Bullish $SOLOAnother EV stock.. A lot smaller and younger than $TSLA.
Bullish flag, waiting for volume increase on daily chart or moving average crossover for entry to buy stock. Possible buy and hold due to current market's sentiment on EV stocks.
While waiting... Short put vertical 6/5 for 01/15 expiry.
Verticalspread
Marriott bullish inclined defensive options - 18 Sep ExpiryRolling on my previous MAR trade that expired on the 28 Aug. I decided to continue with MAR as price on the 25 Aug seemed to be having trouble rising. RSI was also at a high band of 65. Overall, price seemed to be pretty predictable and not volatile at this point.
As my defensive trade is focused on picking off premium. I do not expect price to rise and as such, I structured a bullish inclined trade with a Max gain at strike 109.96 ($1677) and breakeven at 111.27. Hoping that my contracts can just expiry worthless.
If price ranges or goes bearish I will collect est. $1079
Sold 14 Calls @ 0.93, Strike 110
Bought 1 Call @ 2.13 Strike 104
BP block: 13k
SPX Bullish Vertical SPX presenting some good buying opportunities hitting the 50% retraement and 61.8% acting as support. We are in for a corrective pullback, NOT an all out crash.
TevaTeva Pharmaceuticals releases earnings in 6 days on February 11 2020.
Potential Price Support-restance levels. The green box is the current difference maker for the upside, in which they it could aim to create a a 9 week: 13:10 and/or 10-week high 10:81 8 month high:15:44
:12 month: 15:91
The red line is the is still the long term support/resistance. 9.88
BA Friday January 10th 2020BA Boeing possible trend for 2020, following the Iran accident being deemed NOT a mechanical problem, will Boeing's Stock rise? Boeing invited to the rash site along with countries involved and General Electric (GE) and the 737 simulator. many factors to consider.
LONG $FB ~ FACEBOOK~ SETUP USING CALL-SPREAD ~ #OptionsTradingMETHOD: Long FACEBOOK {price at entry 198.39] via:
+2 VERTICAL FB 100 (Weeklys) 27 DEC 19 195/202.5 CALL @3.75 ;
Decay only threatening if losing the trade; 1:1 R:R.
STRATEGIES: Using day chart:
The 20/50 Mean green cloud contracts, and we can look for a new expanding cloud to form for a long from the mean.
The Fisher Transform bounce signal appearing near the mean.
TACTICS: The plan in terms of stock price:
STOP is price < 196
TGT1 202.34 to scale; TGT2 208 to exit
Consider scaling as green cloud becomes large
Consider exiting at 50% max profit
We may let the Fisher Transform and 20/50 mean together take us out technically for whatever we get win or lose.
Will update in comments,
B3
d^.^b
LONG $AMT ~ LONG SETUP via SELLING PUT SPREAD ~ #OptionsTradingMETHOD: Long AMERICAN TOWER {price at entry ~ 215.60} via:
-2 VERTICAL AMT 100 (Weeklys) 27 DEC 19 220/212.5 PUT @4.20 ; !! may be tough to fill !!
Trading @ medium IV so going for a positive R:R play
Decay helps if price > 216 and hurts if below;
STRATEGIES: Using AMT day chart:
The 20/50 Mean looks set to make a green cloud after mean crossed.
The Fisher Transform line signaling an oscillation long.
TACTICS: The plan in terms of stock price:
STOP is price < 212
TGT1 220 to exit (5:3 Reward:Risk)
Consider exiting at 50% max profit ($840/2) or better
We may let the Fisher Transform and 20/50 mean together take us out technically for whatever we get win or lose.
Will update in comments,
B3
d^.^b
$COST ~ COSTCO~ SHORT SETUP USING PUT SPREAD~ #OptionsTradingMETHOD: Short COSTCO {price at entry ~ 292} via:
+2 VERTICAL COST 100 (Weeklys) 27 DEC 19 300/292.5 PUT @5.00 ;
Trading @ low IV after the earnings dump;
Decay helps if price < 294;
Sold high extrinsic put to buy high intrinsic put
STRATEGIES: Using COST day chart:
The 20/50 Mean looks set to make a big pink cloud after a long chart runup.
