market is slightly restrained before facing important data such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and non-farm payrolls.Therefore, in the short-term structural trend, gold shuttles back and forth around 2000 points. In the near future, the watershed of long- and short-term strength and weakness will pay attention to the 2010 mark, and the daily line level will continue to be bearish below this position.
So wait patiently for a reliable position to participate in shorting gold.As for the specific location of participating in shorting gold, I will announce my trading signals on the channel as soon as possible when the opportunity is right. Please pay attention to the information in the channel.
First choose to short goldYesterday, stimulated by the news, gold rose sharply in the short term, reaching as high as near the first line of 2020. At present, gold has fallen slightly and is trading at the 2016 level.
Gold has shown serious technical deviations due to the stimulus of the news, and there is a technical response demand; and it is about to face the Fed's interest rate decision. In principle, gold has a certain volatility within a few days before the announcement of the interest rate decision. On the whole, due to the cautious attitude of the market, it is still necessary to maintain a state of range consolidation as a whole, so gold has a demand to fall after the news calms down.
So gold can consider choosing to sell on the first line of 2018-2010, TP1:2010, TP2:2006. For more high-quality trading signals, please refer to the content in the channel