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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

H&S on SPY active. Will $410 target be hit?Traders, A strong dollar (11 weeks straight of green candles) and an elevated VIX has helped to trigger a break of this H&S neckline on the SPY chart. The pattern is now playing out but we are on support on the RSI chart where we can usually expect a bounce. Additionally, we have strong support at the 200 day ma just below us. Our target on this H&S is 410. The big question is will we reach that target or will the bottom of my channel which coincides with the 200 day ma catch us before falling that far? Best, Stew
AMEX:SPYShort
by stewdamus
Why we’re watching the Bond/Equity Volatility With the action-packed week of global central bank meetings for September now behind us, we believe it's an appropriate time to review where we stand. The current phase, in our view, can be aptly summarized by the words of Huw Pill, the Bank of England’s Chief Economist: a ‘Table Mountain’ scenario rather than a ‘Matterhorn.’ Recent announcements have positioned the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England, and the Federal Reserve as adopting a pause stance. Meanwhile, the ECB suggests that it is in the final stages of its hiking program, and Sweden’s Riksbank has just executed its final hike. While we remain slightly skeptical that these hikes may indeed be the final ones, let's entertain this thought and examine what transpires during periods of a defined pause. Defined pause periods raise alerts for us, as highlighted in our previous piece on US Equities. In that article, we pointed out the impact of a Fed pause, as it has often preceded periods of equity drawdowns. This pattern becomes even more evident when we consider other variables like shifts in the dollar and interest rates. Looking at the S&P 500 index —in 2000 and 2006—where a clear pause was observed, significant equity drawdowns followed thereafter. Furthermore, the 10-Year, 2-Year, and 3-Month yields have just reached their highest levels since October 2007, June 2007, and January 2001, respectively. These yields mark the highest nominal interest rates seen in decades across the interest rate curve. More significantly, this shift has brought real yields back to positive levels, something investors haven't seen for a while, all while the yield curve inverts to unprecedented levels. All of these factors have spill-over effects on investors accustomed to decades of low real interest rates. Another observation worth noting is that the ratio of Bond to Equity volatility has proven to be a reliable indicator for predicting the next market regime. For instance, during the 2008 period, a break in this ratio was followed by significant moves lower in the market. A similar phenomenon was observed in 2019, where a sharp break in the ratio of MOVE to VIX preceded the market's next downturn. What captures our interest now is a recent, significant break in this ratio, reinforcing our bearish outlook on equities. In terms of daily charts, the recent gap down places the index at a precarious juncture as it grapples with both a sharp break of the 100-day moving average and trend support. Compared to the last two instances when the index broke lower, the current RSI stands at even lower levels. Adding to this, only 18% of S&P 500 stocks currently trade above their 50-day moving average. Given the breakdown in the MOVE/VIX ratio, the global pause in interest rate policy, and supporting technical indicators, we are inclined to maintain a bearish stance on US equities. We can express this view via a short position on the CME E-mini S&P 500 Futures at the current level of 4347, with the take profit at 3800 and stop at 4500. Each 0.25 point move in the E-MINI S&P500 index Futures is equal to $12.5. We can also express this same view with the CME Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index. With each 0.25 point move equating to $1.25, its smaller tick size compared to the standard contract offers greater flexibility in position-building or averaging your entries. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
TVC:MOVEShort
by inspirante
2
$DXY $TNX $VIX stronger than previous recent runsGoing 2b away today meeting with partners. This post might just be the only one today TVC:DXY This is a pretty strong trend. TVC:TNX That last move was stronger than previous, look at the RSI. 10Yr #yield. TVC:VIX This move was also with more strength than previous moves. Conclusion: Our call to end BULL run was spot on. Should've went BEAR, it's what we thought but didn't want to rush. However, we did say that risk was towards the DOWN.
TVC:DXY
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
$DJI $NDX $SPX show warning signs UpdateGood Morning! We turned neutral, from Bullish Sept 2022, late July - early August. Since then #stocks have traded slowly lower. For the moment all major indices trade ABOVE longer term moving avgs. This tends to be a good sign. However, they're all trading sub short term moving avgs. Furthermore: Indicators like RSI & Money Flow have eroded recently They've also formed ominous patterns, as follows: DJ:DJI formed Rising Wedge. NASDAQ:NDX $ CBOE:SPX Head & Shoulders. Most likely these patterns will resolve soon. Either confirm or break. Have an awesome trading week!
