Coca Cola - A Clear Trading Setup!Coca Cola ( NYSE:KO ) will provide a textbook setup soon:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Coca Cola is one of these "under the radar" stocks which is just trending higher and higher but nobody is really paying attention. However currently Coca Cola is retesting a resistance trendline of the governing rising channel pattern so a short term retracement is quite likely.
Levels to watch: $72, $65
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Valuestock
Dollar General | DG | Long at $90.00Dollar General NYSE:DG took a massive hit this morning after revising their future earnings guidance. The economy is showing many signs of a recession, and this is a clear warning. From a technical analysis perspective, it has retouched my "crash" simple moving average and may dip further into the $80's in the near-term. But, like many overall strong companies that suddenly plummet, I view this as a future opportunity given the strength of NYSE:DG as a business (holistically). Dollar General is the only grocery and home goods store around in many rural locations. So, while there is doom and gloom in the near-term, Dollar General is in a personal buy zone at $90.00. I view this as a starter position, though, with the potential for future declines/opportunities for additional share accumulation in the near-term.
Target #1 = $100.00
Target #2 = $122.00
Target #3 = $200.00+ (very-long term outlook...)
How does inflation affect the stock market?The world’s financial environment has become incredibly tangled and multifaceted. The global availability of information to investors, particularly in rural areas, thanks to the internet, has caused investor sentiment to shift from an emotional response to an analysis and data-driven one.
Inflation serves as a prime example of this. In the past, most individuals viewed inflation as an indication of an unhealthy economy.
However, in the present day, investors have become more knowledgeable about economic cycles and are capable of making sound investment decisions at each stage of a country’s economy.
Therefore, today, we will discuss inflation in general and evaluate its influence on the stock markets in India. Let’s start with a topic on How does inflation affect the stock market.
What is Inflation?
In simple words, inflation refers to the gradual increase in the prices of goods and services. As the inflation rate rises, so does the cost of living, resulting in a decrease in purchasing power.
As an example, suppose bananas were priced at Rs.100 per kilo in 2010. In an inflationary economy, the cost of bananas would have increased by 2020.
Let’s assume that the price of a Banana is now Rs.200 per kilo in 2020. Thus, in 2010, with Rs.1000, you could buy 10kg of Banana.
However, in 2020, due to the decrease in purchasing power caused by inflation, you would only be able to buy 5kg of Bananas for the same amount.
To understand inflation in detail, let’s have a look at what is the reason behind inflation. So, there are two major factors behind an increase in the rate of inflation in the economy.
1) Demand > Supply
One reason for an increase in the inflation rate is when the average income of individuals in an economy rises, and they want to purchase more goods and services.
During such times, the demand for these products and services can exceed their supply, resulting in a scarcity of these goods and services. Consequently, buyers are willing to pay more for them, which leads to a general increase in prices.
2) Increase in the cost of production
Another reason for an increase in the inflation rate is when the cost of production of goods and services increases due to an increase in the costs of raw materials, labour, taxes, etc.
While this leads to an increase in the cost of production, it also causes a decrease in the supply of these goods and services. With the demand remaining constant, the prices tend to increase.
Inflation and the Indian Stock Markets:
The price of a share in the stock markets is determined by the interplay of demand and supply, which is influenced by a variety of factors, including social, political, economic, cultural, and so on.
Anything that affects investors can have an impact on the demand and supply of stocks, and inflation is no exception. Here is a brief overview of the impact of inflation on stock markets:
1. The Purchasing Power of Investors
Inflation, by definition, is a rise in the prices of goods and services, and it is also an indicator of the diminishing value of money.
Therefore, if the inflation rate is 5%, then Rs.10, 000 today will be worth Rs.9, 500 after one year. If the inflation rate increases to 10%, then the same amount will be worth even less in the future.
So, as the inflation rate increases, the purchasing power of investors decreases. This decrease in purchasing power can directly impact the stock market since investors would be able to purchase fewer stocks for the same amount.
2. Interest Rates
When the inflation rate rises, the Reserve Bank of India ( RBI ) often increases interest rates for deposits and loans. This move is intended to encourage people to save money and limit excess liquidity, thereby reducing the inflation rate.
