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How Sam Bankman got Fried Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📈📉 Losing $22 Billion in one day is probably a record for the books. Let's take a closer look at the Sam Bankman-Fried story... At 30, SBF is(was) the youngest billionaire in the US. In 5 years, he managed to start the fastest growing DEX (FTX), as well as Alameda Research. He is also well connected. VERY well connected, with political ties to big names such as actors including Tom Brady, Naomi Osaka and financial institutions including Coinbase Ventures and Binance Labs. So how is it then that he got burnt and lost it all overnight? Let's take a closer look at the intricacies. First, let's take a closer look at just how big and interconnected FTX really was: 💰 44 Active investors deposit $1.8 Billion in just a year 💰 Celeb Ambassadors including actors such as Stephen Curry, Tom Brady and Naomi Osaka ...hopefully we've learnt our lesson about trusting actors on crypto with Matt Damon on BTC and Ashton Kutcher with his XRP endorsement right before major crashes.... no? 💰 FTX has a combined value of $40 Billion in 2022 💰 FTX sponsors Mercedes in F1 💰 FTX sponsors Major League Baseball, FTX printed on all shirts (guess who's getting a new wardrobe...) 💰 Fortune Magazine Face - "Next Warren Buffet" After the SEC forced shutdown in 2018 of crypto exchange broker 1Broker, many crypto moguls decided to take their companies elsewhere. This is also true for Sam, who decided to open FTX in Hong Kong later moving to Bahamas, away from the restrictions and regulations of the US. Binance followed a similar path, later moving it's company from China to Cayman Islands. SBF continues to keep favor with the US as he makes large contributions to Joe Biden's campaign, over $11 million. He reportedly spent over $47 million supporting democratic political campaigns. SBF networking progresses and he often testified to congress about how crypto regulations should proceed, even though he moves his business to the Bahamas (not the US). He positions himself as the voice of reasoning for the future of crypto regulations. During 2021, SBF reaches the peak of his wealth and fame. He nd 9 other youngsters are leading the FTX empire from the penthouse in the Bahamas. Some say he became overconfident, others say he was sloppy. It seems as though the start of his downfall was due to Rival, CZ from Binance. Back in 2019, CZ hinted on Twitter that SBF was involved in an attempted attack on Binance futures platform. CZ later drives down the price of FTT by publicly stating their exit from FTX after "certain revelations came to light". SBF responds with a tweet "you won, well played". When the bear market arrives late 2021, SBF is portrayed as a saint as he "invests hundreds of millions" in companies such as BlockFi, Voyager and Celcius whilst they face liquidity problems. A research report from September 2022, reveals a different story. He, infact, invest miniscule amounts or even nothing at all to help these companies! But this article does not make headlines, yet. Then a whistle blower breaks the news - Alameda Research uses $10 billion of customers FTX funds to make a risky investment, which is totally illegal. This is the complete opposite of the terms and conditions on his website as well as the opposite of what he said to Congress during his talks about how regulations should be. This is where the saying "not your keys, not your crytpo" shines. Crypto users and SBF fans are heart broken... How could he?? The final blow: Recently, continuous rivalry on crypto twitter between CZ and SBF fuels the price drops on FTT as CZ claims to sell all remaining tokens. Alameda Research (one of the 9) jumps in and claims to "buy back" whatever CZ has left to sell. But then, another stroke of bad luck - the balance sheets of Alameda Research leaks. As it turns out, they have NO liquidity, especially not enough to make any FTX buyback. And so, overnight, the price drops a whopping 89% and there goes most of SBF's wealth. Final Thoughts... If you're smart enough, have the right support structures and a great PR team, you can grow your fortune with fake virtue signaling. Infact, many philanthropes ( unlike Jeff Bezos 's ex wife whom you probably don't even know about ) will only donate when the camera's are on. They also ensure that they are highlighted as kind hearted saints by the media. They do whatever it takes to hide all the corruption and money laundering behind the scenes. SBF was portrayed as the humble, young billionaire face op crypto, and