WALL STREET (DJI)- VIRAL WINTER IS UPON US! 😨I issue a stern warning to permabulls who are on DJI! Your time is over.
The chart shows possible further break down of price.
For probably the first time in history markets are suffering supply-demand shock. That means most things that are manufactured will be in short supply and low demand. This is due to:
1. lockdowns of consumers across the whole world,
2. restricted transportation,
3. serious interruption of supply chains,
The economic impact is severe. Travel and leisure industries have been hit hard. Airlines are about to go bankrupt, automobiles sales have been damaged, there is significantly lower demand for energy (oil, gas), medical equipment and supplies for hospitals have been affected. Food supplies are running low.
The COVID-19 is has effected a VIRAL WINTER upon the whole planet. This is analogous to a 'nuclear winter' (without radiation fallout of course).
The world is 'freezing up'. It will take a long time to unfreeze. Economies of many countries are being severely damaged.
The Federal Reserve in the USA and umpteen central banks have coordinated to make monetary and fiscal interventions; throwing trillions of dollars at 'the viral effects'. This will not unfreeze the supply-demand conundrum. It simply cannot. How? Because the problem relies on real people and movement of goods, services and international trade. The USA-China trade deal is basically on hold.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Virus
Feeling some bullish vibe on USDCHFI know FED is playing big moves ahead so far to prevent the State from the pandemic before it may cause more disruption around the country. The reason is beyond technical analysis for me to think even slightly how this pair might gonna end up trending upward. The big moves which I'm talking about from fed were the double rate cut within a month and some repo market actions. They aren't taking things slightly any more the moment when they decided to drop their benchmark rate around 0%-0.25% and some big Qe plans coming later. I know most of global central banks honchos are too serious about this pandemic at this moment and Fed has already shown us the real action lately which should slowly help to resolve the issue which had generated by that pandemic "coronavirus" within the state and its economy. Lastly don't forget about Swiss National Bank Intervening to Weaken Franc on recent data from the central banks. They just don't like their currency to get overvalued for various reasons. These conditions let me assume this pair may probably make some new swing highs.
Apenas o começo da crise...Durante a crise de 2008 nós tivemos uma retração de 60% do último topo até o útimo fundo, enquanto que até agora presenciamos uma retração de de 40%, ou seja, ainda temos um terço do total para percorrer caso a situação se repita. Conquanto, deve se levar em conta que esse bear market está sendo ocasionado por uma pandemia, isto é, não sabemos exatamente até quando a situação irá se perdurar.
Outra situação é o retorno até a média de 200 períodos, não completando 60% de correção.
XAU USD 14 March 2020Many people get confused on how Gold went down so fast.
I believe many investors don't feel safe to keep gold as the Corona Virus still in a dangerous state.
Hopefully, this Virus will be gone ASAP!
Talking about Gold, it has broken my weekly trendline.
It could retrace up to (38.2% - 50% fibo<1580-1604>), and continue go down around (1480-1512)
Let's try to guess ... when it will end. S&PHello friends.
I took the fear index on s&p - vix, we now have almost its maximum purpose, imposed fibonacci ... just for fun, and got the result of 2200. I do not advise buying from this value. Just guessing.
Of all the events, only 2 factors confuse me: the fall rate is too high and the fact that this happens on the eve of the Trump election.
Prepare your ass.. U know whySadly i have to say, u maybe know why this gonna happen...I cant talk too much here.
Stay tuned..
Black swan. Biggest shift of wealth in human history.Hello guys.
Just a few words for everybody too lazy watching the video.
We had the most crazy week in the stockmarket since many decades. The dump was violent.
Banks will fail - or at least the small banks will. Big banks might survive the financial crisis, but the world will never be the same.
Cryptocurrency will rise since it is the better money.
If you want to get rich. Just short everything you can - with reasonable leverage and never trade money which you cannot afford to loose. Ofcourse speaking of stocks and indices.
Keep in mind.
Health is more important than wealth.
(I always said 6.18 and meant 0.618)
I want to keep these videos short, but never manage to do so.
I might just get back to charts so people don't have to watch minute long videos.
Until then.
With best regards.
LONG GBP/AUDThis pair was also on my watch list, as I believe it has the potential to move up to the previous high and possibly even further, as it is still in an uptrend.
It is currently pushing out of the key area moving nicely into profit.
I believe everyone has the capacity to learnt to trade and break free of the 9 -5! if you want to learn how I trade then please follow me on here or in IG @saxonpooley and drop me a DM!
Have a great week
The trouble in Chinatown!There's not much interest in the Chinese stock index here on Tradingview but the ChinaA50 is absolutely important for what happens around the globe.
The A50 is in big trouble and more trouble is yet to come in weeks to months. This is just bad news for the rest of the world really.
I'll say no more here - follow some of the price action with me on the 4H.
POP!! POP! POP! 😂Oh well - only about 5000 points of a massive drop in just over 1 week. People are asking, " Has the bubble popped? ".
I go into this in some detail. I think we're at the start of the POP.
This thing is serious though.
I'd like to hear from others if they think this is going back up and to the moon.
SPX Long IdeaJust a trading idea, not trading advice.
Quit the shock of a move over a little bit of virus fear that will almost certainly soon blow over.
Not even 100,000 recorded patients infected to date, with a world population of over 7,700,000,000.
Some predict further, some predict recession, some predict the end of the world.
At least in the short term, I predict a dip that is about to reverse.
Let's see where it goes shall we?
Opinions?
Interest rates are about to break LOWERwww.RefiwithJustin.com if you own a home in Colorado or Texas!
Monthly view of the 10 year yield here.
