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EUR's Retracement: ECB indicated Yield-Seeking on USDWelcome Investors, Dear Esteemed Viewers, Technicals Today's the 30 of November, and EUR's uptrend suffered a breaking. Technically, it means the downbreak of the rising dotted purple trendlines. This technically important price action aligned with a bearish cross on RSI and a bearish daily candle. The target price of this bearish setup is about $1.082, and then, I would re-assess the indicators for signs of possible support. In a bearish scenario, the next target could be $1.051. News Beyond technicals, the European Central Bank (ECB) has been cautious in raising interest rates to combat inflation, in contrast to the US Federal Reserve's more aggressive tightening cycle. This divergence in monetary policies has made the USD more attractive to yield-seeking investors. In the near future, EUR might follow AI's investor sentiment analytics and the bearish technical setup, but if you actively trade EUR, you might want to commit yourself to continuous research because the landscape can sharply change. Disclaimer: It is not an investment advice. This idea is my personal opinion. Do your research. Kind regards, Ely
Short
by Elysian_Mind
Fundamental Shifting of USDJPY's Risk Sentiment Pressures PriceGreetings, Fellow Traders, Technicals and Chart Explanation Indicators Trendline: A trendline is a diagonal line connecting at least two price points, typically peaks or troughs, to determine the overall direction of a trend. In this case, the downward trendline suggests a prevailing bearish trend in USDJPY. Resistance: Resistance is a price level where upward momentum is likely to stall or reverse. In the USDJPY chart, the identified resistance level could act as a barrier for the price to break through, supporting the bearish outlook. Downward Pressure: Downward pressure refers to the selling force driving the price lower. In the USDJPY chart, the repeated instances of price retracing toward the trendline and resistance level indicate ongoing downward pressure from bears. Double Top Pattern: A double top pattern is a bearish reversal pattern formed when the price attempts to break upward twice but fails to surpass a previous resistance level. The double-top pattern observed in the USDJPY chart suggests a potential reversal of the upward trend and a continuation of the bearish trend. Target Zone: A target zone is a price range that a trend is expected to reach based on technical analysis. In this case, the lower target price at $145.16 represents a potential area where the bearish trend could find support. Forecast: A forecast is a prediction about the future movement of a price based on technical analysis and market sentiment. In this instance, the forecast suggests a potential continuation of the bearish trend in USDJPY, with the price potentially reaching the lower target zone. Chart As a discerning observer of market tendencies, I've identified a potential double top pattern on the USDJPY chart, preceding the recent bearish price action that gathered momentum and drove prices towards lower targets. This observable pattern, depicted above the candle formations, harmonizes with the prevailing downward trendline. Repeated instances of downward pressure exerted by bears, symbolized by the red circles, have guided the USD's descent toward this trendline. Currently, I discern a price range confined between resistance and the lower target price of $145.16. Therefore, I anticipate the potential continuation of this bearish trend. News and Fundamental Analytics Japan's Economy Stagnates as Yen Rebounds: Japan's economy, the third-largest in the world, grew at a mere 0.2% annualized rate in the third quarter of 2023, falling short of expectations and indicating signs of stagnation. This subdued economic growth could weigh on the Japanese yen, potentially further weakening USDJPY. US Economy Faces Recession Fears: The US economy has exhibited signs of slowing growth, raising concerns about a potential recession. If economic conditions in the US deteriorate, the dollar could lose its appeal, contributing to a further decline in USDJPY. Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Risk Sentiment: Geopolitical tensions surrounding the war in Ukraine and other global conflicts have dampened risk appetite among investors. This risk-averse sentiment could drive investors towards safe-haven assets like the yen, further weakening USDJPY. Technical Indicators Signal Bearish Momentum: Technical indicators on the USDJPY chart, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), suggest ongoing bearish momentum. These indicators could provide further confirmation of the downward trend in USDJPY. Please note that these observations are intended for entertainment purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. It is crucial to conduct thorough research and make informed decisions when managing your investments. Warm regards, Ely
