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Screen Setup for Fundamental AnalysisRecently I experimented with TradingView's "fundamental metrics" feature by mixing and matching up the financial information indicators. Finally, created a dedicated layout called "Fundamental analysis" and I like it a lot. Realizing that this feature is receiving less attention than it should be getting, I've decided to share my setup with everyone who's reading this to see. Setup : I've split my screen into two sides with (i) symbol, (ii) interval, and (iii) time all synced up. Left screen : Trend analysis on financial performance (the income statement) Right screen : Trend analysis on financial position (the balance sheet), along with changes in cash positions (statement statement of cash flows) They're all just high level breakdowns. We are not trying to come up with companies' intrinsic values by just staring at bundles of colorful rainbow lines. For each quadrant, I've placed the key Financial Statement Line Items (FSLIs), and key ratios (i.e. activity, liquidity, solvency, or profitability ratios) that are relevant to my decision making process. This is not a standard template because every value investor is different in terms of what they want to see at first sight when presented with companies' financial statements. TradingView had by default put labels with numbers on them, I removed all of those because I'm just interested in looking at the trends. If I need the exact information, I'll either dig up the SEC filings or go get copies of analysts' reports. But before ever doing that, I want to get a quick mental snapshot of the company's financials. Example : A quick walkthrough of TSLA (by just looking at the layout as shown in the example) over 5 years; As of latest quarter: (A) Financial performance wise: - EBIT and EBITDA had increased, all thanks to ramp up of revenue, and helped by decreasing of COS and OPEX. - as a common shareholder, it's great to see basic EPS increasing, but beware of dilutive effects (B) Financial position wise: - from perspective of a shareholder, it's great to see debt decreasing over time; shown by decreasing in net debt, corresponded by decreasing of D/E. - with increase in interest cover ratio, it tells that TSLA is starting to make enough money to have enough EBIT to cover their finance costs; good - overall liquidity wise, there had been decrease in quick ratio. This is explainable due to increase of inventory as shown by the gray line. This is okay, as long as inventory turnover is stable going forward (inventory activity ratios can be added if wanted, but I just plotted total inventory; normally I just want to know whether companies hold inventories or not). Advantage of this setup : - I can go through my TradingView watchlists and spend just 5 to 10 seconds on each company to get brief insights of their fundamentals. Disadvantage of this setup : - The scale is a problem. By default, they are auto-fitted. Due to nature of different FSLIs and ratios, you cannot resize them to obtain a meaningful universal scale. Be careful when deciding to work with comparatives with this setup. Example: if you look at basic and diluted EPS, it seems like the dilutive effect is immaterial because the lines are are stacked up. But if you look at the scales, they're completely different!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by DojiEmoji
2
Gold to 1958.60Gold is starting to seperate itself from equities ad it held strong while the Nas100 sold off today on 2/02/23. VERY strong imbalance to the upside and these gaps must be filled. 50% of the large imbalance also alligns perfectly with the 50% of the fib for a goldenzone retest before making it's way to the bullish candle liquidity grab at the top as indicated on the chart where the PDH is. I think Monday's high will act as support along with the golden zone PWH after a retest to futher fill the green FVG box and upper black box imbalance.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDLong
by CatchingPips-Official
On 1 Feb 2023 Indian FM Will Talk on Crypto Regulations.......On 1st Feb Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is going to announce budget of India. I am expecting that she will definitely talk about crypto regulations in India. As Wazirx is leading exchange in india right now, if something positive is for indian crypto community then WRX coin and other well reputed indian tokens will pump hard on tht day. So lets trade this upcoming new This trade is completely based on news, if something unfavorable news comes WRX will dump too...
