The dollar surge takes a breather, pullback pending?We finally saw the USD rebound I was beating the drum about back in September. But now it's hit a decent resistance zone, I weigh up its potential to hold its ground or producer a deeper pullback. Markets covered include the USD index, EUR/USD and gold.
MS.
Video
Why the US dollar bear should tread with careThe USD saw a sharp reversal higher despite a 50bp cut, simply because the markets were positioned for a more dovish dot plot. I have argued in prior analysis the USD exposure is a bit stretched over the near-term, so perhaps shorting the USD is getting a bit stale. We also have several key markets at inflection points after a risk event. Matt Simpson takes a technical look.
Bears wade into crude oil futures: CL1!An influx of short bets against WTI crude oil futures is behind the recent leg lower for oil prices. But having already fallen nearly 14% over eight days, bears may want to tread carefully with a fresh catalyst. Matt Simpson takes a look at the weekly, daily and 4-hour chart alongside large speculative positioning.
Gold, copper, silver: A hard or soft-landing conundrumMetals were all lower on Tuesday as investors braced for a hard-landing scenario. But not all metals fell equally. We take a look at gold, silver and copper to sort the longs from the shorts, depending on which variant of an economic landing we could be facing.
EUR/USD to tag 1.11 before its next leg lower?It is good to finally see the USD strength we were calling for finally come into play. It may have a little further to run, which could see further downside on the weekly chart for EUR/USD. But first, we look at a potential long on the daily and 4-hour chart, taking the weekly analysis into account.
SP500 seasonality and market positioning are at oddsOn one hand, seasonality for the S&P 500 and indices in general tends to be unfavourable in September. On the other, asset managers are 'all in' being long the index which sits just beneath its record high. We weigh up the competing factors to decide whether we should tread carefully around seasonality, or simply ignore it.
MS
USD/JPY could be at the early stages of a reboundPicking inflection points is not for everyone. But taking into account the two months of heavy USD selling, disapproval of a 'strong yen' from the BOJ and arguably oversold USD/JPY, perhaps some bullish mean reversion is due.
We take a look at the monthly, daily and 4-hour charts to show key levels.
USD bears! Markets don't move in a straight line (forever)We stand back to admire the long-term chart of the US dollar index, and yes there could be further downside over the coming weeks. But a quick check on the daily timeframe makes us wary of jumping into an already well-established short, given potential support levels nearby and the fact everyone and their dogs seem to be bearish the dollar.
Why the 'record high' on Dow Jones underwhelms...Another day, another record high for a US stock market. Only the one seen on the Dow Jones underwhelms given it is not backed up by its own futures market, let alone its peers. We're also approaching end-of-month flows (which can prompt fickle price action). And keep an eye on the Nvidia earnings report on Wednesday (US) which can single-handedly drive sentiment on Wall Street.
Is the USD selloff too aggressive? Bond yields suggest soTraders continue to sell the US dollar in anticipation of a dovish speech from Jerome Powell on Friday. To the point where we wonder if this could be a case off "sell the rumour, buy the fact". Matt Simpson takes a quick look at the USD dollar index and bond yields.
ASX 200 mimics Wall Street's 'risk-on' rally into Jackson HoleOverbought indicators are of little use when markets are obsessed with rate cuts ahead of a key fed speech. Jerome Powell will speak at the Jackson hole symposium and Friday, and expectations for a dovish show are high. And that's helped Wall Street indices extend gains and the allowed the ASX 200 to tag along for the ride. But if this turns out to be a classic 'buy the rumour, sell the fact' tale, traders may need to factor in some of the overbought clues on the daily chart.
EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD levels into US PPI, CPI and RBNZTwo key inflation reports for the US and a potentially live RBNZ meeting over the next 24 hours has put EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD onto my radar. And in each case, these markets have risen to interesting levels which hint at a weaker US dollar over the near-term. Part of this may be because traders are front-running weaker US inflation data.
If the RBNZ treat markets to a dovish cut, it could make for the more volatile move out of the three pairs, whereas weaker US PPI and CPI could help EUR/USD have another crack at breaking above 1.10.
USD/JPY bull flag forms at extremely oversold levelsBy Monday's low, USD/JPY had fallen -12.5% from its July high and the daily RSI (14) had reached its most oversold level since 1996. And with a bullish inside day on Tuesday with a potential bull flag forming on the intraday timeframe, dups look good over the near-term for bulls. Whether it can truly capitalise on any decent rally depends on appetite for risk in general, but for now we look at a cheeky long.