Yield touched current levels in 2012 in anticipation of QE3.
Again in June 2016 over Brexit.
3rd time in August/September of trade war.
4th - Coronavirus? I would bet this is this what initiates the break down.
10 yr around 1% or lower coming soon?
Feb 23 Session Profile | /ES S&P 500 E-Mini FuturesDescription:
Things I'm thinking about tonight.
Points of Interest:
Massive gap, trendline break, location between 20 and 50 moving averages on daily chart (), untested POCs.
Technical:
Poor structure (untested POCs) beneath Sunday's overnight. We had a week of balancing and Friday left a poor low.
Fundamental:
Fed really supportive; manufacturing business outlook has risen to highest levels; housing market hot as home building permits rise; debt levels declining; world supply chains at risk due to this virus thing; global yields have generated massive inflows into passive vehicles that are heavily weighted towards a few stocks; insane speculation in the derivatives market (call side especially). We can go on. There is good and bad.
In The News:
Historically, "Epidemics normally have a severe but relatively short-lived impact on economic activity, with the impact on manufacturing and consumption measured in weeks or at worst a few months." (www.reuters.com)
"Despite historically low interest rates, U.S. companies are being unusually frugal, holding back on issuing new debt and pumping up their balance sheets with cash. Why it matters: Historically, when interest rates are low and the economy is strong, companies have levered up to increase capital expenditures and buy assets in order to expand. The opposite is happening now." (www.axios.com)
"So add low interest rates to suppressed inflation (temporarily) coupled with slowing worldwide growth, and we get a powerful upward force for stock prices. Our upside target for the S&P 500 Index is now 3600 or higher." (www.cumber.com)
"A survey of small- and medium-sized Chinese companies conducted this month showed that a third of respondents only had enough cash to cover fixed expenses for a month, with another third running out within two months. While China’s government has cut interest rates, ordered banks to boost lending and loosened criteria for companies to restart operations, many of the nation’s private businesses say they’ve been unable to access the funding they need to meet upcoming deadlines for debt and salary payments. Without more financial support or a sudden rebound in China’s economy, some may have to shut for good." (www.bloomberg.com)
"The White House is reportedly preparing to ask Congress for emergency funds to help the administration fight the outbreak of the coronavirus, which has infected almost 80,000 people around the world and accounted for more than 2,000 deaths." (thehill.com)
"The government of Hubei Province, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, said Thursday it will extend its business shutdown for a third time, this time to March 10, more than a month and a half after the Lunar New Year holiday was slated to end." (asia.nikkei.com)
"'The LEI’s six-month growth rate has returned to positive territory, suggesting that the current economic expansion — at about 2 percent — will continue through early 2020,' Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at the Conference Board, said in a statement." (www.axios.com)
How I'm Playing This:
I'm capitalizing on this high IV environment and will look to the call side on strong days, put side on weak days.
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
USDKRW - Covid-19 Hits Korean WonAs the increase of Covid-19 cases in South Korea keeps increasing (Currently 433 cases), I expect the Korean Won to drop heavily during the following days and weeks. The new cases have increased the fears about greater transmission outside China.
I expect the USDKRW to go higher, especially since the possibility of closing businesses due to the virus. I am expecting the USDKRW to go to higher than 1244 and then break to around 1273 in the following days or weeks. The last time USDKRW went to 1273 was in May 2010.
AUDJPY Market Overview & Possible Trade PlansChecking out AUD/JPY today as the pair recovers from an early Tuesday drop, likely on rising global risk aversion sentiment as coronavirus fears blaze up once again. Words are in town that by Apple, who issued revenue guidance warning www.theverge.com overnight, evoking fears of a more significant impact from the coronavirus outbreak on the global economy.
This lead to a break of the rising trendline lower lows on the hourly chart, as seen above, but the bulls stepped in to halt the decline around the pivot weekly s1. The pair is now testing the past broken strong support area around 73.50, which could draw in sellers looking for another opportunity to play the risk-off sentiment at a better price.
Be on the look out for bearish reversal patterns before considering a short play, and if the upcoming Australian data disappoints, then this pair could make a run for fresh break of today’s swing lows.
For the bulls, a turn in Coronavirus sentiment could halt the decline, as well as a big positive surprise from Australia’s upcoming leading and wages data. A break above 73.50 in the scenario could draw further fresh buyers who could shoot for the 74.00 handle, which is well with reach knowing the ATR of around 60 pips for this cross pair.
$HCT:ASX - HOLISTA COLLTECH - Is this the next $ZNO ?Hollista has been running hard on news of the Coronavirus and seems to be building momentum if anything. Their The nasal balm is an all-natural sanitizer to reduce the risk of viral infection via the nose, either through inhaled or via touch (hand to nose). It is a plant-based formula proven in world renowned laboratories, including laboratories working with World Health Organization, to kill over 170 deadly pathogens including previously tested forms of the coronavirus. Up 200% over the last couple of months it could be worth a look.
Holista is a research-driven biotech company, the result of a merger between Holista Biotech Sdn Bhd and CollTech Australia Ltd. Headquartered in Perth and with extensive operations in Malaysia, the company is dedicated to delivering first-class natural ingredients and wellness products globally. Holista is a leader in the research of herbs and ingredients for the making of healthier food. Listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), Holista researches, develops, manufactures and markets “health-style” products to address the unmet and evolving needs of natural medicine. Holista’s suite of ingredients, among other things, includes low-GI baked products, reduced-sodium salts, low-fat fried foods and low calories sugar without compromising taste, odour and mouthfeel. Holista remains the only company to produce sheep (ovine) collagen using patented extraction methods.