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A Rising Wedge in the XLE is setting up a shortXLE looks like its forming a nice Rising Wedge on the daily chart. The bad news is we're heading into the Summer which usually leads to higher demand, and Rising Wedges aren't particularly good performers from a statistical standpoint. The good news is that they do offer about 2:1 odds of a reversal once the Wedge breaks. In addition, the momentum indicators are displaying significant bearish divergences, and regardless of seasonality, the macro picture is suggesting global slowing of demand for energy. Therefore, the sum of the evidence makes this look like a good short candidate for a swing trade. Where it gets a little more tricky is deciding how to get short. As mentioned above, there's about a 2/3 chance of a reversal. The problem is that historically speaking, the average moves of the reversals (-8%) aren't much to get excited about. Over the next 30 days, the Options market is anticipating about +/ $8.84 of movement. This aligns nicely with the idea of a breakdown from the wedge, which could take price down to the Point Of Control on the Volume Profile aruond $76. All things considered, I like the idea of trading this with a defined risk position like a vertical spread. Something like buying the $80 PUT and selling the $78 in the July 1st expiration. This is trading for about a $0.51 debit and would mature to somewhere north of $1.00 if XLE falls to $76 over the next 37 days. Thanks for reading; all the standard risk disclaimers apply .
AMEX:XLEShort
by InnerMotionTrading
1
Declining Wedge in the S&P 500This is a chart of the S&P Futures (ES!) showing a declining wedge pattern. While technical analysis is admittedly down on the list of my personal trading hierarchy, I think this particular formation is presenting some interesting implications and possible trade ideas. Macro factors not withstanding, I wouldn't be surprised to see either A) more channeling between the 4150 - 4400 range, or B) a relief rally north of 4500 over the next month or two. The Declining Wedge idea supports this thesis... The statistics indicate that Declining Wedges are not a great performer compared to other patterns - and that's ok, because these trade ideas don't need them to be. If we temper expectations and use defined risk, a modest snap to the upside can offer some nice profitable trades. I like to use the "Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns" by Thomas Bulkowski to give my technical analysis some statistical grounding. According to his research, in the context of a bear market (which we seem to be in, at least in the short term), a Declining Wedge has about a 75% probability of making a 5% reversal move, and about a 68% probability of moving 10%. The S&P also currently meets the identification guidelines of a minimum of 5 trend line touches and declining volume (as depicted in the chart). Also note that the Wedge is occurring near the edge of the value area on the Volume Profile. So how to trade it? Since the Declining Wedge isn't a particularly strong pattern, I'd recommend using a defined risk strategy like a vertical spread. Unfortunately due to the current elevated level of implied volatility, vertical CALL spreads aren't pricing particularly well - but here's one: Buy SPY 435 18 APRIL 22 CALL Sell SPY 437 18 APRIL 22 CALL ... this was pricing around a -0.78 Debit... its not a great risk reward, but its viable and fits within the thesis - but what if we dig deeper? Consider for a moment that on a Year To Date basis, the Nasdaq is lagging the S&P. The NQ is rallying considerably this morning, but before the open, it was down by about -14% YTD vs. -11% on the ES. So perhaps if the market bounces over the next month, it will be propelled by mean reversion in the NQ. The NQ is suffering from the same problem as the ES so from a risk reward standpoint, the spread I'd build in the QQQ would follow the same logic as the trade in SPY above - you just might get a little more upside movement in the NQ and thus a little more bang for your buck - maybe... but here's an interesting idea... Can you think of a Nasdaq stock thats been nearly cut in half since the start of the year? Because I can - Facebook. Regardless of the Declining Wedge idea, FB will likely have a vicious relief rally in the coming weeks, if for no other reason than the eventual short covering. I'm very interested in putting on a ratio back spread in FB in anticipation of that move. Something like this: SELL -1 FB 29 APR 22 CALL BUY +2 FB 29 APR 22 CALL ... this was pricing for around a +0.27 credit ... Bear in mind there is a significant amount of risk in this trade with a max loss of about $1,500 per unit. However, the exepected move for FB over the next 45 days is about +/- 30pts, which gives this trade fairly good odds of seeing degrees of profitability over that time - and bear in mind that the profit potential is pretty damn good considering the trade is being done for a credit. Happy trading :)
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by InnerMotionTrading