Long
by Rohit_Shinde
Potential ZIM breakout trade setupHere's a trade setup I've been waiting for to get ripe for a while. ZIM: the dividend IPO pump n dump darling. It has some ridiculous fundamentals with currently a book/share of 48.4 and a cash/share of 26.12 along with a crazy 166% dividend: finviz.com It has been following this linear regression trend on the way down, just as well as on the way up. And now it is making a large wedge (orange) that looks to me like it is ready to breakout soon. We also got some positive divergence on the MACD and RSI. There's also a long-term resistance line developed on the RSI that I'm watching as potential resistance. One of the RSI lines will have to be broken in the coming months and I'd expect that'll be a big move in what ever direction that will be. Now as for bearish patterns, it is forming a pattern that looks like a bear flag (blue), so there is the risk of the flag being broken and it continues the trend lower. This one also likes to gap up and down, so there is the risk of stopping out lower than my stop. If it breaks out, I'm hoping for a rally to the low 20s and will exit there, as it will be hitting the top of the regression trend, increasing risk substantially. You can also see there are a lot of bag-holders at that price based on the Fixed Range Volume Profile so they will likely want to sell at those prices. My stop is quite loose at 15.78 since zim is a wild one, and if it's going to be an uptrend, I would not expect it to go much below the previous lows. If my target is reached, I'd then watch on the sidelines to see if it is primed to break out of the regression trend, creating an epic rally. The broader market conditions will have to be in a good situation next year for such an event to happen. I got a bit excited this morning and bought at 17.41, now it is an even lower price, closer to where I originally wanted to buy lol. But the risk-reward ratio I have for myself is 2.55, not too shabby! Note: I chart this with the chart adjusted for dividends because they make such a large impact on the chart and I've noticed that my old zim chart is now all messed up because of this, so the published chart appears to get less accurate as time goes on.
NYSE:ZIMLong
by Lynxys
3
Growth stock's hiatus ?Growth stocks outperform value stocks most of the time on a weekly chart of $VUG / $VTV, Vanguard's growth and value elf's respectively. Since the start of the 2022 bear market that relationship has reversed and, in August 2022, broke both horizontal support as well as a 14 year long diagonal support. These breakouts are being retested now, in January 2023. The outcome can impact both trading and long term investing strategy. For reference: $SPY in the bottom pane. Today's close: 400.35 Fib tool (not formal analysis)
AMEX:VUG
by gb50k
1
Perspective of SOL hodlThe last week was reach of occasions. Situation with FTX really scarad, and looks it will be bankrupt. The SOLANA is big ecosystem that hosts a lot of different projects. The death of SOL will kill each of them. That's why I trust in this token and it will not be equal 0. Market makers would like to make hodlers scary, and they have some sucess looking on chart. But from other side, they make a good price for enter. Sure it can go down till 10 USDT or less, but In case of longterm investments strategy, price will return back. Nice trades all!
Long
by JoFiBaTaL
4
Solar directionalsOrange directionals : Fast recovery to the upside, top out earlier than other possible directionals. The drawback is a risk of longer term decline. At the end, the challenge to the bottom middle blue line might occur here. Increased volatility is due to the distance between top and bottom. Blue directionals : Correction continues to the downside and bring solar stocks back into stable range. The drawback is a reduced ATR. The big positive will be that Solar stocks remains in range upwards that will grow for years. This will allow individual solar companies to compete on a level playing field. Yellow directionals : Solar companies have enough cash on hand and will put the capital to work. The expectation is to keep cost basis about 72.50 for the average investor in order to give investors a chance to reduce their cost basis by mid-summer, or hold the stocks. Caution : The arrows are approximately drawn for education/illustration purpose, and does not mean the prices will arrive at their ends precisely where they are drawn. All arrows may get to their targets early or break to the further upside, or decline to the downside extensively.
AMEX:TAN
by TrustThePhi
I'm still fascinated by the small cap crashI continue to be fascinated by the fact that small caps once retraced their entire post-Covid move. What I mean is, the Russell 2000, which is 2,000 companies that are identified as small cap stocks, had such a terrible year in 2022 that they went BELOW were they were before Covid was ever a thing. But why is this interesting? Because roughly $5 trillion was spent to stimulate the economy in various ways after the first Covid panic occurred. So let's quickly think about that: the Russell 2000 was, at one point lower last year than it was before an extra $5 trillion hit the economy. I continue to wonder what this means: did the market overreact? Is it stagflation? Did the recent rise in interest rates suck that $5 trillion back up? The money supply is shrinking again? There are tons of questions to consider and I also think it's important to wonder if this is still not the end. The following assets have still not yet retraced their covid highs: • Tech stocks and the Nasdaq 100 • The S&P 500 • The Housing Market • Inflation • Price of food • Price of average goods Keep in mind, several other assets have retraced and crashed quite hard including: • Vehicle sales and car prices • Crypto market • Treasuries/bonds So the question remains: is there more carnage ahead or will the market stabilize from here? The Fed does seem to be on a mission to crash food prices, inflation, and by extensions soaring housing. So one must wonder if the policy toward that eventually makes its way back into markets, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, or if indeed the worst is over and now we are plateauing. Part of me thinks its possible the Fed will get inflation under control while also preserving some of the market gains in tech, S&P 500, and more. Time will tell. So much more to think about.