everyone wanted him in their corner due to his trading brilliance and profitable partnerships. Sometimes, however, when the bad deeds start outweighing the good ones exponentially, it becomes increasingly hard to hide the true events from the public .It has, somehow, come to light that instead of being a humble and charitable public servant, SBF was the leader of a group of kids living the highlife in a penthouse in the Bahamas. Misusing funds for corruption and illegal activities including but not limited to money laundering. And so came the fall of Sam Bankman Fried. His downfall involves deception, illegal activities, large political contributions and the misuse of customer funds. It is noteworthy that most of his wealth was in FTT, native crypto to FTX decentralized exchange (DEX) . 💭...This is no uncommon thing. Many people do the same illegal stuff, probably even on a larger scale but somehow, SBF got burnt. You can't help but wonder... Who Fried Sam Bankman ? _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
FShort
by CryptoCheck-
127
Graphical and Fundamental Analysis of Riot Blockchain (RIOT)1. Graphic Analysis The price has broken a diagonal support at the white line. If going to bet on a rise, I would expect a bear trap at $4. If the downtrend continues, the next targets will be hit on the Fibonacci projection. $1.30 would be the longer target. The indicator at the bottom demonstrates the correlation with the price of Bitcoin, which is positive. The macro scenario remains bad, largely due to the FTX crash. The quarterly results presented by blockchain and mining companies are being released, and by the way, they are not good. The question is: if the next results are not positive or if more companies fail, to what extent this would affect Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. 2. Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:RIOT
by andre_007
Graphic and fundamental analysis of Marathon (MARA)1. Graphical Analysis Since the all-time high, the price has dropped 99% on March 16, 2020 in the pandemic crisis. It then rose 23000% reaching the peak on November 15, 2021, exactly one year ago. However, it was insufficient to recover the historic maximum. It is now in a definition region. It needs to break the psychological resistance of $10 and after $20 to re-up in a macro trend. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1. Earns per Share "EPS stands for earnings per share. Investors use EPS to measure how much money a company makes for every outstanding share the company has. Diluted EPS is slightly different in that it measures the earnings per share for a company if all convertible securities (such as preferred stocks, convertible debt instruments, stock options and warrants) were used to calculate the metric. Diluted earnings per share provides a picture of the true shareholder base and how the company's earnings are distributed. Diluted EPS is an important metric for shareholders because it determines the profit shareholders will receive in a scenario that includes all securities from preferred stocks to stock options and warrants." The fundamental indicator remains stable below zero, only reiterating the absence of profit most of the time. 2.2. Net Income "Net Income shows how much money a company earns after expenses. Net Income represents the amount of money a company earns after all operating expenses, interest, taxes and dividends on preferred shares have been paid for. If Net Income is negative, it means that a company spent more money than it earned In other words, they lost money. Net income shows investors if a company is profitable or not. When a company can earn more money than it spends, it’s net income is positive. These profits can potentially be distributed to shareholders through dividends, buybacks, or investment back into the company. However, it's important to remember that companies use different methods to determine Net Income depending on their location and earnings report." The good news is that the damage is reduced. 2.3. Net Debt "Net Debt represents the amount of debt that would remain after a company had paid off as much debt as possible with its liquid assets. This financial metric shows how well the company can handle its current obligations and if it has the ability to take on more debt in the future. Net Debt can be calculated as Total Debt minus Cash & Short Term Investments". The remaining debt got worse. 