However, as loans become more expensive, the cost of capital for companies also increases. Consequently, the projected cash flows of companies are valued lower, which can lead to lower equity valuations.
3. Impact on Stocks
As the increase in the inflation rate, speculation about the future prices of goods and services can create a highly volatile market environment. Since prices are rising, many investors may speculate that companies will experience a drop in profitability. As a result, some investors might decide to sell their shares, leading to a drop in their market price.
However, other investors who remain optimistic about the company’s future profitability may continue to buy these stocks, which can create a volatile environment in the stock market.
Value stocks tend to perform well during times of inflation because they are often more established companies with stable earnings and a history of paying dividends, making them more attractive to investors seeking steady returns. In contrast, growth stocks are often newer companies with higher potential for future earnings, but they may not have established cash flows to support their valuations.
When inflation rises, investors may become more risk-averse and prioritize stable, predictable returns over potential growth, leading to a decline in demand for growth stocks and a corresponding drop in their market prices.
4. Long-term benefits of increasing inflation rates on stock markets
A certain level of inflation is required for an economy to grow, as it encourages spending and investment. A moderate and controlled rise in inflation rates can lead to an increase in the income of the people and help in boosting the economy.
However, if the inflation rate goes beyond a certain limit, it can have a negative impact on the economy. Therefore, it is crucial to maintain a balance between inflation and economic growth.
Conclusion:
Investors should analyse the trend of inflation rates in recent years before making any investment decisions. Sudden spikes in inflation rates may cause uncertainty and volatility in the stock markets, while a gradual and steady rise in inflation rates can provide a conducive environment for businesses to grow and expand, leading to higher stock valuations. Additionally, investors should consider investing in sectors that perform well in an inflationary environment, such as energy, commodities, and real estate.
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💌📫📃 If you have any questions, you can write me in the comments below, and I will answer them.
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Indications that there may be some potential additional valueNYSE:BHG BHG's current price level of $13.45 Entry. Indications that there may be some potential for additional value creation if the stock continues to perform well over time. Bullish on BHG as long as its current price remains above its 52-week low and it has not recently fallen below its 200-day moving average price level or below its 50-day moving average price level. Additionally I'm considering holding shares of BHG for the long term, I believe they will continue to perform well over time based on their current performance and prospects for future growth potential.
Price target $51.5
Paypal - too cheap? PayPal's stock looks undervalued, trading at 6-year lows and a forward P/E ratio of 12.3, despite a strong Q1 performance with respectable transaction revenues, total payment volume, and growth in value-added services.
Operating expenses are well-managed, contributing to substantial growth in operating income and earnings per share, while consensus estimates suggest mid-to-high teens EPS compound annual growth rate.
Market concerns, such as PayPal's Q2 revenue guidance and increased competition, are offset by the Moderate Buy consensus rating, suggesting a 60.7% upside potential.
The involvement of activist investor Elliott Management and the potential sale of the cross-border payment unit, Xoom, signal strategic changes that could enhance PayPal's performance.
PayPal still rides the wave of the growth in e-commerce, with 12% payment volume increase in Q1 2023, and a rise in peer-to-peer transfers, demonstrating resilience in a challenging macroeconomic environment.
The fundamentals of this company have become detached from the share price, making this a long term buy and hold with hugely asymmetrical risk/return profile.
Shorter term, the move back to the highly developed Point of Control would represent over 20% growth, which I see as a high probability outcome within weeks.
PDD - Read to Fly?
PDD is ready to fly. Here are some solid reasons:
REASON 1 - Accumulation Completed
Down since February 2021, this e-commerce platform of China has taken a reversal. Entered accumulation zone in March 2022, now enough buying volumes and positive earnings have pushed it out of the accumulation zone. Breakout has occurred at 73 USD key price level, and so now stock seems to have entered advance zone while the key long-term resistance (All Time High) is at 214 USD - a gain of more than 100% possible.