Short
by Elysian_Mind
2
Video - Powerful EUR Fundamentals - AI suggests Technicals AlignGreetings, fellow investors, and welcome traders! I t's a video tutorial to share the knowledge behind my charts. If you're tuned, I'll continue sharing follow-up AI and FOREX content because there's much to learn from each other. T oday, I'm excited to share with you a fascinating generative chart I've created using a deep learning neural AI. This advanced technology enables us to analyze historical price data and identify potential future price movements. I t's a bullish trend, with daily candles aligned in an upward trajectory. I've initiated a long position at the support level, and our AI analysis indicates the potential for further growth up to the resistance level. While we might encounter a slight pullback below the double resistance, it's important to note that investor sentiment doesn't suggest any significant bearish signals. S tay tuned for follow-up content where we'll delve into more trading scenarios and strategies. It's not an investment advice. Kind regards, Ely
Long
by Elysian_Mind
2
XauUsd Gold Long Analysis Lofi vibes 🧐Munufacturing data on Wednesday and Inflation data on thursday is going to bring some xtra volatility as this week sets off. 0:0 Monthly timeframe, time to Sell Gold late to the party? 2:40 Weekly timeframe 4:09 Daily timeframe Key Levels 1826$ Weekly Level 1820 Daily level 1810$ Weekly Level 1925$ Daily level -Gold Daily engulfing candle Confluence -Weekly Support Zone -Profit taking after 9 Bearish candles in a row and inflation news threatens pullback -Candle finally closes bullish but it's because of NFP as a catalyst
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ShrewdCatfx
EurUsd Strong as ever after botched ADP data ⚖️Solid Daily candle closure after not great ADP data. 0:0 Monthly timeframe 3:05 weekly timeframe 4:50 Daily timeframe 8:16 4hr timeframe 11:45 1hr timeframe Not surprised.. Also not surprised to asian session move back to the highs from NY session earlier today. These are signs of bullish strength for EurUsd. We just recieved a solid 4hr candle lose with Asian session. Market structure filled to bullish with NY along with the Daily closure. We still have NFP data but it's in 32 hours. We may observe an increase prior to NFP and that's what I'm looking for on EU. Few key level's we have here 1.0575 Daily level 1.0543 weekly level 1.0527 4hr level 1.05023 4hr level 1.0491 1hr level 1.04608 Daily level
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
Understand Session to Session Behavior🏺EurUsd 1.It's early in the week 2. Alot of volatility already this week for EurUsd 3. Daily candle closed with no bottom wick denoting exhaustion 4. Asian session continuation to the downside here coinciding with daily support level 1.04627 0:0 Monthly timeframe 2:47 Weekly timeframe 4:51 Daily timeframe 6:52 15m timeframe 8:04 4hr timeframe 8:52 1hr timeframe We moved down quite a bit today! Took some sells during NY session and jumped on the train to the downside. Is it a surprise that Asian session has continued that descent? We are at almost 2x ATR for EurUsd regarding the volatility today. London Session usually does some fakeout behavior and will likely retrace to gather some liquidity here.. There is always fomo liquidity in the market and my trading system depends on it.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
EurUsd Change of Character 🔔Hello everyone so off to the races here with another week in the markets. 0:0 Monthly timeframe 2:59 Weekly timeframe 6:38 Daily timframe 9:10 4hr timeframe 12:08 1hr timeframe 12:50 Bias My Analysis today is derived from the close of the Septmeber Monthyll candle. We observed the September monthly candle pull back up into the close with (2) Bullish Daily candles leading the way. Combine this with the fact that the Weekly candle last week closed above our Weekly/Monthly support level at 1.054. We currently are about 26 pips above our weekly support level and I can visualize price facilitating a move up from within this area. With that said, we have manufacturing in the coming session with the data expected to increase slightly but still contract overall ( which makes me more bullish on Eurusd). If I'm wrong then we will see a move back towards 1.054 Weekly support level and fail to hold it with NY session as a continue momentum on higher timeframes back to 1.05 daily support and psychological level.. What are your thoughts on the coming sessions? Thanks for joining me today