$BABA high P/L debit spread +170% TP with options #baba #alibabaAlibaba suffered the past one year. My last trade was an $BABA Iron Condor, closed in profit: Now it's time to play for some bullish bounce. Reasons: * Bullish volume, +10% in one day. * Oversold smooth RSI * Reasonable setup before event * Bullish action candle Max profit: $1100 Probability for 50% of Profit: 50% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 170% Req. Buy Power: $396 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 45 (average implied volatility rank) Expiry: 15 days Buy 3 BABA Jan14' 130 Call Sell 3 BABA Jan14' 135 Call Summary, 3 debit call spreads for 1.32db each. Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the red line, max loss in my calculations in this case could be ~$250. Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 3.75cr for each position OR reaching the profit target level ($135 price lvl) - whichever occurs first. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
NYSE:BABALong
by TanukiTrade
1
WMT Weekly Options PlayDescription WMT double rejection off 150, a decisive close below this level triggers a short position. Using A put debit spread, because profits are always limited by time. Put Debit Spread Levels on Chart SL > 150 *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 11/26 148P SELL 11/26 135P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. The long call is placed ATM for higher chance of profit, The short call is placed at the 135 support level. Earnings on 16NOV are a risk factor Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NYSE:WMTShort
by BarnardR
SPY BEAR CALL SPREAD NOV 460/480 VERTICALI shorted on Friday in the November contracts trading $15 OTM for a net credit 4.40. Decent premium for sky high contracts. Target at 50 DMA ~438; expect further bounce from support before the real correction, IMHO; all corrections so far were preceded by double tops. I sold 62 spreads, can add or just hold. I don't recommend this for the faint of heart. Calls should melt on triple witching Friday 20 Aug; note periodicity on the bullish waves up, we due for one now; each bear move has lasted only 3-5 days before bouncing. GLTA!
AMEX:SPYShort
by DaddySawbucks
2
$SPY BULL short put spread 90% PoP, 20% profit #options #option After a beartrap switched back to bullish view with large ETF-s. First of all: SPY Max profit: $204 Probability for 50% of Profit: %90 Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 20% Req. Buy Power: $996 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!) Expiry: 22 days Buy 3 SPY Jul16' 420 Put Sell 3 SPY Jul16' 416 Put Credit Put spread for 0.68cr each. Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 350$. Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 0.24db. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
AMEX:SPYLong
by TanukiTrade
$TAL is oversold, bullish spread with 72% PoP 33% profit #optionLong time waiting for a pullback at this territory.... Today RSI breaking up, volume arrived, but IVR is still very high. Optimal for some credit put spread. Max profit: $250 Probability for 50% of Profit: 72% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 33% Req. Buy Power: $750 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 80 Expiry: 22 days Sell 2 TAL Jul16' 22.5 Put Buy 2 TAL Jul16' 17.5 Put Credit Put spread for 1.25cr each Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 250$. Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 0.44db. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
NYSE:TALLong
by TanukiTrade
1
$EDU short put vertical 73% PoP for credit at support$EDU short put vertical 73% PoP for credit at support New Oriental Education & Tech Group had a big move and a big correction. It's time to playing some bullish move. Weekly timeframe: Oversold on weeky and on daily too, sitting on the bullish trendline. Daily timeframe: Oversold too, bullish divergence. Playing short put vertical here, because IVR is relative high: 60. Max profit: $236 PoP50: 73% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 30% Max loss with my risk management: ~$150 Req. Buy Power: $764 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 60 (relative high) Expiry: 24 days Buy 4 EDU Jul16' 5 PUT Sell 4 EDU Jul16' 7.5 PUT Short put spread for 0.6cr each, because IVR is relative high. COMMENT: Because of very low RSI and daily divergence it could be a good choice into my investment bag/portfolio too. Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 150$. Probability of loss in this way: ~27% . Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 0.20db. Probability of profit this way: ~73%. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
NYSE:EDULong
by TanukiTrade
