VIX for a blowout Another VIX post which have been received well in the past.
SPX is due for a huge correction and I think this will begin today, alongside all other major indices.
We see a Cup & Handle formation in the making and I believe that this is soon to be confirmed.
It is also resting on a historical trend line as well as various other resistance related metrics.
Target is very conservative with a lot of room to go past the highs in August. Re asses as this moves.
VIX CBOE Volatility Index
Three days after elections and one after FED cutStarting with #VIX the value decreased a lot after elections showing the decrease in investors fear
With less fear we can follow the #SPX #DX1! #BTC1! which strongly rise their value.
Commodites in general seems to had loss some points with Dollar strength, in this chart we can watch #GC1! and #BZ1! as benchmark
In the case of Brent we can see a double top even with line chart.
#US10Y decreased after 25bp cut nevertheless with Trump election US will probably activate more worldwide tariffs and this can lead to an increase in prices, and so the next couple months CPI will be a important measure to look at US economy in the future. So even it's decreasing and bonds are inversly to prices, I should keep an eye on it
S&P500 vs VIX vs Copper/Gold Ratio. The rally continues.On this chart you can see the Volatility Index against the S&P500 and the Copper/Gold ratio.
We bring this chart to you in order to show you why we think the long term trend on the stock market will be bullish for 2025.
As you can see, VIX had an odd spike in August, when the stock market corrected to some degree.
Since the 2008 crisis, we have had similar spikes on VIX only another two times March 2020 (COVID) and September 2011.
Alls those times, the Copper/Gold ratio bottomed after a long term decline and started to rise.
This rise started also a rally on the S&P500.
Since the market was unphazed in August, we have strong reason to believe that it will extend its gains in 2025 too.
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VIX volatility index fills the gap, what now?#vix the volatility index has filled the gap shown on the chart as red box. Also TVC:VIX index has broken down the bull flag. But, the question is: "A fake down?"
If vix had did this as a fake movement (and only gap filling dump), then a great volatility awaits all markets, just soon.
US Election, FED Rate Cut, 1,200+ earnings - Here we go!!!It's Election Eve and I thought it was important to share how I'm positioning for the US Election and all of the craziness that it may bring.
Maybe it's all hype, maybe it's the truest test of US Democracy, maybe it's the beginning of the end. I'm not going to opine on political preference. I'm simply going to focus on current levels and what's in play.
Pullback levels for me are all pretty visually friendly with EMA combos on the Daily and Weekly charts. We are 3-4% off from recent highs, the market wasn't in love with Mag 7 earnings last week, pre-election jitters are fairly obvious, and the market will be looking for a reason to do something.
Expect volatility - and I hope it's nothing wild and crazy like Aug 1-5. I discuss the potential concern for a US Election where a winner is not declared and we wait days or longer for an official winner. Also a phenomenon is the Wednesday close for the S&P tends to show solid short-term direction, but I believe that's only if we see a winner Tuesday night for election night (just my opinion).
I'm hedged, alerts are set, it's all happening whether we like it or not. Focus on what you can control in your trading and let's figure it out.
Thanks for watching!!!
VIX Will Go Lower! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for VIX.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 21.94.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 20.13.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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Using VIX futures to manage equity risk over the US Election One-way traders can look at expected volatility and movement in the S&P500 over the US election volatility is by looking at the premium or the differential that VIX October futures hold over VIX November futures.
Because the VIX index takes in a series of S&P500 options strikes that blend to create a 30-day implied volatility, the October VIX futures essentially looks at S&P500 volatility over the November US election.
Therefore, the higher the premium for VIX October futures over November futures, the greater demand for volatility over the election and the greater the implied movement in US equity markets.
This can be useful for traders who look at event risk and consider the propensity and extent of movement, and whether they want to hold exposures over that risk.