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
Monthly Candle pulls back for Closure? 🌛 EurUsdEurusd no mercy for the Monthly candle closure here. 0:0 Monthly timeframe 1:41 Weekly timeframe 3:57 daily timeframe 5:51 4hr timeframe 7:49 1hr timeframe 8:01 what happened during today 13:40 Bias for upcoming session Today we observed a V-Shaped recovery on Eurusd fueled by missed GDP data. We can also attribute the pulback to an over-extended DXY, profit-taking, and Fomo liquidity chasing the market down... Please let me know if you caught this retracement which I called out in my previous analysis about 24 hours ago. With that said, I'm anticpating an increase into the close of the monthly candle. I believe it can continue to pullback and create a larger bottom wick. The current size of the bottom wick on eurusd on the Monthly timeframe is 86 pips. Today price pulled back up and closed a solid bullish candle back above the weekly timeframe support level at 1.054 which was our original bearish shorts target on the week. To end the week, I wouldn't be surprised to see another bullish push after that bullish daily candle close that we observed today. This bullish push could extend to 1.06071 1hr resistance zone. We have clean traffic up to that level .. a 28 pip clean range. inflation data not expected to chang eover the previous data point.. could be catalyst to continue to pullback to the upside but if we are wrong.. it may act as a catalyst to pull back down towards 1.054 weekly support level or 1.053-1.052 area.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
1
Dancing into the Monthly Candle Closure 🩻AudJpyIn our last Analysis, we Called out Longs on AudJpy on Sept 3rd and we can observe a phenomenal 180 pips increase in price since then. 0:0 Monthly timeframe bigger picture 1:37 Weekly timeframe 4:45 Daily timeframe 8:11 4hr timeframe 11:19 1hr timeframe 12:30 Bias Audjpy increased during the Month of September. At ShrewdCatFx, we were able to anticpate this increase by observing where candles close. Specifically, the weekly candle to close the month of August was especially telling of potential upside. This candle was the tell, thats it. Price has been trending up on Higher timeframes (Monthly/Weekly) ever since the pandemic. We have bullish market structure on the Monthly timeframe... and so when we got confirmation of a flip to bullish market structure on the weekly timeframe .. that was our hint. We'll have to see how this September monthly candle closes in comparison to the monthly resistance level that we are currently testing at 96.135. If we close above = confirms for more buys in October. If not, then we observe Audjpy go into a range to begin the 4th quarter 2023'.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
1
EurUsd Dives to the Sea Floor?🌊 🤔Despite missed consumer confidence on Tuesday, Eurusd has been tanking and continuing the higher timeframe momentum. 0:0 Monhtly timeframe 2:56 Weekly timeframe 4:55 Daily timeframe 6:50 4hr timeframe 8:55 1hr timeframe 12:40 Bias We may also observe that the market is pulling down into the close of the monthly candle. The same concept which you may hear me talk about with the weekly candle pulling down or pulling bak into the close of a weekly candle.. just on a larger scale. The Monthly candle here has pulled down 165 pips into the candle close vs on the weekly timeframe we may observe a 40-80 pip move into the candle closure. Now we have seen quite the move down and there were a few traders looking to take longs at the beginning of the week, little early but i think the time is nearing for a possible pullback with london or NY session. This is because we observed quite a large volatile move to the downside. Asian session has pulled up when typically it has been pulling down across the past few days.. foreshadowing possible retracement. Either way, flexibility is one of the best qualities to exercise as a scalper. We will be open- minded and patient with entries and exits when approaching risk. We have reached a psychological number and this coincides Eurusd approaching the lows of the year at 1.08486. Our next tsrgt for shorts is 1.04609 daily level. Our retracement target is 1.05419 or 1.056 4hr resistance level. GDP is anticpated to be good for the USD so this could provide a catlayst for a bear continuation. If it misses , then we may anticpate a retracement. This is the logical approach, but we all know the market isn't always logical but often irrational. If you've read this far, leave a comment and a rocket and I will see you in the next analysis. Cheers.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
