VCP
SOLUSD Tight Risk Buy PointWorking up the right side of a quality base, digesting the 1,100% run from September 2023 thru March 2024. High volume flush in April that was quickly bought up, shakeout in early-May, reclaim of important VWAPs, volume declining as it works its way up the right side.
Now with the current volatility contraction, it setups up a potential early buy point within the base over 175 on a thrust in volume. The most aggressive stop placement would be just under the 163.50 low from 5/30. I will personally give it room to fluctuate until a decisive break below my cost basis around 150-ish.
ACES (VCP - 21W 25/4 4T)I have my positions
March 19, 2024
Reasons:
1. Low-risk entry point
2. Confirmed stage 2 uptrend
3. Has gone through a majority line of supply
4. A breakaway move, first breakout of a confirmed stage 2 uptrend
5. High relative strength
6. Volume dries up as less supply coming to the market
Flaws:
1. The market is still in a hard-penny environment, not much confirmation from the momentum stocks with only 25% of total stocks above the 200-day moving average
2. The index is moving higher but there are still less stocks setting up in this market
The stock breaks near the closing day and squats. I like to see if the stock can tighten up for one last contraction, resetting its pivot, before I consider adding more to my position.
VCP in LODHA - 25% up move expected after breakoutMACROTECH DEVELOPERS (LODHA) - is nearing its 52 week high with a dry up in volume on a daily time frame with a consolidation from the past 100 days.
The company has seen an influx of institutional investing in the last quarter.
Good for swing traders to be kept on watchlist. Look for volume gain above the 30w moving average on weekly time frame.
Can expect an upward momentum of a min of 25%.
Entry - INR 1245
SL - 8%
TSL - According to your risk profile.
Disclaimer: Please be advised that the information provided is not intended as financial advice. It is imperative to conduct thorough research before making any investment or trading decisions.
SOTL-A Monthly VCP Breakout & Retest candidate, 30% ROIExpecting ROI - 30%
As mentioned in multi time frame analysis charts,
1) Monthly 6 year old VCP Breakout, Retest done , consolidated for 2 months,
now ready to move out of the consolidation zone.
2) Compressing at major supply region with minimal
sellers strength
3) Expecting BO soon, SL at prev week low.
JTEKT INDIA - Weekly and Monthly VCP with a 6 year old breakout.The stock has broken upside of it's important supply region - 2018 all time high levels , clear Volatility contraction in place.
Breakout and Retest has happened - level - 162.
As per the Technical pattern, target of minimum 236 is seen.
As mentioned in charts,
My entry at 178 with an SL of 5%, target of 30% - 236 - Trailing as per Price Action.
BNGA (VCP - 26W 9/3 4T)I have my positions
February 5, 2024
Reasons:
1. Low-risk entry point
2. Confirmed stage 2 uptrend
3. Has gone through a majority line of supply
4. A very clear supply coming right across the red line where all the action happen as far as where it's been denied
5. High relative strength
6. Volume dries up as less supply coming to the market
7. A huge volume on the breakout
8. Strong fundamental standpoint.
Flaws:
1. The market is still in a hard-penny environment, not much confirmation from the momentum stocks with only 25% of total stocks above the 200-day moving average
2. The index is moving higher but there are still less stocks setting up.
I bought my big position last week and couldn't manage to add more today on the breakout. I like to see some follow through action from now.
AMMN (VCP - 11W 30/4 3T)I bought my positions today
February 12, 2024
Reasons:
1. Low-risk entry point
2. Confirmed stage 2 uptrend
3. Has gone through a majority line of supply
4. An early IPO stock to has big upward momentum to considered a leader in this type of market
5. High relative strength
6. Volume dries up as less supply coming to the market
7. A decent volume on the breakout
Flaws:
1. The market is still in a hard-penny environment, not much confirmation from the momentum stocks with only 25% of total stocks above the 200-day moving average
2. The index is moving higher but there are still less stocks setting up.
I like to see some follow through action from now.
BMRI - CUP WITH HANDLEI bought my positions today
January 4, 2024
Reasons:
1. Low-risk entry point
2. Confirmed stage 2 uptrend
3. Has gone through four majority line of supplies
4. Offers multiple entries at a cheat area and a handle
5. The base has VCP characteristics
6. High relative strength
6. Volume dries up as less supply coming to the market
7. Huge volume on the breakout
Flaws:
1. The market is still in a hard-penny environment with only 32% of total stocks above the 200-day MA
2. The index is moving higher but there are still less stocks setting up.
A classic cup and handle formation with cheat pivot entry. I like to see some follow through action from now.
BBNI (VCP - 12W 12/2 3T)I bought my positions today
January 4, 2024
Reasons:
1. Low-risk entry point
2. Confirmed stage 2 uptrend
3. Has gone through a majority line of supply
4. A breakaway move, the first breakout after the stock in a confirmed stage 2 uptrend
5. High relative strength
6. Volume dries up as less supply coming to the market
7. Huge volume on the breakout
Flaws:
1. The market is still in a hard-penny environment with only 32% of total stocks above the 200-day MA
2. The index is moving higher but there are still less stocks setting up.
This is a textbook VCP setup breaking out. I like to see some follow through action from now.
