USDJPY- STILL DOWN LIKE WE PREVIOUS ANALIZED
The USD/JPY currency pair has seen significant movements recently, with several factors influencing its expected performance next week:
Current Position and Recent Movements: As of December 14, 2023, USD/JPY stood at 141.986, indicating a decrease of 2.28%. The currency hit a high of 145.995 and a low of 141.832 during this period. Over a broader 52-week range, the pair fluctuated between 127.221 and 151.924, with a year-to-date change of 8.29% and a one-year change of 4.73%.
Influence of Bank of Japan's Policies: Recently, signals from the Bank of Japan about an imminent shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy have strongly influenced the Japanese yen's strengthening against other major currencies, particularly against the dollar. This caused the USD/JPY pair to fall to the support level of 141.63 before recovering. Therefore, the future of the pair largely depends on the central banks' policies, especially from Japan, where markets have long awaited a shift in negative interest policy.
Expectations from the U.S. Central Bank: This week, the focus will be on the U.S. Central Bank's policy announcement, with strong expectations to maintain U.S. interest rates, but there will be attention on the bank's policy statement and expectations report. Monitoring of new expectations for U.S. interest rate levels at the Federal Reserve is ongoing.
Technical Analysis: Technically, the USD/JPY has formed lower highs connected to a trend line that has held since mid-November. It appears ready to test this resistance level again. The Fibonacci retracement tool indicates levels where sellers may be waiting to jump on the downtrend. The 61.8% Fibonacci level nearest to the trend line is around the key psychological mark of 146.00, which might be sufficient to keep gains in check. Hence, the USD/JPY may resume its decline to its lowest level at 141.62. However, a breakout above the Fibonacci levels and trend line could trigger a reversal to the upside. Additionally, technical indicators suggest a continuation of the downward trend, with the 100 SMA below the 200 SMA, confirming a shift downward in the trend or that a sell-off is more likely to gain momentum rather than reverse.
In summary, the future performance of USD/JPY will depend on key factors including the central banks' policies of Japan and the United States, as well as technical signals that currently indicate a potential continuation of the downward trend. The chart reflects this with the price recently testing a key support level and showing a potential for continuation of the downward trend as indicated by the trend lines and recent price action.
A video of my trade made it yesterday at USDJPY
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Like i analyzed before go look my past analysis:
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Venta
USDJPY - BEAR STILL KILLING - But Be CarefullBe Careful with the hidden bulls at this level today Nov 21 2023.
As of the latest market activity, the USD/JPY pair has shown bearish sentiment after moving below the 149.00 level, which is near six-week lows, as per technical analysis reports. It's trading around 149.00 following a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Technical indicators are suggesting that there is a bearish sentiment to navigate.
Further technical analysis indicates that a weekly doji candle at 150.00 has provided a bearish signal, with market events triggering a “risk off” response. This may have been influenced by key US data that is expected later in the week, which will bring both the Japanese yen and the US dollar into focus. The yen is often considered a haven currency and could react to market sentiment and upcoming economic data.
On the more immediate horizon, the USD/JPY has seen sellers push the price back below 140.00, and it is showing an extension of that pullback, testing below the Fibonacci level at 139.59. The price remains above prior resistance with a few notable levels, including 138.75, which was last week's resistance.
The technical outlook highlights a break in the November opening range for USD/JPY, with potential exhaustion or price inflection into confluent support at the 147.68-148 range early in the week. There is also resistance at the weekly open eyed at 149.60, with bearish invalidation now set to the 2022 close-high.
Lastly, the USD/JPY failed to break through the 151.93 key resistance last week and has fallen sharply since. However, the downside has been contained by the 149.17 support so far, and the initial bias remains neutral for the start of this week.
These analyses suggest that traders should keep an eye on key support and resistance levels, with a bearish sentiment currently prevailing. Upcoming economic data releases and market sentiment will likely be significant drivers of the pair's movement in the near term. Investors should monitor these factors closely to inform their trading decisions.
Look my análisis and give me your opinion at comments
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2 OBThere are 2 institutional Order Blocks in the purple area, there are confluency zones in all the area. Buy it or sell it by the candle patrons not just for arriving the area
Hay 2 Bloques de Orden institucionales en el área morada, hay zonas de confluencia en toda el área. Comprar o vender por los patrones de velas, no solo por llegar al área y ponderar el precio