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VIX-SPX

'Spidey sense' tingling? Depends how you know what you know.Safe experience lull you into a false sense of security, even when you know about a clear and present danger. That's what experts on risk and decision making** say about the role of our personal experience in our risk perception. Take 9/11 for example. Many, suddenly concerned about the risk in flying, opted to drive instead. However, in reality the risk of injury or death while driving is multiple times that of flying. Why was driving perceived as safer? Studies of decision making say that a big factor is the *way* people get most of their information. When that information comes from repeated personal experience (like car trips) it is given a bigger weight in the decisions we make. The catch is when the typical experience shows no danger simply because the threat is very rare, novel (for us) or out of our awareness. It's August 25th, 2022 and, stock indexes are levitating, held up by some unseen force. The "Doom and Gloom" on you tube is starting to ring hollow. We know the risks: inflation, dollar, rates, etc. etc. etc. I won't bore you further with my mundane perspective of, what has been for me, a mundane market. You already know the punchline cleverly hidden in the chart on the right (a 3 day chart of VIX). Out of curiosity, was I the only one caught off guard? If you were asked, out of the blue, to draw the 3 day VIX, would it look like that? and lastly- The best explanation I have is the one offered above. What would you add? or subtract? -Trade Safe. **The research on decisions from experience is extensive but these are good points of departure: Thinking Fast and Slow , D. Kahneman. Chapter 30. Rare Events The Black Swan : The Impact of the Highly Improbable Paperback – January 1, 2008. pp 76-78 Decisions from experience and the effect of rare events in risky choices. Psychological Science . 15. 534-539. Hertwig, R., Barron, G., Weber, E., and Erev, I. (2004). The Effect of Safe Experience on a Warnings’ Impact: Sex, Drugs, and Rock-n-Roll ." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 106, no. 2 (July 2008): 125-142. Barron, Greg, Stephen George Leider, and Jennifer N. Stack. "
SP:SPX
by gb50k
Potential Shorts SPXVIX weekly looks ready to rally and we are seeing bearish pressure develop on the SPX weekly chart, we have been in an incredible rally now since the initial crash in March 2020 and now we have broken this rallies trend and retested, Like I said Investors are starting to be curious about the future with Volatility rising and confidence decreasing, we are seeing the USD$ Rally higher and higher, FED wish to reduce the balance sheet and reduce inflation as being talked about in the last few FOMC meetings, we can expect at some point Stocks to return back down from this almighty climb as interest rates increase and Asset purchasing reduces. So because of this I have decided to view the SPX500 weekly chart, and you can see price is breaking the volume at the top of the chart and we can aim for the 3.4k/3.5k levels where we have seen typically more transactions in the past.
SP:SPXShort
by ZenFlo
2
NDX and QQQ - April Thesis and LvlsFlow analysis via Unusual Whales... NDX= Most Active Chains 4.1.22: 5.20.22 / 14,000p, 14,900c, 15,150c Chains with the highest OI 4.1.22: 4.14.22 / 14,225c = 5k oi 4.14.22 / 13,000p = 1k oi bullish 6506 / bearish 4828 Biggest options trades 4.1.22: bullish skew QQQ = Most Active Chains 4.1.22: 4.4.22 / 360p, 358p, 363c, 364c Chains with highest OI 4.1.22: ALL BEARISH Biggest Options Trades 4.1.22: Overwhelmingly Bearish skew but all very far dated EXP... all of the bullish volume (three out of the top ten sorted by premium volume) where near dated 4.8.22 and 5.20.22; a floor, cross. and third order totaling about $15m in bullish premium. There was about $56m bearish premium that came through, notably a big cross order coming in 11am hour for over $32m, buying 9.16.22 360p. There has been notable dark pool volume starting march 7th, coming in every day... Price Action Since march 14 we have broken the lower highs set in Feb and March and respected the low set end of Feb and the range low of Jan. Slight pullback / consolidation of the highs of Feb - in process of forming higher low? - Local swing low on qqq @ 351 and march open at 345 ; high @ 371.83 Same concept for NDX, using these levels.... Sir, I am bullish Target 1 - 15265 (local swing high) Target 2 - 15459 (weekly lvl) Target 3 - 16000 (s/r flip jan) Target 4 - 16350- 16513 (next weekly lvl, year open, year high range) ATH is 16764 Invalidation levels / Intraday downside targets Failure of local swing low - 14446 and march open at 14197 Jan range low - 13724 HTF swing and yearly low of 13020 Note qqq lvls Target 371, 380, 384, 399, 403 invalidation / down 353-351,345, 336, 318
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by TheZooKeeper
Is the VIX setting up for a breakout?Here's something I've been watching lately: the VIX has been painting a parabolic curve under its lows. We can see above there is a slightly descending resistance line with three perfect points of contact. It appears to be building balance higher and setting up for a breakout. If this was any stock painting this chart pattern, I would be buying it hand over fist right now. Also worth noting is that S&P E-Mini futures (ES1!) added over 72k contracts to open interest across all months on Friday, on a down move and closing on its lows. My expectation is for VIX to break out and extend to 55. I expect that if the VIX is going to break out, it will happen in the next 5-7 trading days. Otherwise we should expect to see a breakdown of this pattern and a lower VIX for the next few weeks.
CBOE:VIXLong
by iamroot
VIX. P-Modeling Pt C. The Function of Waves and Complexity MapsWelcome Hyperspace Traveler. This is a Time-Series based analysis on the 1-Day TF. Timing Error allowed is about 2 weeks of shifting narrative over *(if needed). Please see previous idea. This trial was a failure, the narrative has never changed. Structure remained intact. Your doubt is palpable. SPX TP: 1300-1100 by mid-July 2021. VIX 180. UVXY 215 + DXY 110-113 That is expected, but curiosity will take over as it manifests. Thanks for Pondering the Unknown with Me, Glitch420
CBOE:VIXLong
by Glitch420
21
SPX Volatility Index - Short Trade [HUV.TO] - TSXShort Trade set up following increased volatility during stock market correction. Expect further volatility surrounding the FOMC meeting tomorrow @ 2:00 EST HUV.TO - BetaPro S&P 500 VIX ShortTerm Futures ETF Entry - 10.85 Exit Target - 9.00 - 8.55 These are my entry and exit points, view the chart and come up with your own conclusion. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice or any other advice or recommendation of any sort.
TSX:HUVShort
by Cogg
1