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NIO - are the fundamentals good enough?Analysts have adjusted earnings estimates and thus, an earnings beat does not always translate to good prospects for some of the businesses: Earnings Estimate Management From the earnings forecast by Investing above, we can note the following: The coming EPS forecast (for the period ending 06/2023) is worse than the previous period ending 03/2023. In fact, the EPS forecast is expected to be the worst at record -2.96 since 06/2022. For the revenue forecast, it is expected to be lower than the previous quarter. It stands at 9.16B compared to the forecast of 11.93B from the previous quarter ending 03/2023. This is in fact the lowest revenue forecast since 06/2022. In the event that NIO beats both EPS & revenue forecast in the coming earnings, is the company doing better? In my opinion, it is a “NO”. Beating such an estimate is not something to brag about as the company remains unprofitable with “falling” sales. It can be too early to call this a falling trend but the quarterly signs are there. Conclusion Before we embrace any content from news agencies or investing portals, let us do our due diligence. One quarter does not define a trend and thus, looking at the business as a whole from afar can help to put some objectivity and remove the impact of seasonality. This will help to put things in a better context as we even out peaks from new launches and service offerings.
NYSE:NIOShort
by kyhbko
AFFIRM - is this still a good buy? CNBC has reported recently the surge of AFFIRM shares after better-than-expected results as per the screenshot above. AFFIRM (a buy now pay later business) has published some exciting highlights. Let us look at their GAAP and non-GAAP reconciliation in detail: AFFIRM makes a profit in the most recent quarter by using non-GAAP measurements. Using the whole year results ending 30 June 2023, total revenue is $1.587B and total operating costs are $2.788B, representing an operating loss of $1.2B. Yet through the lens of non-GAAP, the last quarter was profitable with $14.7M because non-GAAP does not include the costs of depreciation & amortization, stock-based compensation, enterprise warrant, restructuring and other costs. Going forward, I recommend all to focus more on the GAAP figures as that gives a better view of the financials. Creative accounting and business narratives can distract us from having a realistic view of the business. The need to probe further into the financials is necessary so that we can better appreciate the financial fundamentals of the business. After 1 year, AFFIRM suffered a loss of $1.2B, compared to the loss of $0.866B from the same period a year ago. Conclusion Let us perform the due diligence necessary so that we can filter out great companies. It is possible that some of the media focus on certain good parts and omit other “necessary” portions. No one should care more about our money than ourselves. The due diligence will be the leverage we have. Should the price plunge, this will give us the confidence to hold or buy even more. Without good fundamentals, I recommend staying away. NASDAQ:AFRM
NASDAQ:AFRMShort
by kyhbko
Can Vinfast make the cut?VinFast hit the news with a 700% stock value surge. VinFast became the world's 3rd most valuable automated after listing and what do we know about VinFast? (The financial information is taken from their SEC submissions.) From Income statement, I have a few observations (in USD$) for 3 months ending 31 March 2023: Total revenue is $65.11M. Note that there is a drop in revenue of almost 50% from the same quarter 1 year ago. Total Cost of Sales is $222M Gross loss is $161M The total loss for the period is $598M Thus, the company has yet to achieve break even. Coming to the balance sheet, here are the observations: Current liabilities ($3.5M) are much more than Current assets ($1.8M) - thus, raising some short-term liquidity concerns. The accumulated losses stand at $5.9M Total assets are valued at $5.08B but total liabilities stand at about $7.2B There is also an increase in the inventories on hand compared Q1 between 2022 and 2023. This is an item to look out for. It could turn into red flag if it is due to aged inventories that could not be sold. Coming to cash flow, here are some observations: There is a notable increase in cash flow used in operations amounting to $811M. CAPEX investment has increased and stands at $322M From financing, about $966M was borrowed to fund the business. This is a significant amount that we need to monitor - with huge amounts of interest being paid out. Conclusion It is too early to call this a success or failure. The business may not have reached critical mass and thus, there are many funds required for funding and expansion. I have concerns about the falling revenue and the failure to achieve profitability. This is just one aspect of looking at the financials. Let us also need to look into other qualitative and quantitative elements, to establish any competitive advantages. For now, it seems that VinFast is unlikely to achieve profitability soon but there is definitely potential, especially for EV. I prefer to monitor the business as a spectator and not be involved as (a customer or investor) for now. NASDAQ:VFS
