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Macro Monday 57 - Venezuela Update ( 5 charts)Macro Monday 57 - Venezuela Update I'll have more charts for you over the coming week but feel this is an important event that could help shape South America's economic trajectory over the coming 5 - 10 years Last week I shared the country that has the largest oil reserves in the world, Venezuela. I noted that Venezuela stands at a critical juncture, with the potential for a historic return to democracy by way of national election on 28th July 2024. Unfortunately, the authoritarian socialist incumbent President Nicolás Maduro appears to have "claimed" victory in the election, amidst many observations of election fraud and interference. At present the people of Venezuela have taken to the streets in protest, are toppling Maduro's statues and demanding him to leave office. Only an hour ago reports of counter forces apparently breached a barricade to Maduro's home. Many world leaders have called out Maduro on what they see as a false election victory. The international pressure is mounting on Maduro's régime. The world recognizes the violation of the peoples choice. The election might look like its a major loss for the people of Venezuela, however it appears to have invoked an incredible revolutionary type response from the people, it has captured the worlds attention, and the attention of the likes of Elon Musk and Javier Milei (Argentinian President) both calling for Maduro's exit. In response Maduro has called out Elon Musk, whom he calls his "arch-enemy" since his post earlier today. Clearly threatened, pressure is mounting on Maduro internally and from the International community. The election results could be the tipping point for the Venezuelans , it appears that change is in the air in and a new dawn is approaching with the world backing the Venezuelans who have clearly had enough. Lets hope for as peaceful a transition as possible. If successful, the country with the largest oil reserve in the world, that was once twice as rich as China, 4th ranked world economy (1st in Latin America), can return to its former glory. If such an event were to unfold, Venezuela, IMO, could lead South America out of a developing economy to a booming one within the decade. Charts in South America Please see South America and all its compressing pennant formations and ascending triangles. Few cup and handles too at present Peru is a clear leader with Argentina, however it does not hold the worlds largest oil reserve like Venezuela which appears to be about to make major political change. Chile - AMEX:ECH Brazil - AMEX:EWZ iShares Latin America ETF - AMEX:ILF MSCI Peru NTR Index (USD) - ICEEUR:MPU1! Argentina - AMEX:ARGT PUKA
ILong
by PukaCharts
Macro Monday 56~Venezuela - Democracy Beacons Economic Reform Macro Monday 56 Venezuela - Democracy Beacons Economic Reform As one of the core members of OPEC, Venezuela holds the distinction of having the largest oil reserves in the world with over 304 billion barrels beneath its surface. This is marginally more than the Saudi Arabia oil reserves. If you ever wondered where the largest oil reserves in the whole world where, they are located on the Orinoco Oil Belt in Central Venezuela. Unfortunately Venezuela has suffered from political and economic factors that hasn’t allowed the country and its people to benefit from this large natural resource. A national election on the 28th July 2024 has the potential to change everything and allow Venezuelans to form a democratic government. This has the promise of leading the country into a new positive social and economic epoch. Venezuela’s oil production plummeted by c.75% over the past ten years, largely due to political missteps. The current administrations illegal expropriations of foreign oil and gas assets were a major red flag for potential investors. Additionally, Venezuela’s poor governance, mismanagement, and U.S. sanctions have contributed to a drastic decline in oil output. In September 2023, Venezuela produced only 735,000 barrels per day, making it the 10th-largest producer in OPEC despite it being the largest global oil reserve. The situation highlights the some challenges faced by petrostates that heavily rely on oil exports and their governance over it. Path to Democracy calls for International Support Venezuela stands at a critical juncture, with the potential for a historic return to democracy by way of national election on 28th July 2024. The opposition has rallied behind a leading candidate, Edmundo González of the Democratic Unity Platform (PUD) for the upcoming national election. He has taken the place of the former disqualified Maria Corina Machado (unfairly ousted by the incumbent). The incumbent President Nicolás Maduro remains a significant obstacle and still gains support from a Chavista Base. The Chavista Base refers to the loyal supporters of Chavismo, a left-wing populist political ideology associated with the late Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez. These supporters are committed to strong socialist ideas, programs, and government style that characterized Chávez’s rule from 1999 to 2013. Despite international pressure, sanctions and disapproval, this group remains fiercely loyal to the Chavista movement and its successor, President Nicolás Maduro. The