COINBASE 72% PoP 30% Profit with short put vertical strategy TA at 1HR TF (because this stock is new, no daily history) Quick Coinbase play at high IVR, reasons: - trend changed: higher high , lower lows - divergence at bottom - my strike is last bottom as support- $260 - I have very plenty safety zone - Buying power arrieved as volume Max profit: $220 Probability of Profit: 72% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 28% Max loss with my risk management: ~$290 Req. Buy Power: $780 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 93 (ultra high) Expiry: 38 days Buy 1 COIN Jun18' 250 Put Sell 1 COIN Jun18' 260 Put Credit Put spread for 2.2cr, because IVR is very high. Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 290$. Probability of loss in this way: ~10% . Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 0.77db. Probability of profit this way: ~90%. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
NASDAQ:COINLong
by TanukiTrade
EEM 62% PoP for quick 18% profit spreadQuick option spread play for the next 2 weeks: * 1 year trendline still holding * bullish trend Max profit: $154 Probability of Profit: 62% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 18% Max loss with my risk management: ~$150 Req. Buy Power: $846 (max loss without management at expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 12 Expiry: 13 days Sell 2 EEM May21' 55 Put Buy 2 EEM May21' 50 Put Credit Put spread for 0.77cr each, because IVR is average Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 150$. Probability of loss in this way: ~20% . Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 0.27db. Probability of profit this way: ~80%. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
AMEX:EEMLong
by TanukiTrade
APPLE BEARISH SPREAD with 73% PoP monthly exp.I'm planning to expand in better conditions. Max profit: $186 Probability of Profit: 73% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 22% Max loss with my risk management: ~$220 Req. Buy Power: $814 (max loss without management at expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 7.7 (relative low) Expiry: 44 days Sell 2 AAPL Jun18' 135 Call Buy 2 AAPL Jun18' 140 Call Credit Call Spread for 0.93cr each, because I've f*cked up the side... (angry face) Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be ~220$. Probability of loss in this way: ~15% . Take profit strategy: 60% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 0.47db each. Probability of profit this way: ~85%. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by TanukiTrade
4
Long call vertical spread for Twitter 55% PoPFib 0.78 hit after event, trendline kissed 4 times: 4hr / 1hr TF in oversold territory Max profit: $500 Probability of Profit: 55% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 56% Max loss with my risk management: ~$200 Req. Buy Power: $882 (max loss without management at expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 5.5 (relative low) Expiry: 46 days Buy 2 TWTR Jun18' 48 Call Sell 2 TWTR Jun18' 55 Call Debit Call spread for 4.41db each, because IVR is relative low. Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the 52.5$ breakeven line, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 200$. Probability of loss in this way: ~25% . Take profit strategy: 60% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 6.1cr each. Probability of profit this way: ~75%. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
NYSE:TWTRLong
by TanukiTrade
6
Canadian Dollar short put verticalMax profit: $70 Probability of Profit: 83% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 20% Max loss with my risk management: ~$150 Req. Buy Power: $430 (max loss without management at expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 28 (average at futures) Expiry: 36 days Sell 1 !6CM1 Jun4' 0.8 Put Buy 1 !6CM1 Jun4' 0.785 Put Credit Call spread for 0.70cr each Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 150$. Probability of loss in this way: ~10% . Take profit strategy: 50% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 0.35db. Probability of profit this way: ~90%. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
CME:6C1!Long
by TanukiTrade
GSX short put vertical for high creditSmooth RSI is extreme oversold, and the IVR is ultra high. Obvious bounceback play. Max profit: $240 Probability of Profit: 57% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 47% Max loss with my risk management: ~$200 Req. Buy Power: $510 (max loss without management at expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 88 (ultra high) Expiry: 35 days Buy 3 GSX May21' 17.5 Put Sell 3 GSX May21' 20 Put Credit Put spread for 0.8cr each, because IVR is extreme high. Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 200$. Probability of loss in this way: ~25% . Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 0.28db. Probability of profit this way: ~75%. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
GLong
by TanukiTrade
Tesla Back Testing H&S Break OutHoping to see a bounce off this previous break out of the Head and Shoulder pattern. As long as we close above $700 this week, I think earnings on Monday will bring Tesla back above $800 level. FUD spreading by the media of Tesla's autopilot killing 2 people in their vehicle, experience traders should see this as a buying opportunity. I have bought several more shares for my long term holding plus I still have my $660/$655 Friday Expiry Bull Put spread opened and its printing a nice profit. I did close out my next weeks spread for a loss as a precaution in case $700 support does not hold. I will reopen again once we show signs of a bounce off support.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by WaisTrades