NASDAQ:VFSShort
by kyhbko
Macro Economics- BRICS Oil Nations, GDPHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts 📈💰 The 15th BRICS summit was held in South Africa from August 22-24, 2023. There have been some important updates that concluded from this summit and if you're an active trader / speculator in the Forex, stocks or commodities market, you NEED to know about this. The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) now control 30% of the entire global economy. This is up from 17% in 2000 and 23% in 2010 . The BRICS countries are also home to 42% of the world's population. Incase you missed the previous article, find it here: BRICS Total GDP With New Members: B razil: $2.08 trillion R ussia: $2.06 trillion I ndia: $3.74 trillion C hina: $19.37 trillion S outh Africa: $399 billion Saudi Arabia: $1.06 trillion Argentina: $641 billion UAE: $499 billion Egypt: $387 billion Iran: $367 billion Ethiopia: $156 billion BRICS will now control 30% of the global economy. If you're invested in any BRICS related stocks or Forex markets, this concerns you! The summit outcomes are expected to lead to a weaker US dollar in the near term. This means that currencies against the dollar will strengthen. This is because the BRICS countries are collectively a major source of demand for commodities, such as oil and gold. The outcomes of this summit lead to proposed increased investment in the BRICS economies. This could lead to higher demand for commodities, which would put upward pressure on commodity prices and the value of currencies of commodity-exporting countries, such as the Brazilian real and the Russian ruble. This would make the US dollar less attractive to investors, which could lead to a weaker dollar. _______________________ 📢 Show us some LOVE 🧡 Follow for daily updates and trade ideas on Crypto , Stocks , Forex and Commodities 💎 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
Short
by CryptoCheck-
19
Mega Cap Stocks lower from here:Threw together some drawings on the MGK chart, but the same pattern can be seen on AMEX:SPY AMEX:VTI or other big indexes. I feel like the failure of NVDA to push higher on a very positive earnings report is sort of the canary in the coal mine here. Everyone knows about the inverted yield curve and how attractive interest rates are. Why Gamble on stocks at these valuations when you can earn nearly 5.5% on 1yr t-bills and 4.45% on 5yr Gov't Bonds? The green lines are not necessarily predictions, but rather lines connecting the current price to the expiry of the next 4 major option dates: Expiry Days to Expiry 9/15/2023 21 10/23/2023 59 1/19/2024 147 4/19/2024 238 Plan to layer in a few hedges & speculative bets on the way down, but just marking out my base-case which, let's be honest, is probably to the 4/19/24 date, however the Sep/Oct timeframe is interesting in the context of how major indexes perform during those months (historically speaking).
AMEX:MGKShort
by InfinitySL
The Most Important Chart In The WorldOne seemingly unassuming asset holds a tremendous sway over EVERYTHING: yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond. Often referred to as the "risk-free rate," as it rises, a domino effect is set in motion, triggering adjustments in mortgage rates, credit card interest rates, lending rates, and the valuation of growth stocks. That's why I'm saying this is the most important chart in the world. Study it. Chart it. Follow it. For homeowners and prospective buyers, changes in the 10-year Treasury yield can be the difference between an affordable mortgage and a substantial financial burden. This impacts millions of home buyers, banks, and middle parties that handle massive transactions. Credit card interest rates also dance to the tune of the 10-year Treasury yield. Many credit card issuers tie their interest rates to this benchmark, meaning that as the yield climbs, credit card APRs rise as well. This directly affects consumers, who find themselves paying more in interest on existing balances and new purchases. Ooooof! See why the 10-year yield matters so much? There's more... Lending rates, which influence the cost of borrowing for businesses and individuals alike, are tightly connected to the 10-year Treasury yield as. When the yield rises, banks adjust their prime lending rates upwards, making loans more expensive. This can lead to a slowdown in business expansion and capital expenditure as borrowing becomes less attractive. Growth stocks... shall we address the elephant in the room? As the yield on the 10-year Treasury rises, the opportunity cost of investing in riskier assets also rises. Investors may shift their focus towards safer assets like bonds due to the improved yield, causing growth stocks to lose their appeal. The valuation of growth stocks heavily relies on discounted cash flow models, which incorporate the risk-free rate as a discounting factor. A higher risk-free rate can lead to lower valuations, affecting investment decisions. In conclusion, add this asset to your watchlist.