The Fisher Transform line signaling a continuation short.
The last earnings bailing of stock price turned out to last a few days.
TACTICS: The plan in terms of stock price:
STOP is price > 295 (MUST OBEY, Upside down R:R trade)
TGT1 288 to scale; TGT2 286.25 to exit (NO EARLY EXIT, Upside down R:R trade)
Consider scaling as pink cloud becomes large
We may let the Fisher Transform and 20/50 mean together take us out technically for whatever we get win or lose.
Will update in comments,
B3
d^.^b
Closing Bull Call Vertical SMG, Nearly Max ProfitWe are closing out our 90/95 bull call spread, earning a debit of 4.99 by selling the 90 Cs and buying back the 95 Cs. We have made a profit of 49.7/contract, with a maximum potential profit of 50. The potential possible gains of holding the position are nearly negligible, so we are taking the successful trade and closing it out now, to best preserve strong risk/reward characteristics.
Below, we've attached our methodology for why we took the position initially. We sat the vertical below the market, essentially betting on the market staying above a place it already was very far above. This is one of our favorite strats, and has proven profitable often, despite the natural consequence of having to risk an amount significantly larger than the potential reward.
-- Jan 20, '19 --
" We are bullish on both the technicals and fundamentals of SMG . The multinational corporation, known for its consumer fertilizers and pesticides and new expansion into hydroponic equipment for the marijuana industry, has been trading in an up-channel. 2019 Q2 earnings beat estimates, with EPS of $3.64 (.22 above forecasts) and a top line of $1.19 billion (greater than the estimated $1.16 billion). The biggest growth opportunity is in its Scotts' Hawthorne subsidiary, which provides various products (hydroponics, fertilizers and lighting systems) to the cannabis industry. "
bear flag on AIG and subdued volatility: put debit spreadAIG currently is trading with an IV30 of 19.6, making its IV Rank 21.8. This low rank indicates that the options will be cheap, and encourages debit spreads, regardless of being bullish or bearish. These spreads will profit when volatility mean-reverts to higher levels.
Because of this well-developed bear flag, we are expecting a continuation of the prior downtrend, thus reversing the immediate uptrend characterized by higher highs and higher lows. To profit off of this, we are doing a put debit vertical by longing the July 26th 54 puts and writing the 53s, for a max potential profit of 41 and capped potential loss of 59, per contract. This is particularly cheap because they expire prior to the expected earnings announcement on August 1st, '19. The break even price is 53.41 because it is being done for a debit of .58. There is max profit below the short strike K = 53.
DETAILED TA & FA for SPY June 29 296/297 Bear Put SpreadWe are taking a bearish position in SPY, S&P 500 ETF that represents 1/10th of the broad-market SPX. We are taking a bearish positions for both fundamental and technical reasons.
Our position is a bear put spread with expiry this Friday. We are writing the 296 puts and buying the 297 puts for a total debit of .73 per contract. Per contract, the max profit is $27 and the max loss is $73 if SPY finishes above 297 on Friday. This position has defined risk/reward characteristics and is -120 deltas.
Technically, there is a clear descending triangle. Descending triangles during downtrends serve as continuation patterns. When the price breaks through the support, it is best to take a short position, if there is a volume confirmation (done on high volume). This just occurred, thus we are initiating our position with a SPY price target of 290.82 (a drop of 92%, the height of the descending triangle formation.
This movement is confirmed by the negative and diverging MACD, Parabolic Stop and Reverse indicator above the candles and a DI- above the DI+ on the ADX.
Fundamentally, geopolitical tensions are escalating as the U.S. takes a hard line on Iran and China. Iran has announced that there is “no longer a path of a diplomatic solution” with the American President as Pres. Trump imposed sanctions yesterday. Mnunchin followed Trump’s lead and indicated that financial sanctions will be imposed. This leads to increased instability, and as the market is trading near all-time highs, would interfere with the bull run. U.S. officials also downplayed expectations from the Trump-Xi G20 meeting, which could have dire bearish consequences.
