$MSTR "Buy The Dip" Value AreasHere are some value areas to grab some MSTR if you have been looking to get in or if you want to add on more. If it drops to these levels... this is the "buy the dip" or "load up more" zone. Good value down here.
Value
META - Now this is just strangeThis is just my opinion here, but I think META will soon reverse course. Notwithstanding the analyst upgrades, right now to an average of 757.98, the way it accelerated on the upwards trend (~20%) over the past ~5 weeks just seems suspicious. Scratching the surface to see what the company is up to, there seem to be quite interesting developments. For example:
At Facebook they briefly tried to use AI generated fake accounts. Strange why would anyone think that would be good idea, considering the already many fake/bot profiles. I believe this was a move to combat the fact that the market share reached saturation, there aren't that many *real* people creating new accounts.
Even though Zuckerberg "bent the knee" at the US president's inauguration and settled the lawsuit for unfairly banning Trump back in 2021 for $22 M, I still think what Meta did is going to have repercussions. Even though the first amendment right of free speech "does not apply to private companies", it is still discrimination, and I bet some people will take advantage of Trump's win. As the precedent has been set, they could now be hit by other similar lawsuits from other people being banned quite subjectively, suppressing their right to free speech.
Thirdly, checking the uninformative insider transactions, the sell volumes are hard to believe. If price is expected to indeed reach $750, why would Zuckerberg sell, only in January 2025, $366 million worth of shares? (probably peanut money for Zuck, but still, more than a quarter billion is not really "money that jingles"). There were no insider buying since the 19th of November 2024, when the price was 550 per share.
Their metaverse was a costly bet which, at least for the next year or two, seems that will not pay off. I'm saying this solely on the fact the more than 83% of users are below 18 years old, therefore have very little buying power (also 51% of users are below 13 years of age). On the VR space they focused too much on the software, and their hardware is now clearly behind Sony/HTC Vive (and truth be told, the software is really not that impressive either).
Lastly, based on what has happened over the past few years, and how Meta quickly changes their tune, most likely they will receive increased scrutiny both in the US and abroad for their monopolistic behavior and content moderation policies.
All in all, Meta is currently still a tech giant, but I believe right now it's a risky investment. At the time of writing 700 was shortly surpassed again, nevertheless, I think a 600 is a more realistic bet for the next 4 months (end of april 2025). If it were to reach a more realistic valuation of around 420, that would be a buy price for me.
I'm not saying short it, I guess I *am* saying that it's probably not a good idea to buy more... I'm also saying to me it's a bit strange (and maybe I don't have all the pieces of the puzzle, so any comments/feedback would be appreciated). Either way, this is just my opinion on the stock, don't take this as financial advice, but more as entertainment.
All the best and Good Luck!
Alex
BTC - Just Thinking about Volume and Price relation As my other active posts recently have been about the downward trend and BTC finding liquidity before a trend reversal and the second strong upward momentum of this market cycle.
I surmised that the smart money wanted to test the bull market support moving average, 200ema on daily. ~84,500 - 82,500 .
A large Fair Value Gap (FVG) on the Weekly Chart was created from the rapid price increase due to speculators and other investors FOMO'ing in on the rising assset.
Large orders were left unfilled due to areas of support and resistance, trend and moving averages which are usually oscillated through during price movement while market trend leads the direction, speculators drive price increases and smart money attempts to drive price down to areas where they can profit, selling into the momentum during speculator price drives.
I'm just thinking out loud here and really I only post these little updates while im interested in something and like to document it. I could be all wrong with how I am seeing this and perhaps if anyone ever does read this and can share some insight into price/volume relationships with the smart money institutional investors and whales I would be interested to heart their thoughts.
However to continue , I see a discrepancy , Large Selling Volume, Negative Delta and it appears that there are some blocks where Sell volume cuts upward momentum abruptly and consistently
The Chart should Show the areas that I am referring , I would be interested to hear what others think
Dogecoin: Trading What You See, Not What You Hope ForThe crypto world is buzzing about the acronym D.O.G.E., with many hoping this hype will ignite a massive price explosion for Dogecoin.
However, the market has repeatedly failed to deliver. In fact, every rally this year has been met with heavy selling.
