Can Nintendo's Next Move Redefine Gaming Again?In the high-stakes world of gaming entertainment, Nintendo stands at a fascinating inflection point. With a 69% profit plunge and declining Switch sales, conventional wisdom might suggest trouble for the Japanese gaming giant. Yet, history shows that Nintendo often thrives most when challenged, using periods of transition to revolutionize how we play – just as they did with the Wii's motion controls and the Switch's hybrid concept.
The company's current strategy reveals a sophisticated understanding of modern entertainment ecosystems. While managing the sunset of the Switch era, Nintendo is simultaneously expanding its reach through Hollywood partnerships, innovative hardware accessories, and digital services. This multi-pronged approach suggests that Nintendo's vision extends far beyond traditional gaming boundaries, potentially setting the stage for a more comprehensive entertainment experience.
What makes this moment particularly intriguing is Nintendo's proven ability to create new market categories rather than just competing in existing ones. As the company prepares to announce its next gaming platform before March 2025, the real question isn't just about new hardware specifications – it's about how Nintendo might once again reshape our understanding of entertainment. With its rich IP portfolio and history of innovation, Nintendo appears to be orchestrating not just a product launch, but potentially a new chapter in how we interact with digital entertainment.
The coming months will reveal whether Nintendo can once again transform challenge into opportunity, as it has done repeatedly throughout its 134-year history. For investors and industry observers alike, this represents more than a financial turning point – it's a window into the future of interactive entertainment.
Videogames
$RBLX - Roblox Bear CaseRoblox problems
1. MMO Platform - Admin cannot faithfully & confidently moderate the expansive player base. Although majority of incidents will remain isolated & unheard of it's only a matter of time until a full scale youtube expose campaign runs viral through the inter webs & presents a critical flaw in the chainlink of Roblox accountability + safety.
2. The annual revenue, cash flow, debt, etc do not correlate to neighbouring assets of similar market caps.
3. They are currently experiencing problems with in game ad placements uk.themedialeader.com
4. There is no plausible route to a higher multiple of profitability.
In my personal opinion the following scenarios could occur to generate more cash.
- Malicious Membership System
- Overindulgence in Ads
- Sale of stock
- Investor Capital ( Debt + )
Those 4 options although temporarily provide cash relief will not solve the problems outlined above, particularly the issue of disparity when it comes to market cap & $$ etc.
In summary a strong bear case can be made for $RBLX.
These MMO platforms are profitable as companies & often thrive under small private team management VS large scale corporate structure ( See Club Penguin history )
Free money shorting post election Nov - Dec 2024 until Nov 2025 ( 1 year time frame ).
$45 -> $16 approx.
$GME: Bullish Deep Gartley Trade Idea Remains ValidEarlier, GME hit the Stoploss level of the Previous Chart Idea, but it did not make a new low and has since gone back to the 0.886 PCZ level and is making a Second Level of MACD Bullish Divergence as a result. Due to these factors I think that this Bullish trade Idea is still alive and upon zooming out I can see that this could be a more Macro Double Bottom that could set us up for a Bullish Dragon Breakout in the coming weeks. If we break above the trend line we could see a rally to the 0.618 retracement, which would be a doubling of the current price.
#EAElectronic Arts ... what if NFT!? Mega freaking rising wedge, if it does breakout the pump could be massive, a la NVIDIA.. What could be the catalyst I wonder... what if will announce NFTs? High risk high reward play, watch for the market and a possible correction in the next weeks. Time frame uncertain, could be weeks..or longer.
PT:170$
Stop loss if breaks major trendline.
All major daily EMA at support. It's make or break.
Versus Systems is tempting a strong support levelIt has been bouncing off the 200 daily candle EMA since March. I do not think it will break that support and start a downtrend, on the contrary, I consider it to be a good entry point.
"Versus Systems Inc is a Canada based company. The company is engaged in the technology sector and is developing a business-to-business software platform that allows video game publishers and developers to offer prize-based matches of their games to their players. "
NASDAQ:VS
Overpriced - insane price - more than 2 of the largest publisher45bn makes it more expensive than Electronic Arts and Ubisoft combined.
In no way does the fundamentals make sense for the market.
