USD/JPY SHORT SETUP - WEEK HOLDFor those of you who like to hold trades for a good amount of time then this is a good opportunity for you!
The pair has been over extended again in this ascending channel and looks to repeat history once again. Since the long term bias is short. We can look at taking short positions with confidence and potentially break out of the ascending channel on the lower side making this trade a very good long term outlook if executed correctly.
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Virus
MAN AND MONEY vs VIRUS! WHO WILL WIN?The picture of the 2019-nCOV is rapidly evolving. Globally there have been >14,000 cases and >305 deaths. The trajectory of spread of this virus has exceeded SARS (2003).
In under 20 days there are 14,544 cases. There were less than 20 cases in the same period for SARS.
SARS plateaued off at 8,500 cases after 100 days then fell off. What we're seeing in hard evidence is that nCOV is going rapidly exponential - almost doubling in 20 days what SARS reached in 100 days.
8 countries have effectively quarantined China in various ways. AND NOW - China has told everybody to calm down, that it will maintain financial stability and pump their market with USD$173 Billion from Monday 3rd February 2020. The FED and Australia are considering similar moves.
The global economic disruption in what was a 'risk-off' situation, is gonna be serious and probably last well over a year. This doesn't mean that the markets will tank over the next year. It means expect bearish pressure.
Think also about an 'endpoint'. How will anybody know when it is safe to open borders, trade and travel in China?
If the VIX gets above 53 there is serious trouble!
Declarations & Disclaimers: For the avoidance of doubt, this post is only about potential impact of a virus in financial contexts. I take no comfort at all in people suffering and dying. Whilst I am sorry about the human consequences, I deal with the markets as an instrument - like any other. It is not illegal or immoral to exploit the movement of any market for any cause. As usual this is not trading advice. If you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
WATCH OUT - POTENTIAL BLACK SWAN EVENT - VIRUS ATTACKA 'black swan' event is something out of the blue - that creates systemic risk. The 2019-nCOV (virus) is potentially one such thing.
The markets have not been prepared for this - at all. Could it be the pinprick that pops the 'tech bubble' that influences markets globally?
The shock waves of this itty bitty virus are totally unexpected. I go into some price action in the last few days, on the DJI and explain some of the dangerous features of nCOV.
China has basically been quarantined by the international community. This is certainly not good news. It's an unofficial quarantine. Lots of nations have limited contact or isolated China in various ways.
The virus is one of the most spreadable in history of all viruses but with a low lethality. That means millions of people could be infected but only about 2% killed by it. And that means the death toll could be serious over weeks, months or years.
There is no treatment at this time and no vaccine. Even if a vaccine is developed, vaccinated the whole world is not a workable option. In addition the wide spread of the virus means that it can mutate - rendering any vaccine developed, as ineffective.
The next big question is when will this quarantine on China be lifted. It could take months, or probably years - depending on what the nCOV virus does next.
There is chatter in the blogosphere that the FED will come to rescue the markets from the virus.. like pfffft! The FED has a lesson coming to them.
Disclaimer : This screencast is not intended to advise on taking a position in the markets or making transactions. If you lose your money in the markets, kindly sue yourself.
CHINA VIRUS IS FAKE NEWS! READ THIS POST & BUY THE MARKET!!!Folks, and our followers...
The Chinese flue is "FAKE NEWS" only meant to cast a shadow over the BOOMING USA Economy and scare the public around the world...!
The SICK Liberals and Dirty Democrats want the USA stock market and stock markets around the world to crash and the USA economy to sink! These people are SICK..!!!
The real statistics you need to know about before selling into this FAKE NEWS China Flu Scam ...
Each year, over 600,000 people die from the FLU...
In 2018 alone, over 80,000 people died from the FLU...
Did we see the market crash in 2018..? NO NO NO..!!!
As of this post, there are ONLY 8 CASES of the dirty China flue in the USA...The FAKE NEWS continues their SICK agenda to try and crash the USA Economy before the 2020 election...!!!
CDC Link...
www.cdc.gov
Public Companies are reporting ROBUST Revenues and Profits, the China Flue is a SCAM...!
BUY THE DIPS BECAUSE UNTIL WE SEE THE DEATH TOLL IN THE USA COME CLOSE, OR PASS 60,000 TO 80,000 DEATHS FROM THE CHINA FLUE, IT'S FAKE NEWS!!!
DO NOT LET THE FAKE NEWS SCARE YOU INTO SELLING.
