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VIX-SPX

Today's Lesson (#5) : How trade possible market manipulations.Before playing that video, be aware that I'm a very agressive trader, which means high level of risk into trying to copy my trades. The quality in those videos comes out of their content, not just following blindly. I'll be trading this with low leverage as this is highly speculative. So please don't just follow blindly but just take the educational content out of this to learn how to trade manipulated market more "safely", still being aware that this remain high risky thing !
SP:SPXEducation
by PRO_Indicators
6
The ratio of SPX:VIX at unusual levelNote the ratio of SPX:VIX spikes prior to market corrections because VIX typically spikes just prior to downward trend in SPX (weekly ratio w/ log scale). Also note the SPX:VIX ratio has historically (nearly) always outpaced SPX. However, we are currently in a very unusual situation in which the ratio is significantly below SPX... VIX is at a historic high compared to SPX. Not sure what to make of this... sign of even larger correction to come or will SPX:VIX ratio revert to historic trend greater than SPX which means big gains for SPX, big decrease in VIX)? What do you think?
SP:SPXLong
by usernamessux
4
Global Equity Risks Increasing In The Coming MonthsA more cautious tone is appearing across global equity markets. Further gains to prove increasingly difficult to maintain. China poised to break higher? Global equity markets remain in their dominant bull trends. Investor portfolios are overweight and investor sentiment is positive. However, warning signals are now appearing, suggesting further gains are likely to prove increasingly difficult to maintain. Geopolitical risks are growing – for example, heightened tensions in the Middle East and increasingly strained rhetoric between the US and North Korea. Against this backdrop, the Volatility Index, VIX, which is a measurement of market volatility, is showing signs of a trend change. Since August 2015, the Volatility Index has been falling steadily. This reduction in volatility has helped to quell market fears and increased investor confidence. Their portfolios have thus been balanced around a ‘risk-on’ approach – overweight equities. Recent political developments are now being reflected in the VIX, as prices begin to trade higher from historic supports. Positive divergence in rising momentum studies and steady improvement in the proprietary Tension Indicator highlight potential for a price bounce into the coming months. As the VIX trades higher, volatility increases and investors become more cautious. This will lead to adjustments in portfolio equities, and a corrective pullback in equity prices. We thus maintain a cautious stance to US equities and expect further gains will prove increasingly difficult to maintain. The UK FTSE100 Index is also being driven by investor insecurity. Following the UK prime minister’s shock announcement of a snap General Election in June of this year, the FTSE100 has fallen sharply from historic highs. This sharp pullback is helping to unwind overbought momentum studies, and is expected to keep prices under pressure into the coming months. A break below 7000 would not do too much damage to the dominant bull trend. However, a close below the 6675/80 lows of November-December 2016 would increase downside risks, and lead to renewed portfolio reduction. Against this gradually deteriorating backdrop, European bourses are also coming under pressure. The European EuroStoxx50 Index and the German DAX Index are expected to turn away from current highs. In Asia, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index is also vulnerable to a pullback. The China Composite Index, however, is showing signs of stabilisation within the prolonged consolidation pattern. Improving studies highlight potential for a break above critical resistance at the 3285, (61.8%) Fibonacci retracement of the 2015-2016 fall and 3301.66 high of November 2016. Subsequent gains would confirm continuation of the broad 2016 rally and turn investors outright bullish.
TVC:VIX
by Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK
VIX showing signs of strength into the coming monthsThere are further signs of bullish trend development in the VIX. Prices are now trading above congestion around 15.00 as momentum studies post positive divergence and continue to strengthen. The proprietary Tension Indicator (not shown) is also improving. In the coming months, expectations are for higher levels to attract, with focus turning to congestion around 20.00 and the 20.20, (23.6%) Fibonacci retracement of the August-February fall. A close above the 23.01 high of November 2016 is needed, however, to confirm a fresh rally, with subsequent gains opening up the 26.50, (38.2%) Fibonacci retracement and the 26.72 high of June. A close below the 9.97 low of February would add fresh downside pressure to price action and target critical support at the 9.39 contract lows of 2006. An unexpected break would confirm fresh downside tests as the 2015 bear trend gains fresh traction.