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Here's What Has to Happen Next Week to Show Us DirectionTraders, Are we going up? Or are we going down? Sigh. This market is exhausting, I know. And once again we are on the brink of decision time for the U.S. market. The dollar is knocking on the door of overhead resistance, if it breaks then we can expect downward movement both in the U.S. stock market and in crypto. But if resistance holds firm, expect weakness in the U.S. dollar to show again. This will be priced into the market positively and you can expect more upward movement both in stocks and crypto. In this video, I will briefly show you the main technical areas we need to continue monitoring next week. Best, Stew
INDEX:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
VIX Will Go Higher! Long! Please, check our technical outlook for VIX. Time Frame: 1h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 12.81. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 13.44 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:VIXLong
by SignalProvider
8
Dollar Bulls May Win!Traders, We have been monitoring the U.S. dollar for years now. It is, by far, one of the most significant variables in monitoring what price action may do elsewhere. Almost everything here in the U.S. hinges upon it and its ripple impact is, without a doubt, global. Crypto most certainly is not excluded. I was early to spot this Head and Shoulders pattern. It was in October of last year that I think I first speculated this ominous pattern may be forming on our DXY chart. But I was not really clear then whether or not it would truly form and furthermore, if it would play out. Fast forward to today. I am still not clear. However, there are several clues that may indicate that this H&S pattern will become invalidated. Of course, the number one clue is the ever-increasing strength of the dollar. Should it beat that 105.6 level I have drawn, I don't believe the pattern remains valid. Comment below if you disagree. Ensure to comment as to why you disagree in order that we can all learn together. Another reason I have doubted the pattern is that dip below our neckline in mid-August. On the daily, the neckline was broken. But then we quickly reversed. On the weekly chart, the break was never confirmed with a second candle opening and closing below the neckline. Therefore, I kept the pattern present on my chart and continued to monitor. But it looks as though we are now approaching decision time. And in my mind, if my level of 105.6 is absorbed and confirmed, I can safely remove the pattern from the chart and cease tracking. This would spell bad news for the market. As I have discussed many times previously, as stronger dollar generally weighs down the U.S. stock market, especially when the VIX plays along with it and increases the measurement of fear/panic. As of today, the VIX is at an all time two-year low. This sends sort of a mixed signal to traders. I like to think of it as a neutralizing factor. When the dollar is up but the VIX is moving down, generally the market tends to move sideways. So, we are relatively safe right now. However, should that fear index spike, expect a significant pullback to occur in the U.S. stock market, especially if that dollar beats my level. Stay tuned as I continue to track these scenarios. Best, Stew
TVC:DXYLong
by stewdamus
The VIX: A Measure of Market FearThe VIX, or Volatility Index, is a measure of the expected volatility of the S&P 500 index over the next 30 days. It is calculated using the prices of options on the S&P 500 index. A higher VIX indicates that market participants are expecting more volatility in the future, while a lower VIX indicates that they are expecting less volatility. The VIX is an important tool for investors because it can help them understand how risky the stock market is. A high VIX indicates that the market is expected to be volatile, which means that there is a greater chance of large price swings. This can make investing more risky, but it can also create opportunities for profit. The VIX is also correlated with the S&P 500 index. This means that the VIX tends to move in the opposite direction of the S&P 500. When the S&P 500 falls, the VIX tends to rise, and when the S&P 500 rises, the VIX tends to fall. This correlation is not perfect, but it is strong enough to be useful for investors. The VIX can be used in a variety of ways by investors. Some investors use the VIX to assess the risk of their portfolios. Others use the VIX to trade volatility, either by buying or selling VIX futures contracts. Still others use the VIX to hedge against risk in other assets. The VIX is a complex and volatile asset, but it can be a valuable tool for investors who understand how to use it. Here are some additional things to keep in mind about the VIX: The VIX is not a direct measure of the volatility of the stock market. It is a measure of the expected volatility, which means that it is based on the opinions of market participants. The VIX can be affected by a variety of factors, including economic news, political events, and natural disasters. The VIX is not always accurate. It can sometimes overshoot or undershoot the actual volatility of the stock market. Despite its limitations, the VIX is a valuable tool for investors. It can help investors understand the risk of the stock market and make informed investment decisions. I hope this post is helpful. This analysis represents my thoughts at the date it is posted. This analysis does not represent professional and/or financial advice. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other content found on this profile before making any decisions based on such information.
CAPITALCOM:VIXEducation
by YExplore
2
$TNX, 2Yr Yield, $DXY, $VIX analysisThe 10Yr - TVC:TNX and the 2Yr #yield have held pretty steady the last few days. Won't be shocked if it doesn't do much until the DJ:DJI & TVC:NDQ , "coincidentally", break out of the patterns we've spoken about. TVC:DXY losing a lil bit of steam. Is it topping again? The only odd man out is the $VIX. It's closer to the lower end of range. IMO this is just something to look at and not of much use until it is. September will go out with a BANG!!! One way or another!
TVC:TNX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Opening gap not retraced yetOne thing we would like to point out is yesterday's opening gap in the Volatility S&P 500 Index. A failure of the price to fill the gap risks rekindling the volatility in the short-term future. As such, it is something we are paying attention to. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
10
The Bear Steepener Analysis US10Y/US01YLooking ahead to the upcoming week and my market outlook: Let's begin by examining the yield curve spread, which consistently correlates with the bear steepener. This spread provides us with a valuable timetable or countdown, usually spanning 1-3 months before a breakout occurs. When this breakout happens, it typically signifies that the market has already shifted towards a risk-off sentiment. Similar pattern consolidations/breakouts occurred during most recent systemic risk offs, below is the one we've had during Covid: Dot Com s3.tradingview.com 2008 With the only exception, a major fakeout being the 1995-1998 period. Now, when we consider the VVIX/VIX ratio, it offers a noteworthy perspective on the potential alignment of this bear steepener breakout with the possibility of breaching the bottom support. Barring any unforeseen developments that could disrupt this pattern, it appears that we are receiving indications or early warnings of an impending risk-off event. Additionally, when we look at stocks above the 50-day moving average (MA), it confirms our decision to shift towards the long side just over a week ago. Moreover, there's a chance that this move could trigger a final squeeze. How long might this squeeze persist? My assessment suggests that it still has some room to run, and I would only recommend exercising caution once we start approaching the 60's in this particular indicator.
TVC:US10Y
by EdwinPus