The code in TradingView to use is - VXV2024-CBOE:VXX2024
US Inflation, Earnings Season Kickoff, Markets on EdgeS&P has failed to make all-time highs
Dow has failed to make all-time highs
Nasdaq has failed to make any new highs
Russell has failed to make any new highs
Oil rips on Middle East escalations
Dollar rips on technical support and bear trap play. Dollar is a big component to the stock markets edging higher for the remainder of the year (e.g. dollar strong = market weak, dollar weak = market strong)
I'm keeping it very simple and staying patient for any "dip" opportunities on indexes, stocks, and watchlist items
I still like Gold, Silver, Bitcoin long as well - again, patient on price action and entries
Major News this week
-US CPI (MoM, YoY, Core and Reg CPI)
-Earnings Season Kickoff - DPZ, DAL, WFC, JPM, BLK and others
Thanks for watching!!!
Q4 Kickoff - US down, VIX Up, Oil Drama, China RipQuick video recap to highlight what's the latest and greatest in the markets.
Oct 1 - Happy Q4
US Big Tech in "big red" today
US Energy in "big green" today - thanks for a wild bid on USOIL
China continues to rip "green" and it's playing catchup quickly
US will have to deal with employment news, inflation news, earnings news, all before the US Election and Nov 7 FOMC Rate Decision (expecting another 25 bps cut)
Major levels to the downside if there's a US market pullback, FOMC lows, gap fills, and up trendline levels (50 period SMA, 100 period SMA, 200 period SMA) but we'll see
Stay frosty out there :)
Thanks for watching!!!
VIX Will Go UP! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
VIX made a retest of
The horizontal support
Level of 14.80$ and then
Broke out of the narrowing
Wedge pattern so we are
Bullish biased and we will
Be expecting a further
Bullish move up
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
Bitcoin Next Stop 68K!Traders,
In this video:
00:00 - Housekeeping. Thank you all for the polling responses. Greatly appreciated and helps determine site direction tremendously. Quite a few site changes have already been implemented. I will discuss these as well as added new features, services, and what my new indicator system is showing us.
00:08 - The weekly technical analysis and price trajectory for the next few weeks
S&P500 This rally isn't even halfway there!Last time we plotted the S&P500 index (SPX) against the Volatility Index (VIX) was almost a year ago (November 07 2023, see chart below) and that helped as catch a more than +20% rise:
This time, the two assets who are on a negative correlation don't trade on exactly opposite patterns. The S&P500 has been trading within a Channel Up for almost 1 year (since the October 30 2023 Low), while VIX is on a (wide) range with a clear Support Zone and peaks within a 22.00 - 24.00 Resistance Zone, with the exception of the early August rise that spiked above it (recession fears).
Naturally, VIX's spikes and rejections (red circles) are SPX's bottoms and reversals (green circles). The blue circles that are bottoms for VIX inside its Support Zone are mid rally consolidations on the S&P500. This indicates that even when the Volatility bottoms and starts rising, the market is still in euphoria and it takes another half rally before it realizes that an aggressive volatility spike is coming.
This can be particularly helpful in determining how long we still have to keep buying. Based on VIX's current position (ellipse shape), we are on the consolidation phase before the Support Zone test. Which means that we aren't even halfway through SPX's Bullish Leg.
We expect that to be around mid to end of October, just before the U.S. elections to come up as a needed correction. As a result, we are expecting an end-of-year price at around 6200.
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High Beta Bear | HIBS | Long at $22.00 (September Only)Historically, September is one of the worst performing months in the stock market. A hedge against my bets for this month is to buy shares of Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bear 3X AMEX:HIBS as a volatility play. The index provider selects 100 securities from the S&P 500 Index that have exhibited the highest sensitivity to market movements, or “beta,” over the past 12 months based on the securities’ daily price changes. This isn't "buy and hold" play, whatsoever - you'll loose. It's a short duration hedge using seasonality odds that *may* be in my favor (i.e., September sucks)
Target #1 = $24.85
Target #2 = $26.00
Target #3 = $28.00+
A stop exists below $20.00.