PJAA (VCP - 24W 20/4 3T)I bought my positions today
January 8, 2024
Reasons:
1. Low-risk entry point
2. Confirmed stage 2 uptrend
3. Has gone through a majority line of supply
4. Dried-up volume, indicating all the selling has been exhausted
5. Huge volume on the breakout
6. Strong fundamental basis with triple digit percentage earnings
Flaws:
1. The market is still in a hard-penny environment with only 31% of total stocks above the 200-day MA
2. The index is moving higher but there are still less stocks setting up.
I like to see some follow through action in the upcoming days
Understanding the Volume Contraction Pattern (VCP)The VCP is an essential pattern for swing traders, as it signals the potential for a significant price move. The pattern occurs when a stock goes through a series of contractions in price and volume, indicating that selling pressure is waning and the stock is setting up for a potential breakout.
Key Components of VCP:
Trapped Buyers (TBs): These are investors who bought at the peak and are now "trapped" in a position as the stock price declines. They are likely to sell when the price gets back near their purchase price, creating resistance.
Loss Cutting (LC): As the stock declines, some investors will cut their losses and sell their positions, adding to the downward pressure.
Profit Taking (PT): Once the stock rebounds, those who have profits from buying at lower prices may start to take profits, which can lead to a temporary reversal or pullback in price.
Bottom Fishers (BFs): These are investors who are looking to buy the stock at what they perceive to be a bargain price, often near the lows of the pullbacks.
Stages of VCP:
Initial Decline (1): The stock experiences a significant drop in price, often on high volume, indicating strong selling pressure.
First Contraction (2): The price begins to stabilize and contract. Volume diminishes here, suggesting that selling pressure is decreasing.
Advance (3): The stock price rises, potentially leading to TBs selling near their break-even points. This can create resistance, but if the stock can move past this level, it's a positive sign.
Second Contraction (4): A higher low is formed compared to the initial low. Volume contracts further, indicating selling pressure continues to wane.
Subsequent Advance and Contractions (5): The pattern repeats, with each pullback being shallower and on lower volume, showing that supply is being absorbed and demand is taking over.
Breakout (6): Finally, the stock breaks out from the VCP on increased volume, signaling that demand has overwhelmed the remaining supply.
Trading the VCP:
When trading the VCP, look for the following:
A series of at least two contractions in price range and volume.
Each contraction should be shallower than the last, showing less and less selling pressure.
The breakout should occur on higher volume, confirming the pattern.
Entry Point: A trader might enter a position as the stock breaks out from the final contraction.
Stop Loss: A stop loss can be placed under the most recent low of the last contraction to limit risk.
Profit Target: Targets can be set based on previous resistance levels or a multiple of the risk (stop loss size).
Remember, while the VCP is a strong pattern, it's not foolproof. Always use proper risk management and consider the overall market conditions before taking a trade.
SMMT - FLAT BASEI bought my positions today
September 18, 2023
The reasons:
1. The stock offers a low-risk entry point
2. It developed a textbook flat base setup
3. It has VCP characteristics
4. It has a high relative strength
5. It outperforms the general market
6. Volume dries up and huge volume on the breakout
Flaw:
The market is still in a hard-penny environment with only 33.8% of total stocks above the 200-day MA.
VCP Breakout Buy in NVONovo Nordisk is emerging from a textbook volatility compression pattern (VCP) - the setup made famous by Mark Minervini. Notice the series of progressively shallower pullbacks from left to right as supply has been absorbed by buyers.
NVO is a market-leading stock by all accounts. Shares are up 75% over the last twelve months with no signs of slowing down. This is largely thanks to its new weight loss drug showing tremendous results in clinical trials.
The company has also experience accelerating earnings growth for the last several quarters - another favorite quality of Minervini's for identifying top performers.
NVO looks buyable here as a swing trade with a stop loss 9-10% below the current price.
ACES (VCP - 12W 18/3 3T)I bought my positions today
October 12, 2023
The reasons:
1. Low-risk entry point
2. Prior strong upside move
3. Has gone through a majority line of supply
4. A breakaway move, the first breakout after the stock in a confirmed stage 2 uptrend
5. High relative strength
6. The stock explodes 83% while the market only goes up 2%
7. Volume dries up as less supply coming to the market
8. Huge volume on the breakout
Flaw:
The market is still in a hard-penny environment with only 35% of total stocks above the 200-day MA.
I like to see the stock holds up and follow through.
BMRI (VCP - 32W 19/3 4T)I bought my positions today
July 20, 2023
The reasons:
1. Low-risk pivot entry
2. A quintessential long-base VCP
3. The stock is at its all-time high with a six months base
4. It is in a confirmed stage 2 uptrend
5. It developed a crisp setup during the market correction
6. It has a high relative strength line
Flaw:
The general market is still declining
I'm expecting some positive actions in the upcoming days
BDKR (VCP - 6W 15/5 3T)I bought my positions today
October 1, 2023
The reasons:
1. Low-risk entry point
2. Prior strong upside move
3. Very clear and crisp pivot point
4. One of the leaders in the current market
5. Stock explodes >100% while the market only goes up 6%
6. High relative strength
Flaw:
1. Hard-penny environment
2. Bad close, stock squats after the breakout
I like to see the stock holds up well and perhaps pivot resets.