Get started

Value

USDJPY fundamental analystsince indonesia nickel export ban in 2019, japan automotive industrys already facing great pressure on their supply chain. after indonesia lossing nickel dispute on WTO, USDJPY seem going bearish as we can see on chart, but recently indonesian goverment announce bauxite export ban which seem drive bauxite price up. as we know japan top export product came from automative industrys, which bauxite are main material for automotive manufacturing. with post pandemic economic condition and material price. it seem difficult to maintain automotive export value at recent level
Long
by UnknownUnicorn6578325
2
BSX. Long. Live. Snake.Can this be called testing after the breakdown of descending channel? Probably. Long candle wicks can indicate about low asset liquidity, therefore slightly spoiling the overall picture. Based on the fact that we probably tested descending channel and showed the 6th largest green bar of the histogram, it can be argued that this is a good entry point, considering that RSI stand in oversold zone for some time. In the short term, there will be bullish news for BSX and its ecosystem. This is a public fact, not insider information. BSX, personally, is my choice for investment and I consider it extremely undervalued and promising. DYOR
KRAKEN:BSXUSD
by Tropnik
1
RMRK. Perfect accumulation zone!$2 - $1,32 is the best entry point for a set of positions. This could result in a 300% short term gain after a global trend change. We have also entered the oversold zone and, in my opinion, we will not stay in it for long, because weak hands are drying up, sentiment is changing, the land sale phase is almost over, and the date of metaverse launching into infinite online is approaching! Do not forget that RMRK is a metaverse currency, which will be needed like blood for the body + RMRK will be needed for NFT collections mint on Singular. Just look at utility and it will become clear to you that this is the best opportunity on the market right now! Toward the end of the decade, I expect a $1-2K per RMRK. Do not forget that RMRK is only on one major exchange - KuCoin. When the series of listings begins, it will be a golden time for RMRK and the price will never return to today's values.
R
by Tropnik
Stock-bond correlation and 60/40 portfolio are at crossroadsIn 2022 the diversification between stocks and bonds within a "60/40" portfolio was an ineffective strategy that yielded negative returns and, as a result, did not safeguard the investment. The reason was that both equities and bonds plummeted in lockstep as a result of the Federal Reserve's interest rate rises, with the correlation reaching its highest level in a decade. The blue area in chart above shows the 60-day rolling correlation coefficient between the S&P 500 index ( SPX ) and the Vanguard Total Bond Market ( BND ) ETF, which currently stands at 0.89. The positive stock-bond correlation had typically worked when the two assets climbed upward together in the post-GFC decade, but in this new environment, it did the opposite and for a longer time than in 2008 and 2020. Similar to 2008-2009, a 60/40 portfolio of global equities and bonds saw a maximum drawdown of 25% this year, but lasted more. The fall from peak to trough of the 60/40 portfolio lasted 252 days between June 2008 and March 2009, just 35 days between February and March 2020, and 336 days in 2022, making it the longest 60/40 bear market in the past two decades. 60/40 portfolio and its drawdowns – 60% Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF ( VTI ) & 40% Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF ( BND ) As we approach the final FOMC meeting of 2022, the future of bonds and stocks is at a crossroads, and a decoupling between the two assets may occur, making the 60/40 portfolio diversification plan more effective moving into 2023. If the Fed signals that the end of the hike cycle is nearing and adopts a more dovish stance on inflation, both stocks and bonds will benefit from here. If the Fed indicates that interest rates will continue to increase and that the window for a soft landing is narrowing, bonds will outperform stocks. However, equities will receive a boost when the recession comes and the Fed is pressured to cut interest rates. The downside risk of this approach is an excessive tightening of interest rates by the Fed, which might increase bond yields even more (and cause prices to drop) and further devalue equity markets, extending the bear market for the 60/40 portfolio.
SP:SPX
by Capitalcom
1
BTC Breaks Downward Resistance from ATHIf we view the all time chart on three separate time frames - Monthly, Daily, 4H, we can see that we have broken ATH all the way up to the 3D chart. Weekly and Monthly confirmations coming soon I suspect. To expect Bitcoin to drop further below from this channel into the "Birth Channel", we could see it in 13k's. This channel has only existed in a period once prior, however - before institutional capital started flowing into Bitcoin. To see BTC price go yet even lower than the "Birth Channel" is to expect Bitcoin to drop to a price channel where the only people using it were supernerds, stoners, and their dealers. You tell me if that is reasonable or not. In my humble opinion: bottom is in, yall. This is not financial advice.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by D4NKM4CH1N3
1
NZDUSD shortMore & more leveraged funds are moving their positions in order to short the NZD against the USD. We can see it with the COT and the flip made 4 weeks ago. Ok the nzd is rising and the usd is weak but what you need to understand is why leveraged are moving their funds ? Follow the smart people and not the gurus on instagram or whatever. If we summarize : -Big flip (negative to positive) 4 weeks ago with a big part of leveraged which are long on usd (against NZD). -We are reaching a big supply/demand area (close to 0.65) -The usd will be strong soon and you will understand why.... (The gurus will always talk about a pivot but where is it ? Is it for real or just an illusion ?). Oh and yes I forgot to say that we're already in RECESSION, stop listening to these lies !!!!! This is not a financial advice (or a price to enter) but a real analysis, you need to understand how hedge funds and professional are working.
