The TOP wave count THE SHORT SQUEEZE HAS STARTEDThe chart posted is MY top wave count This is a major WARNING to being short is a highest risk in a few years . The spiral turn due is from sept 21 2001 Low The market rallied over 24 % gain in less that 62 days That last low was in a word Perfect in its relationships within the fib . I have moved to an aggressive long calls position and The tlt has a classic end to the 5 waves down . This alone gives reason NOT to be short at THIS MOMENT in TIME
Valueline
ValueLine Dividends / Yields / ReturnsSince the “Great Depression 2" exerted itself once again after the
2006-2009 formative stages:
Interest rates have been very low by historical standards.
Real interest rates and inflation have been in decline since the 1980s.
So have Purchasing Power and Real Savings.
While this trend has been a potential boon to borrowers creating the
credit-fueled speculative frenzy 4 decades-long...
It’s been a source of frustration for savers and retirees trying to live on
income from their investment portfolios and/or fixed incomes.
_____________________________________________________________
What has been the net result of the Divi's performance?
It has barely outperformed no yield.
Just barely.
2022 has shown the inability of those entities in need of Yield to losing
in the extreme.
Need to pay out 4.5% on an Annuity?
Ouch, yer down 20% on the year.
How long does that hold when the Credit Cycle to extend is over...
VALUELINE THE REAL CRASH IS MONTHS AWAY The chart posted is a great one so as to understand what still lies ahead WE ARE NOW CLOSE TO WHAT THE DEC FORECAST called for after a 13 yr Fake { FED Balance sheet} Bull market in assets . The avg decline over the last 120 years is 35 % peak to low .I said avg this one will look more like the 1973 to 1974 decline close to 50 % to 60 % when is all said and done . Over the last 13 years we had QE something that only made the top 1 % become the top .05% . I have pointed this out for the last 20 plus years and have become very well off And made a simple life way to many of you want to be Rich and not understand wealth is also time to have a simple life . money as well know it is called dollars to which it has been debased it buying power since dec 1971 . from 1.00 to now worth .027% to .045 cents sp has gone from 62 to 4818 and in constant dollars adjusted in 1971 dollars is about less than 5% gain the PONZI ended once again in nov 2021 .
Value Line Geometric Index / Balanced WeightingThe Value Line Composite Index is an Equity Index comprising 1,700 companies
from the NYSE, ASE, Nasdaq, Toronto Exchange, and OTC markets.
It is a Geometric Composite Index that is equal-weighted, uses a geometric average,
and has a daily change closest to the median stock price change. It is preferable to
the Value Line Arithmetic Index as it does not rebalance the end of every Trading
Session.
Similar to the NYSE Comp, but more highly correlated to the S&P500 with a better
balance and equal weighting.
It has provided an excellent signal as to when the S&P500 is about to correct.
________________________________________________________________________
I have been watching the Divergences build on the Weekly and Dialy timeframe, they
are approaching the tipping point whereby we will see the ES sustain an outsized corrective
move as soon a 1B Completes.
Leading Indicators gone bear... here we goNo need to say much as previous;y mentioned about the bearish divergence.
Looking at the panel again just adds confirmation of how bearish a turn it just had.
Some decent downside will follow...
Equal Weight vs. SP500New highs in select indices have been highly deceiving. They were driven by a few mega cap stocks. The $XVG index suggests a border market still in a bear market. Based on that measure $SPX would be trading at 2,600 were it not for mega cap expansions in 6/7 stocks.
Equally Weighted Index Suggests SPX Could Go Near its 2016 Lows This is simply (forget all the FED stimulus holding these markets up) a case of market-cap weighted exaggeration vs an equally-weighted reality:
While the S&P500 Index (market-cap weighted) is bear rallying higher since its March 2020 lows, the Value Line Geometric Composite Index (equally weighted) is NOT confirming this move at all.
The SPX has made it back near its 2019 lows and 2018 highs while the Geometric Composite Index is currently only back up to near its 2016 market levels. This illustrates to me that the SPX is being pulled higher by the massive market cap of the big 5 technology stocks of the SPX - remove those names or equally weigh them in the index and we should be much lower, at least near the 2000 level on the SPX.
INDEX: VALUE LINE GEOMETRICThe Value Line Composite Index is a stock index containing approximately 1,675 companies from the NYSE, American Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Toronto, and over-the-counter markets. The Value Line Composite Index has two forms: The Value Line Geometric Composite Index (the original equally weighted index) and the Value Line Arithmetic Composite Index (an index which mirrors changes if a portfolio held equal amounts of stock.) These indexes are typically published in the Value Line Investment Survey, created by Arnold Bernhard, the founder, and CEO of Value Line Inc.
The Value Line Geometric Composite Index is the original index released, and launched on June 30, 1961. It is an equally weighted index using a geometric average. Because it is based on a geometric average the daily change is closest to the median stock price change. The daily price change of the Value Line Geometric Composite Index is found by multiplying the ratio of each stock's closing price to its previous closing price, and raising that result to the reciprocal of the total number of stocks.
As market participants, we should be taking a scientific approach when putting money to work, always assuming our positions are wrong and need to prove themselves. As part of that process, one piece of evidence we want to look at on a consistent basis is the health of the overall market. One such way to gauge market health is studying market breadth. In other words, how many stocks are actually participating in any directional move. That's why we're writing today about an index you might not be aware of but should be familiar with.
M timeframe BULL
W timeframe BULL
D timeframe BULL
2018 NEW ATH
MACD M bullish momentum BULL
2009-2019 UPTREND TREND LINE ACTS AS SUPPORT
VERTICAL GREEN LINES show previous moments in history where M MACD have advanced to the upside into positive territory and have gained bullish momentum BULL
SUPPORT/RESISTANCE 1998,2007 resistance acts as support BULL
FIBONACCI LEVELS act as support BULL
IR CUTS -> RISK ON ASSETS APPRECIATION
EXANTE is a broker for professionals. Direct access to over 50 financial markets through one account.
Stocks & ETFs, Currencies, Metals, Futures , Options, Funds, Bonds, Crypto¬currencies.
Any information contained on this website is provided to you for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investments or related services that may be referenced here. Investing in certain instruments, including stocks, options, futures , foreign currencies, and bonds involve a high level of risk.
Single trading account
Trade in 50+ markets in the US, Europe and Asia — from your all-in-one multicurrency account on any device
exante.eu
