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The Secrets to Forex & Miller's Planet (pt.3)You must read the preceding parts first. This one is a real doozy. Watch your reading comprehension levels go up in realtime. ------------------------------ "Very, very few people could appreciate the bubble. That's the nature of bubbles – they're mass delusions." - Buffett Last time we talked about how people who speculate are inherently delusional and are all in the process of losing; usually just money. The only way to 'win at losing' is to survive the delusion game by understanding the players and their psychology; not by guessing if price will be higher or lower in 10 years. When you survive, you are rewarded; all the money from big losers goes to the remaining players at the table. That's the derivatives, near zero-sum market in a nutshell. Sometimes players take their winnings and walk away, sometimes new players join the table. But in the end, 'the bucks are all that matter, everything else is just conversation.' The charts, the econ news, the geopolitical shocks... they only matter insofar as they influence the psychology of the players at the table. This is why you have to align your trading philosophy with player psychology first, and at the same time, reduce your risk presence when you take 'bets' in the market. Think of 'reducing risk presence' as surviving or holding on and think of 'surviving' as taking a piece of the pie from the losers when they hit zero. Remember, markets existed long before Adam Smith 'invented' capitalism. The original merchants and traders achieved longterm profitability by two methods: collusion, or by navigating wars, famine, oppression... Things haven't changed as much as you might think. Chapter 1: The Margin of Psychology Now, after the 2 parts, you've probably had enough of this distilled pseudo-academic fluff and you're ready for the valuable details. Too bad chief, here's another fluffy paragraph. Again, get used to losing. In the last part, I ended it by questioning if disorder can be consistent enough to be orderly. Now, we don't have to assume an orderly interpretation of disorder. It's proven by the presence of profitable traders/investors. The household names like Buffett and Soros. They operated, to a degree, on something investors call a 'margin of safety.' Which is: 'the intrinsic value versus the current or last price offer.' This is similar to what I've been presenting all along, only I disregard this Plato-like intrinsic value notion; please refer to my part 2 sectioned 'Emergence of Estimation' and read through 'Fact, Fiction, & Forecast' if you want the full take on this. Using fair value, or the center of price gravity, or more simply: 'resilient value;' especially when we are talking about derivatives and forex, serves as a better frame of mind. Because.. value only exists in the mind in a near zero-sum game. But thanks to psychology, there is some element of order present in the otherwise disorderly markets. You can worry about the ethical issues of big zero-sum money games later, after you can afford to read Das Kapital on your yacht. Chapter 2: Counting Cost I have spent a long time trying to find reliable patterns or orderly events in derivative markets. I have used or tested over 3000 indicators, experts, or scripts. So many that my MT4 terminal stopped showing them and I had to start an indicator genocide worthy of a binding UN resolution. Countless all-nighters across both small and large forums evaluating both the popular and wildly unconventional strategies and theories of forex. Books, videos, etc. 4, 5, 6 years and on. The stranger and more contrarian the idea, the more interested I became. More interesting to me than the idea itself was the line of thinking that created the idea in the first place. Why did retail traders think this way? Why did commercial traders think this other way? I was able to both regard and disregard the most qualified, and do the same for the least qualified. It's not a surprising lesson, but you have to go out of your comfort zones and destroy your biases to learn valuable things. Peter Thiel's contrarian thinking runs on this kinda stuff. Think about what has happened in the past several years. Contrarian thinking can turn idiots into geniuses these days. Chapter 3: Hidden vs Too Close to See Eventually, I stopped looking for a hidden far-off solution and started looking closer. You ever search your house to find your lost car keys only to later realize