As I often say, " trade what you see, not what you dream of ." And from a purely technical perspective, what I see for Dogecoin right now doesn’t look promising.
A Look Back: The Trump Pump and the Aftermath
Dogecoin experienced a massive pump last year, fueled by Trump’s presidential election win. But after the initial euphoria, the market cooled down, and Dogecoin entered a correction phase.
Leading up to Christmas, the price even temporarily dipped below the horizontal support level at $0.35. While the start of 2025 brought a recovery above this support, bulls have struggled to maintain their gains.
The Current State of Dogecoin
Even the brief spike two days ago, which initially looked promising, was quickly reversed. As of now, Dogecoin has returned to this critical $0.35 support line, showing continued weakness.
What’s Next?
Given the current price action, my expectation is that this support will eventually give way. If that happens, we could see Dogecoin drop to around $0.26, a level that might offer stronger support.
The Bottom Line
Dogecoin’s technicals suggest caution, not optimism. While the D.O.G.E. hype might tempt some into dreaming of another rally, the charts tell a different story. If you’re trading Dogecoin, stay focused on the reality of the price action and be prepared for potential downside.
As always, trade wisely and stick to the facts, not the fantasies.
AAPL 1.22.2025 IdeaMy assessment is a fair price on the stock of $230 per share. AAPL now sitting at $222.5, I believe there is a high probability for a 5% up move within a few months.
Entry would be favorable if AAPL =< $220. I would enter direct shares here.
AAPL is of those companies that will be affected by tariffs. However, AAPL has benefitted from expanding its services economy. In other words, AAPL is not reliant on iPhone sales to drive their FCF. This opportunity is one for those looking for a discount on a MAG 7. Just be patient! But be flexible and anticipate further disruptions.
Longggg Term Best Buy #adobeMay be not towards the end of 2025, but for more long term
Fundamental Reasons:
A diversified Tech Business which operates as a technology company worldwide. It operates through three segments: Digital Media, Digital Experience, and Publishing and Advertising.
Its CEO, Shantanu has been recognized by several publications as one of the world’s leading executives, including Barron’s World’s Best CEOs and Fortune Businessperson of the Year lists, and named a Top CEO by Glassdoor based on employee feedback. He is a recipient of India’s civilian honor Padma Shri and the Economic Times Global Indian of the Year award.
10 years revenue CAGR is 6.5 %
The largest Market Cap in its Sector > 192 B USD
Technical Reason:
On Monthly chart it took 4 years to make a Head & Shoulder pattern.
The best monthly closing on 31st Jan 2025 , the doji which is signalling for long term bullish reversal at the end of its right shoulder on montly chart.
This week it enters into its strong resistance Level above 440 - 446
Come to Daily chart, a bullish Harami formed on 29th January .
If this level remains till tomorrow, 31st Jan 2025 , then we have a strong bullish reversal.
1st Long Term Target 700
2nd Long Term Target 800
Best Of luck to me you all!!!
2025 for Sazgar (My Own Sentiment)2025 may be a Cyclical year for stock selection. Fundamentals are very strong.
as an investor the buying should be as soon as now. Then stick to the technicals and buy more at February End or if the price goes down around 905 .
another buy position will be between 660 - 513 .
It can reach till 1700 - 2000 level at the end of year 2025 ( subject to controlled interest rates ).
COCOA - We had a good drop, but demand is still high,so we go upHi guys, recently had a rollecoaster with Cocoa , but eventually the price went back and stabilized, now I am coming back to it hence , I see that there has been an ascending channel formulated. The overall technical overview is that the asset is indeed overbought, but at this current stage the fundamentals are out-weighting the technicals, bringing up the prices.
From a fundamental perspective, currently for yet another year we have had weather problems which causes the nearby crop of Cocoa in the Ivory coast which is the biggest exporter will be limited in spring as analysts are predicting. Additionally the weather circumstances have lead to an almost two year hiatus where we have problems with the supply of Cocoa, while the demand remains to be high.
‘Like coffee, chocolate is one of those things consumers are reluctant to give up. Poster items for inelastic demand.’
Entry: 11,203
Target 1: 12,404
Target 2: 13,036
Target 3: 14,026
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my channel so you can follow up with me in private!