2.4. Free Cash Flow "Free Cash Flow (FCF) represents the cash that a company generates as a result of its activities, excluding on expenses assets. Free Cash Flow is sometimes considered the hardest financial metric to fake because of its calculation and for that reason, it's a popular financial metric in the investor community. Free Cash Flow signals a company's ability to pay debts and dividends, repurchase shares and contribute to business growth." The value fluctuated from 20 million to 2 million, but at least it remains positive. 2.5. Total Equity "Total Equity is what's left after subtracting total liabilities from total assets. It represents the amount that belongs to the joint-stock company. It includes Shareholders' Equity and Minority Interest. Total Equity is important because it represents the value of the investor's share in the securities or company. Investors who own shares in a company are usually interested in the equity of the company represented by their shares." The value did not undergo a small downward swing. 2.6. P/E Ratio "The Price to earnings ratio measures the market price of a stock relative to its earnings per share. This metric shows how much profits are willing to pay for the company the company generates. A high price to earnings ratio and a low price to earnings ratio can mean different things. Some investors believe that a high price to earnings ratio means a company is becoming expensive and possibly overvalued. A low price to earnings ratio may mean that a company is undervalued or cheap. Of course, this is not always true as sometimes a company has a high price to earnings ratio because it is growing fast and expected to grow into its high price to earnings ratio." The value did not suffer major fluctuations. It remains stable below zero, reflecting the absence of profit. 2.7. P/CF Ratio "Price to operating cash flow is the ratio of the share price to operating cash flow. Essentially, Price to operating cash flow measures how much money a company generates relative to its share price. Price to cash flow is considered to be a more indicative investment measurement metric than Price to earnings per share because cash flows cannot be manipulated as easily as incomes. Some companies seem unprofitable due to large non-cash expenses, even if they have positive cash flows." The value has remained relatively stable and positive since March 2021.
NASDAQ:MARA
by andre_007
MicroStrategy Graph and Fundamental Analysis (MSTR)1. Graphic Analysis Since March 2020, the company has been showing a strong correlation with Bitcoin (as shown at the bottom). The price is "respecting" the white diagonal line in a big triangle 3 times. It remains to be seen whether this line will be restored or whether it will now take off for good. Perhaps the fundamentalist analysis below indicates a subtle change in operating results, to the point of enacting the bottom of this cycle. 2. Fundamental Analysis The result was announced on November 1st. 2.1. Income Statement 2.1.1. Revenues Sales increased by 2.69%, going from $122M to $125M. 2.1.2. Expenses Operating expenses have been flat since inception, ranging quarterly from $111 million to $122 million. 2.1.3. Net Income Net Income shows how much money a company earns after expenses. Since the year 2020, net income has had a negative performance. Despite sales increasing by 2.69%, this has not changed. The positive point is that in relation to the previous quarter, the negative profit deteriorated, going from -$ 1.06 Billion to -$ 27.08 M 2.1.4. Earnings Per Share (EPS) Earnings per Share is the amount of earnings per share of issued, ordinary shares. Analyzing since the 1st quarter of 2021, this indicator has remained negative, signaling that those who bought the company's shares suffered a loss, in line with Net Income . ------------------------------------------------------------ 2.2. Balance Sheet 2.2.1. Asset x Liability 2.2.2. Total Assets The total value of assets decreased by 2.13%, due to a reduction in current and non-current assets. 2.2.3. Total Debt Debts remain stable, in the range of $2.24 billion to $2.45 billion. 2.2.4. Net Debt Net Debt represents the amount of debt that would remain after a company had paid off as much debt as possible with its liquid assets. This value also remains stable. 