Roblox 1.5bn revenue, EA 5.5bn/yr, Ubisoft 1.7bn/yr.
Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc with a market cap of 18.984B, has the highest grossing game of all time , some of the greatest IP, many partnerships with sports . 3bn revenue/yr.
I explained, Roblox is now a public company, to my brother, and he could buy it with his allowance, and he could be rich if the company gets more players... He plays roblox all the time. He said people will stop playing it in a couple years probably, and it's too hard to setup where as something like minecraft you can just play. A consistent game where you can code stuff, or you can just play.
If you're a gamer and you've seen roblox, it's lesser of a game than Garry's mod.
Minecraft sold for 2.5bn to Microsoft. Roblox being 45bn makes no sense. It's a single SKU business.
At current prices, Roblox is a meme stock for boomers who know nothing about the industry, they just see their grand kids play the game and blind people who think the share price matters... I've seen a penny stock with a market cap of a bn, the company does literally nothing, people just see "oh it's a penny it will go up eventually]. Not looking at the Market Cap. That company just had a 7m share split, the split was 50x 70x 20000x.
a day or two more, and then bounce upwe are testing the lows these days
indicators are at 0 level and ready to bounce up
its an NFT token i know
Cyberpunk 2077: Bagholders are suing!What a terrible game! People have been comparing it with GTA, Saints Row, and other games from 15 years ago, and they have more detail, much better AI, much better animations, than this overhyped mess they worked on for 8 years.
Even lego has better AI and animations.
In Cyberpunk you fire at police they do not react. Some animations are here, and they all look the same so you end up with 20 NPCS doing the exact same thing at the exact same time it's actually scary, very troubling.
There are plenty of videos of it circulating, it is just so bad.
As you can see the share price of this success story (until recently) has been going up in a straight line:
They have been making great games (and profits) on budgets and on a valuation that were not collosal, I do not know what caused them to release this crap, but it's possible they come back, it's just 1 failure.
Maybe the hyped company is overvalued anyway, P/E has been at a factor 1000 for a really long time, it was only a buy because of the linear trend.
A 90% drop would not even be enough for a 50% retrace. And if that happens it will be really ugly and not as interesting on a chart perspective.
So maybe better to avoid (bad valuation + bad chart = nothing left).
It could bottom here and then go up (with a big effort on their part) and continue the trend but I'm not sure this happens.
There are plenty of videos of people of this company that are lying, real lies. They spent a long time hyping the game and not just overselling it but really lying about what's in it.
So now americans have sued the company, whose shares are available to them via these tickers:
Here this page includes what I think is the first class action lawsuit against them:
www.polygon.com
So... Are there any really good games at the moment, like The Witcher? Any great game come out of nowhere with a freshly listed developer/publisher?
All I noticed myself was (all in euros):
Quantic Dream (2010 : Heavy Rain, 2013 : Beyond: Two Souls, 2018 : Detroit: Become Human). They are a (french) private company. Revenues 2017 10MM 2019 14MM.
The british guy with a history chanel on youtube that made the Sniper Elite games and owns judge Dredd rights. Private company. 300 people, no idea about revenue.
Asobo Studio (A Plague Tale : Innocence). Another french private company. Revenues 2017 10MM.
CD Projekt has >1000 employees (the french companies have 180 each), their revenue is 100MM.
Take-Two Interactive (Rockstar, GTA) has 5000 employees and their most recent revenue is 3 billion $ (300 million usd net revenue).
Maybe CD Projekt was too small for such a big project? They made the Witcher, and the french companies made good solid games (but not giant) with far less money & people.
Well the companies that made Saints Row had maybe 100 people, maybe even less. Who knows how much they outsourced?
Meh I really can't tell how this works. Much easier to look at their past results to project in the future, and it is also pretty easy to see when everything will go wrong, but I don't know enough to predict what will happen based on the company fundamentals themselves.
With covid the successful game Plague Inc has had a great success, they made another game but wasn't that interesting.
Who knows what company will go public next, who knows what will happen, how do you hear about them? It seems to me one needs to be attentive and quite specialized for this. I remember hearing of The Witcher but I did not know CD Projekt had gone public until years later and I had better things to do than follow their trend.
More than 10 years ago I was still studying and not trading at all, I had no experience, and I knew with absolute certainty the company Jowood would collapse, and soon, and it did!