it was in your jacket pocket all along? Too poor to have a house, a car, or a jacket? Well, then keep reading. So I started looking at the in-betweens. What's as close as possible to the decision making agent itself? The first finding is that charts rarely have clear patterns, but human minds often do. From then on, research became straightforward and fruitful. How do I turn that theory into something that makes money, or at least doesn't lose money? I found the major candidates, the independent variables that create these flashes of order, these predictable events or parameters. It's not perfectly rigid, but its the next best thing in the highly volatile world of forex. Chapter 4: Executing 66 Orders First off, it's not as simple as a single mind's biases resulting in huge moves on a chart. To use a basic military analogy, you have to think in terms of a chain of command. From a few big 'minds' to many small 'minds.' Or, you have to follow the killchain step by step. From psychological origination to execution. Obviously, execution is when the order is filled and liable to p&l. We have lots of charting and analytical tools for market movement and execution. But what is the origination? How do you properly connect them? Can you chart or summarize origination and its 'plane?' So far I've talked a lot about psychology, but not much about specific biases relevant to forex. Or how a collection of 'psychologies' in the 'real world' might constitute a broader social factor, which, as a unit of analysis, goes on to influence markets in predictable ways. Does a commercial fund have biases? Does a central bank have biases? Does Wall Street have different biases than the City? Four broad but related questions: What is psychological origination and why do social factors matter? Based on the above, how do you setup or build an 'orderly' chart to find that resilient value? How do you use that knowledge to better manage risk and reduce uncertainty? And by extension, how exactly does that make you a more profitable trader? These questions will be fully addressed across the next several parts (maybe 7 or 8 more). I'm going to skip a deep dive into the first question for now, so you don't get too bogged down on the abstract thinking stuff, and instead mix it a bit with something familiar and more visual in question 2. For the rest of this article, we gotta talk timeframes and contracts first. Chapter 5: Murph's Law Time matters in forex. It matters a lot, and in ways some of you probably have yet to consider. In markets and finance, time shapes the parameters of most contracts. I would use a long analogy from Interstellar and Miller's planet (just watch the movie), but the key here is that: SOME RISK IS NEARLY GUARANTEED (written into the contract) while SOME RISK IS TIED TO SPECULATION ONLY. It's the difference between limited risk that is insured by the past versus unlimited risk that exists only via the future (you can have both as well). Up until now, we have dealt with the second, and not the first. Forex standards and practices (de facto contract rules), give us the first. Let me introduce timeframes, and then return to this so everything connects neatly. There are many different approaches to categorizing timeframes. By the common candlebar duration (1h, 4h, D; in other words it's categorized specifically by the 24hr clock); group A , or by abstract accumulation (like renko or heatmaps or orderbook data); group B . Now, the latter is a loose fit for a timeframe concept, it can be discrete and confusing, but you can argue 'realtime' or 'all-time' as a timeframe in itself. I won't be discussing realtime very much, and I strongly recommend you read the disclaimer far below if you are a crypto trader or have access to prime data or level two data in general. IF you are a forex trader that fits into group B, let's say a Renko trader, then you need not worry about the indicators or models I present. However, I've only known one successful Renko trader, and he had custom designed analytics. So good luck with Renko, gentlemen. I will focus on the group A category of timeframes: OHLC, Henken, line, etc. Everything that follows will be based on those. Chapter 6: Don't Fail Science Class The more you think of markets by real life principles, the clearer everything becomes. Which is why I want to explain timeframes by analogy. You could argue that markets share some basic similarities, at least from a layman's impression, to classical and quantum mechanics. The smaller