opposition Edmundo González, has been leading the polls by over 20 - 40 points and thus the people of Venezuela are calling out for change having suffered under the socialist regime. Maduro's regime has arguably eroded democracy and has been the cause of significant economic pitfalls, and social unrest. To support Venezuelans’ fight for democracy, the United States may offer a legal off-ramp for Maduro and his allies, ensuring they won’t face prosecution if they recognize electoral defeat. This approach has worked in other countries like South Africa and Chile, after which both countries could move forward constructively and relatively peacefully. This approach could allow for a peaceful transition to democracy in Venezuela. A democratic Venezuela would benefit U.S. foreign policy, limit migration to the U.S, and reduce the influence of Russia and China in the South Americas via pacts like the BRICS. Previous efforts to achieve the off-ramp approach in Venezuela have failed, however the opposition leader González is ahead in most polls and the election is days away. With some international pressure/support, this could be a major moment for Venezuela, opening up the country and its resources to operate under a free market, allowing for competitive growth, innovation freedom, consumer sovereignty and free flowing export economy. Exports Venezuela is historically highly dependent on its petroleum oil exports. Crude oil, in particular, has been the primary driver of its export revenue. In recent years, Venezuela’s top exports include: 1. Mineral fuels including oil: This category represents 26.1% of total exports. 2. Iron and steel: Comprising 21% of exports. 3. Organic chemicals: Accounting for 9.9% of exports. 4. Aluminum: Representing 8.4% of exports. 5. Fish: Contributing 7.5% to export value. These products collectively account for 88.1% of Venezuela’s global shipments. Notably, mineral fuels (especially crude oil) have experienced significant growth in recent years. China, Turkey, Spain, the U.S., and Brazil are among Venezuela’s main export partners. Blooming Tourism Sector In 2023 Venezuela experienced a remarkable resurgence in international tourism. The country welcomed 1.25 million foreign visitors, marking a 90% increase compared to the previous year when 656,000 people arrived. While specific revenue figures for 2023 are not readily available, this surge in tourist arrivals indicates a positive trend for the Venezuelan tourism sector. I thought id mention just just a few attractions: 1.Angel Falls: Located in Canaima National Park, Angel Falls is the highest waterfall in the world, dropping 979 meters. Best seen during the rainy season (May to November) when water flow is abundant. 2.Los Roques Archipelago: This chain of islands, 160 kilometres north of the central coast, offers sun-drenched beaches, turquoise waters, and coral reefs. It’s a paradise for beach lovers and nature enthusiasts. The Chart Caracas Stock Exchange- BME:IBC Summary I cannot recommend taking an entry on the above chart and regardless, it would be incredibly difficult to do so with sanctions in place and the political turmoil that is yet to be resolved. However, a major date is approaching for the national election this coming Sunday 28th July 2024 , and it could be the beginning of a monumental positive shift for the future of Venezuela’s economy. We can only watch from afar and not forget that this country boasts thee largest oil reserves in the world, has a blooming tourism scene with some of the most unique tourist attractions, and a varied export economy. Somewhere in the future there will likely be great opportunity in Venezuela, however for the moment we await the shifting winds of democracy to catch the Venezuelan sails. Lets see what happens this Sunday. PUKA
I
by PukaCharts
Whales comes into party, Dipping Time?Weekly Time-frame On Friday, Whale Alerts noted a number of large transactions that were being carried out on the Coin-base platform. These transactions consisted of hundreds of millions of dollars worth of BTC being sent out of the exchange. All of these transactions, less than ten in total, came out to a total of more than $1.3 billion being moved out of the exchange in the space of a single space. -NewsBTC This news is fairly bullish for the Bitcoin as whales are starting to accumulate again which means they will Hodl it until the distribution phase kicks in again. 1D Time-frame We are forming an ascending triangle which breakout is bullish. We can expect this breakout in the following days. Price target is a whooping $55,000! We have 3 bulls and 3 bears at the moment so we are expecting this breakout soon, the next pump will breakout this ascending triangle pattern. Area of support or long position is at $38,400! Resistance area is $44,100 if we don't break, expect a retest or formation of support level. 4H Time-frame We area about to break the Cloud Senkou Span A. If we get inside then we enter a neutral phase where we can expect more to the upside. Rejection area of $41,200 where you can open short position. We are looking at double bottom which is supper bullish so we are expecting this breakout soon. RSI is also about to cross the bullish area to. We will discuss more on the possibility on our Live. Stay tune and check with us! Want more insights before US market open? Hit Like, Share, and Subscribe for more daily trading tutorial & cryptocurrency news Trade Scholar, the best cryptocurrency educational community online! Find the content above difficult to understand? Feeling lost about how to trade? Want to learn how to do your Own Price Prediction? We endeavour to share you our investment knowledge & experience in order to help you starting your path to financial freedom. Follow, Subscribe & Join our Community to trade together! Disclaimer: Above Technical Analysis is pure educational information, not Investment Advice. The information provided on this post does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of the website's content as such. Do conduct your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