Investment Opportunity - Steelcast LimitedSteelcast Limited, established in 1960, has emerged as a prominent player in the global steel casting industry. With its headquarters and manufacturing facility located in Bhavnagar, Gujarat, Steelcast specializes in producing high-quality steel and alloy castings for various sectors, including mining, construction, and transportation. The company has positioned itself as a key participant in the "Make in India" initiative, focusing on both domestic and international markets.
Financial Ratios
As of the latest financial report for FY 2023-24, Steelcast has demonstrated robust financial health:
Revenue: ₹412.51 Crore, reflecting a slight decline of 13.82% from the previous year.
Profit After Tax (PAT): ₹75.00 Crore, indicating a growth of 6.35% year-over-year.
EBITDA: ₹119.88 Crore, showcasing a growth of 3.53% compared to the prior year.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio: Near zero, highlighting a strong balance sheet with minimal debt exposure.
Return on Equity (ROE): Approximately 30.8%, indicating efficient use of shareholder funds.
These ratios suggest that Steelcast is financially stable and capable of generating profits while maintaining a low debt profile.
Future Projects
Steelcast is poised to capitalize on the increasing demand for infrastructure development globally. The company plans to expand its manufacturing capabilities and diversify its product offerings to cater to emerging markets and industries. This strategy aligns with the global trend of increasing infrastructure spending as economies recover from downturns.
Investment Strategy
Investors looking to capitalize on Steelcast's potential should consider the following strategies:
Long-Term Holding: Given Steelcast's strong fundamentals and growth trajectory, a long-term investment approach may yield significant returns as the company continues to expand its market presence.
Value Investing: With its low debt levels and consistent profit growth, Steelcast presents an attractive opportunity for value investors seeking stable companies with solid financial metrics.
Dividend Reinvestment: Although the current dividend yield is modest at 0.83%, reinvesting dividends can enhance total returns over time.
Industry Trends
The steel casting industry is witnessing a resurgence due to increased infrastructure spending worldwide. As countries focus on rebuilding and modernizing their infrastructure, demand for high-quality castings is expected to rise significantly. Additionally, with India's strategic positioning as a manufacturing hub, Steelcast stands to benefit from both domestic and international orders.
Technical Analysis
As of January 29, 2025:
Current Price: ₹855
Volume Trends: There has been a notable increase in trading volume today, indicating heightened investor interest and potential upward momentum in the stock price.
This technical movement suggests that investors may be responding positively to recent developments or overall market conditions favoring Steelcast.
Disclaimer
This blog post contains forward-looking statements regarding Steelcast Limited's future performance and market position. These statements are based on current expectations and involve inherent risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. Readers are advised not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements and should conduct their own research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
NVIDIA - We wiped 600bn, but this is still the best company!Hi guys we are going to take a look into NVIDIA. Yesterday we had an enormous sell off the stock and we dropped to an extremely strong support area. Despite the news from China and the newly acquired DEEPSEEK which works with a fraction of the cost compared to U.S. AI, I still believe that a new product cannot beat the old dog on the street.
Additionally the big tech companies are about to showcase their earnings this week, and all of this before NVIDIA showcases their own earnings which most probably would be stellar. So I am a firm believer that we should see the price go up from this level.
Entry: 120
Target 1: 130
Target 2: 148
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
Update on COPPER Futures: Bull PennantI posted an idea on HG1! COMEX:HG1! last year where I identified a channel that futures were trading in and made a plan to trade the copper index fund AMEX:CPER while it was in the channel and trade the Copper miners ETF AMEX:COPX when it broke out to capture asset appreciation as well as dividends. I got long last March in COPX and have been holding. Price has retracted back to the top of the channel and has formed a Bullish Pennant. I have been adding shares as we reached these prior support levels but now I am increasing my position in expectation of this next breakout.