the timeframe, the more random and chaotic they appear. And vice-versa. The center of price gravity at higher timeframes is more resilient to chaotic bits of new information. It's more certain . To use Bohm's term, you could argue its 'enfolding' or 'enfolded.' That while the general state of things is a chaotic flowing river, whirlpools with a set of persistent parameters can still exist in those rivers. All this really means is that different timeframes/sessions/days require different indicators and/or applications of those indicators. In addition, a full risk management approach takes into account the pairs/currencies chosen as well since their behavior may vary (choosing the river), and the nature of the contract itself (does it have a waterfall or extend forever?). Simple summary: some things are more certain at long-term timeframes and some things are more uncertain at short-term timeframes . Most of you will already know this. Chapter 7: Slaves to the Timezones When I'm talking about short-term timeframes and long-term timeframes, I mean intra-day versus weekly or monthly. Technically you could trade something like the 4h or daily within a single day. (but to avoid confusion, I want to focus on timeframes as the periods from which you open and close positions, not the duration of the candlebar). In other words, opening and closing positions within the 24 hour period (from open to market close). Versus. Positions held across multiple days/weeks. This is very important because they are effectively different types of market contracts because of the risk of rollover. (unless you have an Islamic account) In general: IF YOU ARE HOLDING POSITIONS ACROSS MULTIPLE WEEKS, you need to have either a genius technical or fundamental system OR, you need to be designing your trades with carry conditions in mind. 99% of you will fit the latter. Inevitably, this means your long term risk management must be quite different than short term risk management; particularly in the weighting of seasonality models and interest rates. I'll explain this stuff in the next article, but for now, make a selection: Imagine owning a stock that pays you a dividend (😏), now imagine owning a stock that pays no dividend (😴), and now imagine owning a stock where you pay the company a dividend (😂). Keep your "obvious" selection in mind, because it's gonna upset retail paradigms when I tell you why you're trading the wrong pairs on the wrong timeframes. See you next time. ------------------------------------ DISCLAIMER: Now, I should've mentioned this earlier but IF you are a cryptocurrency trader, and some of you reading this may very well be, let this be clear: I did not design these articles for your consumption. Though crypto is arguably a currency, it's core mechanics are different, as is the psychology of the players involved and the market structure. The legal, tax, and broader financial components vary (the nature of the contracts, the timezone/session influences). Indeed, regulation is the main fundamental in cryptocurrency right now, making it a market potentially susceptible to a near-total collapse (at least for blocks of investors) depending on the providence of your broker or income tax obligations.
Education
by CountofCoins
$LB Is A Speculative BuyIt's hard to get overly bullish on $LB, but the chart has piqued our interest. The stock has very strong support at the $16 level and $LB looks to be on the verge of breaking out. With so many bearish on retail names, $LB could outperform quite easily with so many pessimists and shorts in the stock. With 8% of the float short, we could see a nice short covering rally. $LB is also a deep value play. $LB trades at just 7.9x this year's earnings, .037x sales, and 12.12x FCF. With the stock down from 52-week highs near $30, there's a lot of room $LB can run. While we wouldn't bet the farm on $LB, it looks to be a speculative buy at current levels. As always, use protective stops and trade with caution. Good luck to all!
NYSE:LBLong
by InsiderFinancial
Qudian an extremely sound value proposition, poised to break outChina stock Qudian is extremely undervalued at about 2.5 P/E, and today it got a roughly 25% earnings forecast upgrade for both 2019 and 2020. Earnings are expected to grow over the next two years. Really this is one of the best value propositions I've seen in quite a while. Hopefully the stock will hold above $5 so that hedge funds can legally invest in it. If so, then the stock could see a strong recovery this year.