Short
by Fantomeazote
XCH. The only way for chia - fork.Fork to move chia into a "community project". Fork that will completely REMOVE PREFARM. You will start with 1 block by mining the first XCH and start building. Also, advice for fanatical adherents led by "opinion leaders" communities. DO NOT AVERAGE THE PURCHASE PRICE. If you're willing to risk throwing your money into it, don't do it with a fanatical belief that it's a "second bitcoin". There were dozens of second bitcoins, now they are called ruined lives. XCH is a completely ordinary project, with a different form of mining - that's it. Do not build castles in the air - the fall can be too steep.
Short
by Tropnik
5
How to profit from Crude Oil - LONG (and short) The USA is in a political battle over the price of oil with OPEC and right now they are winning, but how low can they go? Not too much lower actually, they need to start buying again to ensure their strategic reserves remain useful and not at risk of dropping below the requried levels to support the country in times of emergency. OPEC $64 - To ensure OPEC break even on oil product, they will control the market above SPR $72 - To replenish the reserves the USA is a buyer at $67 - $72 a barrel, not too far from where we are now EU $70 - The EU are in talks to ensure Russian oil cannot be sold above $70 Pin Bar $77 - We have a bin bar rejection to support the market move North again Fib 78.6% - We've rejected this level 7 times on the weekly and daily chart Target 1 - We've already tested and profited from this move upto $82 and we'll be doing that again Target 2 - Fib 61.8% at 88 will be our next target Target 3 - Fib 50% at 92 will be our final target Short - If we break down past 77, we'll be a buyer just below at the SPR support levels.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDELong
by CBMotivation
2
BTC Under Pressure as Industry CracksHi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫 Today, a little bit more of a fundamental analysis than a technical analysis (apart from the line break candlestick analysis, which speaks for itself). Millions of retail investors and speculators have lost their savings in the resounding bankruptcies of crypto firms. Bitcoin faces heavy bearish pressure from sellers as the cryptocurrency industry continues to unravel at the seams. Even the SEC case against Ripple is back in the headlines again. Still, BTC continues to hold above the two-year support zone at $15,500 which it touch during the recent panic selling amid the collapse of crypto exchange FTX. In total, there have been 7 major bankruptcies since May. In all of them, customers and investors are unsure whether they'll get their money back. It all started May 9 when sister cryptocurrencies Luna and UST, or TerraUSD suddenly crashed, wiping out at least $55 billion . Luna, which was hyped by crypto evangelists, lost all current and future potential value. The rout caused a credit crunch that ended up taking out the hedge fund Three Arrows Capital, or 3AC, to which many crypto firms had entrusted their clients' money to invest. The impact on the industry was huge: Eminent crypto lenders like Celsius Network and Voyager had to file for bankruptcy due to their exposure to Luna and UST through 3AC. BlockFi, which was also affected, had to be bailed out by the FTX cryptocurrency exchange and its founder, Sam Bankman-Fried. Just over three months later, FTX and Alameda Research filed for bankruptcy. BlockFi has done the same, and there's no doubt that more crypto firms will shortly follow, since is it a tightly interconnected space. 💭 Nonetheless, it's important to note that the underlying technology of cryptocurrencies, blockchain, can still be of benefit outside the cryptocurrency market. If anything, blockchain could come out of the crypto winter even stronger. In an uncertain market, it's good to have some flexibility. That means having the ability to change positions in the market when conditions deem it necessary and not hold on to losing positions unless you're accumulating and playing long term. _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
Short
by CryptoCheck-
39
Equity outlook Restrictive policy and geopolitical risks raise the odds of a global recession What a difference a year makes. 2022 saw the ‘reopening’ of markets from the COVID pandemic evolve into a ‘recession’. Margaret Thatcher put it succinctly on 27 February 1981 – “The lesson is clear. Inflation devalues us all.” Monetary policy has been on the most pronounced tightening campaign in decades as inflation progressed from being transitory to potentially permanent due to the energy crisis. Politics is driving economics, not the other way around In the pre-war global economy, globalisation was an important source of low inflation. A large amount of global savings had nowhere to be deployed, rendering interest rates lower on a global basis. However, post-war, global defence spending has risen to a level not seen in decades as national security consumes government’s agendas. There will be vast opportunity costs involved, tied to the increase in world military spending. We expect the rate of globalisation to take a back seat, as Europe would never want to be as dependent on Russian energy as it is today. In a similar vein, the US does not want to fall privy to the same mistake Europe made and will aim to strengthen ties with Taiwan in order to ensure the smooth flow of chips. National security is inflationary We are in the midst of a war in Europe, owing to the brutal battle being waged by Russia in Ukraine. While the war is centred in Ukraine, the reality is we are all paying the price of this war by allowing it to continue. There is another war brewing in the background that we must not fail to ignore. The United States’ deepening ties with Taiwan