$PEP as a potential anti-cyclical buying opportunityFor conservative anti-cyclical investors seeking annual returns in the 8-12% range, PepsiCo NASDAQ:PEP is becoming very interesting
Bollinger Bands & RSI Signal (chart 1):
Late last week, the stock generated my favorite oversold signal at the weekly level
My personal Accumulation Strategy in three tranches:
- First Tranche: Buy at $144
- Second Tranche: Buy at $136 if price dips further
- Third Tranche: Consider buying at $132, supported by 2021 Order Block (Chart 2)
- Potential Crash Scenario: If a market crash occurs, I will buy at ~$110 for final position completion
Fundamental Insights (Chart 3):
- Current earnings yield: 4.7%; Dividend yield: 3.7%
- Dividend growth rate over last decade: 7.5% per year
- PE ratio around 21, low since the Rona crash
Reasons Recent Price Decline:
- Inflation impact: Consumers switching to cheaper alternatives
- USD Strength: Diminishing international profits
- Rising US Government Bond Yields: Competing with dividend stocks, though NASDAQ:TLT at 2007 Order Block support suggests possible reversal (Chart 4)
-> Political Influence:
- Trump's stance: High interest rates and inflation, aiming to address these issues could weaken USD, benefiting PepsiCo
Conclusion:
PepsiCo presents a compelling choice for steady, anti-cyclical investments, with technical support, dividend growth, and potential economic policy shifts
$NVDA.... "Buy the Dip" Value AreasWith the release of DeepSeek, it sent NASDAQ:NVDA tumbling 20%. If this continues over the coming weeks/months, here are some value areas to "buy the dip" if you're looking to get in.
TRUMP | Donald Trump signs RADICAL Crypto Executive OrderPOTUS Donald Trump has issued an executive order aimed at creating a streamlined regulatory framework for digital assets, with a focus on cryptocurrencies.
One of the key elements of the order is the creation of a National Digital Asset Stockpile. This initiative is intended to establish a strategic reserve of digital assets to enhance economic security and encourage innovation in the sector. Additionally, the order calls for the formation of a specialized working group to develop a federal regulatory framework for digital assets, including stablecoins. This group will be led by David Sacks, the White House's AI and Crypto Czar, and will include senior officials from the Treasury, the U.S. SEC, and other key agencies.
Notably, the executive order explicitly bans federal agencies from initiating or supporting the development of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), maintaining a focus on decentralized cryptocurrencies. The creation of the Presidential Working Group on Digital Assets is expected to significantly influence the future of cryptocurrencies, NFTs, stablecoins, and other blockchain technologies.
The order also reverses previous directives from the prior administration that hindered innovation in digital assets. These outdated frameworks had prompted many U.S.-based crypto companies to relocate to more favorable jurisdictions, such as the UAE or Singapore.
President Trump's recent executive order is likely to have significant effects on both Bitcoin and Trumpcoin.
Bitcoin:
This pro-crypto stance including the establishment of a National Digital Asset Stockpile and the creation of a federal regulatory framework, could encourage investor confidence in Bitcoin. This supportive regulatory environment may lead to increased institutional adoption and public trust, potentially driving Bitcoin's price higher. However, the market's reaction has been mixed and we're not seeing an immediate result reflecting in the price just yet.
Trumpcoin:
Trumpcoin could experience heightened interest due to the executive order. The administration's favorable view on digital assets might attract investors to Trumpcoin, anticipating that it will benefit from increased visibility and potential use cases.
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BINANCE:TRUMPUSDT BINANCE:BTCUSDT
#XRP Now Is A Great Time!Is there was ever a time to purchase XRP for long-term holdings, now is the time. I could go into details on the one hundred + reasons why I am saying this and I will in future posts, but the drop that we are seeing today is some major whales taking out over-leveraged retail traders.
2025-26 will be quite a ride with #XRP. Stay tune as I begin to share with you the one hundred + reasons why XRP is a good great strategic investment. By the way, some excellent profits can be made SWING trading this crypto also.
If Trump Coins Don’t Teach You About FOMO, Nothing WillThe fear of missing out, or FOMO, is a powerful emotion that can wreak havoc on your trading journey.
Whether you’re a seasoned trader or just starting out, the urge to jump into a trade because everyone else is doing it—or because you feel like you’re missing out on a golden opportunity—can lead to costly mistakes.
Take, for example, the recent frenzy around Trump Coins ( BINANCE:TRUMPUSDT and BINANCE:MELANIAUSDT.P ).
Many traders rushed in, driven by FOMO, only to watch the value plummet just hours after launch.