Editors' picks
AMEX:IWM
by scheplick
13
Looking back at equity factors in Q4 with WisdomTreeAfter three negative quarters, 2022 closed with a bang. Equities around the world delivered very strong returns in both October and November on the back of relatively good news on the inflation front. Therefore, despite a negative December, developed market equities gained 9.8% in Q4, and emerging market equities gained 9.7%. This instalment of the WisdomTree Quarterly Equity Factor Review aims to shed some light on how equity factors behaved in this rebound and how this may have impacted investors’ portfolios. Overall factors performed strongly for Global and US investors. Only Growth delivered an underperformance in Q4. Value, High Dividend and High Quality dividend payers delivered the strongest performance in both regions. In Europe, Small Cap stocks performed the best, followed by Value and High Dividend stocks. In emerging markets, Value and High Quality dividend payers delivered the strongest outperformance. Looking forward to 2023, the same issues that drove markets in 2022 remain. While inflation has shown signs of easing, we expect central banks to remain hawkish around the globe as inflation is still very meaningfully above target. In an environment where interest rates and inflation remain high, and volatility of both equities and interest rates is increasing, we continue to tilt toward High Dividend, Value and High Quality dividend payers. Performance in focus: High Dividend and Value finish strong In the fourth quarter of 2022, equity markets posted their first positive quarter of the year across regions. In October and November, markets benefitted from positive inflation numbers and increased hopes for a Fed Pivot or at least a pause in rate hikes leading to a sharp rebound. MSCI World gained 7.2% and 7% in those two months, respectively. However, hopes of such a pivot were dashed quickly, with the Federal Reserve Chair making clear in the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that he wanted to see “substantially” more progress on inflation before the hiking would stop. This led the MSCI World to lose -4.3% in December. Overall, factors performed strongly for Global and US investors: Only Growth delivered an underperformance in Q4 in US and global equities Value, High Dividend and High Quality dividend payers delivered the best performance across regions but mostly in the US. In Europe, factors had a more difficult time. Small Cap stocks performed the best, followed by Value and High Dividend stocks but Quality, Momentum and Min Volatility delivered underperformance. In emerging markets, Value and High Quality dividend payers delivered the strongest outperformance. In this market, Quality, Momentum and Min Volatility also delivered underperformance. In Q4, the market environment continued to discriminate strongly between Quality stocks. The definition of Quality and the criteria used have hugely impacted the result. Quality, left unattended, tends to tilt toward growth (investors pay for Quality, after all) and would have suffered from that tilt, as illustrated with MSCI Quality (‘Quality’ in Figures 1 and 2). Highly profitable companies and dividend growers have fared better this quarter, as illustrated by WisdomTree Quality. 2022, the year of the dividends Looking back at the whole year, High Dividend has dominated the factor space consistently across the year. It delivered a 13.4% outperformance to the MSCI World and a 15.2% outperformance versus the MSCI USA. In Global equities, Value and Min Volatility completed the podium with 8.3% of outperformance. In the US, the podium is a bit different, with WisdomTree Quality (that is, High Quality dividend payers) finishing second (+11.4%) and Min Volatility and Value coming third and fourth. In both regions, Growth and Quality (with its growth tilt) were the only factors to deliver underperformance. In Europe, High Dividend and Value also dominated the field. Valuations rebounded in Q4 In Q4 2022, valuations rebounded across the board on the back of markets’ positive performance. Small Caps saw the largest increases with +1.7 in Global and European equities and +2.2 in US equities. European and Emerging markets remain quite cheap, leading to factors being cheap as well. Emerging market value is currently priced at a 4.9 P/E Ratio. Looking forward to 2023, recession risk is continuing to rise. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is warning of a recession in the US, a deep slowdown in Europe, and a drawn-out recession in the United Kingdom. While inflation has shown signs of easing, we expect central banks to remain hawkish around the globe as inflation is still very meaningfully above targets. The Federal Reserve made clear in its December meeting that ‘substantially’ more progress will need to happen on the inflation front before hiking stops. The European Central Bank (ECB) projections show inflation is unlikely to reach the 2% target until late 2025, leading to a hawkish turn there as well. The Bank of Japan also surprised markets in December with its own hawkish move. Overall, as we transition to 2023, three questions still remain unanswered from 2022: 1) how sticky will the underlying inflation be 2) how intense will the recession be 3) will we find a solution to Europe’s energy crisis? With markets facing the same issues in 2023 that they faced in the second half of 2022, we continue to tilt toward the strategies that delivered for investors in 2022, that is, High Dividend, Value and High Quality dividend payers. Please note: World is proxied by MSCI World net TR Index. US is proxied by MSCI USA net TR Index. Europe is proxied by MSCI Europe net TR Index. Emerging Markets is proxied by MSCI Emerging Markets net TR Index. Minimum volatility is proxied by the relevant MSCI Min Volatility net total return index. Quality is proxied by the relevant MSCI Quality net total return index. Momentum is proxied by the relevant MSCI Momentum net total return index. High Dividend is proxied by the relevant MSCI High Dividend net total return index. Size is proxied by the relevant MSCI Small Cap net total return index. Value is proxied by the relevant MSCI Enhanced Value net total return index. WisdomTree Quality is proxied by the relevant WisdomTree Quality Dividend Growth Index.