TVC:TNX
by scheplick
6
Aftermath of interest rate hike of CBRT 🙃The question is... What have been changed in the Turkish economy? 🤔 1) Is the price of petrol will decrease in Turkey? The answer is; NO... 2) Is the price of electricity will decrease in Turkey? The answer is; NO... 3) Is the pricing in housing market will decrease in Turkey? The answer is; NO... 4) Is the pricing in automobile market will decrease in Turkey? The answer is; NO... 5) Is the pricing of other goods and services in the market will decrease in Turkey? The answer is; NO... So... Why usdtry is in the sharp fall? (Actually it's not in the sharp fall but they are presenting us as a sharp fall 😉) if this interest rate hike was real, all the prices in the market should started to decrease with respect to interest rate hike... We believe; it may be another form of fx manipulation...
Long
by Dr_Piyasa
3
NVDA Earnings Outlook:High Premium, Potential Post-Earnings DropNASDAQ:NVDA trades at a premium, with a P/E ratio of 277, towering over the sector median P/E of 25.56 and the S&P 500's P/E of 24.50. Its EV/EBIT is also remarkably high at 207.38 against the sector median of 19.45, signaling significant market sentiment. The options market's pricing in a potential $50 move,trading well above recommended levels 50-day EMA, suggesting that it might be overbought. While there may be a continued run-up leading to earnings, a post-earnings drop is anticipated. Target levels post-earnings could be $433, $419, and $400. Play the run-up but be cautious to sell the news.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Solidified
Estee Lauder ($NYSE:EL) touching key levels: time to buy?TLDR: Estee Lauder's recent price action at the historic monthly trend line and the $176 resistance level presents an intriguing trading opportunity. While considering the potential correction in the broader market, the stock's undervaluation based on fundamentals adds further appeal. As always, it is crucial to conduct thorough analysis, manage risk effectively, and remain adaptive to changing market conditions. By closely monitoring Estee Lauder's price action, traders may capitalize on a potential long opportunity. Introduction: In this trading idea, we will be focusing on Estee Lauder ( NYSE:EL ), a company that has recently touched a historic monthly trend line, coinciding with a significant resistance level at $176. With the broader market, represented by the S&P 500 (SPX), showing signs of a potential correction from its recent bullish run, we will explore the potential trading opportunity that Estee Lauder presents. Technical Analysis: Estee Lauder's price action has reached a critical juncture, with the stock touching a historic monthly trend line alongside the notable resistance level at $176. This convergence of key levels adds significance to the current price action and warrants close attention from traders. Market Context: Considering the broader market conditions, it appears that the SPX may be on the brink of a correction following its recent strong upward movement. This context should be taken into account when assessing the potential trade. Fundamental Analysis: Despite the uncertainty in the market, Estee Lauder shows promise from a fundamental perspective. The company is currently undervalued based on its fundamentals and growth projections. This suggests that there may be underlying strength in the stock, which could support a potential bounce. Trade Idea: Given the technical and fundamental factors discussed, it is prudent to closely monitor Estee Lauder for a potential long position. If the stock demonstrates resilience in the face of broader market headwinds and successfully breaks above the $176 resistance level, it could signal a strong bullish move. Risk Management: As with any trade, proper risk management is essential. Traders should consider setting a stop-loss order below key support levels to protect against downside risk. Additionally, monitoring market conditions, news events, and any significant developments within the company is crucial to assess the ongoing viability of the trade. Disclaimer: This trading idea is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Traders should conduct their own analysis and exercise due diligence before making any trading decisions. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