BUY BUY BUY
CHINA VIRUS IS FAKE NEWS! - READ WHY...BUY THE DIPSFolks, and our followers...
The Chinese flue is "FAKE NEWS" only meant to cast a shadow over the BOOMING USA Economy and scare the public around the world...!
The SICK Liberals and Dirty Democrats want the USA stock market and stock markets around the world to crash and the USA economy to sink! These people are SICK..!!!
The real statistics you need to know about before selling into this FAKE NEWS China Flu Scam ...
Each year, over 600,000 people die from the FLU...
In 2018 alone, over 80,000 people died from the FLU...
Did we see the market crash in 2018..? NO NO NO..!!!
As of this post, there are ONLY 8 CASES in the USA...The FAKE NEWS continues their SICK agenda to try and crash the USA Economy before the 2020 election...!!!
CDC Link...
www.cdc.gov
Public Companies are reporting ROBUST Revenues and Profits, the China Flue is a SCAM...!
BUY THE DIPS BECAUSE UNTIL WE SEE THE DEATH TOLL IN THE USA COME CLOSE, OR PASS 60,000 TO 80,000 DEATHS FROM THE CHINA FLUE, IT'S FAKE NEWS!!!
DO NOT LET THE FAKE NEWS SCARE YOU INTO SELLING.
BUY BUY BUY
Virus creates opport'ies to buy Alibaba at a time investor FEAR The Chinese government will, in time, regain control of the situation and refocus the bulk of its immense power on strengthening and modernizing the world’s second-largest economy. The economic hiccups caused by the virus should be viewed as short-term distractions that create opportunities for long-term investors to buy shares of Alibaba at a time when investors are afraid.
BUY STOCKS WHEN MARKETS CRASH AND LOOK THE RESULTS AND REAP HUGE REWARDS WHEN MARKETS RALLY !!! IT WAS TIME AND TIME AGAIN DEMONSTRATED IN HISTORY
STICK TO HIGH QUALITY NAMES WHICH ARE LEADERS AND DELIVER STRONG FUNDAMENTALS REGARDLESS OF MARKET CYCLES AND ARE IN LONG TERM SECULAR UPWARDS TREND
INTERNET SHOPPING IN CHINA IS JUST STARTED AND ALIBABA IS THE ONLY MAJOR PLAYER ALMOST A MONOPOLY FOR 1.5 BN CHINESE ! WHAT THEY CAL SELL IN ONE DAY IS UNPRECEDENTED AND MIND-BOGGLING
ALIBABA DID NOT ENJOY THE EXTRAVAGANT VALUATIONS OF THE MAJOR US TECH COMPANIES SO THIS IS A SAFE BET
BitcoinUSD Virus Bull Break 4 Hour Cup & Handle confirmedAt 6:01PMEST "White House tells airlines it may suspend all China-US flights amid coronavirus outbreak"
Has corresponded to the price move in silver, gold and now bitcoin.
Zombie virus has spurred fears and price is moving up in these markets.
Previous Analysis
This is not trading/financial advice.
When the S&P500 catches the fluIn this screencast I look at the S&P500 on the 4H time frame only. I show how I estimate the probable direction (this does not mean prediction).
I give some information on why the markets are reacting to a low grade coronavirus called 2019-nCOV (same family as MERS and SARS).
Disclaimer: This is not trading advice. If you make decisions based on this screencast and lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
BitMEXico initiated cure for Corona Virus w/ BATcoin short fundsCasualties increase in BitMEXico after 2 Barts from Wuhan Province spread their infectious disease in the market.
Diarrhea is said to be a common symptom of traders infected by the Corona Virus as the price charts indicate traders have been taking more dumps in the market.
Short for cheaper BATCoin.
How do virus attacks affect Wall Street?This is a very short presentation on how previous virus attacks have affected Wall Street (daily time frame). I go back to 2013, plotting what was seen.
This is relevant in relation to the recent Wuhan coronavirus (WCV). Mainstream media have referred to WCV as a "deadly virus". This is frankly nonsense based on current data.
The case fatality ratio (CFR) is an important measure in assessing lethality of a virus. The CFR for influenza A(H1N1) in 2009 was 0.45%. For ebola virus, it is overall >50%.
For the Wuhan coronavirus (WCV) which may not be one virus strain, the CFR is currently estimated at <3% (I cannot provide references here but people can contact me for links to info).
