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3 Volumes > 1 Up :: Volume Series Vol.2I am always excited about what the users here conjure up with Pine. I don't know if it's because of Pine’s new features, but little by little TV just keeps getting better and better. What caught my attention is the Raindrop from Makit0. You can find the indicator, or let's better call it this charting instrument, when you search for "Raindrop" in the Indi menu. I think it's really nice that the code is accessible free of charge and gives others the opportunity to improve and refine the code. Everything is not yet fully developed but the foundation stone has been laid. I'm not quite sure about the settings either, but for now I'm very happy with them. Most likely use "simple" candles. Candles "earlier" were high-end in contrast to the "previously" known charting instruments. Point & Figure, Line-Chart and Bar-Charts are the veterans. Meanwhile the financial market is more complex and today's trader has to process a lot of information that cannot be reconciled with a candle, for example. Therefore, I am always looking for "things" that provide me with certain information quickly and efficiently and ideally combine different things so that a "step" or one or even better several things are omitted on the chart. The raindrop as a charting instrument is still quite new. If you google you will find the origin 2018. There you will also find what you are looking for when it comes to the function or the construction behind it. It is basically nothing more than a tuned candle with a vertical volume profile and a session splitter. It also looks pretty chic and doesn't clutter the chart. This is an interesting thing, especially in the daily timeframe , because with the daily you get a built-in, easy way to separate the ETH / Electronic Trading Hours / Overnight / Asia and Europe from the RTH / Real Trading Hours / Pit Session / US session. Unfortunately, I still lack the setting for the indicator itself that you can further specify the time of the split. The Raindrop simply divides 24h in half ... So you get a rough breakdown instead of an exact one. However, the current option is better than nothing and thus replaces the rough session indicator and the volume profile . The less stuff there is on the chart, the more overview you have and the clearer the focus. For example, if you have not paid attention to different sessions and volumes beforehand, you have an easy way of quickly taking this into account with one tool at a glance. It only takes a few seconds can provide a good source of objective data. What you can do here primarily is to quickly and easily see at which price levels the most volume has arisen and how the focus (here on the example of the DailyTF) of the overnight and the US session is. You can easily see where there was very little volume and which zones are highly frequented and thus interesting for later price movements. The raindrop is a mixture of traditional chart display, volume and equivolume. I have added a chart below in the comments in which you can see the only available equivolume tools from TV compared to Raindrop. The definition of equivolume from the WWW: "In the Equivolume Chart, the price is shown in the form of rectangular boxes. The height of the boxes represents the range between the highest and lowest prices. The width of the boxes shows the trading volume . The wider the box, the greater the trading volume in the period under consideration. " It's kind of like a volume weighted candle. The raindrop is a good tool to objectively display volume and sentiment. As with everything, there are certain "patterns" in the form of different raindrop types that I don't want to list here. The left and right "mean" / "value area" / "price level with the most volume" of the raindrop is calculated using 2 anchored VWAPs. In order to show the connection to the VWAP (2nd chart) and the volume profile with activated Developing Value Area (in the 3rd chart window) I have added the two lower windows. Each of the tools listed has a meaningful use, but you don't always need everything and if necessary you can combine all 3 representations on a chart ... The raindrop provides 4 parameters - high - Low and the mean of the 2 split periods We can see with all 3 charts that the information is the same and only the presentation varies. I have no idea whether it will be of any use to me in the future, but I will now observe it continuously and learn from it. Actually, I had no intention of creating a blog post, but if you ever make the effort to compare the Raindrop with the other tools, I can share it right away and save others the trouble. The information of the raindrop is clearly confirmed for me and now it is up to me or the user whether and how one can / want / want to use it for daily trading. I think I'll publish something about it here, but for now I'm done. Have fun with it!