BA July 355/370 bull debit vertical spreadThis technically-driven call debit spread on Boeing entails buying a 355 call and selling the 370 call, both with standard july expiry. The cost of taking this position is a debit of 6.35, making the break even 361.33. This is slightly below the long term support levels, and the resistance of the upper boundary of the horizontal channel, which will become a support after it is penetrated. The lows from March 22nd and April 10th were both roughly 362. Once this was penetrated the stock has traded in a horizontal range. This support around 362 has been tested a couple times; this makes it stronger when it is finally broken through. Also, the 50 day simple moving average is at 365, and the 200 simple moving average is at 363, further strengthening this area of support. The maximum profit for this trade is reached at the strike of the written call, 370, and is the difference between the strikes minus the debit (15-6.35= 865/contract). This trade is 18.91 deltas positive per contract.
Preparing for March 11 earnings week (ULTA)
- Earnings on Thurs after close
- Nearing its ATH at $322 (Nov 2018)
- Cramer is bullish
- 1 year chart uptrend is very good
- The question is if it can break the ATH or not
- What is different now than it was in Nov 2018?... Maybe the market is healthier overall
- It is trading above the VWAP and the SMA is in an uptrend
- I am bullish here and would think about doing a vertical spread at the money $305/$310. This would be a rather conservative strategy, in case there is a pullback at $322. I do not see the stock plummeting very far either, seeing that it's been growing so steadily in the last 1 year.
Looking for EWZ to retrace as it should. Patience on re-entry.Trading EWZ with options.
Calenders and Verticals in specific.
looking for a retrace so im open ended on the position to the down side.
Im long term Bullish.
Short term Bearish.
Also note, if retracement actually matures, it will leave a bearish formation producing resistance levels.
The market will have to fight back a little harder to bring back the current high levels.
GL luck all
Chevron, CVX, Bull Put, Credit SpreadI am not licensed or certified by any individual or institution to give financial advice. I am not a professional Stock trader.
Chevron (CVX) gapped down today, big time; but it couldn't break the 100 Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). If you look back to October 27, 2017 (see the purple arrow I inserted on the lower left of the chart to mark the date) Chevron did the exact same thing. It proceeded to go back up. I think it will repeat itself in the coming days. It used the 100 Day to bounce and will go back up. I typed up the strategy I used for this play and you should be able to see it on the chart. The 200 Day EMA is sitting just above $118.40ish giving this play more than $4.00 of cushion. Additionally, next week is a short trading week in the United States due to markets being closed on Monday in observation of Memorial Day. That means this Stock has four days to not go down more than four dollars, and the Credit from opening the play is kept. Yes, you could tighten the spread; but having the 200 Day EMA adds a little protection, and I'm still learning how to do Spreads. :)
AEP - May '18 Exp. Put Vertical Credit SpreadTrade details:
65/60 Put Vertical Credit Spread @ $1.00
Prob. of Max Profit = 70.13%
Prob. of Max Loss = 10.10%
Break-even @ $64.00
119 D.T.E.
Trade plan:
Entry by oversold + support/resistance analysis
Expecting $68.00 support level to survive possible test before earnings report next week for an uptrend continuation before May '18 expiration.
Using longer duration for some more premium + allow for adjustment if trade goes very wrong.
Expecting spread to expire worthless but will take early profit + place new trade with same bias around earnings if IV swells premium up enough to give a greater edge.
Getting short in BABA (Vertical Spread)This is a directional play, BABA looks over extended and I think we will get a move back to the 20 EMA or even lower sometime between the next month. So I sold a Call vertical spread for $2.25 ea.
This is a directional play and is basically a 58% probability of making money. Our max loss is $275 per contract and max win $225. Will look to close it early.
The trade: (Vertical Spread)
-1 175 Call
+1 180 Call
58% probability
XLK - Feb.'18 Exp. Put Vertical Debit Spread (Hedge)Trade details:
66/61 Put Vertical Credit Spread @ $1.82
Prob. of Max Profit = 4.90%
Prob. of Max Loss = 29.12%
Break-even @ $64.18
51 D.T.E.
Trade plan:
Straight up hedge against technology sector/semiconductor industry (NVDA + AMAT long put credit spread positions - both are linked below).
Feb.'18 expiration chosen to focus on Feb.'18 earnings reports for both NVDA and AMAT in case of strong downward plunge in technology sector.