4
Momentum in a Bearish market 🪜EurUsdWhen the Market trends down, support zones become resistance zones after candlestick closure confirmations. 0;0 Monthly timeframe 1:15 weekly timeframe 4:15 daily timeframe 9:00 4hr timeframe 11:45 1hr timeframe 14:00 Bias If you are new to the markets, that last sentence is probably a bit confusing. But really all it sums up to is that the market moves down in methodical steps. This may not always be the case however... Similar to a ladder and different from a silde. The market will drop suddenly and slide deeply in a panic similar to the Stock market crash of 2020 with Covid-19. All support level's failed and liquidity was swept through due to a change in fundamentals. The forex market has much more volume and therefore will not slide as easily vs the stock market which runs on lower liquidity. We are talking about medium-long term slides across days and weeks or even months. In the short term however, fundamental releases can cause the FX market to slide 10's of pips in a matter of seconds. Being inclined towards a scalping style, it is especially important to be aware of these short term slides which could wipeout a sizable portion of a trading account. Price action to begin the week: Weekly level 1.0663 is especially relevant and may facilitate a selloff back to the lows 1.0613. If we do push higher, we may tap into 1.0691 daily resistance level before seeing more selling pressure. 1.054 is the weekly bearish target for this week and our first stop will be 1.0576 daily level where we may observe some profit taking. Bullish targets on the week include 1.075 daily resistace zone. For this scenario, would prefer a daily closure above 1.0691 daily level.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
2
Make the opponent flinch, and you've already won - Musashi 📼 The market has been relentless to the downside over the last 2-3 months. 0:0 Monthly timeframe 2:00 Weekly timeframe 5:35 Daily timeframe 8:45 4hr timeframe 12:35 let's zoom out a bit 12:30 1hr timeframe 15:15 Bias Fueled by Inflation data and technical confirmations, the market has continued is descent time & again. Tuesday Wednesday and thursday have closed bearish. We have established momentum in the market and I believe it is likely that we contiue on this path to end the week. The weekly can may continue to pull to the downside as it is currently bearish and has a 77 pips top wick. The thursday daily candle closed bearish and we have a wick to go fill with momentum. The market set itself up early in the week as it was bullish on monday and observed bullish impulses on tuesday and wednesday. Thursday saw a continuation of the bear momentum established on wednesday and I believe we may also see a continuatiion on Friday. It is easier trading with the trend.. and they do say .. the trend is your friend. With that said, we must remain flexible when trading the markets and our success across time realy depends on our ability to adapt to the changing market conditions.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
1
A Bearish squeeze 🐻 unfolding or too hopeful? ❌EurUsd Buyers in La la land or are we onto something here? 0:0 Monthly timeframe 2:10 Weekly tiemframe 5:26 daily timeframe 7:34 4hr timeframe 10:25 Let's talk interest rates 12:30 1hr timeframe At times the market has coincided it's bottom or top with a News release. Today we have the September Interest Rates release as our fundamental catalyst for a potential bearish squeeze. We have 9 Bearish candles in a row. I was wrong last week about EurUsd longs so maybe I'm at fault here and this scenario is a long shot, no pun intended. We saw Profit taking on Fridaylast week and the market inched to the upside. On Monday we saw a clean range followed by a breakout to the upside on the intra-day timeframes during NY session. Today we observed a breakout to the upside once again with London Session. When NY session came around , price said " Not Yet" as we have Interest rates coming up and it was not the right time. We just ranged today prior to interest rates as one could expect. What I'm looking for is a move prior to news or a wick with news between 1.064 daily support level and 1.066 weekly support level preceding an increase back to 1.075 Daily resistance Zoneish. Not anticipating a rate hike or a rate cut as things will likely remain unchanged as we've already observed the fastest rate hike ever.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