CME_MINI:MESH2021
by HanDollarian
Bitcoin - Looking for Value Vol.14 : HypothesisAfter the motivation had subsided and the "healthy" correction started, I thought to myself I would do another episode of the exciting series> Bitcoin looking for Value <. Since I sometimes work on the articles in several stages, sometimes new impressions come in in between, which I incorporate and which steer my flow of thoughts a little off the rails. Sometimes I'm a bit scattered, but in the end everything usually comes together. So also in this post ... After I expressed my concerns about a possible price decline in my last post "1% Club" and received a lot of encouragement: Thank you very much for every single like! That made me really happy! Now that the correction has started, I'm of course annoyed about my stubbornness not having sold a portion of BTC and of course not that amused. But in the end it can be sausage, because one way or another I hang on the BTC and like it exactly where it is currently: on my wallet. A mega awesome sentence from the comment section will accompany me forever: The Bitcoin is a digital Picasso of the financial industry and a Picasso is not so easy to sell. With this phenomenal wisdom I can live great and deal responsibly with any correction. Many thanks to the user AdGt for this great sentence! But further in the topic ::: In fact, the BTC has apparently found its value for the time being: $ 40,000 is a very, very proud sum ... brutal how quickly you get used to these heights ... A lot has happened since episode 1 of this ongoing series and I am very happy with where this odyssey has taken us or me so far. For me this is my BTC diary and I like it ... In the first episode I had no idea how it should go but and meanwhile the story is slowly building up and actually starting to make sense. If we look at the various volume profiles that are visible on the chart, we can see some nice distribution curves, which now serve as stable and fundamentally and actually existing static trading levels. I like to draw these zones / volume profiles over blocks of price action, from swing to swing, over correlations and how it makes the most sense for me. Here you should just try around until you are happy. Similarly, I also like to do it with price action, I tune the timeframe until it looks like I'm happy with it. In any case, the market has built a very nice structure for us here and created some very nice balance ranges aka happy ranges that we can work with from now on. I really like to use the happy ranges to do destination trades, which is nothing more than a test of the other side of the value area when we break into a balance. Of course this doesn't always work, but often enough that it is super profitable and a complete "trading system". I hate that term, but it makes things a lot clearer. Currently (that was yesterday ...) at the time when I am sitting on the post, the price is below the last full VA and even if I don't like to say it, I have the impression that we are going to go deeper here and correct further. But since I wrote these lines yesterday and the price has achieved its goal: to achieve value area high, the hypothesis is void. Now it would be great if the price is accepted and traded at the current price level so that all market participants, algos and quants agree that we all want higher prices. Great that the price actually made it and made these lines possible. Every VA that is below (and of course above) the current level acts as a possible S / R zone and offers scope for a small bounce or even a complete reversal towards new ATHs (that would be nice, wouldn't it?). Whether that is likely or not, no one can determine in advance, the rational mind of course continues to assume that prices will fall, which would not be so bad, because quite honestly: the BTC has done its job and can rest for a while. However, we live in crazy times and why shouldn't the price just keep rising? Nobody Knows. And as of today: Fire at once again ATH :) The price moves to where momentum / acceptance and lots of transactions are processed or where the “demand” comes in in the form of market orders. If the market is hard short, then everyone who notices the momentum shorts until a market participant big enough says stop and slowly but brutally brings the price back up on track. Apparently someone has changed the course, which means that people are buying hard again. Momentum is up, so every Algo and Quant is buying everything up the price ladder. Based on my article about the "Squeeze and the Innovation Curve", the weak hand hipsters could simply be liquidated from the market (has it already happened?), The inventory (was the market too long?) equalize and then when everyone is stopped ... it goes up again diligently and in big steps - as we can see today, this is exactly what has occurred. With the contributions I try not only to add value for the community but also to "perpetuate" a beautiful picture book of my ideas and thoughts for myself. I think it's great that everything fits together so nicely and that you can actually learn something from it. Even while I'm writing this stuff, I keep coming up with cool ideas that I then like to implement or try out afterwards. The oblique connection with the value area trend lines was created freely when drawing. And only now do I notice that it was actually an extremely smart thing. I'm not a big fan of trend lines, but from now on this "variant" is a great way for me to add a variant of a "value trend line" that makes sense to me in my personal toolbox. At least it looks very promising. We'll keep watching. Stay tuned! #BtcUsdT $BtcUsdT #Btc $Btc