BINANCE:BTCUSD.P
by Trade_Scholar
When VES, ZWT Crushes, BTC GAIN. How BTC surge on global poorThe main driver of BTC surge is a Zimabawe, Venezuela currency crush. This is a trending and tricky situation making investing in BTC more dangerous. Nevertheless, a further collapse of world currencies due to the crisis could trigger new large purchases of BTC. The recovery of currencies or the speculation of large investors on BTC can lead to a strong collapse of cryptocurrencies, since sooner or later they will fix the profits obtained using an external driver.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by midorinoyama
1
The 12 Apostles of Oil? (the future of “downstream assets")What is the future of the Oil Industry? (A detailed study of Assets) In the oil industry and in “the big-time” cooperate business “masters of business administration” "obese operations world" there is a term called “downstream”. Some companies get so chubby that they essentially dont need any of there sales stores that they actually sell their products in… in the oil industry a lot of companies “don't need gas stations” anymore so they “spin off” what is called their “downstream assets” and basically the gas stations are no longer part of the company. However, there is good and bad sides to this, it makes it easy to “own a McDonald’s franchise” but difficult to do anything “differently” or create “unique competition” with the financiers or the people that gave you the money. And the law is typically behind the “money” and not the people who own and run the businesses day to day. For all practical industrial reasons ConocoPhillips (and perhaps all of the Earths Major Oil Operations) are not an American company or really “any specific” countries company. In fact the complexity of it all may minimizes a lot of the local legal business risks. Perhaps one of the more interesting locations for “western” oil is 26 million square feet of “oil” headquarters in an area called the “Energy Corridor District” of West Houston Texas, The Energy Corridor is a business district in Greater Western Houston, Texas one of the largest cities in America and the location of many major “energy sector companies” operations including BP America, Citgo, ConocoPhillips, and Shell Oil Company and about 300 other smaller companies. Non-energy firms also have a presence including companies like Sysco and the largest company in the area is actually not involved with Oil originally they where a “former deep sea fishing company”. Perhaps the most important strategic locations for ConocoPhillips is in the far north arctic and hot very very way way too hot Houston Texas. I was very surprised at how large the industrial complex was in the far north of Alaska. Before I knew almost anything about ConocoPhillips I was studying “the last and many of the most difficult road to find and get to on earth” and one of them was in the super far north of northern Alaska all the way up very near ConocoPhillips possible Oil Operations. Its one of the only roads in the far far north of Alaska that actually has google street view. One of the reasons I was interested in this place in particular is because Alaska is one of the “best places” on earth to go and “see the northern lights”. My friend told me about this place in the far arctic north of Alaska called “dead horse”… and she told me she use to drive up there when she lived in Anchorage sometimes to go and see the northern lights. She said that the northern lights up there come in all different types of colors. Alaska is one of the earths and Americas last “wild (natural and environmental) frontiers” if you even want to call it that? While I didn’t find any oil operations up there I did find a very small “remote” grocery store that apparently the only way to get food was by “air” and I was kinda interested in “shipping foods” (as a potential business opportunity and foods research) to strange an unusual places like the arctic and the thousands of islands in the deep pacific. Perhaps the most “environmentally dangerous” locations that companies like ConocoPhillips operates are not on land where national governments can visit and carefully regulate and “help” oil operations but the most interesting and dangerous are deep at sea. From what I’ve hearing from someone who works in the oil industry (as a friend of a really good geologist and person who likes to just study the earth for fun) on one of these oil platforms is that there is so much money involved that sometimes its like working on an “extremely dangerous pirate ship operation deep at sea” and