NYSE:QDLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
4
INVESTING STRATEGIES IN THE GigEconomy: VALUE-RSP & MOMENTUM-SPYShort and well-detailed idea on Value vs Momentum investing? ; Series on investing- Dec 28th, 2019 What's the Equal-value weighted(RSP) vs Market-cap weighted, top heavy(SPY) ratio useful for? - Simply for discussing how two of the most well known investment strategies have performed in the recent years. There's many books written on this topic, but I will try to keep this post as short as possible. 1. First things first, here's the whole chart. As expected, in downturns, large caps should perform outperform small caps, simply because of the lower risk. People tend to park their money in safe well-diversified stocks, when the systematic risks become too high. Vice-versa, in normal cycles and economic expansions, due to the higher betas, small caps outperform large caps. This was understandable for the short liquidity cycles in 2011-2012, and 2015-2016, which I discuss in my previous idea on liquidity cycles, But what about post 2016? There was a few rate hikes, but at the same time both fiscal and monetary expansion, that gave an above average GDP growth. Interestingly enough, the RSP/SPY ratio, almost has perfect correlation with the treasuries spread(yield curve, US10Y-US03M). Nonetheless, momentum strategy kept outperforming value investing. The question is why? 2. One of the answers is of course, the rise in the gig-economy and automation. Small business, even listed small caps, simply can't compete anymore . Whenever a company has a competitive edge(i.e instagram) it gets acquired by the time it becomes too threatening . Unfortunately, the end product of this trend, I would argue has been overall lower market competitiveness. The second answer to the same question, is because of the rise of ETF's and ETF investing . In simple terms, ETF's magnify momentum outcomes . Buy high, sell higher. Greater up-trends, but at the same time greater down-trends! 3. Will the momentum outperforming trend continue in the future? As this trend has been going on for few years, it's very hard to tell how far the gig-economy will expand. Lately, there's been support for the idea to break up big-tech, but this will just takeaway the competitive edge that the U.S economy has over the world. Nevertheless, history has shown consistently, that trends typically revert to their mean, and as we head into the next decade there's a high probability that value investing will once again perform well. To sum up this idea, with all said, I am taking the contrarian view. I think that we are entering into a speculative bubble. Obviously, things are looking quite well right now. Every-time, there's a minor chance of a market sell-off, the FED steps in with more liquidity. At last, the market will wake up at some point after the 2020 election (perhaps 2021-2022), and finally realize that there's no growth and no fundamentals supporting these high valuations (P/E consistently above historical average). This is my view on value and momentum investing. If you are interested in a discussion, simply write a comment or send me a private message. Thanks for the continuous support! -Step_ahead_ofthemarket- ________________________________________________________________________________________ >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated! For reference, fundamental investing is doing even worse than value investing. Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content- contact me through any of my social media channels.
AMEX:RSPLong
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
7
Overlooked silver explorer-developer with no debtGolden Minerlas Company ($AUMN) This is a Delaware corporation based in Golden, Colorado. The Company is primarily focused on advancing its El Quevar silver property in Argentina, as well as acquiring and advancing mining properties in Mexico, Nevada and Argentina. The following is not investment advice, but simply captures my personal observations: The market seems to have completely forgotten the stock; The most recent seeking alpha articles date back from 2014, for example. Current valuation reflects this, with a face-ripping 99% drawdown from its peak. Management, however, has invested in expanding the resource base during the depth of the PM bear market, and now just entered in a new JV agreement with the potential to broaden their resource base even further (see: www.marketwatch.com) That news seems to have sparked a break-out. Now we see this breakout being backtested. I don't see increased volume, and I suspect silver bugs are mostly overlooking this stock still. Its marketcap is tiny at only 30M, so it won't take much to start making waves and get noticed....
TSX:AUMNLong
by RvdH
‘Growth’ stocks are making a comeback versus ‘Value’The market saw a big shift in early September when money started pouring into “value” stocks, like banks and energy. Investors had neglected them for years and they were supposed to benefit from the U.S. and China ending their trade war. But that’s been fading in recent weeks, especially with Apple and Microsoft flying to new highs. This hourly chart compares two major ETFs tracking the two buckets of companies: The Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) and the Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) . Notice how VTV initially surged ahead of VUG on September 5, right after Beijing confirmed it was holding trade talks with the White House. That strength continued until about two weeks ago. The first setback was President Trump talking down hopes of a trade deal with China. Then came some weaker economic news – especially industrial production on November 15. Those two catalysts have dragged interest rates back lower and undermined one of the basic arguments in favor of “value.” Meanwhile, GDP estimates from the Atlanta Federal Reserve have nosedived from 1.5 percent to under half a percent. Topping it off today, oil is breaking down. A backdrop like goes against the “value trade.” It could mean to watch out for a pullback in the banks because financials are the largest sector in the value index. But it could also help restore interest in the big Nasdaq companies that have led the market for years. USO XLE QQQ
AMEX:VTV
by TradeStation
DOW Dupont Chemical: Value play (6% yield)Graph says all. PE = NMF, they're losing money and stock's been in down channel for quite a while; but the dividend yield at $44 is 6.4%; analyst expectations estimates agree DOW is going to earn more next year in FY 2020 with resizing and trimming, efficiency improvements &tc. Revenue is growing; From $3.4 RPS FY 2019 is expected to go to $4.4 RPS next year and may become profitable again thereafter. Mean target price = $54 based on these estimates. Still paying the >6% dividend; they pay you to wait, and you can sell weekly or monthly calls every month forever. I did a buy-write on just 200 shares/2 Oct calls. Will add more if we get a full correction; support is around $40, so you can sleep at night holding these over long-term. It's a "Dogs of the Dow" theory value play! This is not investment advice, just a pretty darn good trade idea IMO; trade at your own risk and consult a certified financial advisor before you plunge in here; GLTA!