2.2.5. Net worth It is what's left after subtracting total liabilities from total assets. Equity was positive until the first quarter of 2022. But in the last two quarters it was negative by -$200 million. ------------------------------------------------------------ 2.3. Cash flow 2.3.1. Cash From Operating Activities Cash From Operating Activities represents the amount of cash that a company gets from its ongoing, regular business activities, such as the production and sale of goods or the provision of services to its customers. Considering the period since 2021, Q2 2022 (the previous one) was the one in which there was a negative flow of -$18.37M. In the current quarter, positively, this negative flow has stopped, standing at $1.10 M. But still far from the last positive value of the first quarter of 2022 which was $ 46 M. 2.3.2. Cash From Investing Activities Cash From Investing Activities represents the amount of cash that a company brings in from its investing activities. It includes any cash inflows or outflows from the company's long-term investments. A negative value of Cash From Investing Activities can show poor performance, but it can also be a sign of increased investment activities. Spending on investments has been declining. From a peak of -$1B in Q1 2021, in the current quarter of 2022(3) the amount spent was -$6M. This signals a trend towards the end of investment activities. It may be due to the higher cost of money, and/or the lack of need for such an investment. 2.3.3. Cash From Financing Activities Cash From Financing Activities is the amount of cash that a company receives or pays to finance its activities. That is, the company invests this money in itself, specifically in the development of its business. A positive value may indicate an organization's intentions regarding expansion and growth. A negative value may be a sign of improvement in the company's liquidity if debts are paid off. A negative value can also provide information on the dividend policy of the organization. In the same way as investment activities, the value follows a downward trend, that is, the company continues to prioritize the consolidation of its activities, or prioritizing the settlement of its debts. 2.3.4. Free Cash Flow Free Cash Flow (FCF) represents the cash that a company generates as a result of its activities, excluding expenses on assets. Free Cash Flow is sometimes considered the hardest financial metric to fake because of its calculation and for that reason, it's a popular financial metric in the investor community. The current value remains positive at $769k, but far from the peak of $64M in Q1 2021. Last quarter the balance was negative at -$19M, so we could at least consider this reversal as something positive. 2.3.5. Price to cash flow Ratio It measures how much cash a company generates relative to its share price. Formula: Market Value/Cash Flow from main activities The indicator remains positive and peaked at 69.46 in this current quarter.
NASDAQ:MSTR
by andre_007
ENPH - Big play potential here! Massive Double TopEnphase Energy, leader in Solar & Green Energy Sector. Enphase has recently seen parabolic performance skyrocketing the stock to All Time Highs. While the stock is testing all time highs, it is still very overvalued with a P/e of 150. The bear market has not taken its toll on Enphase yet, while it has been rising in this clear rising wedge. What I see: - A clear Double Top being Printed in Large Supply Zone - Rising Wedge - Overvalued - Hasn’t got Bear market hit yet Risks : Earnings Growth Market Meltup rally Break above zone from possible cup & handle formation.
NASDAQ:ENPHShort
by ZachSap
8
Coinbase graphical and fundamental analysis (COIN)1. Graphical Analysis Since listing on the stock exchange, the stock has had a maximum depreciation of 90%, reached on May 12, 2022. If the downtrend continues, the $40 support will be retested and in the worst case the price will reach $30 given the Fibonacci predictions. To reverse this bearish bias, the price needs to break through the resistance ranging from the $58 to $68 region. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Earnings per Share - Net income - Free cash flow These indicators appear to reverse a downtrend. But given the dire scenario created by the fall of FTX, it may be too early to say that. - Net worth There were no big swings. - Price to Earns Ratio - Price to Cash Flow Ratio From July 2022 until now, there has been an inability to generate a profit. Ditto for the previous comment, apparently it is reversing a downtrend. Opportunity? I don't know... I won't know for sure until the indicator crosses the zero line and the company actually makes a profit. --- Speaking of the crypto market, it is also important to analyze the results of other companies in the cryptocurrency and blockchain sector, which are also publishing their results. They are companies like Marathon, Riot, Hut, Core, Nile, among others. By the way, the results that have come out so far don't look good.