is aggravating China. The Taiwan issue remains sticky. Taiwan’s role in the world economy largely existed below the radar, until it came to prominence as the semiconductor supply chain was impacted by disruptions to Taiwanese chip manufacturing. Companies in Taiwan were responsible for more than 60 percent of revenue generated by the world’s semiconductor contract manufacturers in 20201. Tensions between Taiwan and China could have a big impact on global semiconductor supply chains. The United States’ dependence on Taiwanese chip firms heightens its motivation to defend Taiwan from a Chinese attack. The desire for control of technologies, commodities, and straits is paving the way for economic wars ahead. China needs to get its house in order The economic headwinds that China faces are multifaceted. Unfortunately, policy easing from China in H1 2022 has been insufficient to arrest the extent of the slowdown. Of late, China’s State Council stepped up its economic stimulus further by announcing a 19-point stimulus package worth $146 billion (under 1% of GDP) to boost economic growth2. The property markets continue to deteriorate. The problem stems from a lack of financing among many developers that is needed for construction of their residential projects. All of this came about from the central government’s decision in 2020 to introduce the ‘three red lines’ policy to rein in excessive borrowing in the real estate sector. Vulnerable property developers are struggling to secure capital to sustain their businesses. Alongside, demand for housing has deteriorated due to intermittent COVID lockdowns, weakening economy, and doubts over developers’ ability to deliver completed housing units. However, the weakness in China’s economy extends beyond the property sector with rising unemployment and energy shortages. Chinese earnings growth since Q3 2019 has lagged the rest of the world. China has also suffered significant capital outflows, owing to its adherence to COVID-zero. This has set back its rebalancing towards a consumption-driven economy, rendering China to remain more addicted to export-led growth. However, export demand has begun to weaken as the rest of the world slows. US is in the early innings of a recession The US economy appears a safe haven amidst the ongoing energy crisis as it is less exposed to the vagaries of Russian oil supply. It also recovered faster from the pandemic compared to the rest of the world. The labour market remains strong as jobs continue to be added, wages accelerate, consumption has continued to grow (albeit more slowly), and unemployment remains at a five-decade low. Despite the recent upswing in GDP growth, caused by noise in the foreign trade numbers and technicalities in inventory data, the big picture of a slowing economy in the face of aggressive monetary tightening remains intact. There are mounting signs of slowing too, especially in the housing sector owing to the rapid rise in mortgage rates. Earnings in 2022 have reflected the challenging environment being faced by US corporates with earnings growth for companies grinding down to 3.17%3.The more value-oriented sectors such as energy, industrials, and materials continue to outperform. Looking ahead, earnings revision breadth for the S&P 500 Index are in deeply negative territory suggesting downside is coming from an earnings growth standpoint. Core inflationary pressures remain concerning, especially housing rents and medical inflation – components that are typically much stickier compared to goods and transport inflation. The stickier high services inflation reflects strong labour market dynamics as services are labour intensive and housed domestically. The Federal Reserve (Fed) appears unwilling to declare victory in its war against inflation. As we look ahead, it’s clear that the Fed’s role in quelling inflation without tipping the economy into recession will take centre stage. Harsh winter ahead for Europe Europe is heading for a recession in response to a strong external shock. Gas flows from Russia to Europe have declined substantially to 10% of their levels in 2021, causing gas prices to spike. The Russian war in Ukraine is showing no signs of abating, with Russia deciding on a partial mobilisation after a rather successful Ukrainian counter-offensive. These higher energy prices are squeezing real disposable income out of consumers and raising costs higher for corporates, causing further curtailment of output. The energy driven surge in headline inflation to 10.7% year on year4 has sent consumer confidence to a record low, leaving Europe in a bind. Fiscal policy in focus The European Union (EU) aims to define the direction and speed of Europe’s energy policy restructuring through REPowerEU strategy. However, crucial energy policy decisions have been taken by EU countries at national level. In an effort to shield European consumers from rising energy costs, EU governments have ear marked €573 billion, of which €264 billion has been set aside by Germany alone. In most European countries, both energy regulation and levies are set at the national level. The chart below illustrates the funding allocated by selected EU countries to shield households and firms from rising energy prices and their consequences on the cost of living. No pivot yet from the ECB We experienced a decade of almost no inflation and quantitative easing in Europe. We have now entered a phase in which the European Central Bank (ECB) has gone ahead with its third major policy rate5 increase in a row this year, thereby making substantial progress in withdrawing monetary policy accommodation. The ECB remains eager to have policy choices dominated by risks, rather than the base case, owing to which more rate hikes are coming. If Eurozone inflation continues surprising to the upside, the