its a very dangerous “man vs man” business in the deep sea “some people just don't come back” and the laws and rules are very different when your out in the middle of the sea… and especially on these deep sea oil rigs “if you talk too much… you might die…”? Some of the most interesting and “dangerous” operations are located in a very unusual “side” of north western Australia near a town called “Darwin” Australia. Its rather different in Darwin and a remote northern side and even a little west of the “geological space needle” of Queensland Australia that points into the very large and indigenous “tribal islands” area of Asia Pacific Asia also known as the very special and mysteriously and extremely important geological island of “New Guinea”. Unbelievably off the coast of Australia the company ConocoPhillips was able to essentially “buy” two, three actually 4??! entire fairly large “islands of gas” in the sea… These are not especially “deep waters” they are called “basins”. Two of these islands are called “Barossa and Caldita” in an area called BAYU-UNDAN in the “Timore Sea”… collectively these “islands of petrol gas and oil” are about 50 miles by 50 miles in total and they essentially “own them” through some type of “permits WA-315-P, WA-398-P and TP-28”? There is even a 200 mile “pipeline” in the middle of all this ocean essentially “shipping” the oil from BAYU-UNDAN all the way 200 miles back to Darwin Australia perhaps for “processing”? If your interested in the details of how these pipelines work you should for sure take a look at the ConocoPhillips “fact sheet” from March of 2020 its very interesting to read the details about each location. To work on these types of large oil projects many companies decrease their risk by working with other forging companies. Some of the companies Conoco Phillips is working out in the middle of the south east asian islands includes a lot of companies I’ve never known anything about but are probably very very large or at least have enough money and ability to get “deep sea permits” or make it look like its a “real” permit. Co-Venturers include… Origin Energy (40.0%), PetroChina (20.0%) Santos (25.0%), SK Energy (37.5%) Co-venturer: 3D Oil (25.0%), Co-venturer: PETRONAS (40.0%) Source: Conoco Phillips Corporate “Fact Sheet” March 2020 (PDF) Whats particularly interesting to me as an amateur “arctic researcher” is that “most” or “many” of Conoco’s (easier) operations are located near very very unusual “polar arctic pivot points”. These are areas for example where you can see the “northern” lights a glowing light in the sky or where there is really good “arctic fishing” (like off the coast of Norway) Whats interesting about this “American” company and perhaps many other oil companies is that 50% of all their employees (or technically they dont call them employees they say “payroll”) is say 17% Norwegen, 6% Indonesian, 7% Canadian, and 8% Australian (see website for latest details) There are other very interesting “Conoco” locations off Tasmania … Tasmania is a very interesting point and its one of the most interesting islands on earth for really truly “cosmic” reasons. It “points” to the magnetic fields of the antarctic… For example if you use a “regular compass” on Tasmania the fields point “directly” to the south pole and the location of “magnetic pole”. This is a very very strange island and very very beautiful island too to the “southern magnetic field” or the “real” southern pole. If you have time for sure look up “ The Twelve Apostles” and take a look at the pictures… its an amazing natural wonder of the world that isn’t wildly widely known about. It maybe interesting to see if some of these oil companies might “invest” in building “lookout tours or tours” in the local naturalization parks to help people “see whats going on naturally”… See: Wikipedia "The_Twelve_Apostles_(Victoria)" While there are other “oil” locations that Conoco + Philips is working another very interesting location related to the “magnetic fields” is at the “tail” of Argentina or what you might think of as the “connecting tail” of Antarctica to mainland “South America” (also known as Patagonia)? This oil “field” location is near (on on both borders of Argentina and Chile) its one of the most important famous and amazing “brilliantly” bright light blue melting glaciers. The pictures of this glacier goes on and on for as far as the eye can see and there is a strange “thawing mist” above the glaciers and strange bright blue ice burgs. While I’m not going to focus on “all” the important operations they are ALL very very interesting to study. Because at one time these had a lot of “bio” mass or “fish”. From a financial standpoint the oil rigs off the coast of Norway and in Northern Alaska maybe make the most sense and are the “safest” because they are “on land”. While the others located near the center of all the pacific islands and also “non great barrier” reef areas but “mini pacific island banks basin reefs” these are (Mystical places off the cost of Malaysia, Indonesia and Darwin Australia). These operations pose the most “public” environmental catastrophic risks to both the environment and the actual stock price. And if something goes wrong… few people know about it and yet all the fish know about it. One of the most helpful projects Conoco is working on is