NASDAQ:COIN
by andre_007
BoredCoin | BTC Yaawwwnnnnnn . . .One of the characteristics of a bear market is complacency, lack of interest and downright boredom. The lack of volatility really drives people away especially those looking at other more exciting prospects. There are TONS of interesting projects in the crypto space and Bitty is just not that fun to play with right now unless you use massive leverage on really short moves but that can rekt you quick. For every one else . . yawn. Rule of thumb in any market is that Bear duration is typically 2X bull duration and according to Glassnode, despite some unique analytic characteristics and looking at realized price and long term HODLER convictions, we're comparatively only about 1/2 way through when looking at previous bear cycles. Honestly, I don't see how we don't get at least one more drop to 16k-ish if this current doldrum isn't just some kind of stabilized distribution. Dunno for sure but I def wouldn't put all of my eggs into the BTC basket here. DCA is the way friends. Good luck and as always, not investment advice. ~Box
by FudBox
6
This could be the end for FB META, loss of confidencefacebook meta could go belly up from overspending and a complete business failure from lack of confidence from investors and business partners Meta could recover between 40 and 70. The forcast right now does not look good for Facebook META This could be the end of this company after having historical losses in a short amount of time. I personnally will never put money into this company again. I made alot "ALOT $$$$$$$.$$ " of return from this company while the bulls were running. I highly doubt the bulls will be coming back in full swing for META without some serious confidence for future plans. I posted on another account in september 2021 that facebook was going to lose 80% of its value in 2022. I also posted april 28, 2022 on this account that facebook META would crash down below 100.00 in 2022. I also posted in september 2021 about amazon crashing in 2022 I posted again on april 23 that amazon was crashing april 28th 2022. i told the truth way before any of this happened and i lost my old accounts for knowing what was about to happen this year. I knew it was time to sell in 2021 before the crash and i was blocked from every site i posted and had to start over with new accounts. You know your right when they start blocking freedom of speech and posting the correct information. I sold all my stocks before the crash. Sold all my bitcoin ethereum and all crypto holdings at the peak of 2021.
NASDAQ:METAShort
by UnknownUnicorn35774657
2
Watching EURUSD After a Historic CrashThe EURUSD is down 13 of the last 15 months. That is red after red after red. The bearish sentiment is about as extreme as I can remember, ever, for any currency. I usually do not trade FX and I should be clear, I do not have a position in the Euro at this moment. But I do want to write about a few things that have caught my attention. Foremost, I think it is pretty interesting that the EURUSD is not only at parity, but also slightly below parity. This makes capital flows rather easy, if not effortless for Americans to invest in Europe or want to get involved in Europe. It also makes exports more competitive for Europe to other countries. There is a point where these levels just do not make sense from a broad, macro standpoint. The strength of the Dollar makes investment into Europe that much more attractive. If you have dollars, you can now afford more. I would add that there are 764 million people in Europe, with many of the greatest cities on Earth. Actually, that is something that I do find interesting. I follow many smart investors/traders on social media. The majority of them are extremely bearish on Europe and the Euro. I have seen it all from them - social disparity! energy crisis! bad leadership! And the list goes on. HOWEVER, when I see that they are on vacation, with the family or taking time for themselves, where do they go? Pictures of Italy, Greece, and more. I find this to be a tad ironic, and also interesting. What I mean is, to be so bearish about a region, but then for that region to also be your number one vacation spot. I myself need to get back to Europe - I really love French organic wines! One more important thing about a weak Euro: it makes European exports far more competitive. When they produce goods, relative to the Dollar, it now does not cost as much. In addition, that means they can sell their product for less. This means they can compete with more brands and services. It will lower prices, thus, make the product more attractive and easier to consume. Exports can be a great thing for a country! In this case, it's for many countries across Europe. There are many more interesting developments that I am thinking about - for example home buying the region, but that is for another post, and let me not waste any more of your time. Let's talk trade levels! The levels in yellow that I marked are from 2001/2002. That happened after the tech crash. If this is another tech crash, well we have further to go. In addition, that kind of pattern, and price behavior might be something to WAIT for. Hey, what's the rush. Lastly, I did highlight the extent of this sell-off. Month after month of selling. Even as a mean reversion trade I would wager there is some potential to return to rather significant moving average. The 200 day moving average is at 1.24, for example! Could it ever return there? If you do your own research, check out where the 50-day and 100-day moving averages are. You may also find that interesting. Okay that's all for now! Thanks for reading and good luck.