This is a stark reminder of how dangerous FOMO can be.
In this post, we’ll explore why FOMO is so dangerous, the hidden risks it poses, and how you can sidestep these pitfalls to become a more disciplined and successful trader. Let’s dive in and learn how to avoid becoming the next victim of impulsive, emotion-driven decisions.
The Dangers of FOMO in Trading
FOMO is more than just a fleeting feeling—it’s a mindset that can derail your trading strategy and lead to impulsive decisions. Here are the key dangers of trading with FOMO:
1. Impulsive Decisions: The Enemy of Rational Trading
Ever made a trade just because it “felt right”?
FOMO often pushes traders to act on impulse, much like grabbing a chocolate bar at the checkout—it’s tempting but not always wise. Impulsive trading can lead to poor decisions that don’t align with your trading plan. Instead of chasing trades, stick to your strategy and wait for high-probability opportunities.
2. The Emotional Rollercoaster: Stress & Anxiety
Missing a trade can trigger stress and anxiety, making you feel like you’ve missed the opportunity of a lifetime. But here’s the truth: trading success is built on thousands of trades, not just one. Keep your emotions in check and remind yourself that there will always be another opportunity.
3. Chasing the Market: A Fool’s Errand
Seeing a stock or cryptocurrency skyrocket can make you feel like you’re missing out on a party. But chasing the market is a dangerous game. Markets move in cycles, and patience is your greatest ally. Instead of trying to catch a rising star, focus on precision analysis and wait for the next high-probability trade.
4. Short-Term Focus: Losing Sight of Long-Term Goals
FOMO often pushes traders to focus on short-term gains, distracting them from their long-term goals. While it’s important to spot high-probability trades, missing one doesn’t mean the end of the world. Keep your eyes on the bigger picture and trust that more opportunities will come your way.
5. Following the Herd: The Danger of Sheep Behavior
Just because everyone else is jumping into a trade doesn’t mean you should too. Your job as a trader is to follow your own trading plan and strategy, not to mimic others. Trust your research, instincts, and analysis—don’t let the crowd dictate your decisions.
How to Overcome FOMO and Trade Like a Pro
Now that we’ve identified the dangers of FOMO, let’s talk about how you can overcome it and become a more disciplined trader:
1. Stick to Your Trading Plan
Your trading plan is your roadmap to success. It’s there to guide you, not to be ignored. Whether you’re feeling the pressure to act or tempted by a “hot tip,” always refer back to your plan. Discipline is key to avoiding impulsive decisions.
2. Research is Your Secret Weapon
Trading without research is like driving with your eyes closed—it’s a risky gamble. Take the time to analyze the markets, understand the “why” behind your trades, and make informed decisions. Research is your crystal ball in the trading world.
3. Protect Your Capital
Risk and money management are crucial to long-term success. Remember, your trading capital is your lifeline —don’t risk it all on a single trade.
4. Develop a Calm and Collected Mindset
Trading is as much a mental game as it is a financial one. High emotions can lead to rash decisions and costly mistakes. Practice staying calm and collected, even when the market feels chaotic. The market doesn’t care about your feelings, so don’t let them dictate your actions.
5. Break the Cycle of Bad Habits
Every time you give in to FOMO, you’re not just making a bad trade—you’re cultivating a bad habit. Break the cycle by maintaining a disciplined trading routine. Stick to your strategy, trust your analysis, and avoid taking trades just for the sake of it.
Final Words: There’s Always Another Trade
Trading with FOMO is like sailing in stormy seas—it’s risky, stressful, and often leads to nowhere good. But by understanding the dangers and implementing the strategies outlined above, you can navigate the markets with confidence and discipline.
Remember this mantra: There is always another and better trade on the way, and I don’t have to catch every single trade that presents itself.
Let’s recap the key takeaways:
Impulsive Decisions: Stick to your trading plan and avoid acting on impulse.
Research: Arm yourself with knowledge and make informed decisions.
Chasing the Market: Be patient and wait for high-probability opportunities.
Risk Management: Protect your capital and balance optimism with realism.
Emotional Control: Stay calm, collected, and focused on your long-term goals.