$TSLA bulltrend continues? Long call vertical spread!TESLA smooth RSI confirms the breakout, well defined loss level. Max profit: $165 Probability of Profit: 60% Profit Target relative to my CAP: 46% Max loss with my risk management: ~$100 Req. Buy Power: $355 (max loss without management at expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 16 (relative low) Expiry: 51 days Buy 1 TSLA May21' 595 Call Sell 1 TSLA May21' 600 Call Debit Call spread for 3.35db, because IVR is relative low. Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 100$. Probability of loss in this way: ~20% . Take profit strategy: 50% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 4.2cr. Probability of profit this way: ~80%. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by TanukiTrade
APPLE BULL SPREAD - oversold breakoutHere is some big tech-play. 1) Divergence in oversold territory My Smooth RSI indicator absolutely in the oversold territory, some bullish divergence detected. 2) Momentum confirmed with volume Some buy volume finaly arrived. 3) Parallel charting I love parallel speed-, or trendlines on chart. Now another breakout. 4) Not everything is an utopie The dangerous resistance in background! Previous support could acting as resistance later! CONCLUSION : APPLE DEBIT BULL SPREAD Max profit: $64 Probability of Profit: 70% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 27% Buy Power: 236$ (max loss without management) Max loss with my risk management: ~ 70$ Tasty IVR: 18.8 Expiry: 38 days Buy 1 AAPL April23' 115 Call Sell 1 AAPL April23' 118 Call Long call spread for 2.36 debit Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing below $117 Take profit strategy: I'm taking at the 50% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order. (at 2.68 credit) If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh ideas follow me : @mrAnonymCrypto on tradingview anyway! Recommendation: thanks for @csemez to pointing on this trade!
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by TanukiTrade
S&P500 Long Call Vertical 66% Probability Of ProfitI've played yesterdays some S&P500 with vetical spread. (1) RSI in the middle zone Any direction is possible (2) Forming a bullish triangle - again Similar cases in the past one year: (3) There is a little more space to the upside (4) Relative Implied Volatility is low So I'm choosing a debit strategy. CONCLUSION: I'm using LONG CALL VERTICAL - Buy 1 SPY April16' 375 Call Sell 1 SPY April16' 380 Call Debit call spread for 4.12 debit Probability of Profit: 66% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 21% Max profit: 88$ Max loss at expiry: 412$ (Buy Power) Max loss with my risk management: ~95$ Tasty IVR: 4.8 Expiry: 36 days Stop/my risk management: Closing immediately if daily candle is closing below $379 Take profit strategy: I'm taking at the 55% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order. (at 4.56 credit) If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and follow my fresh ideas ( @mrAnonymCrypto on tradingview ).
AMEX:SPYLong
by TanukiTrade
9
FUNKO LONG CALL VERTICAL: high PoP (66%) and good ROI (30%)Look at that volume in uptrend! Max profit: ......................................................... $113 Probability of Profit: .............................................66% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: ......30% Max loss with my risk management: ...................~ $100 Buy Power: $387 (max loss without management at expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 13 (relative low) Expiry: 58 days Buy 1 FNKO May21' 10 Call Sell 1 FNKO May21' 15 Call Debit Call spread for 3.87db, because IVR is relative low. Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 100$. Probability of loss in this way: ~15% . Take profit strategy: 60% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 4.55cr. Probability of profit this way: ~85%. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
NASDAQ:FNKOLong
by TanukiTrade
5
AbbVie Inc - Long Call Vertical SpreadQuick trade for monday on $ABBV Breakout formation 1) Swing Pivot Last swing pivot breaked at 109$ 2) RSI in the middle zone Many space up and down too. 3) Squeeze indicator On my squeeze indicator "prepare for storm" sign. This in dicator I'm using for predicting any significant move in near future. See examples in the past. CONCLUSION LONG CALL VERTICAL AbbView Inc Max profit: 120$ Probability of Profit: 64% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 31% Buy Power: $380 ( max loss without management) Max loss with my risk management: ~ $140 Tasty IVR: 6.9 Expiry: 66days Buy 1 ABBV May21' 100 Call Sell 1 ABBV May21' 105 Call Debit call spread for 3.8 debit Stop/my risk management: Closing immediately if daily candle is closing below $103.8 Take profit strategy: I'm taking at the 55% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order. (at 3.85 credit) If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW, and follow my fresh ideas ( @mrAnonymCrypto on tradingview ).