by scheplick
5
META - Great entry point to the future of virtual realityI will be explaining my reasoning behind being one the few going long here on META and Zuck We're witnessing the Motorola DynaTAC period where smart phones ultimately originate from. These Brick phones weighted in at 2.5 pounds or 1.1 Kg a little heavier and bulkier than the iPhone 14 at 0.37 Pounds | 0.17 Kg. Today I am honestly over smartphones that have been marketed as a productivity device turned into the exact opposite mixed with social media. Social media is a dying concept and completely anti social as everybody I see entirely on "social media" cannot even interact without a phone and gets the energy sucked out of them like a drug. There's hundreds of quotes prior to smartphones and virtual reality and I strongly credit the destruction of real development and innovation was due to social media mainly Facebook and Twitter, Zuckerberg realizes this and is making a forward step to finally get virtual reality done, we have the resources and the technology to start this, Microsoft, Apple, Valve, Varjo all see this and have heavily invested into this but by far META has the best chance to come out ahead as their profit model is entirely digital. Meanwhile everyone is throwing names at Zuckerberg, tv presenters have said he needs to go, global institutions we're basically just forced to fire sale META to meet margin calls. We're moving into a period of permanent high inflation, you can compare online gaming growth to Inflation the most growth came when people decided to use the virtual world over the real world due to cost of living, we have to stop thinking of this (Living entire lives in the Metaverse) and start thinking (Living a Hybrid lifestyle in the Metaverse) this will increase productivity and allow a real disconnect from digital to reality, smartphone can never provide this feeling due to the nature of how it attaches to humans looking to get little dopamine hits instead of completing tasks and actually being productive. Could META drop lower? of course nothing is certain in life but ask yourself in the next 5 years Zuckerberg pulls off the metaverse creating the next thing to the smartphone how much do you value the future? I can tell you one thing if people wait for the vision to be completed you have missed your opportunity. Happy bear market folks "By 2007, PDAs and cell phones will have merged into single devices. They'll have 802.11 (whatever flavor), Bluetooth, 3G and, possibly, direct satellite capability. They'll be voice-controlled and use a heads-up holographic display. Laptops will become unnecessary for most folks. -- Doug Jackson, director of technology customer services, University of Texas at Dallas" 2002 "The future of mobile/wireless computing over the next 10 years will include the replacement of tethered Internet connections with the freedom of mobility -- high-speed wireless Internet capabilities will soon become a staple for every worker, just as cellular phones are part of our lives today. Soon, affordable "personal broadband" services will allow business people to access their critical enterprise applications at a client site, an airport or in a cab. Personal broadband will also allow any number of applications that are waiting for the wireless Internet, from monitoring the vital signs of heart patients without doctor visits, to instantly uploading a digital picture to a personal Web site the instant the photo is taken. -- Martin Cooper, chairman and CEO, ArrayComm Inc., San Jose, and inventor of the personal cell phone" 2002 "By 2005, mobile access to information will seem as natural as remote control of a TV. In fact, we'll wonder why we spent so much time at a desk. -- Jacob Christfort, chief technology officer for the Mobile Products and Services Division, Oracle Corp." www.computerworld.com
NASDAQ:METALong
by UnknownUnicorn7947829
1
META Important Milestone!As you know, I am a long term investor. Thus, I usually buy stocks for the long term, and never short any equities due to shorting's unlimited risk. With a P/E ratio of 10, it would be reasonable to think that META is a good bargain considering its status as a social media giant. However: 1. META's Userbase is declining, something never seen before in the history of the company. 2. Competition like Google's Youtube and ByteDance's Tiktok is catching up and overtaking META 3. New Apple (AAPL) IOS changes, which made META's data collection process much harder, has and will adversely affect its ad revenue (which is 98+% of its total revenue) ---------- Specifically, the IOS change requires META to get the user's permission to collect data for Ads. Until now, data shows that only 33% of users allow META to collect their data for more personalized ads. I think you can see how this affects Ad revenue. Thus, the "metaverse" is the only thing that may/may not save META from its inevitable doom. However, that means that: 1. The metaverse needs to develop in the years ahead, and not just stay at a gaming level 2. META must have enough cash to fund research into the metaverse 3. It must dominate the metaverse industry Although I personally think that META is a lost cause, I choose not to label this as "#METAshort" because I think all investor have their own opinions. Here are some good points about META: 1. 