Elliot Wave: ASX VEA Forming wave 3 at supportASX VEA took support at a long term trend line and forming the potential start of impulse wave 3. Wave 1, 2 and now 3 are longer term wave patterns, resulting in longer term trends with potential ups and downs - impulse and corrections while getting to the wave 1 high initially and then beyond.
VEA
IHDG: A Rising Dollar is No Problem For This Foreign ETFThe US Dollar Index (DXY) has gotten off to a rip-roaring start to 2024. Up more than 2% on the year, the greenback’s ascent comes after significant declines over the final handful of months in 2023. That is usually a headwind for equities, particularly shares of companies domiciled overseas. Not surprisingly, we’ve seen many foreign index funds suffer relative to the S&P 500 thus far in January.
To combat these currency concerns, hedging FX exposure reaps rewards in these environments. The WisdomTree International Hedged Quality Dividend Growth Fund ETF (IHDG) does just that. In addition to mitigating the risks of a rising dollar, the strategy aims to own high-quality dividend growth companies. While this ETF can be a replacement for a high-yield or large-cap position among long-term investors, technicians might look at its chart and see an intriguing development.
My featured chart is a breakout in IHDG. A rally above the key $41 level tells me there is plenty of strength away from the US mega-cap tech stocks. IHDG features a rising 200-day moving average with its price above both the 200dma and nearer-term 50dma. What’s more, following the breakout above $41, next resistance could come into play around its late 2021 highs above $46, while ample volume by price in the $36 to $41 range should offer cushion on any pullbacks.
So, don’t discount non-US equities even as the SPX and QQQ lead the global markets. If the trend of a stronger DXY continues, IHDG may keep on shining versus foreign index equity ETFs.
Falling Dollar Creates Opportunity For Outperformance AMEX:SPY TVC:DXY AMEX:EFA
The opportunity presented by a falling dollar:
These are simple Yearly Candles. The chart depicts how the falling dollar can provide outperformance in foreign equities vs domestic equities. The top chart is simply a chart of the dollar index. The middle chart is EFA vs SPY. The bottom chart is that of the EFA. Take notice as the dollar weakens - represented in the first chart by red candles - that EFA outperforms SPY as denoted in the second chart by white candles. Since 2002 There have been 9 years in which EFA outperformed the SPY. 7 of the years have been associated with a falling dollar. One of the off years was 2005. The dollar was up, but the overall long term trend was still down. The other off year, was this past year. Even though the dollar was strong it peaked in Q4 and fell precipitately into the new year kickstarting new strength in EFA. The 9 years of outperformance generated positive returns in 7 of those years. The 2 years of negative performance were in 2002 and in 2022. Two of the worst years on record risk assets globally.
Those seven years generated returns of:
2003: 38.15%
2004: 17.16%
2005: 11.26%
2006: 23.20%
2007: 7.21%
2012: 14.80%
2017: 21.79%
Average Return: 19.08%
What is noticeable is how strong the returns can be when the dollar enters a secular decline. 2003 through 2007 was particularly outstanding. During that time the dollar fell by roughly 34%. While there hasn't been a secular decline in the dollar since then, I think it pays to keep an open mind to the possibilities.
Funds for the falling dollar: $EFA $VEU $VEA $VXUS
VEA - Buy the Pullback?VEA has strongly moved to the upside, breaking the downtrend line suggesting that the downtrend may have finished. Currently price is pulling back to backtest the broken trendline which may act as a Support Zone. This may provide a very good opportunity to buy the dip around the Buy Zone of $1.850 - $1.920, with a target of the next Resistance Zone between $2.175 - $2.275. I will be buying once bullish price action confirms it with a stop below this swing.
Please note these are my own notes, by no means trading advice. Please do your own research before entering into any trade.
Market-Neutral Pairs TradeSo here we are, S&P 500 at 2,000, bears have good arguments and bulls have good arguments as well. As of right now, I have no idea where equities are going, I'll let the market tell me.
But here is a quick trade idea I got today. By the way, please correct me if there is something wrong in my analysis as this is my first real market-neutral trade that does not involve options.
US equities have outperformed World-ex. US equities for a few years now and I don't see how that trend is likely to stop. The US economy is finally blooming and it seems like things will go well, at least in the medium-term (but that's another story).
So here is the trade: go long SPY and go short VEA. As for how to do this, I believe you would have to short 4.81 (ish) shares of VEA for every SPY you buy. If someone with more market-neutral trading knowledge could help, that would be great. Anyways, just a quick trade idea that exploits an easy trend to follow.
Cheers