ECB will have to continue raising rates and determine when to activate the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) to support the periphery. We expect the ECB to take the deposit rate to 2.5% by March, as it continues to see risks to inflation tilted to the upside both in the short and long term. A tightening cycle into a slower-growth macro landscape has never been helpful for equities. European equities are faced with an extremely challenging backdrop ranging from high energy prices, growing cost pressures, negative earnings revisions estimates, and cooling growth. Amid the sell-off in equity markets in the first half of this year, European equities currently trade at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.3x, marking the steepest discount versus its long-term average of 21x compared to other major markets. The risk of a recession to a certain degree is being priced into European equity markets. Conclusion In our view, the global economy is projected to avoid a full-blown downturn; however, we expect to see a series of individual country recessions take shape at different points in time. Evident from recent data, the downturn in the US is expected in the second half of 2023 whilst the Eurozone and United Kingdom will enter a recession by Q4 this year. Contrary to the rest of the world’s key central banks, China and Japan are expected to keep monetary policy accommodative which should help buffer some of the slowdown. Given the highly uncertain environment, investors may look to consider US and Chinese equities, whilst potentially reducing weighting towards European equities. Across factors, we continue to tilt to the value, dividend, and quality factors given the expectations for weak economic growth, higher rates, and elevated inflation.
ICEUS:MWL1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
During high inflation focus on high pricing power equities2022 continues to prove difficult for investors around the globe. The conjunction of heightened geopolitical risks, increasingly hawkish central banks, and runaway inflation has forced many investors to change tack and modify their asset allocation significantly over the last 12 months. Duration has been lowered across asset classes, and a survey we commissioned1 recently revealed that 77% of European professional investors use equities to hedge against inflation. Fighting inflation by wielding Pricing Power Not all equity investments are equal in the face of inflation. The key differentiator is their ‘Pricing Power’. Pricing Power describes the ability of a company to increase its price without impacting demand or losing market share to competitors. In an inflationary environment, margins are under pressure because companies ‘import’ inflation, whether they want it or not. Overall costs for the companies increase through labour, supply, or energy. The only tool to mitigate the impact of inflation on margin is to increase prices. Companies with Pricing Power will be able to do so the most efficiently. Certain types of companies tend to have higher Pricing Power: Companies that deliver essential services tend to wield a lot of Pricing Power as they have somewhat captive clients. This is the case for many companies in the Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Utility, or Energy sectors. Companies that deliver high-quality products or services and possess a distinct competitive advantage can also increase prices efficiently. Luxury goods companies benefit from their clientele's relatively low price sensitivity. Some companies can benefit from favourable supply-demand dynamics at a particular point in time. This is, for example, the case of semiconductors in 2021 or energy companies this year. History is the best guide to the future As is our habit when trying to assess the future, we turn to the past for guidance. The below graph focuses on US-listed stocks since the 1960s. It assesses the average outperformance or underperformance of different groupings of stocks, since the 1960s, when inflation is higher than the last five-year average. We observe that, on average: High Quality stocks weathered inflation better than Low Quality stocks Value stocks beat Growth stocks High Dividend stocks outperformed Low Dividend stocks Small Cap and Low Volatility did better than Large Cap or High Volatility companies Overall, High Quality, High Dividend and cheap stocks appeared to fare better in high inflation environments. The same analysis on sectors shows that Value-orientated, High Dividend sectors also tend to do better against inflation. Energy, Healthcare, Consumer Non-Durables (Food, Tobacco, Textiles), and Utilities exhibit the strongest average outperformance during high inflation. It is clear here that the quantitative data aligns with our qualitative assessment. The factors and sectors that historically outperformed when inflation was high are those that have the greatest chance to harbour high Pricing Power companies. This should give investors indications on how they could tilt their portfolio to fight inflation. Quality and Dividend Growth to fight inflation In light of the unique challenges equity investors face, High Quality companies focusing on Dividend Growth could help strengthen portfolios. High Quality companies exhibit an 'all-weather' behaviour that tends to deliver a balance between building wealth over the long term whilst protecting the portfolio during economic downturns. Dividend-paying, highly profitable companies tend to: Exhibit higher pricing power allowing them to defend their margins by passing cost inflation to their customer. Exhibit lower implied duration, protecting them in a rate-tightening environment, thanks to a focus on short-term cash flows. Provide a defensive tilt and an enhanced capacity to weather uncertainty.