NYSE:DOWLong
by DaddySawbucks
6
SP-500/ Gold - How to Buy Shares 90% Off - ValueCyclesSP-500/ Gold - #ValueCycle Analysis *Note that the vertical price axis reflects the number of ounces of gold required to purchase 1 share of the SP-500 *I understand there is a lot going on with this chart, but bear with me as i walk you through it (see worked example below) Macro Analysis: Lower Chart - After the lunacy of the tech wreck in the late 90's into 2000 the ratio peaked at just shy of 5.5 oz to 1 share of the SP-500 (obviously this would be more pronounced if we were looking at the Nasdaq) - From the peak in 2000, the value of the SP-500 has plummeted largely unabated until 2009 - 2011, finally hitting a low of around 0.5 oz at the time of the financial crisis and the introduction of Central banking QE, - This means that had you utilized this pricing/ entry method you would have been able to sell your shares at 5.5 oz and buy them back for a 1/10 of the price (illustrated with the red arrow) - This eventual bottom also coincided with the 90% bubble fib retracement level (a useful level, few people utilize) 'Near-term Analysis: Upper Chart - As you can see the SP-500 has stalled at the 38.2% fib retracement (possibly a dead cat bounce on the way lower) - This, coupled with the broader macro economic outlooks (weaker economic data, weaker manufacturing and greater Geo-political tensions) makes a strong case for this to result in higher gold prices (thus a lower ratio of stocks to gold) - I think it quite likely that the Fed will have their hand forced and will resume QE or some other form of stimulus to prop these markets up, but the beauty of this system is that you are pricing the assets in a more stable, non-inflationary numeraire, one that under such QE/ central bank intervention would thrive (thus revealing the true depreciation in value of the underlying) Putting it all together: An example - E.g. Sell your 10 Shares of SPX at 5.5 oz (red arrow) = 55 oz ($250/ oz) = $13,750 - Re-enter stocks at the green arrow for 0.5 oz/ share = 110 share of SPX (55/ 0.5) = $104,500 (55 oz times $1900/ oz) - Convert your shares back to gold (2nd red arrow) at 2 oz / share = 110 shares times 2 oz/ share =220 oz = 220 oz times $1520/ oz = $334,400 Total return = 2432% But more importantly, you have been able to leverage your existing holdings to acquire a non-depreciating asset, in this case gold (but there are many, many different options available to those who can properly utilize this strategy). If you liked this idea, let me know, give me a follow, thumbs up and follow my Twitter so you never miss a trade/ investment idea a
SP:SPXLong
by Profit_Link
RCII forming pennant, likely to run againRCII has a 9.3/10 Equity StarMine Summary Score, has beaten analyst estimates on its last 5 earnings reports, and has grown earnings by 113% this year. Its P/E of 12.3 is quite attractive for a growing company. Here's S&P Capital IQ's analysis of the fundamentals, scored out of 100: Valuation: 99/100 (extremely undervalued) Quality: 98/100 (extremely high quality) Growth stability: 97/100 (extremely stable) Financial health: 95/100 (extremely healthy) Man. You don't see numbers like those every day. About the only thing RCII *doesn't* have going for it is that rentals aren't a very sexy sector. This isn't going to run like a Tesla or a Beyond Meat. Still, this is a very solid stock that should climb out of its pennant soon, in my opinion. Set a stop loss beneath the pennant bottom. Edit to add: 1) several directors added shares on September 6, which I assume was part of their compensation plan, 2) RCII's price stayed stable after its dividend, which is always a good sign, 3) RCII got upgraded by Recognia today after the algorithm detected a breakout. I think this was a false positive, but it could move the stock price up anyway.
RLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
10-year low resistance! HUGE dividend yield (10%)The stock has been striked by fear of the internet! However, it has hugely overdone it. The stock is trading at P/NAV of 50%. Basically you are buying the assets for a 50% discount. > The reason? Investors will take out all the need for physical stores. However, what they don't realize for URW is that they are mainly in A-locations. The malls are actually increasing in rent (4%+ growth year on year) and fully utilized (95%+ always). The stock gives you today therefore a dividend yield of 9-10% depending on the price that you buy it.
EURONEXT:URWLong
by TurkishBearCapital
WINk in Large Bullish Divergence & Fundamentally UndervaluedThere's currently a large momentum and acceleration divergence forming on WINk, this will likely play out relatively soon and I think that as the larger crypto bull market begins WINk will be a top performing asset for the following fundamental reasons 1) WINk pays large dividends in TRX, which will be a top performing cryptocurrency because it is the largest dapp platform in the world, scalable, instant and free. 2) More games are being developed and added to the platform, and independent developers will be able to build on it soon too 3) More gaming licenses are coming, like New Jersey and Europe 4) Already posting strong numbers from organic marketing 5) Paid marketing begins in 2020, will see a massive explosion of the user base and dividends 6) Already secured partnerships with major sports organizations like Liverpool 7) WIN represents the best example of an income producing crypto asset that is tied to a decentralized application 8) Highest USD volume of any DApp on any blockchain Also from a value standpoint: WIN earns about 4,000,000 TRX/day on average or 120,000,000 TRX/month or 1,440,000,000 TRX/year At current prices this is about $22,000,000/year Earnings Per Share = 22,000,000/220,000,000,000 = 0.0001 Price/Earnings Ratio = 0.0002255/0.0001 = 2.255 Average P/E Ratio in online gaming industry usually over 20, making WIN significantly fundamentally undervalued, on top of being the most innovative platform in the industry. Also these are very conservative numbers as income and dividends are likely going to increase by orders of magnitude when paid marketing begins and the price of TRX increases. Wouldn't be surprised to see this over a dollar one day after developers finish building out the platform and really begin marketing it.
Long
by Intuit
1
$LL A Good Risk/Reward SetupWe believe the worst is over for $LL. Well-known investor Whitney Tilson called the Short, but has now gone LONG. Headlines of Sept 4: Lumber Liquidators (NYSE:LL) soars after founder Thomas Sullivan presses the company to evaluate strategic options, including a sale. Sullivan tells Bloomberg he is considering putting a bid together himself with private equity investors. A long-term plan from Sullivan could be to combine Lumber Liquidators with Cabinets To Go, which he founded in 2008. Sullivan also called out the LL board for overspending. As always, use protective stops and trade with caution. Good luck to all!