by HanDollarian
1
Innovation Curve and the Squueze"Everything in life follows universal laws. If you act against these universal laws, you will experience pain." A very nice piece of wisdom that I picked up from some book. These universal laws apply everywhere, consciously or unconsciously, visible or invisible. I have broken some universal laws in my life so I know that pain is a fact. But everything bad always has good sides, because today I know that I prefer to act in sync with these laws. This post contains a combination of two very, very cool theories: Diffusion theory according to Rogers with the 5 consumer types & the Gaussian bell curve of the normal distribution. "The Innovation Curve", which I blunderingly painted over the chart, is basically nothing more than a Gaussian curve with the parameters of the consumer types from Rogers: * Innovators * Early adopters * Early majority * Late majority * Laggards The idea for the blog post came to me spontaneously when I saw the price action of the current BTC movement. It is a beautiful and extremely clear picture book example for the representation of the system and I think it is self-explanatory for the logic. It should simply represent the topic in a simple and simple way ... nothing more. Of course, I cannot guarantee the correctness, but simply give my thoughts here. With this I would like to encourage the readership to deal more intensively with the topics mentioned, because honestly ... the stuff is just awesome. You often hear or read that the weak hands are being flushed out of the market. Shakeout, Thrust, Spring, Stophunt ... no matter which words you use for the thing, it is and always remains the same or comes out the same, namely to get the majority out of the way. I just distributed the individual levels freely according to gusto. So please forgive me if I portrayed something wrong. The innovators and early adopters have positioned themselves nicely and attracted the masses. The early majority got wind of it and got hold of a very good position. The late majority already paid premium prices, but had the advantage that they received many confirmations and signals that made the trade "safer" or "clearer" for them. Here your own expectations of the further course of the position decide. The Laggards, the main character in our example, is always late. Indicator signals, signals from groups, rumors, hot tips etc etc ... This is where innovators and early adopters sell their positions (distribution phase). The weak hands are therefore the majority who go into the trade later and can rarely sit out the losses / drawdown and are squeezed out of their trades. That is the nice squeeze and also the moment when Fibonacci retracements come into play. It's not really about the Fib series of numbers ... it's about the pain.
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by HanDollarian
Bitcoin - Looking for Value Vol 13It grows and flourishes ... Small comparison to the last "Bullrun". Left the old and right the new. Objectively speaking, things are currently looking extremely good for the Hodler. Subjectively anyway :) Similar to 2017/2018, we have a very long accumulation phase in which the average trading volume was even raised to a new level compared to previous years. And here in this example I've only listed the data from Coinbase ... Of course, the continuously increasing volume is also due to the ever-advancing adaptation and development, the passage of time, etc. Markets just grow, but I still think it's worth mentioning, because it shows what's going on ... measurable and objective. What used to be awesome is normal today ... This is another indication that the crypto market is slowly growing up and also becoming more and more interesting for more traditional investors. There is one advantage here but also many disadvantages. It's a shame that so few parts of the normal population are still involved and that more and more people are coming into the market who actually already have enough and can't get their throats full enough out of sheer greed. But that's how it is, always and everywhere. If the population doesn't get on board soon, the chances of getting hold of a Bitcoin are getting smaller and smaller. It's actually a shame that there are no super hackers who pull the money out of the pockets of the rich and divert the money to the less well-off population, that would be something right? And really sad, everyone who bought dearly in 2017 and 2018 and sold their good and valuable Bitcoin over time with a fat minus .... Real mindfuck .... Had, would ... Yes, one would have. But back to the lenses. The market is rising in a very stable manner and showing no signs of weakness. The impulse movements are still extremely stable. No overlapping of the value areas, no deep retracements ... good moment, good volume ... everything chic ... If we look how long the BTC was in the distribution phase after the rally at the end of 2019 before it then corrected ... 90 days ... We are still a long way from that. The trend is still young and full of energy. It will probably be the same as with the indices > Buy the Dip Forever #BtcUsdT $BtcUsdt
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by HanDollarian