TVC:VIX
by Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK
VIX under pressure, but close to critical supportsThe VIX remains under pressure, within the November bear trend, with the close below the July 2014 trendline putting pressure on the 10.28 year low of July 2014. Falling studies anticipate extension to psychological support at 10.00, with potential for further losses to the 9.70 year low of February 2007. Still lower is the 9.39 year low of December 2006, but already oversold stochastics studies suggest downside tests could become progressively more difficult to maintain. Critical contract lows at the 8.89 low of December 1993 should underpin any immediate tests, as prices settle into volatile consolidation. Resistance is lowered to the 13.28 high of 19 January, but a close above the 14.72 high of December 2016 is needed to improve price action and promote stability/trend change.
TVC:VIX
by Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK
VIX under pressure, but approaching strong supportsThe VIX is coming under fresh downside pressure, with the November bear trend extending further, with prices now approaching trendline support from 2014 and the 11.02 low of August. A tick lower in the Tension Indicator anticipates risk of a deeper reaction towards critical support at the 10.28-10.88 year lows of 2014-2015, but any immediate tests are expected to settle into consolidation as stochastics are already oversold and showing signs of stabilising. Resistance is lowered to the 14.72 high of 1 December and extends to the 15.56 high of 14 November. A close above here would help to stabilise price action and open up a test of minor congestion around 19.00, but a break above the 23.01 high of 4 November is needed to improve price action and target multi-month critical reactions at the 26.72 high of July.
TVC:VIX
by Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK
BACK TO WAITING FOR BROAD MARKET VOLATILITY ... BROAD MARKET INSTRUMENT PREMIUM SELLING Post-Brexit vote in late June, when VIX spiked to >25 (signalling a premium selling opportunity in broad market instruments like SPY/SPX and RUT/IWM in the July expiry), there has been but one >15 spike to >20 in mid-September that allowed for some premium selling in the October monthlies, which have since come off in profit in the ensuing volatility crush. Consequently, I'm back to sitting on my hands waiting for another >15 VIX spike to sell premium in SPY/SPX or IWM/RUT in a November expiry and/or managing the small number of plays I have on as covered calls or premium selling in sector ETF's like GDX and XOP, where the implied volatility remains high compared to what it is in the broader market (48.4% and 35.5%, respectively). CAN THIS EARNINGS SEASON NOT SUCK FOR PREMIUM SELLING? Naturally, I'm also watching potential earnings plays, but I waved off many of those last season because they weren't up to snuff. Generally, I'm looking for those to have implied volatility above the 70% percentile for the past 52 weeks and implied volatility above 50%, and there haven't been many of those around of late due to general market volatility lull. The first earnings play of interest to me right now with a >70% implied volatility rank is EBAY (10 days out), but its implied volatility remains below 50% (35.2%)
TVC:VIX
by NaughtyPines
2
Inverse Head & ShouldersSterling has been on a monster tear after mixed employment data out of the United Kingdom. Averages earnings beat expectations of 2.6 percent, printing a 2.9 percent. However, the U.K. did see a rise in unemployment even as the unemployment rate fell a tenth-percent. Traders are looking to front from any potential talk out of the Bank of England (BoE) that could hint at a potential rate hike. BoE Governor Mark Carney still pressed that a decision to address interest rates would not be made until the end of the year, likely to figure out how financial markets react to an anticipated hike from the Federal Reserve. The yen saw pressure, along with the dollar, as risk assets continued their second day of rallying into tomorrow's FOMC minutes meeting and pressure conference (which tends to be the case). Without a doubt, their will be a good deal of volatility, and it will largely coincide with what Fed Chair Janet Yellen foresees in the near future in regards to the U.S. economy and the potential trajectory of interest rates. As seen in the early '90s, the Fed could raise rates (although, I doubt they would) and the dollar could actually decline. Depending on how the yen reacts, GBPJPY could potentially break out of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Price action have jumped up to the neckline on the 4H chart, but there are a few key things to consider: 1. It is always prudent to wait for a close above the neckline, as a false breakout will suck in traders. 2. The neckline also lines up with a well-established supply zone on the intraday charts. If price action meanders too long in the supply zone (blue rectangle), momentum could wane causing the pair to retreat. Conversely, if GBPJPY can close above 187.65 then the pair could attempt 188.55 and 189. If not, a retrace to 186 could be warranted. Side note: considering that the VIX is currently trading within a descending wedge (bullish reversal), it possible that heightened volatility will strengthen the yen. Please follow me on Twitter @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
by CommoditiesTrader
6