GBPCHF - Detailed Video Analysis Around Resistance📈📉Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📚 As long as the resistance holds, we will be looking for sell setups on 1H.
📚Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good Luck!.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Goldmine for breakout tradersMorning folks,
So, it seems that "222" Sell last time was not a bad idea at all. Despite that BTC stands in rectangle we've got two nicely looking downside bounce. Now we have some nuances with the BTC performance, but to keep it simple it is mostly suitable for those who like to trade breakouts.
If you do not want to wait a bit for clarity on daily chart, in what direction market still will follow, but want to trade today we could offer you few options.
First, is, if you want to bet on upside breakout and take long position - try to do it as closer to the rectangle bottom as possible. For example - it is nice "222" Buy is forming and almost ready to go.
The opposite is true for bearish position. Now we have no patterns, but they could appear later.
Finally, for the breakout, if you do not care on direction. The simplest way to act is to use Stop Sell and Buy orders at once, placing them just outside of rectangle. When breakout happens, you just cancel the opposite order. That's all.
I mark today's idea as "neutral", because it is volatility-based.
BTC - new ATH - Detailed Video Analysis 📹Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📚 Here is a detailed update top-down analysis for #BTC.
📚Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good Luck!.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
ZOOM Backwards, minus Z, plus N equals MOON (Moon Math edition)Lines labeled.
Watch Trends.
Note Daily Time Frame.
Personally, I like 103 on a potential move to the upside.
There is a possibility of some small downside in the short term, but it's a favorable buy if you're bullish on Zoom.
Gap closes just over 100, I believe, so I'd use caution at that point.
I could see something like this if it wants to ride those short term trends upwards.
Breakout over this trend is likely to cause the higher price targets.
ZOOM OUT (lol, puns)
Weekly view.
RSI is the thing to note here. 74 vs 72 looking at a bounce, If you don't know indicators, this simply implies bullish still, it can break down pretty easily, but it needs to close the week that way.
This allows for a bigger view, which helps show how the price can justify such large swings.
Extreme lows are 14 and under.
BTC - Top-Down Analysis 📹 2023 =>2024 Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 Here is a detailed update top-down analysis for #BTC.
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and Why?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good Luck!.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Short Video Conclusion On EUR's Retracement ☄️Short Video Conclusion On EUR's Retracement
Video Content:
Dear Viewers, it was one of my first EURUSD video analytics. On TradingView, you can see a verified timestamp of 01 December. You might also remember the original video when I shared the signal.
I'm happy to announce the idea completed its Target Price. Your profit is the difference between these two levels. It's about two and seven percent. With a $100k investment, the trade returned $2700. The price has been consistently following the expected trajectory. So, we can't talk about about any significant drawdown.
I thank you for your attention, and congratulations if you share a similarly profitable vision.
Market Devlelopment:
I still have a bearish vision on EURUSD. I expect yield seeking on USD can pressure the EUR price as down as $1.067. I believe that trendlines in the video are still valid. I wouldn't open a short here, but I'll keep the short I already have extended with a trail profit, which was my stop loss I moved down as the price smoothly followed the expected trajectory. I consider it as a take profit because the trail profit will close the position any moment. However, I can't tell the exact price yet because the bearish outlook persists. It's either +2.7% or more.
Beyond Video:
It is not an investment advice. Do your research. Do not trade if you do not understand.
- Ely
EUR's Retracement: ECB indicated Yield-Seeking on USDWelcome Investors, Dear Esteemed Viewers,
Technicals
Today's the 30 of November, and EUR's uptrend suffered a breaking. Technically, it means the downbreak of the rising dotted purple trendlines. This technically important price action aligned with a bearish cross on RSI and a bearish daily candle. The target price of this bearish setup is about $1.082, and then, I would re-assess the indicators for signs of possible support. In a bearish scenario, the next target could be $1.051.
News
Beyond technicals, the European Central Bank (ECB) has been cautious in raising interest rates to combat inflation, in contrast to the US Federal Reserve's more aggressive tightening cycle. This divergence in monetary policies has made the USD more attractive to yield-seeking investors.
In the near future, EUR might follow AI's investor sentiment analytics and the bearish technical setup, but if you actively trade EUR, you might want to commit yourself to continuous research because the landscape can sharply change.
Disclaimer:
It is not an investment advice. This idea is my personal opinion. Do your research.
Kind regards,
Ely