By overcoming FOMO, you’ll not only become a better trader but also enjoy a more stress-free and rewarding trading experience. So the next time you feel the fear of missing out, take a deep breath, trust your strategy, and remember—there’s always another trade.
Happy trading! 🚀📈
Mihai Iacob
Expensive Going into EarningsA lot of Tesla's future earnings potential is already priced into the stock, particularly with pre-revenue products like Optimus and Robo-taxis. This has led to an expensive stock heading into earnings, with both the P/E and P/S ratios higher than historical averages. While it's true that these ratios aren't at all-time highs, the current PEG ratio raises some concerns. Back in 2022, Tesla's revenue and earnings growth were higher, justifying a higher P/E and P/S multiple. However, with growth now flat year-over-year, the market cap seems to be reflecting expectations of significant future earnings growth beyond the next year or two. One possible reason for this could be Trump's return to office might speed up the rollout of Robo-taxi revenue. Still, this leaves less room for error, and any delay or misstep in achieving the next phase of revenue and earnings growth could put pressure on the stock, especially as Tesla continues to rely on growing its EV sales cash flow engine.
$TTWO H&S Fakeout -> Sustained Long term RallyI want TTWO at $120 - $140 by May-Aug. to enter juicy longs on this
Thesis hinges on the idea that the $32 Billion company will make $100 Billion+ from GTA 6 selling @ $100 a copy to over 1 Billion users
ADA | ALTS | Good Buy or WEAKNESS?ADA is one of a few altcoins that have not yet made a new ATH, or trading close to its previous ATH.
Considering Cardano is one of the "older" crypto's , you'd expect it to behave like the rest of the titans. But instead, when overlayed with the Solana chart we see a disappointing comparison:
Regardless of this, ADA trades in a range within a fairly reasonable timeframe, meaning it is ideal for short term profits (range trading). ADA can easily do + or - 30% in two weeks, ideal for swing traders.
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BINANCE:ADAUSDT
Ready to run Blacksky lots of new contracts including rocket lab and government defense in Isreal. I believe we are quite undervalued here doubling soon.
MARI will not give upMari is giving a good opportunity to ride at current retracement phase. Currently it is at 23% Fibb Level where i made a good hammer candlestick with nice volumes on daily chart.
1st Buy Reason:
Great Management, Nice Fundamentals. Trading at Accummulative Level.
2nd Buy Reason:
Wanted to Buy many shares on 1st Buy. But Couln't did at that time. Invested again when money came in.
3rd Buy Reason (Will do on Friday Dt 24-01-2025:
I always buy good stocks if it goes down -9% within a week.
Trading at 23% of Fibb Retracement
Signalling a good hammer + volume increase.
4th potential Buy: Around 464 Level
5th potential Buy: Around 360 Level
BOJ interest rateBOJ interest rate decision tonight.
1/23/25 10pmEST
cons = .5%
prev = .25%
7/30/24
act = .25%
prev = .10%
3/18/24
act = .10%
prev = -10%
USD/JPY longer time frame 100 & 200 moving averages trajectory has moderated from a steep upward slope to a relatively neutral slope, ever since BOJ .25% interest rate decision in July. The faster time frame 20 & 50 moving averages appear to be oscillating above and below the fib50 of the past year high and low. I see this as a good short USD/JPY entry as the BOJ continues to raise interest rates to stabilize the Yen value, and the FOMC rates are going down.
Trade idea:
short = 157.08
stop = 158.88
profit = 150.77
20sma = 157.08
50sma = 154.83
100sma = 151.24
200sma = 152.79
1yrhigh = 161.95
fib50 = 150.77
1yrlow = 139.58
GBP/JPY - Preparation for the Interest Rate Hike on Friday - BOJHi guys , we would be looking in a shorter term trade on the GBP/JPY looking to chase at least 100 pips in a down turn , we have a positive expectation that the Bank of Japan would hike the interest rate on Friday from 0.25 to 0.50. I do agree that 25 basis points isnt a lot , but in a status that it took BOJ two years of sitting on negative interest rate to finally start balancing their sheets and looking to increase it, would give a positive approach into a better stability for the Japanese economy and more specifically the Japanese Yen!
Entry: 191.00
Target: 189.800
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