N
by aneekaguptaWTE
2
Yen's gains look cappedThe end of an era The global stock of bonds yielding sub-zero yields has been erased at the start of 2023, after peaking at US$18.4Trn in late 20201. The fight over inflation has caused central banks from the US, Europe, UK and across the world to exit their low to negative interest rate policy. Even the Bank of Japan – the world’s last dovish monetary authority- has left the sub-zero club and is inching towards normalisation. BOJ policy shift The Bank of Japan (BOJ) unexpectedly widened its target range for the 10-year Japanese Government Bond yields (JGB) from ±25Bps to ±50Bps at its December 20th meeting. Since then, the surge in 10-year JGB yields has caused a sharp rise of additional fixed rate and fixed amount purchases by the BOJ amounting to ¥17Trn. Market participants are speculating that BOJ will be forced to tighten policy even more in 2023. Political pressure alongside costly intervention forced the BOJ to tweak policy In 2022 – despite the BOJ keeping the Japanese 0–10-year curve fixed, sharply rising yields globally led the Yen to depreciate to a 24-year low, thereby stimulating Japanese net exports. This placed direct upward pressure on Japanese inflation via higher import prices. Japan was no longer able to sustain its yield curve control policy against a backdrop of ever-rising global yields because the interventions it needed to make in its government bond markets to defend the rise in JGB yields were becoming too costly. In addition, pressure from the Kishida administration due to concern about Yen’s depreciation pushing up prices and inflicting further damage on cabinet approval ratings. Yen gains look capped as policy framework likely to be maintained for longer The change in policy prompted the yen to appreciate to ¥130 versus the US dollar, a level last seen in early August. The Yen’s current rally marks a sharp turnaround from last year where investors were shorting the yen owing to the widening interest rate gap between the US and Japan. As illustrated below, an unwind -63%2 in net speculative short positioning helped drive the appreciation in the Yen towards the end of the year. If the BOJ were to make additional adjustments, it could spur further Yen appreciation. However, we feel the BOJ probably wants to keep its modified framework in place for a longer time frame, especially now that Yen versus USD stands at more comfortable levels. This was evident from its announcement of expansion of JGB purchases to ensure yields stay in the new range. Signs that current inflation isn’t sustainable The more concerning reason is wages are failing to keep up with inflation. In November, inflation adjusted pay slide 3.8% which was far worse than October’s 1.2% drop, marking the worst reading in 8 years3. 2023 wage growth depends largely on the results of annual spring negotiations between corporate management and labour unions. We expect bigger raises in base pay this year than in 2022, however its likely to keep up with inflation as the global economy slows. Japanese economy could avoid a recession in 2023 Japan’s inflation is likely to remain low in 2023, resulting in less need to tighten policy further. Japan is likely to avoid a recession in 2023. As it has yet to benefit from the re-opening trade that the Western economies have witnessed over the last two years. Consumption is likely to benefit from the economic re-opening and capex intentions are likely to rise on the back of pent-up demand for goods and services. While goods exports could soften due to the global economic slowdown, services exports are poised to steadily improve throughout the year, led by inbound spending following the lifting of border controls by the Japanese government in October 2022. The government also launched a new economic stimulus package in October to tame inflation and cushion the blow from rising raw material prices which should support the economic recovery in 2023. Factors underpinning the resilience in Japanese equity market performance In the face of the global equity market turmoil in 2022, Japanese equities4 performance has been fairly resilient (-11% versus -20%5 for global equities). Japan generates a large portion (nearly 52.7%6) of its revenues from global markets. So, a weaker Yen supported its profit outlook thereby making Japanese exporters more competitive than global peers. In 2022, a number of companies announced increased dividend pay-out ratios as well as share buybacks, with the intention of protecting shareholder returns amidst the global market volatility. Pay-out ratios rose to 63% from 40%7 at the start of 2022.
CME:6J1!
by aneekaguptaWTE