actually located in Columbia. Columbia is not just “any country” in south America. Its the “center” of the “bridge” with north america and Central America. Columbia is the only country in all of south America with both Pacific Ocean and Atlantic Ocean “connections” and is “co sponsored” with another company called CNE Oil & Gas S.A. (20.0%). The reason this project is so important to the rest of South America is because its helps with “real” international relations and is maybe the only time people there get to work with people in North America in something other then politics. A project like this also helps to bring “new wealth” to the country. However, Columbia is so important strategically that it maybe “the only hope” for stabilizing Venezuela with all of Central America and even preventing a “price war” over Oil with North America. Its not important to work with North America but it is important to work with modern x-drug lords soon to be “Oil Lords” of Columbia. There are many possibilities of (neighboring) projects even though on a map these areas seem small and insignificant. Some oil “rigs” deep at see cost hundreds of millions of dollars to build and then suddenly sink for “no reasons”… Oil has the power to help develop “big industry” that might help organize other industry possibly including Nuclear Power. So what starts as a simple project in Columbia or even just “exploration” as they call it is VERY important even if its just a 50 mile by 50 mile “permit”. In fact the oil discovered in Venezuela (suddenly became) the largest supply of oil on earth making sailing all the way to Saudi Arabia seem insane when you can sail from Houston to Venezuela almost over night. These projects with companies like CNE Oil & Gas S.A. (20.0%) are extremely complex and not necessarily “American” China and India has Oil needs too? This area of Columbia is “near” the “back door” to the amazon and a futuristic and yet “indigenous” high mountain cocaine tribal culture that may one day “have ideas that will blow everyones minds” about how to work with “natural resources”. For now we dont know what oil companies are really trying to find in the “high mountain areas” like Columbia other then the worlds most important “new sexy hip” former “cocaine drug lords” towns like Bogotá and Medellín Columbia? Anyway, I hope you have really enjoyed and learned a lot from this “story” of Conoco a company that an “American” oil company founded in 1875 as the Continental Oil and Transportation Co. :) Asher
NYSE:COP
by idasuperman
World Cup of Leaders - Road to Disaster or FreedomThere are similarities with Venezuela. It's look like Trump and Israel doesn't wan't to loose power in middle east. They are some good projects like: *new silk road to istanbul *drilling for oil and gas near Cyprus in the near future Battle cards tell you truth. Turkey+Russia+China+Iran have now more power and control in middle east. Trump + Israel have more finance and weapons. 2019/2020 will tell us what will happen next. It's Endgame and there is no more time left to try again. 2020-2025 are critical years for world freedom. Gold, Silver, Crypto will skyrocket this year.
Long
by hypercraft
2
Further increase in oil is questionableThe relative calm of financial markets on Thursday. Important statistics were not published yesterday. There is nothing expected to change the current situation on Friday. So, it means we continue to work in the previous vein. While there is a cooling-off period for the main issues of concern, let's talk a little about the future of the oil market. The International Energy Agency (IEA) drew the attention of oil market participants to the fact that its more than 40% growth in 2019 is entirely due to the supply factors: OPEC +, sanctions against Iran, the problems of Venezuela and Libya - All this contributed to a reduction in supply in the market and higher prices. So,the IEA experts believe that in the second half of 2019 the market focus may shift from the supply factor to the demand factor. And in this case, the situation does not seem to favor buying oil. Recall the IMF lowered its forecasts for the growth rate of the global economy once again. It means a slowdown in oil demand For the oil market. Sum up the demand may not grow strongly enough to push oil prices up in the future. Concern about the failure of the second half of 2019 for oil is increasing by statements from OPEC that the cartel may increase oil production after June. And although the things voiced by the IEA relate to the medium term, it is worth keeping them in mind when making long-term trading decisions. Nevertheless, here and now, trading on the intraday basis is still relevant. But the stops on buying must be set and be made as small as possible. A possible quick correction in the oil market is a reason not only to think about oil sales but also about the sales of the Russian ruble, which recently has greatly reduced the level of correlation with oil quotations, however, it remains totally dependent on asset prices. Moreover, the current price of the ruble is very favorable for its sales. Recall that in addition to intraday buying of oil and ruble selling on all time horizons, we are looking for points for intraday buying of gold, as well as sales of the dollar on almost all fronts (with the exception of the Japanese yen).