NYSE:ELLong
by arielfuggini
3
Guilty Pleasure Altcoins - Which are yours?Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉 I'm constantly on the lookout for projects with great potential. Microcaps often x10, x100 or even x1000 if you're lucky enough to catch them early AND take profits. However, today's post is something a little different. Let's talk guilty-pleasure coins and let's get real. Have you ever invested (or are currently invested) in a coin that is considered a "bad investment" by the community? If so, which coins and why did you decide to go for it regardless ? I'll go first... XRP 💰 I am still a hardcore believer in the fundamentals, even though I can't deny the evergrowing negative consensus and overwhelming bad rep that XRP gets from other analysts (often rightfully so). I've been a bag holder for many years, and my main reason is just sentimentality 😂 Now, VRAUSDT: The reason for using VRA/ Verasity for the cover is because I genuinely am undecided about this one. I'm not a big fan of coins who's decimals I can barely read so seeing a massive liquidity drain even before this microcap reached 0,09 isn't the best help for confidence in the project. However, the fundamentals seemed promising at the time. Incase you missed it: Verasity is a platform that aims to revolutionize the way that online video is viewed and monetized. It does this through a number of features including Proof of View (PoV), Engagement Rewards, VeraWallet, and VeraViews. PoV is a technology that uses blockchain to verify that users are actually watching videos, as opposed to simply clicking on them and then leaving. This helps to ensure that advertisers are only paying for genuine views. Engagement Rewards rewards users with VRA tokens for watching videos, engaging with ads, and participating in other activities on the Verasity platform. This helps to create a more engaged and interactive viewing experience. VeraWallet is a secure wallet that allows users to store their VRA tokens and participate in the Verasity ecosystem. VeraViews is a decentralized video sharing platform that uses the Verasity platform to verify views and reward users. All the above said, the fundamentals sounded great upon release. But obviously, something went wrong and I'll say this about it: The one thing I hate more than advertisements, is being forced to watch an ad. I've seen this new trend when I use apps on my phone that have ads. Suddenly, an annoying ad pops up. When trying to click the "X" or "Close" or "Skip" button, instead of actually taking me back to what I was doing (like very intensely playing solitaire) the click actually takes me to the site! Could it be that the reason for the project not taking off so well is more people like me just find it annoying and related scenarios? Especially if your reward for watching a 30sec ad is worth 0,004c... And so the question begs: Scam, guilty pleasure coin or worth-the-wait? _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
by CryptoCheck-
20
$GURE, a bizarrely cheap Net Net stock.Last quarterly report puts NASDAQ:GURE well within Net Net stock territory. Accordingly to the latest report, NASDAQ:GURE has $115.3M in cash and $18.1M in liabilities. Per share, intrinsic cash value is $9.34 per share vs today's price of $2.06. Even before factoring in current assets this stock meets the criteria of Benjamin Graham's Net Net stock status. Cash burn doesn't seem to be an issue neither does share dilution which surely makes NASDAQ:GURE a stock to watch...IF the numbers are to be believed?