NYSE:ABBVLong
by TanukiTrade
DOW JONES debit spread play with good chanceI've opened a LONG CALL VERTICAL spread yesterday end of day for Dow Jones. Correction maybe consolidated, I'm expecting some short squeeze soon. Otherwise the probability of profit is godd, and the trade is manageable because of lower strikes. (1) Relative Implied Volatility is low I'm using my Relative implied volatility indicator to determine the credit/debit type of option trades. Low relative implied volatility justifies debit option strategy (longing options) instead of creadit strategy (shorting options) (2) Neutral RSI - no oversold or overbought Uptrend still holding after a quick correction. My Smooth RSI indicator is in no one's land. There is plenty of room up and down. (3) Observing other Down Jones instrument Every Down Jones instrument pretty same indicator values for RSI and RIV too: DJI, YM, DJIA, DIA CONCLUSION: I'm using LONG CALL VERTICAL - Buy 1 DIA April16' 305 Call Sell 1 DIA April16' 310 Call Debit call spread for 3.92 debit Probability of Profit: 67% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 26% Max profit: 105$ Max loss at expiry: 395$ (Buy Power) Max loss with my risk management: ~120$ Tasty IVR: 3.1 Expiry: 38days Stop/my risk management: Closing immediately if daily candle is closing below $309 Take profit strategy: I'm taking at the 55% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order. (at 4.55 debit) If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW, and follow my fresh ideas ( @mrAnonymCrypto on tradingview ).
AMEX:DIALong
by TanukiTrade
6
[ X ] United States Steel Corp short call vertical spreadLazy day, lazy trade. My Iron Condor Hunter script indicated a potential iron condor for this instrument for the 12 - 23 range. Let's check for the best setup for this signal. (1) Basic TA to background check After a quick TA I judged it too risky, because it limiting the downside potential correction. The script indicated good ranges in the past 4 years, but now I'm a little bit hesitating about the downside move limit. The script shows me 12$ as secury bottom target in the next 30 days, but the lowest low may be ~10$, based the green trendline (2) Murrey Math levels -1/8 and +1/8 are used for some kind of attempt to catch a trend reversal. -1/8 is an extreme support level during a bearish trend , while +1/8 is an extreme resistance during a bullish tendency. A test of these lines indicates that the current trend is weakening. As a rule, the price doesn’t revers here and starts corrections towards 0/8 and 8/8. After that, the previous trend resumes. On the weekly perfectly fit to my Murrey Math Lines Auto +1/8 script. (3) Daily divergence Divergence on daily chart , without any more comment..... Indicated local correction. Breaked down my custom oscillator => correction validated. CONCLUSION : Modifying the strategy from the originally planned Iron Condor to Vertical Spread. Sell 1 X Apr16' 21 call Buy 1 X Apr16' 23 call Max profit: ...... $80 Max loss: ......... $120 IVR: ................... 18.3 Probability of Profit: 73% Expiry: .............. 45days Strategy: Short call vertical Risk management: I'm closing the trade immediately - if the daily bar closing outside my strikes - and I'm cutting my loss. (no matter what I'm believing)- usually I'm losing mutch less than my max profit in this case. Danger zone starts at 20.28$ Profit management: I'm sending an order at the 50% of max profit, immediately after my position opened - as usually.