LLong
by InsiderFinancial
GOLDMONEY SHARE - 400% OPPORTUNITY?COMPANY & BUSINESS MODEL GoldMoney is a Canadian financial technology firm listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The company is a precious metals payment network, offering precious metals investment services to a broad audience. Legally regulated Goldmoney Holding, based on the company's patented technology, allows customers to open a warehouse account that they can manage online. Customers can invest in gold, silver and other precious metals stored in insured vaults in various countries. The stocks are customer tracked and can be physically repurchased. Goldmoney also holds interests in "Mene" & Schiffgold, both e-commerce jewelry providers and "L & B Trust", gold-based lending. The crypto business has left Goldmoney again at the end of 2018. CUSTOMER BENEFITS The fear of a bank collapse? Goldmoney helps. The customer is not dependent on the solvency of his bank as usual. Where the mass currently does not worry too much, as you firmly believe in your deposit insurance. In many countries, inflation is high and people are afraid of further devaluation. There are also extreme examples like Venezuela where the fiat money is practically worthless. The prices increase. The cash withdrawal is only very limited possible. In Europe we can not imagine that "yet". With the Goldmoney Mastercard the customer has a decisive advantage. The gold is physically deposited. The value remains stable in a crisis or even increases massively. If the customer wants to pay with the card, he can do so in his desired fiat currency. The fee model is m.E. very fair. BUSINESS REVIEW - Share is not significantly above book value - Low schooling (equity ratio above 90%) - Big cash & gold stocks - Attractive investments (growth investments) - Organic growth is right EXCLUSIVE RESEARCH In so-called field research, among other things, they talk to the management, make surveys and put the services of the company through their paces. However, please understand that I can not share all the content with you here. However, some information is also available internally. Among other things, no less than George Soros is involved in the company. (Source by PN) Soros is one of the best known and most successful investors. His investments have made him one of the richest people in the world. The company founders also hold significant shares in the company. OPPORTUNITIES - Timing could fit well (rising gold price) The price of gold is currently bullish. That should have a very positive effect on Goldmoney in many ways. - Rating The market has not even begun to notice how attractive the valuation of Goldmoney shares currently is. - Crisis Share The ultra-loose monetary policy will one day take great revenge. The hype about cryptocurrencies comes not by chance. In a crisis Goldmoney could become a high flyer. - Takeover For various reasons, I think it's not unlikely that Goldmoney will one day be taken over. Nevertheless, I prefer, of course, if Goldmoney remains independent. RISKS - Customer is king. Customer satisfaction needs to be improved - New laws Historically, there have already been "gold bans". Here, however, the advantage is that the gold, outside the EU, is physically stored and legally owned by you. In an emergency, you can immediately change your gold holdings into fiat currencies or alternative assets, or even physically purchase them. - Competitor Among the competitors should count Libra, where I put Libra in the same drawer as Apple Pay and so on. Although Libra has an extremely large network and can reach the potential customers through your reach (Whattsapp, Facebook, etc.) very quickly. However, Libra is anything but crisis-proof. The client must open a bank account and also has an exchange rate risk & liquidity risk. At the moment the politics is in the middle of what is a big risk for Libra. - Copy of the business model I think this unlikely because of the high entrance barrier, patent rights and infrastructure. CONCLUSION Goldmoney is a good deal for me as an investor. I regard this participation as a kind of insurance. In the event of a crisis Goldmoney could go through the roof (rates beyond 10 CAD) Currently, Goldmoney is still quite unknown, which will hopefully change soon. As Fiat money grows, Goldmoney's customers should grow as well. Sounds silly, but it is. The company has a solid balance sheet. The current price is not far above book value which indicates that the down-risk is limited. Reputable investors like Soros are invested. That makes me in addition positive. Disclaimer: Disclosure pursuant to §34b WpHG due to possible conflicts of interest: I am regularly self-invested in the securities included in the investment universe. I take no responsibility for any consequences or losses that may arise from using my information. Risk Warning: The instruments mentioned here do not constitute investment advice or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Securities may be subject to high volatility. In individual cases, this can lead to the total loss of the money invested or even to considerable losses. There is no liability for loss of assets. In addition, I point out that I personally hold positions in the respective genres and can dissolve at any time.
TSX:XAULong
by TREND-NAVIGATOR
9