NASDAQ:GURELong
by Bullish_On_Value
With the yield curve deeply inverted, what's the bull case?I recently published an idea where I laid out the bear case . But as I said in that post, although there are reasons for caution, I'm not really bearish on this market. In this post, I'll lay out why I do not believe now is the time to go full short. The bear case in review First, let's briefly review the bear case. First, the yield curve is deeply inverted. Historically, the time of greatest risk for stocks occurs as the curve uninverts. The market seems to expect the curve to uninvert over the next year. Second, energy prices and real weekly earnings have been climbing again, which suggests that inflation might not yet be dead. Third, there continue to be significant inflation risks connected to Russia, China, and the record temperatures and ice melt the world has seen this year. And fourth, global liquidity has been falling due to Central Bank balance sheet reduction and interest rate hikes. And on top of all that, stock market valuations are really quite high. S&P 500 P/E is over 25. If I were blindly trading a macroeconomic model, I would probably be all cash or even short the market here. So what could possibly be the bull case, then? 1. We may be on the cusp of the biggest productivity boom the world has ever seen There are several reasons I'm not a bear right now, but the big one is automation and AI. I know, I know; it feels like a bubble! It feels like hype! We get one of these every few years! We just went through one with crypto and NFTs! But listen, I don't do hype. Except the occasional opportunistic scalp, I never bought into the crypto craze. I've never owned Nvidia or Tesla stock. So take me seriously when I say that when Dall-E 2 came out, I immediately recognized this was a different kind of thing. And when ChatGPT came out, I switched careers to work with these tools. I use them every single day, and they have already at least doubled my productivity. In my opinion, the AI field could stop making breakthroughs today, and we'd still see huge productivity gains for the next decade just from adoption of the tools we already have. And the breakthroughs haven't stopped. If anything, they've accelerated. In my opinion, GPT-4 is already something very close to AGI. Its reasoning ability is astounding. Yes, you have to finesse the prompts a little to max out its reasoning ability. Yes, it hallucinates, and yes, OpenAI has nerfed it a little with all their context management and alignment work on the back end. Yes, it's hard to believe that reasoning ability emerges from next-word prediction. But the reasoning ability is undeniable when you see it solve novel problems before your eyes. As I've argued elsewhere, it appears that a "grammar of reasoning" is latent in the grammar of our language, and OpenAI has successfully created a statistical model of at least a portion of this grammar through matrix math. The "BabyAGI" and "AutoGPT" efforts to bootstrap AGI with GPT-4 as an "LLM core" have so far been (mostly) unsuccessful. GPT-4 isn't good enough to get there with this paradigm. But a whole lot of programmers (including me) are working on AI agents that use an alternative "code core" paradigm. And in my opinion, GPT-4 is already powerful enough to get to AGI with this paradigm. It's just a matter of years. My prediction is that we will see AGI this decade. Maybe sooner rather than later. Here's where I go out on a limb. I believe that we are on the cusp of the biggest productivity boom the world has ever seen. It's already started. In a quarter with very high interest rates, we just had a 3.7% productivity gain , smashing economists' expectations. I don't think this will be the technological "singularity" that Kurzweil predicted, with exponential acceleration into an incomprehensible future. I don't think it will put all of humanity out of work overnight. But it's going to big. And it might very well put me out of work overnight, because I am a pure knowledge worker. Let's just say I'm not worried that productivity gains will fall short of my expectations. I'm way more afraid that they will exceed them, and that I'll be out of a job. And if that happens, then the only saving grace will be if I own a piece of the companies and technologies that put me out of work. 2. We've probably already beaten inflation The rest of this post may be a bit of an anticlimax after that diatribe, but let's do it anyway. First of all, in my opinion, we've probably already beaten inflation. On an annualized basis, it's already back at the Fed's 2% target. Yes, energy prices are rising again. That remains a pretty significant inflation risk. And we could also see food prices go up. But we may be on the verge of reversing some other key inflationary trends. For one thing, the corollary of productivity gains is falling labor costs. With the higher-than-expected productivity gain last quarter, we had lower-than-expected unit labor costs (+1.6% vs. +2.5% forecast). This will be especially true for knowledge work. The cost of writing, marketing, and software services is going to plunge in the coming years. Service