Trade approaches 50/50 play from this point on since break-even price is the same as close price for the day.
Expecting spread to expire worthless if price falls between break-even & $61.00 by expiration, but will take early profit (and re-establish position if necessary) if there is an early move to ~$62.85 level.
COP - Feb.'18 Exp. Put Vertical Debit SpreadTrade details:
57.5/50 Put Vertical Debit Spread @ $3.01
Prob. of Max Profit = 10.86%
Prob. of Max Loss = 34.02%
Break-even @ $54.49
50 D.T.E.
Trade plan:
Entry by overbought status + indication of correction/mean reversion analysis.
Expecting pullback to moving average (VWMA) before earnings report in Feb.'18 for profit on weakening uptrend as seen in both Daily + Weekly charts.
Expecting to take quick profit at $53.70 level + will re-establish position if quick profit is possible.
Expecting to hold spread through earnings + allow spread to expire worthless if reversal is strong.
Adjustment will be made if the position goes strongly opposite past $56.40 resistance level.
CRM - Jan.'18 Exp. Put Vertical Debit Spread Trade details:
105/98 Put Vertical Debit Spread @ $2.69
Prob. of Max Profit = 13.29%
Prob. of Max Loss = 35.05%
Break-even @ $102.31
28 D.T.E.
Trade plan:
Entry by overbought + mean reversion signals
Expecting for pull-back to the $100 level well within the at-the-money straddle expected move by expiration.
Expecting to adjust aggressively to minimize loss if price moves above $106.50 level.
SPY/QQQ - Feb.'18 Vertical Spread Pairs Trade (QQQ side)Trade details for QQQ:
159/149 Put Vertical Debit Spread @ $2.97
Prob. of Max Profit = 18.00%
Prob. of Max Loss = 43.96%
Break-even @ $156.03
52 D.T.E.
Trade plan:
QQQ identified to be overbought + sign of weakness compared to recent rally.
SPY & QQQ are highly correlating, with QQQ as more volatile mover (suitable for debit spread).
Feb. expiration has sufficient premium for credit spread + room for adjustment during trade if needed
Built credit spread in SPY + Built debit spread in QQQ
For QQQ debit spread:
Expecting QQQ to breach $152 level by expiration.
Expecting to possible adjust with naked put or put vertical spread if market rallies strongly to breach & stay above $160 level.
Max risk reduced by 12% from SPY side of trade with market rally.
Unlikely max profit of $703 if market plunges to $149 level.
Check SPY side of pairs trade for more information.
AMAT - Apr.'18 Exp. Put Vertical Credit SpreadTrade details:
47/42 Put Vertical Credit Spread @ $0.98
Prob. of Max Profit = 69.49%
Prob. of Max Loss = 13.53%
Break-even @ $46.02
114 D.T.E.
Trade plan:
Similar bias as NVDA trade (check it out below).
Entry by oversold + support/resistance analysis
Expecting $48.00 support level to survive possible test before earnings report in Feb.'18 for an uptrend continuation before Apr.'18 expiration.
Using longer duration for some more premium + allow for adjustment if trade goes very wrong.
Expecting spread to expire worthless but will take early profit + place new trade with same bias around earnings if IV swells premium up enough to give an edge.
SPY/QQQ - Feb.'18 Vertical Spread Pairs Trade (SPY side)Trade details for SPY :
261/258 Put Vertical Credit Spread @ $0.37
Prob. of Max Profit = 79.79%
Prob. of Max Loss = 12.62%
Break-even @ $260.63
52 D.T.E.
Trade plan:
QQQ identified to be overbought + sign of weakness compared to recent rally.
SPY & QQQ are highly correlating, with QQQ as more volatile mover (suitable for debit spread).
Feb. expiration has sufficient premium for credit spread + room for adjustment during trade if needed
Built credit spread in SPY + Built debit spread in QQQ
For SPY credit spread:
Expecting SPY to expire worthless IF market rallies with no consolidation + $37 profit will lower QQQ max loss ($293) by 12% before any QQQ adjustments
Max risk ($263) in SPY is possible with strong market plunge, BUT QQQ profits will cover that sufficiently in that case.
Check QQQ side of pairs trade for more information.