REASON 2 - Higher Revenues & Net Income
The real fuel is provided by better earnings and further higher expectations in the future. Revenue has grown 23% in TTM while income has swelled 260% in TTM - both are impressive signals of continued growth. Further pedestal is provided by positive expectations of end of lock-down in China which can open-up locked industrial growth.
Risk
Still caution is needed as markets aren't out of wood.
Ascending Triangle in Ralph LaurenAn under-the-radar trend in recent weeks has been strength in legacy retailers like Macy’s , Gap and Ross Stores. Today’s chart focuses on a potentially bullish pattern in peer Ralph Lauren.
Notice the series of higher lows since November 10, when earnings and revenue beat estimates. There’s also a resistance zone around $104.50. The result is an ascending triangle, a potentially bullish pattern.
Second, the top of the triangle is near RL’s previous peak in August (also following a strong quarterly report). This could make the current resistance area and triangle more important.
Third, the stock is trying to push above its 200-day simple moving average.
Next, RL is in the process of forming its second consecutive inside candle on the weekly chart. That also highlights its tightening price action (with subsequent breakout potential.)
Finally, MACD has been steadily rising.
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META resistance another tryThe $172 resistance on META is strong and tough to break. Stock tried 5 times and got rejected today again. Keeping an eye on this one. Trend is still bearish, and we need more volume and accumulation to go up but the run in last last couple of days was wonderful. Waiting for retest and will add more to my LT.
Value stock. Bic.Bic has a p/e ratio of 6.5. 4.7% dividend yield.
Has been down trending since 2015 and is now range bound with a high of 64.9 and a low of 38.5.
Printing a falling wedge which is a bullish reversal pattern.
RSI struggling with breaking into bullish territory at the 50 level.
AO showing bullish divergence and no real momentum.
Key levels indicated by horizontals show support and resistance.
Will tag on monthly analysis.
CB is a good buy stock for long term investors For the investors who look for long-run performance, this is for you.
Chubb Limited, incorporated in Zürich, Switzerland, is a global provider of insurance products covering property and casualty, accident and health, reinsurance, and life insurance and the largest publicly traded property and casualty company in the world.
The insurance sector is the best opportunity for long-term investing especially for a global company like Chubb.
By reviewing the company profile we noticed:
The net income for the last 3 years was :
(8,816B for 2021) ( 3,533B for 2020) (4,454B for 2019) ( 3,962B for 2018)
Year over year ratio YOY %:
+149.53% for 2021
-20.68% for 2020
+12.42% for 2019
EBIT:
(10,515 B for 2021) ( 4,678 B in 2020 ) ( 5,801 B in 2019) (5,298 B in 2018)
Year over year ratio YOY % :
+124.77% in 2021
-19.36% in 2020
+9.49 % in 2019
Free Cash Flow 11,093B for 2021
9,785B for 2020
6,342B for 2019
5,480B for 2018
Cash Flow incresing rate
13.36% in 2021
54.28% in 2020
15.73% in 2019
for the assets
Total assets & Debt
199,054 B for 2021 with 15,131 B (Debt)
190,774 B for 2020 with 15,256 B (Debt)
176,943 B for 2019 with 13,867 B (Debt)
167,771 B for 2018 with 12,395 B (Debt)
Debt-to-assets ratio %:
7.60% for 2020
8.00% for 2020
7.84% for 2020
7.39% for 2020
Top Institutional Holders
Holder ---------------------Shares------------- Date Reported ---------% Out -------------Value
Vanguard Group, Inc. (The) : 35,555,260 Sep 29, 2021 7.90% 6,168,126,504
Wellington Management Group, LLP: 28,179,660 Sep 29, 2021 6.26% 4,888,607,416
Blackrock Inc ^ : 27,411,957 Sep 29, 2021 6.09% 4,755,426,300
Capital International Investors ^:22,357,084 Sep 29, 2021 4.97% 3,878,506,932
State Street Corporation ^ :22,003,925 Sep 29, 2021 4.89% 3,817,240,909
---------------------------------------------------------
Final view
The net income is increasing annually with a high ratio
EBIT is increasing with a high ratio
The cash flow increasing ratio is high
Asset value increased over the years
The debt ratio is low which is a good sign
Chubb Limited is a good buy stock for long term investors
For the position:
Buy limit on 190$ -185$ area
Buy limit at 157$ -163$ area
buy limit at 140 $ -143 $ area in case the price makes a strong move against our position
Targets:
Take profit every 50% profit
We expect to see a continuous increase in CB stock
Our Globalized WorldNow that Q3 earnings season it is time to return to the fundamentals. In light of the current turmoil in the middle east, today we will talk about globalization. One of the most interesting things about global financial markets is that they are all connected in one way or another. I like to compartmentalize globalization into two general categories supply chains and political influences. In today’s episode, we will focus on supply chains.