So it is possible. And there are some easy bets with gaming companies (perhaps hedge funds do not take them seriously ==> there is not that much competition).
Hey hey hey, with all the independant game devs, especially all the many steam games being made, this is happening:
Not surprising at all. The golden era just started, so this could keep going up. Could risk it (1%), could wait and join the trend if there is one.
At the same time if we are close to the US total collapse you might want to wait a bit.
Not that easy... Once the collapse happened and there is a NWO (Europe? China? Middle East?) with everyone finding their new place, things will be more clear for a long while.
Might want to wait for all this to happen before really investing in anything. Till then it's just quick bets for me.
GME: Highly Shorted Name That Has Exponential Upside Potential GME ripped to the upside (44%) when it announced its revenue sharing with MSFT. I believe that the highly short brick and mortar is poised for another breakout to the upside once it breaks out of its trading channel. I want to buy Jan/Feb 21 $15Cs. I want to be a buyer of those calls when the stock is trading below or around $11.
TakeTwo maybe taking a break #stocksDespite having a bullish bias in the overall market, I will always look for potential short opportunities to offset long equity exposure. TTWO looks like it might be a decent reversal play to the downside after breaking the uptrend line that comes from the previous range breakout. I am not bearish on he company or the video game sector, but there is always sector rotation and this stock could be a victim in the near term. It was definitely a COVID play but as vaccines are being distrusted, there could be a little less demand at the margin for video games even if the secular trend is still positive. Not sure if we will retest the range high and I am not sure if I want to hold the short into earnings but to sell here with a stop above the highs at 212 might be a trade worth taking
GME Rises from the Dead - 12/14 - 12/31 Possibilities NYSE:GME
If you look at the historical option flow, from 12/10-12/12, two day after earnings missed, bearish sentiment started to decline.
12/11 option flows seem bearish but if you look at the put orders, it looks like the MMs are expecting a top of around 15 ish, bottom around 13 ish, and hedging with 8-9 ish.
In the darkpool, from 12/09 - 12/11 GM had about $20+ million worth with a spot price of $13.29-13.95.
Using the squeezer momentum divergence oscillator, GME topped out on 11/30, firing a squeeze point, and fell to a rounding bottom and into a rectangle consolidation channel, firing a second squeeze point.
Why the Dip?
GameStop Corp reported second-quarter earnings that came up short on both revenue and EPS estimates.
What Happened
GameStop reported second-quarter revenue down 26.7% year over year to $942 million. Lower store base and lower store operating days contributed to same-store sales down 12.7% in the second quarter.
“The second quarter saw strong progress toward our strategic initiatives, fueling an 800% increase in global e-commerce sales, a $133.7 million reduction in SG&A and a significant improvement in our balance sheet with $735.1 million in cash at quarter-end,” CEO George Sherman said.
Quarterly losses of $1.40 per share missed the analyst consensus estimate by 37 cents.
Why It’s Important
E-commerce growth of 800% year over year was the bright spot in the quarter and represented 20% of total net sales. GameStop was able to see 90% fulfillment rates within 24 hours of customer orders.
EA - Trendline break and moving average crossoverElectronic Arts NASDAQ:EA is showing a potential bullish turn. As shown in the chart above, the downward trend line with multiple touches have been broken with enough momentum for the moving averages to crossover. The stock may pull back to the moving average in the short term providing a bullish opportunity to go long.
Sea Has a Bullish TriangleSea Ltd. Is one of the biggest companies people have never heard of – especially after this year’s big run from the $40s to the $180s.
The Singapore-based esports giant had a $90 billion market cap last week. That makes it comparable with Target (TGT) and CVS Health (CVS).
Trend followers may eye the chart for continuation higher into yearend. The first key feature is an ascending triangle that’s taken shape since early November. Roughly $187 is resistance at the top of the pattern.
Second, SE closed at $156.53 on November 10, slightly lower than its October 30 level. However, prices instantly snapped back the next session and have remained above those levels since, resulting in a false breakdown.
Third, the bounce occurred at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which SE has remained above since.
Finally, the stock has fought back above its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) and stayed there for more than a week. That could be a sign it’s ready for another push higher.
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