2
Some retracing in store? 🏪 EurusdAfter monstrous gains last week from EU bears, is the time up ? 🕓 0:0 Monthly timeframe 2:21 Weekly timeframe 5:28 Daily timeframe 7:00 4hr timeframe 10:27 1hr timeframe There are a few scenarios that we can observe here for Eurusd this week . 1. Eurusd Pulls up prior to Interest rates ( Stays above 1.065 Daily support zone) and continues to retrace with Interest rates remaining the same or cut 25 points 2. Eurusd Pullback early in the week( 1.0706 & 1.0754) as we are currently observing which precedes a continuation to the downside (1.0608 & 1.055) with Interest rates as the catalyst 3. Eurusd rate increase and EURUSD bearish Continuation towards 1.055 Monthly/weekly support level So price has continued to retrace EUR rate increase, PPI, and retail sales data from last thursday. Consumer sentiment on Friday was not great for USD and price retraced in favor of EUR as well. It's a sort of change of character as sellers ( USD Buyers) do not appear to be in control. Sometimes when you observe a short or medium term top or bottom formulate in the market, it begins with a blowoff push in the direction of the trend. This blowoff is great for those trading with the trend, but if those traders don't Take Profit they go into denial as price retraces and retraces against them. This move on thursday 9/14 is a 100 pips blowoff that may act as our catalyst for a short-medium term reversal in the market.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
1
Anticipating the next Move 🚤 EurusdAnticipate the next move beginning with a Top-Down Analysis followed by looking through the lens of price action. 0:0 Monthly timeframe 1:10 Weekly timeframe 2:35 Daily timeframe 6:36 4hr timeframe 8:30 1hr timeframe 11:20 upcoming news We have alot of rejections at 1.07 Weekly support level beginning from last tuesday. This weekly support level is also a Monthly support level. The Daily timeframe flipped to bullish market strucutre on Monday and still maintains that stance. Though, one could argue that we are simply ranging now. We have higher lows and Higher highs on the 1hr/4hr timeframes. CPI inflation data today pulled price back down to retest the weekly support level once more at 1.07. To be exact it touched into 1.071 but I still count that. Yesterday and especially today price respected what was our previous resistance zone 1.0727 but has now turned into a daily support zone. CPI increased for the second consecutive month and we are moving away from the Fed's target of 2%. That is good for the USD and the higher timeframe momentum favors USD. Given this, we are at a key level on the monthly and weekly timeframes. Volatility has decreased ever since we tapped into the key level's. Also, these fundamental releases act as a short term reversal for the market.. another confluence. Really in trading it's about combining multiple confluences to increase the probabilities for a trade idea.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
Seen this Story before ... 🔖Following price action versus what you think price action will do are two completely different concepts. 0:0 Monthy timeframe 0;47 Weekly timeframe 1:52 Daily timeframe 3:52 4hr timeframe 5:46 1hr timeframe 6;40 Bias for upcoming Understanding these concepts to their core has cost me. I have benefited though from reflecting on the outcomes of these two concepts. Price action will often times clue you on what will happen next. To listen to the price will take time and because you will be inclined to impose your beliefs on the market and invest your energy into solving, well, the wrong problems. Observing where candles close and understanding the nature of volume surrounding 1hr and 4hr candle closures is very important. These concepts make up the core of intra-day trading in the forex market. With that said, I am anticipating a bit of a retrace towards our previous daily resistance zone that may facilitate more longs. Our previous daily resistance was 1.0726 and it can now be characterized as Daily support since market structure flipped on the daily timeframe to bullish.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
2