by Trade24Fx
AUDUSDlinea de tendencia alcista, con soporte y resistencia. una vez que rompa la linea de tendencia y confirme.. ir a ventas hasta donde está el rectángulo rojo(marqué allí por fibonacci) en dado caso que no rompa linea de tendencia pero si la resistencia y confirme.. ir a compras hasta el rectángulo verde(marqué allí por fibonacci) POSTDATA:Soy nuevo en esto, solo llevo par de meses.. espero criticas constructivas y agradecería que comentaran cualquier error que haya tenido etc.. Muchas gracias!!!
by yisuserious
Possible Scenarios for OILWelcome to this MONTHLY chart showing possible scenarios over the next years, after OIL has bounced once again on the level of $50 in the past months potentially taking us higher near term up to $70. Let us now depict the possible scenarios out of this market, with the conditions that would trigger any of them and some arguments supporting each. The first thing to consider, is that after the bounce at $50 and its current positive trend, it would be very likely that the levels of $70 could be tested before the end of 2019. Given the recent US sanctions against the Venezuelan government, affecting the OIL supply coming from that country, prices might see an immediate fuel until $70 levels are tested. However, if the level of $70 is reached it might be wise to consider that this level has acted before as a resistance and act carefully then. Would see a good long trade only if this level is surpassed, where we could expect prices reaching up to $84 until 2021, where the the next possible resistance is located. Now, given that Oil has seen the surge of Shale Oil increasing the supply in the market, and the fact that at these price levels Shale is pretty much profitable, we could see a downward bounce on the levels of $70, back to $50 by 2021. An added pressure to the downside would be a production adjustment from OPEC, as well as the world's efforts to increasingly develop renewable energy supply around the globe, which would affect the demand for oil in the long run. If we see carefully, a possible head and shoulders could be formed by the fractal formed if the price bounces back from $70, resulting in prices below the level of $50 after 2021. Well, there they are. Two possible scenarios. Upvote if you liked it!
OANDA:BCOUSD
by TradeSniperAI
Is the oil uptrend here to stay? Oil has been on a tear thus far in 2019 and I expect nothing short of a full fledged rally should we break above $58. The weekly and monthly time frames look very bullish, as there's no clear supply levels to overcome. I expect oil to be one of the best performing investments of 2019. With that said, oil is considered extremely volatile and very contingent on geopolitical affairs. A break below $50, and we could witness a drop to the $45 zone. The two biggest fundamental factors driving price action right now is the political turmoil in Venezuela and OPEC's ongoing production cuts.
FX:USOILLong
by en1gm9t-c
DASHEURDASH is fighting around/between 117 - 119 EUR for several days, which is area of previous support/resistance long time ago. DASH/USD chart bellow gives nicer view as it also has more data. Cypher pattern can be spotted here, as is shown on chart. 300% gain is in play here, so don't expect it will reach point D tomorrow (or ever - future is funny thing :) But DASH is spreading around the globe - the last bigger market was Venezuela, where financial crisis is still ongoing (google for stuff). Anyway, regarding trade, I'll set it up like: - entry 118.20 (if it won't come back here, I'm willing to enter at breakout somewhere over 125) - stop loss at 115, bellow previous low with some space to breath - targets: for sure I'll take some profit at respective Fib levels from B to C, but let's see how this will turn out DASH/USD 1D chart for better overview: Disclaimer: this idea is solely for my own purposes, to satisfy the ego, if it will work out ;)
Long
by rludvik