NYSE:XShort
by TanukiTrade
3
What’s The Best Vertical Spread Option Strategy?I’m Markus Heitkoetter and I’ve been an active trader for over 20 years. I often see people who start trading and expect their accounts to explode, based on promises and hype they see in ads and e-mails. They start trading and realize it doesn’t work this way. The purpose of these articles is to show you the trading strategies and tools that I personally use to trade my own account so that you can grow your own account systematically. Real money…real trades. What’s The Best Vertical Spread Option Strategy? You may have previously heard someone say, “ Vertical spreads are the same as getting weekly paychecks! “ Is that even true? We’re going to go in-depth on each strategy to discuss each of the pros and cons. I’m also going to discuss how each strategy should be used in any given market condition. Since we’ve previously discussed credit spreads and debit spreads, you’re probably wondering… what’s the BEST vertical spread option strategy? Let’s break down each of the vertical spread option strategies in detail and look at examples in Tasty Trade. Call Debit Spread What is a Call Debit Spread? A call debit spread is a position in which you buy a call option and sell a call option at different strike prices using the same expiration date. When should this strategy be used? This strategy is used when you believe the stock is increasing in price, but not a dramatic movement. What are the benefits of this strategy? Trading this position can potentially reduce the overall cost associated with taking on the trade. This type of strategy also reduces the break-even price of the trade. When does this trade lose money? When the underlying stock moves sideways or downward. What is the max risk for this trade? The max risk associated with this strategy is the cost of the premium paid to take on the trade. What is the max reward for this trade? The max reward for this strategy is the difference between the strike price of the two calls, multiplied by 100. Minus the premium paid to take on the trade. Call Debit Spread Example - Reduced Margin Requirement: $910 - Max Risk Reduced: $910 - Max Reward: $4090 Put Debit Spread What is a Put Debit Spread? A put debit spread is a position in which you buy a put option and sell a put option at different strike prices with the same expiration date. When should this strategy be used? This strategy is used when you believe the stock is decreasing in price. What are the benefits of this strategy? Trading this position can potentially reduce the overall cost associated with taking on the trade. This type of strategy also lowers the break-even price of the trade. When does this trade lose money? The underlying stock moves sideways or downward. What is the max risk for this trade? The max risk associated with this strategy is the cost of the premium paid to take on the trade. What is the max reward for this trade? The max reward for this strategy is the difference between the strike price of two calls, multiplied by 100. Minus the premium paid to take on the trade. Put Debit Spread Example - Reduced Margin Requirement: $910 - Max Risk Reduced: $910 - Max Reward: $2090 Call Credit Spread What is a Call Credit Spread? A call credit spread is a position in which you sell a call option and buy a call option as protection. These option contracts have different strike prices but have the same expiration date. When should this strategy be used? This strategy is used when you believe the stock is decreasing in price or trading sideways. What are the benefits of this strategy? Trading this position produces a credit from the premium received for selling the put option. Buying the additional call option provides protection, limiting the risk of the trade. When does this trade lose money? This trade loses money when the underlying stock moves up quickly past your strike price. What is the max risk for this trade? The max risk associated with this strategy is the difference between the strike prices, multiplied by 100. What is the max reward for this trade? The max reward for this strategy is the premium received for selling the call option, minus the premium paid for protection. Call Credit Spread Example - Margin Requirement: $965 - Max Risk: $965 - Max Reward $35 - Premium Received: $35 Put Credit Spread What is a Put Credit Spread? A put spread is a position in which you sell a put option and buy a put option as protection. These option contracts have different strike prices but have the same expiration date. When should this strategy be used? This strategy is used when you believe the stock is increasing in price or trading sideways. What are the benefits of this strategy? Trading this position produces a credit in the form of the premium received for selling the put option. Buying the additional put option provides protection, limiting the risk of the trade. When does this trade lose money? The underlying stock moves downward sharply. What is the max risk for this trade? The max risk associated with this strategy is the difference between strike prices, multiplied by 100. What is the max reward for this trade? The max reward for this position is the premium received for selling the put option, minus the premium paid for protection. Put Credit Spread Example - Margin Requirement: $837 - Max Risk: $837 - Premium Received: $163 - Max Reward: $163 How Do I Choose The Best Vertical Spread Option Strategy? I personally only select options that match my trading plan. You’ve probably heard me say it a million times if you’ve heard it once… There are 3 things you need to know to be successful at trading. 1.) You need to know which options to trade 2.) You need to know when to enter 3.) You need to know when to exit I use the PowerX Optimizer to help me execute these trades successfully.
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by rockwelltrading