When the Price Action speaks, Listen! 🔉😼Price reacted off of 1.07 Weekly support level for 2 days before punching through it with New York session Open today boosted by positive USD unemployment data. 0:0 Monthly timeframe 2:21 Weekly timeframe 5:29 Daily timeframe 9:25 4hr timeframe 11:06 1hr timeframe Price printed a Daily bearish candle today and tapped into Extreme Daily Lows at 1.0688 Daily support zone. It is extreme daily support zone because price bounced 590 Pips off this area last time price was here. The Daily bearish candle today closed above the Extreme Daily lows. Yes the weekly candle is bearish at the moment, but I would not be surprised to see the Weekly candle pullback, and create a larger bottom wick to end the week. Calling the low has a good Risk/Reward and some people are good at spotting mean reversion trades. Be flexible because if the market continues to trend lower, we want to capitalize on that momentum. Interestingly enough, I'm looking forward to this mean reversion trade because of the News catalyst Unemployment Data. News releases can also provide the catalyst for a short term bottom and top in the markets. A good example of this was on June 27th earlier this year. After the news, a short term top was formed and price pulled back 100 pips. Anticipating something similar here.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
2
Eurusd New Month .. New Lows to 1.07? 🛎️Traders! (≖_≖ ) we haven't seen a steady trend like this with 7 weeks of the same candles since June 2020. 0:0 Monthly timeframe 1:35 Weekly timeframe 5:13 Daily timeframe 7:25 4hr timeframe 9:46 1hr timeframe 11:30 Bias Hello traders. Yes, we did just create a daily support today at 1.0773. However, this support was created during a Bank Holiday and if you've hung around the block long enough in forex you know that Bank Holiday's have low volume and we should acknowledge them accordingly. If we do end up curling back to the upside here on Eurusd we do have 2 clean ranges on the 1hr and 4hr timeframes so long as we get above 1.08. With that said, the market is not random and we must act accordingly as we may coninue to descend into the depths below as we have been for nearly 2 months now. It is important to be flexible at times this . Bulls and Bear got thrown around last week with a early in the week Bullside push followed by a continuation of higher timeframe momentum to end the week, that also coincided with decent NFP data that was released better than expected. It is possible that we will soon touch into the next daily support level 1.0744. Momentum is still prevalent and so we must allot to it our due diligence.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
Weekly Candle closure suggests Upside / AudJpy 🛩️Hello Traders! A different post today as we are talking about AudJpy when we usually share our thoughts on EurUsd. 0:0 Monthly timeframe 2:53 Weekly timeframe 6:35 Daily timeframe 8:52 4hr timeframe 12:30 1hr timeframe Yen pairs have a bit of a different personaility then when it comes to trading Eurusd. The moves can be alot more harsh and unrelenting. For example trading a yen pair it may be the case that we don't recieve a retest when in the process of breaking out. Versus on Eurusd we may see a retest and price will respect level's in a more clean fashion. AudJpy previous weekly candle closed bullish above the previous weekly resistance level created during the 2nd week of August at 94.107. This confirms a change to bullish market structure and potential upside this week back to 94.69 Daily resistance zone and 95 4hr resistance zone. Our previous weekly resistance level at 94.119 which we closed above last week may now turn into a weekly support level and facilitate a move to the upside. Other key level's include Daily support level 93.559, and 4hr support level's 93.9 and 93.73. Aud Interest rates have been increasing since May 2022 but observing the Weekly timeframe, not much has happened with regard to the strength of the AUD on this pair. Interest rates are anticipated to be released tomorrow 4 hours after asian session open and it may act as a catalyst to observe a continuation back up towards structural highs at 95. Otherwise we may observe a decrease back towards 93.559 and a failed breakout to the upside on the Daily/Weekly timeframes.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
2
The Previous Week / Fundamental Releases and Price Action 🕋In this video we start by observing the movement of Eurusd from a top down perspective. We eventually break down the week's fundamental news releases and their impact on price behavior on the 1 hour timeframe as this is the bulk of the video. This week we went up and they came straight back down. Fundamental news releases played a suspicious role in the price behavior this week and we investigate their significance.
by ShrewdCatfx