When providing context into supply chains, I do not think there is a better example than Apple’s iPhone. Of course, the iPhone was designed back in Cupertino, CA, but the supply chain runs into multiple different countries. The complexity is mind-boggling, there are over 175 individual components. Additionally, the design and assembly of these components also happen in distinct parts of the world, in the US and China. The complexity is all done in an attempt to reduce costs by outsources cheap parts and labor but it also comes with associated risks. If one link in the chain breaks then the probability of success is essentially broken. A perfect example of this is the automotive industry. Following the reopening of countries around the world due to the COVID-19 induced shut down, assembly lines around the world were closed. As things ramp back up, a delay in a single component, no matter how minimal, can cause significant disruptions.
Another inlet to the supply chain is shipping channels. Back in March 2021, there was an incident with a cargo ship that became barged in the Suez Canal. If you are unfamiliar with the Suez Canal, it significantly reduces travel time from the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic. The bargain is not only delayed the individual ship but every ship behind it. This created delays throughout the global shipping community that results in months and millions in delays. This is example is not limited to boats but can be seen in any transportation medium, such as the hacking of the Colonial Pipeline which created petroleum shortages across the East coast. Supply chain disruptions could hit any industry at any time.
The most significant feature of this trend is that shipping rates have been rising for over 30 years and there is no end to the trend. Even in the COVID-induced recession shipping rates rose. As companies optimize costs through increased globalization, the risk of supply chain disruptions also increases a counterproductive tradeoff.
Personally, I like and own the company $GSL which will benefit from the crosswinds either way. The company owns and operates shipping vessels around the world. As volumes increase their pricing power expands. In the unlikely scenario where volumes begin to decrease they will still maintain market share and become cash flowing machine. Additionally, if the industry consolidates then decreasing shipping rates will incentivize companies to continue to invest abroad. The company had a couple of problematic years due to the increased political tension during Donald Trump’s tariff-friendly administration but has been on the rise ever since. If there is a continued globalization-friendly administration the stock could continue to outperform. In particular general performance to the DJT (Dow Transportation Index), it has been a laggard. Potential for mean-reversion?
HUYA - [Reversal] LongTime to go long with HUYA - I'll keep this short & sweet to save you the "Car Salesman" pitch.
We've bottomed out on the .236 level and are looking to make a break through the $19 barrier before we take our first batch of profits at $21 being our next level of resistance. I'm setting a close stop at $18
Couple of other favorable factors;
- Increasing volume on the daily timeframe
- RSI is healthy (not showing overbought conditions)
Good luck
Kroger - W's Are a Happy Place
I've been looking more at value stocks (high cash flow & strong dividends)... and Kroger caught my eye.
LOOK AT THAT W!! Granted we are looking at 1 week candles over YEARS... but... I'd look at this as a buying into a long term play at the right time.
August 2012 started a massive 3.5 year bull run
Start of 2016 we see the beginning of a major retracement down to the Fib .5 line and a long term W begins to form.
August 2020 price hits and breaks the neck line but is rejected at newly established resistance line
NOW - price broke the neckline again and is on it's way to testing the other resistance line
If that second resistance line is broken, we could see the start of another strong multi year run from Kroger. If we're rejected again we could fall into a bullish pennant, which is still a strong buy, but a much longer play. If the price fell back into the pennant, you could expect price to fall back to the lower resistance line established by the bottom of the W... a strong buy opportunity if you see this as a bullish long term play.