N
by aneekaguptaWTE
Endgame for central banks far from doneThis week the UK economy posted its highest inflation reading in 41 years rising 11.1% year on year (yoy) in October. The recent jump is largely the result of the uprating of the household energy price cap in October. Core inflation moved sideways at 6.5% yoy. We expect this to represent the peak for UK inflation. As the base effects of high energy prices begin to factor in, headline inflation in the UK is likely to fall. At the same time, the ongoing recession is likely to strip away the underlying price pressures. This has been evident in lacklustre consumer demand alongside waning housing market activity. UK Government claws back its credibility with the Autumn Statement Meanwhile the UK Government’s fiscal statement released this week1, confirmed significant fiscal austerity with spending cuts and widening of the tax base amounting to around 2% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) after five years, although its mainly backloaded. The energy price guarantee will now have its cap for average household dual tariff annual bill lifted from £2500 to £3000 from April 2023 and remain in place for a further 12 moths. This is less generous than the original plan to cap bills at £2500 for two years. The Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) analysis suggests that the measures announced in the Autumn statement reduce the depth and length of the recession this year and next but leave the economy on a similar growth trajectory over the medium term. We expect real GDP to contract by 1.3% next year followed by growth of 2% in 2024. With this is mind, we expect the Bank of England (BOE) to pause its tightening cycle once rates get to 3.5% in December followed by 50Bps of cuts in H2 2023. Eurozone to endure a short recession Owing to the external supply shock, Eurozone has faced a similar inflation narrative as the UK. In October Eurozone inflation reached 10.6% yoy. We expect inflation to remain high in the next few months, however starting early next year, the annual rates should decline aided by the base effects from the surge in energy prices in 2022. Owing to which we expect European Central Bank to continue to tighten monetary policy until Q1 2023. On the positive side, while Eurozone will endure a recession in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023, we expect the recession to be less deep than previously expected owing to the less dire gas situation. This was evident in the November ZEW survey, which showed expectations gauge for the economy in the six months ahead improve significantly to -38.7 in November from -59.2 in October. This remains in line with our view that in six months’ time the Eurozone economy should be on its way out of a recession. Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers singing from the same hymn book Fed officials backed expectations they will moderate interest-rate increases to 50 basis points next month, while stressing the need to keep hiking into 2023. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said policy makers should increase interest rates to at least 5% to 5.25% to curb inflation. He also warned of further financial stress ahead. Bullard’s comments came a day after San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said a pause in rate hikes was “off the table.” Fed Governor Waller (one of the more hawkish Fed officials) emphasized that while rate hikes will likely slow to 50bp in December, the ultimate destination or “cruising altitude” will depend on labour market and inflation data. Waller echoed Atlanta Fed President Bostic’s concerns about labour costs pushing up service sector prices which in our view remains the key upside risk to inflation even as core goods prices have slowed. Fears are mounting that relentless rates increases will hit economic growth, with a critical segment of the Treasury yield curve at the most steeply inverted in four decades, historically such an inversion has tied in with a US recession. Maintaining a value bias within equities Amidst the challenging backdrop for global equities, we have observed the value factor outperforming the growth factor by 17.3%2 in 2022. Across global markets, European equities are trading at the deepest discount (32%) from price to earnings (p/e) ratio to their 15-year average owing to fears of the energy crisis being detrimental to the economy. The recent 3Q 2022 earnings season provided evidence that European earnings have remained stubbornly resilient despite the broader macro turmoil. A deeper dive into the sector level suggest that energy, transport, utilities and healthcare have seen some of the biggest increases to their Earnings Per Share (EPS) estimates in 2022. The WisdomTree Europe Equity Income Index outperformed the MSCI Europe Index in 2022. The performance attribution highlighted below illustrates that the higher exposure to value sectors such as materials, financials, healthcare, industrials, and energy contributed to the outperformance.
FRED:T5YIE
by aneekaguptaWTE
1