10 P/E ratio (lower than S&P 500 average 2. META's adaptability 3. Technicals? (Not seen yet) I choose to write this now because META's Q3 results are tomorrow and are key to how META's stock and the metaverse will develop in the future. Anyway, thats all for my idea. Please leave a comment and boost this idea so it can go out to other investors! 😊 P.S. Someone give me coins :)
NASDAQ:META
by AlphaTigerInvestments
Developing A Dollar Bearish Strategy Using The Scientific MethodShould I Short USD? Yes or No? If yes, then how? If no, then why? The question is simple, but the answer may be complicated. Therefore, we will dive into the macroeconomics of the American economy, with consideration given the most significant factors influencing the value of USD. > OBSERVATIONS 1) Since March 2020, USD appears to have lost approximately 13% of it's market value. 2) Since March 2020, USD supply increased by $9.1 Trillion (COVID stimulus). datalab.usaspending.gov 3) Congress was recently asked to approve an additional $1.9 Trillion (COVID stimulus). context-cdn.washingtonpost.com > RESEARCH Part A: Three major external factors contribute to the value of USD... www.investopedia.com 1) Supply and demand: Exporting American products and services creates demand for USD, because foreign investors must exchange their currency for USD, in order to complete the transaction. Note: decreased exports = decreased demand = decreased USD value Note: decreased stock/bond issuance = decreased demand = decreased USD value 2) Sentiment and market psychology: Rising unemployment weakens the economy, reduces income, and slows consumption. If the US economy appears weak, foreign investors may sell-off their US securities, in favor of exchanging back to their national currency. Note: decreased employment = decreased consumption = decreased USD value Note: negative sentiment = decreased foreign investment = decreased USD value 3) Technicals: The release of government statistics (payroll data, GDP data, etc.) may help quantify whether the economy is strong or weak. Historical patterns generated by cyclical support/resistance levels and technical indicators also contribute to the movement of USD. Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total value of all the finished goods and services produced (in this case, within American borders) www.investopedia.com Note: decreased employment = decreased GDP = decreased USD value Part B: Four major internal tools (utilized by the Fed) contribute to the value of USD... www.federalreserve.gov 1) Discount rate: The interest rate reserve banks charge commercial banks for short-term loans. 2) Reserve requirements: The portions of deposits that banks must hold in cash in vaults or on deposit. 3) Open market operations: The buying and selling of U.S. government securities (T-bills, bonds, and notes). 4) Interest on Reserves: The interest paid on excess reserves held at reserve banks. > HYPOTHESIS Shorting USD will be profitable because the Fed is increasing money supply. Shorting USD will be profitable because the Fed is maintaining interest rates near zero. Shorting USD will be profitable because the Fed is maintaining reserve requirements at zero. Shorting USD will be profitable because the Fed is repurchasing government bonds on the open market. > EXPERIMENT Part A: Build a diversified dollar bearish portfolio. Include dollar bearish securities and commodities (FXC, FXE, UDN, GLD, IAU, DBC, DBP) Include International stock and emerging markets ETFs (open to all suggestions for this) Include foreign currencies (GBP, CAD, AUD, CNY, CHF, KRW, JPY, EUR) Include crypto currencies (BTC, ETH, LTC, and especially the DeFi sector) > RESULTS Pending... follow me for a monthly update to see if I get rekt, much love!
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by UnknownUnicorn13791118
40
DXY and NDXBased on my findings each day the Dollar Index (DXY) went higher the Nasdaq Index (NDX) sold off. My new strategy during this market is to watch the DXY daily trend and trade in the opposite direction of the trend with the NDX. Today the DXY rallied $.83 (.75%) and the NDX is down (-.67%) premarket. When the market opens I will watch to see if the DXY continues its overnight rally or if it becomes exhausted throughout the day. This is on a day when NFLX rallied 10% overnight due to a strong earnings report released after market hours yesterday. Today TSLA is expected to release their earnings report after the market closes as well.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Bakerdeshun
1