DAI on support zoneDaimler (DAI) from a technical point of view on weekly chart it is above a support zone and the price can get any direction .
From a investor point of view DAI is on a good price and if is getting cheaper is even better as a long term investment by taking in consideration dividends.
Fundamental data as we can find on different financial news , DAI is little shake it by new regulations in Europe but is coming with new amazing improvements in the industry.
DAI Daily chart Double Bottom Daimler (DAI AG xetra) on a Daily Chart looks like the price complete a double bottom and it is in support zone from the weekly chart from a technical point of view.
It is possible that the price to rebound from support zone .
First-ever dividend on CURO is bullish long-termI'm uncertain what CURO will do tomorrow after its mixed earnings report, lowish sales guidance, and announcement of a share buyback and first-ever dividend. What I do believe is that the initiation of a dividend will be quite bullish for the stock in the medium-to-long-term. Stocks that initiate a dividend for the first time tend, over the next 6-12 months, to move toward a higher multiple than they've traded at in the past.
CURO currently trades at about 7.5 P/E and 3.5 forward P/E, according to data from Fidelity. Its PEG ratio is an extraordinarily low 0.3, making it one of the most undervalued stocks in the entire market. On CURO, I think it's reasonable to expect forward P/E to come up into the 10-15 range, at least, over the next year. That would require roughly tripling the share price from its current extremely undervalued level. The dividend yield, by the way, is a little over 2% at the current price, so you have that to look forward to as well. CURO's share buyback should also help boost the price, and then of course there's the expected 3.5%-10.5% growth of adjusted earnings next year.
All in all, I think the signs point toward a strong future for CURO, and I likely will add some January 1 calls to the shares I already own.
Tailored Brands (TLRD) due for a bounceTLRD has received a ton of negative press, sentiment is negative, price action is $h!t BUT bullish divergence is showing. Seems like a ripe one for a pump. However, dont bet your life saving on it. Still a $h!t stock although many argue its a great value stock
-0.23% away from positive SMA20, Weekly performance +2.65%,BUY! Here is the data derived with many positive attributes via FInViz.com
Index - P/E - EPS (ttm) -1.23 Insider Own 5.70% Shs Outstand 20.15M Perf Week 2.65%
Market Cap 8.51M Forward P/E - EPS next Y - Insider Trans - Shs Float 12.53M Perf Month -12.02%
Income -20.30M PEG - EPS next Q - Inst Own 26.90% Short Float 1.56% Perf Quarter -79.99%
Sales 87.40M P/S 0.10 EPS this Y 46.70% Inst Trans -3.93% Short Ratio 0.78 Perf Half Y -78.99%
Book/sh -4.71 P/B - EPS next Y - ROA -4.20% Target Price 5.00 Perf Year -94.79%
Cash/sh 0.06 P/C 6.55 EPS next 5Y - ROE 27.70% 52W Range 0.37 - 8.50 Perf YTD -75.45%
Dividend 0.60 P/FCF 0.19 EPS past 5Y 31.00% ROI 11.60% 52W High -95.03% Beta 0.89
Dividend % 142.08% Quick Ratio 0.10 Sales past 5Y 13.70% Gross Margin 76.40% 52W Low 14.20% ATR 0.08
Employees 6 Current Ratio 0.10 Sales Q/Q 28.80% Oper. Margin 24.40% RSI (14) 25.91 Volatility 15.52% 12.59%
Optionable No Debt/Eq - EPS Q/Q 50.10% Profit Margin -23.20% Rel Volume 1.33 Prev Close 0.46
Shortable Yes LT Debt/Eq - Earnings Aug 15 BMO Payout - Avg Volume 249.10K Price 0.42
Recom 1.50 SMA20 -0.23% SMA50 -64.44% SMA200 -79.24% Volume 330,735 Change -8.22%
Good time to buyTechnical and Fundamental indicators show strong growth in the next few months. This company made a recent acquisition (Supervalu) and as per the company's strategy standpoint, it is a good move for expanding the supply chain and offer more product line to the customer.
Good buy for swing as well as value investors.