.:Static & Dynamic Value:. Small gimmick as a little push how nice you can set up here on TV to make the trading experience a "tick" more pleasant. ... In addition, while writing I spontaneously came up with something about, let's call it self-discovery from the own trading personality... ______________________ The Volume Profile is a brilliant tool, not an indicator, and the whole professional trading industry looks at it. The same goes for the Vwap . However, you don't HAVE to use it if you don't like it. But what I personally always prefer and recommend is to form your own opinion about something. You should never rely on what others say but always form your own opinion. Because mostly the majority is wrong and even if the collective whole thinks something is good, it doesn't have to be good. ______________________ So if you don't like the volume profile and can't get anything out of it, you should probably do it. try the VWAP before throwing in the towel. Or you are really crazy and try to combine both, which can be pretty awesome ... ______________________ The volume-weighted average price has more to offer than simply being the "average price". I like to use it as "Developing / Dynamic Value" in combination with the volume profile . The interesting thing about this thing is that it is not just an arbitrary indicator, but a visual representation of the actual transactions. What makes the VWAP so dynamic is the function of the bands based on the calculation of the conventional distribution curve / Gaussian distribution. This can give clues about volatility , rhythm and patterns. The bands of the VWAP are extremely sensitive, as many "digital eyes" of the Algos and of course a few of the remaining human eyes look at them. That alone is enough as an argument why you should look into the matter more closely - you don't have to. ______________________ The chart is BtcUsdT and I have compared the volume profile with the weekly Vwap with the 3 standard deviations shown as bands in the charts above. You can see that we get a nice value area from both tools that are almost identical. I do not want to go into detail here on the use of the tools. Youtube and Google provide tons of material to learn and study. It should just create intention to dig into this beautiful topic. ________________ Many traders are looking for the holy grail, the perfect system, the secret technique that opens all doors. A very well-known streaming provider is currently running a very ingenious series about a young lady who is a chess genius. In one of the later episodes, a young man says to the lady - who thought he would like to become a professional chess player - that the time together (the two trained together for a tournament) revealed to him that he doesn't like chess ( cf .) so much loves like the lady and that he has recognized that it is apparently not his destiny to become / be a professional chess player. What I want to express with detours is that the holy grail is devotion / love / obsession - call it what you want - the door opener. You should allow yourself a lot of time to find your true trading personality, be it instruments, tools, platform etc. and make these things your own. You only get really good if you really live what you do. One can think or know something. You should be able to feel the difference. As in trading, it's the obvious things and not the stuff that you have to look for with a magnifying glass. Just because the tools / techniques / strategies exist and they work for others doesn't mean you have to force it on yourself. Concentrate on your interests, what you enjoy and what you just find awesome. I hope that I have aroused a bit of interest in some topics and I wish everyone a Merry Christmas! $BtcUsdT #BtcUSdT $BTC #BTC
by HanDollarian
"Hello World" welcome to the next stage :: H2O Futures ::We live in bad times. Those in their thirties still know the good "old" world. We are truly at the transition from the "old" to the "new" world, consciously or unconsciously. For many years I have been concerned with the "possible" future and all the technologies that lie ahead. Much has already arrived, but not yet really visible, or not yet aware of the people. I've read a lot and thought a lot. It all makes a lot of sense, but I've always wondered how this "blatant" change is being carried out. With the advent of the random virus that keeps our world in suspense, raw material shortages, ailing financial system, US elections and many other nuances, the picture becomes clearer - for those who want to see it. Of course, these are all conspiracy theories. It is and remains like in the good Matrix film. Everyone can find what they're looking for. Most don't know what they're looking for, so they can't find anything. This scheme also works 1: 1 in trading. Anyway ... for those who missed it. From now on you can trade water. For the time being they are "only" water futures from California, but that will certainly spread very quickly. Sex sells. Forget bitcoin, gold and oil ... water and essential raw materials are the explosive markets of the future. You should use the access to the financial markets and the information available there sensibly and try to help yourself and the people around you. The fact that we are now ready to trade the water on the stock exchange gives an indication of what the future will look like. And while many are still of the opinion, "I won't experience that anymore ..." as parents like to say, they should rather be prepared for major changes. Because they will come. The world has changed forever in 2020. #H201! $H2O1!