work and manual labor will become proportionally more valuable, so it's going to be a good decade to be a service worker. But with the labor force participation rate back to pre-pandemic levels, we're probably through the labor market crunch. Next, let's look at shelter. We've had a decade of NIMBY derangement in US housing policy, with hardly any new multifamily housing being built. But the YIMBY movement is starting to change things. Housing supply reform bills have been passed in quite a few US states, including some of the worst offenders like Washington and Colorado. These reforms are already paying dividends for US housing supply. There are almost a million new units of multifamily housing soon to come on the market, and over 500,000 new starts—the highest number since the 1980s. And with US population growth under 1%, there's not going to be a ton of new demand unless we loosen up immigration limits. (Admittedly, the declining marriage rate means you could see growth in the number of households even if there's no population growth, because you have to house more singles.) The payoff is that we should see real slowing or even reversal in inflation of shelter costs. And finally, let's also consider supply chains. 3. We're about to have a US manufacturing boom Another side-effect of AI (combined with dollar weakness and reshoring from China) is that the US is about to experience a manufacturing boom. The charts are genuinely incredible. Highest factory spending since 1981! How often do you see this kind of capital goods investment after huge interest rate hikes? Mind you, most of this is electronics manufacturing, with US companies betting big on chip and GPU demand from crypto and AI. 4. Leading economic indicators look good You probably don't want to bet against the US economy when the GDPNow forecast is at 4.1% and the ECRI Weekly Leading Index looks like this: 5. The credit and labor markets still look okay One reason we've so far avoided a recession despite rising interest rates is that both consumers and S&P 500 firms are in pretty good shape credit-wise. Consumers have relatively little credit card debt relative to their income: Plus, a whole lot of S&P 500 firms took advantage of low interest rates during the pandemic era to lock in a lot of debt at very low interest, so they're in no great immediate danger of having debt roll over at higher interest rates. Having said all that, my analysis of the credit situation could be wrong. Breakages in the financial system often come on unexpectedly. (I suspect, for instance, that consumer credit would look worse if you used the medians rather the means. I haven't done that analysis yet.) It's also significant that, for the moment, continuing jobless claims are trending down, so the labor market looks okay. More than any other indicator, this is the one I'm watching as a recession signal. In particular, if Chris Moody's Ultimate Moving Average-Multi-TimeFrame indicator goes green on the monthly chart, I will consider that a strong signal of recession risk. This has correctly flagged the onset of recession for all recessions since the 1960s, with only one false positive. For the moment, though, we're still okay. How to play it So, there are a number of good reasons to be bullish! But how do we play it? Chase the Nasdaq and buy a lot of megacap tech, right? Right? In my opinion, wrong. At 45 price-to-sales ratio for Nvidia, I'd say AI is already priced in for big tech. With all that semiconductor supply being built in the US, there's about to be a lot of competition in the sector anyway, so Nvidia might actually be a short. Besides, with AI, every company can afford to build proprietary software, so it erodes moats for all the big SaaS companies. Falling R&D costs will allow smaller firms to compete more effectively and build propreitary software. Every sector is the tech sector now. Wouldn't it be something if the biggest gains from AI came in sectors like utilities or food and beverages? I think that's the world we're headed towards. I think you buy the whole US market, and maybe the whole global market, and not just tech. For me, the most difficult thing is to know how much to include fixed income in the mix. Over 4% yield on a 30-year Treasury at a time when I suspect inflation's been beat? That's hard to resist. There may be a case for some kind of return stacking (i.e., leveraged Treasuries) ETF like NTSX. However, note that the Fed won't have a ton of reason to cut rates if growth is as strong as I think, so rates could very easily stay high. And with the yield curve inverted, leveraged strategies are expensive. Leverage costs are set by the short end of the yield curve, so if you leverage long-end Treasuries during a yield curve inversion then you're paying more for leverage than you're getting in yield. So I'm not sure what the right balance or the right use of leverage is, but I do think the traditional 60/40 allocation makes more sense now than it has in many years. This can help smooth out the volatility if we do see some of the recession warning signs play out.
SP:SPXLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
6