But hold on - the 3% is not (at this time) for large populations of those infected. The average age group of people who have been killed WCV is currently around 60. Did I say 'average'? Yes - I did (which means I know there are some people who have been around 30). Attribution of WCV has also not been 100% caused by WCV either. The 'average' age group may fall (or increase) with time.
In summary
- ebola is definitely a deadly virus - the markets barely flinched if at all to Ebola.
- estimates of lethality of WCV are currently not robust.
My conclusion -
The media is responsible for selling its news.
The media have been irresponsible in feeding panic, in selling its news.
News and panic are what rules markets more than hard facts and figures.
Will the WCV outbreak be the pin that pricks the bubble? I don't know. It could well be the first of the dominoes to fall, setting off a chain reaction for slow burn down - instead of a serious correction. OR - WCV may well be insignificant. If it is, then expect a raging bull market to rebel! I cannot foresee the future!
Declarations & Disclaimers: I am not a virus expert, nor a financial expert. This post is opinion only based on data fully available in the public domain. Opinions here are not be be relied upon in making financial or trading decisions. If you who reads this makes such decisions, your losses are your own - should you suffer a loss. You sue yourself if you lose money.
$nflx going viralEarnings beat, shorts pushed it down bigly, rallied back up the next day, now we're bullish re-testing.
There is a virus which doesn't have a cure, doesn't have good data about (expecting China to provide anything legitimate is funny meme), and journos need something to write about.
Why not stay inside, watch some Netflix?
With a very high short float and big bear funds piling in, reminds me of a certain $tsla setup.
Picked up spot shares cost basis 349.41, got the 415 2/14/2020 calls shown by yellow cross as well.
Stop for all at 338.61.
VIRUS CAUSES WALL STREET TO SHUDDERNews of one person in the USA being struck my a Chinese coronavirus, cause the markets to retreat on a northward charge. Only some 200+ points. Not much but it is significant.
The DJI is highly overpriced at the moment for a whole load of reasons, and it's very twitchy. The fact that the markets reacted to this story at all shows the twitchiness. It's just one case. But usually insiders know before the mainstream media what's going on.
News is that moves markets, cuz it's about sentiment more than fundamental value. Many things have shaken the market in recent months. People have been watching closely and nervously - guessing what will prick the bubble to cause a pop.
Stay tuned. Anything that rocks this market is worth watching for those who need to get out, or short.
This is not advice to short this market. If you lose your money kindly sue yourself.
$nflx tries a $tsla?2/14/2020 415$ calls copped for 1.03$.
Playing that $nflx tries to initiate short sell cascade, smashes upper unfilled gap and goes beyond.
$dis+ means analysts and funds are short, war fears, and newest coronavirus sighting in US means more home time, need entertainment.
If they miss poorly and it drops, it’ll settle around 320-325, playing gap at 305~.
Lottery time.
EUROPE Cyberattack ! How do I make a profit from it ? #read12th-15th May
About 40 days ago... (Initial WannaCry outbreak)
en.wikipedia.org
15th of May
CNBC reported
"
Cybersecurity stocks jump after major 'WannaCry' attack
Palo Alto Networks, Symantec and FireEye led the gains on Monday among cybersecurity stocks following the Friday WannaCry malware attack.
CNBC analyzed 15 major cyberattacks over the last decade using analytics tool Kensho and found cybersecurity-related stocks posted big gains in the week and month after a big hacking.
"
www.cnbc.com
TODAY
27th June
Today, a massive cyberattack dubbed "Wannacry 2" has hit European businesses, Ukraine among biggest victims during the writing of this piece.
WHAT NOW AND HOW CAN I MAKE A PROFIT ?
Well, here is a short list of cybersecurity stocks that reported increased stock price last time this happened (Around 40 days ago):
Palo Alto Networks
Symantec
FireEye
Qualys
The intelligent investor will now proceed to conduct his own research and make an informed decision.
#Discuss
$LRGR prepares to take the Zika Virus by storm!Zika virus has been spreading rapidly across the globe, reaching much further that originally anticipated. $LRGR has the product to kill the virus at 'sting' point on your body and it appears to have many other uses as well.
"Jenex received a Class II medical device status from the FDA for its platform technology that is indicated for the relief of the pain, itch, and inflammation from over 20,000 different insect stings and bites, (including bees, wasps, hornets, mosquitoes, black flies and jellyfish). Jenex received approval for the above claims from FDA (United States) in 1997"
www.otcmarkets.com