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by HanDollarian
2
Hindsight Breakdown ::EurUsd:: New York Setup A really very nice setup that I just noticed while skipping trough my charts- Backtesting and Pattern Recognition is like going to the gym. You always have to keep fit and stay on the ball. Trading has more to do with sport than you might think, because we are only paid for performance. And if we don't score goals, there won't be any money. This setup came about shortly after the NY session started. We have a nice + order flow in the h1 and m13, which is very easy to see with the naked eye. (- why m13? - because I prefer it to the m15 -) If we are bullish, then we need targets on the buy side. The highs marked with $ are very good for this. Because I love value, the value area must of course not be missing here. The goal of the prize is always to reach the other side. If you look closely you will see that this is where we made the high of the day. If we are bullish, then ideally we want to buy / sell stops from long traders. This is very annoying for traders, but quite convenient for us. We then pair these sellstops with buystops, which are very beautiful and practical here. I like the NY session best because that's when the market is most liquid. You have to set parameters for yourself, otherwise you will just be confused about. If I can't trade in the US session, then there is no trade for me. Good filter that saved me from really stupid trades. The fact that this setup emerges right at the beginning of the session requires a good degree of certainty in the setup and a quick reaction. In this "small" 30 pip m1 setup we have a convergence of many different fundamental and logical influences. We have pain with the stopped longs and pain with traders who wanted to go short the old lows. So here we have double pain. Logical, understandable and universal. Chart is bullish, so the trend / delta / order flow - call it whatever you want - is bullish and we expect prices to continue to rise. To this we can add the value area (which is nothing else than the zone with the most transactions) and get another signal for long, because the price usually wants to visit / test the other side. Furthermore, we have very nice highs as targets in the environment that are neither hidden nor secret, there is also an overall weak dollar and certainly there is something in terms of news that can be added. See there was ECB news ... That would have been a really cool picture book trade. There are so many ingenious setups in this chart that I'm really annoyed that I didn't participate. But that is also part of it. Rein your sanity, stay relaxed and dynamic and wait for the next setup.
by HanDollarian
:: Longterm Hypothesis :: Eur/Usd I was confronted with the question of what my long-term view of the Eur is and I wanted to try to list it briefly and concisely here. This is the monthly chart, once the hourly EurUsd and once the continuous euro future. Unfortunately, the future doesn't give me the same amount of data, it's just like that ... Now all of my decisions are based on value. Accordingly, there are three very distinctive zones for me on the large EurUsd chart. Each has a very strong S / R and the price loves to test both sides if it is allowed to penetrate. Of course, this doesn't always work. If it doesn't work, the next logical point is usually the last value area. If we don't feel comfortable somewhere, we tend to go where we feel good. The price is just like us. It is interesting that we are currently in a value area (VA) of a larger VA. This gives a little more support and ensures good support. The scenario drawn on the chart is of course only one possible variant of how it could work: - Price tries to penetrate the new VA - will be rejected - Tests the previous VA - is also thrown off again and receives the tip that the price should please report up again - the price follows the advice, is warmly welcomed, but asks the doorman again if he is really welcome - Doorman says ok and the price can pass We come to the future. The time is marked here with the vertical lines. The futures give us the most transparent volume one can get, so it is used here as an aid. The large profile looks very ugly. The market likes to be balanced and prefers to shape a nice curve. I inserted this curve by hand and made it visible. In the gap (green box on Charts 1 and 2), the price ideally still has a lot of transactions to make in order to make the profile nice and round. That, in turn, could happen with the process that the price -possibly. even - several times he is not allowed into the new zone and he has to wander back and forth between the two VAs over and over again - completely indecisive - in order to achieve this goal. If we add the Dxy , which is currently falling very sharply, this will give wings to the long-term positive outlook for a strong euro . In 2020, 20% of the existing dollar inventory was generated. There have never been as many dollars as there are today and the dollar is becoming worthless and worthless. Of course, it can't always fall, so we have a more or less interesting liquidity zone that can be triggered. If this happens, then it increases the chance of our scenario with the fill of the transaction curve. To me that sounds like a very coherent and logical price behavior that we could experience in the near future. #EurUsd $EurUsd #ED1! $ED1! #Dxy $Dxy
by HanDollarian