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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

UVXY Greed Fear Volatility 20% in 24 hoursUVXY trades inverse to the general market direction in a leveraged manner. An example of this is shown on the current chart 15 minutes time frame of the price action this week. I have added two indicators the buy low sell high composite and price volume trend to support entries and exits which are typically done on lower time frame charts. On the chart, if a long trade was taken when the BLSH indicator went from red to green on Wednesday afternoon and was held for about 22 hours until price peaked coincident with both the BLSH indicator and the PVT both peaking, the trade would have closed with 20% realized profit. Overall, I will watch UVXY as a means to trade any further downturn in the general market.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by AwesomeAvani
Accumulation of VIX to lead to a spike within the next week I'm back with yet another of my VIX bowl action posts. There's so much going on around the globe that could trigger a spike. Markets are seeing negative RSI divergence across many indices on monthly, weekly and daily charts. This time we could go even higher and reach the resistance above. But I'm being conservative in my target and aiming at the diagonal trend line. I've linked my previous VIX bowl post that was extremely successful. Good luck!
CBOE:VIXLong
by SkyTrees
5
VIX is back to the pre-2020 market crash levelsIn early June 2023, we noted that VIX reached levels that preceded the 2022 market meltdown. After that, the index continued lower and advanced toward levels unseen since January 2020 (levels that preceded the 2020 market crash). The current low value of VIX reflects extremely high complacency in the market and the growing dismissal of any economic downturn on the horizon. With many people already thinking that recession is averted and the market is poised to continue only up, we wonder whether the time for contrarian play is slowly approaching us. As a result, we will monitor the market very closely and look for signs that will prompt us to action. We will update our thoughts on the subject with the emergence of new significant developments. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
4
What is the $VIX showing us?Good Morning SMALL THREAD While we did call the NASDAQ:NDX weakness & top, at that time we didn't think it would be as bad as it got, at least I didn't. Last year we really thought TVC:VIX would break out & the markets would collapse. Our original expectations didn't pan out but we, mostly I, changed as more data came in. We called a bunch of bounces & tops, ALL DOCUMENTED, BUT our best call was becoming BULLISH in late September on DJ:DJI & Bullish on NASDAQ:NDX in October. Since then we've been cautious Bull with a few bearish calls but ultimately, we were/are still bullish. During this time the TVC:VIX was forming a HUGE Symmetrical Triangle that we posted on countless times. We were biased and thought the TVC:VIX would break out and #stocks would be cremated. Obviously, were bullish after Sept 2022 but we thought there would be an eventual harsh crash that made 2022 like a walk in the park. When #VIX broke down we were SHOCKED! That's when we knew that the can was being kicked further down the road. There's a lot more at play that we've been discussing on occasion. SP:SPX has been on a tear but it is currently in a consolidation phase as seen on a daily chart. However, as you can see, RSI can remain overbought on a weekly for long periods of time. TVC:VIX is slowly closing in on a major support level. While it can break through, IMO, don't think it will do it the 1st time. #VIX will likely get a nice bounce. This bounce will likely be strong and could mean possible weakness for #stocks, soon.
CBOE:VIX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Observing VIXNow a lot of people are posting long ideas that it will blow up. I am framing this idea as neutral. Since we have a contradiction. Consider. 1. The Heikin Ashi weekly candle is consolidating by breaking through a bullish wedge. Yes, it is definitely a very reversal pattern. 2. Two small Kumo clouds (both red and green) are floating over candles. Their size tells us that we don't have much resistance at this level. The Tenkan and Kijun lines are below the clouds, but that's not that important in this situation. What is more important is that the indicator is drawing us a declining red Kumo cloud and we can't tell if it will progress down further. Sometimes these "little red cloud, little green cloud, expanding bigger red cloud" constructions are a very implicit threat. We don't know how much its lower boundary will drop before it marks its end...And note again, this is a weekly chart, not some 4 hour chart...We'll have to watch all spring to see what happens. 3. Next. SQZMOM shows descending red bars and two gray crosses, which we have not seen for a long time. This does not augur well for the upside. In fact, on the weekly Heikin Ashi grey crosses were 3 years ago... Only with green bars and they worked out in full... SQZMOM tells us about weak growth prospects of the VIX. 4. However, we see a hidden bullish divergence on Stochastic RSI. This comes into contradiction with point 3. 5. I also looked at the latitude indication which indicates that the highs have started to dominate the lows. This is a bullish sign. But it is also inconsistent with points 2 and 3. We'll just have to watch to see. 32.4 level is extremely important.
TVC:VIX
by averkie_skila
7
VIX/VIX3M: Tricks for Reading the VIX Part IIPRIMARY CHART: S&P 500 (SPX) with VIX/VIX3M ratio in subgraph on a weekly time frame Tricks for Reading the VIX Part I SquishTrade's original 2022 article on VIX entitled "Tricks for Reading the VIX" covered the basic concepts of the CBOE's Volatility Index (VIX) to aid in understanding and interpreting VIX and its behavior relative to the S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ). It also explained generally how VIX values are derived, reviewed a few historical examples, and identified the historical mean (20 VIX) as well as some outliers. Furthermore, the original piece delved into the usual inverse relationship between VIX and SPX. But in its later sections, it explained how divergences from this usual inverse relationship between VIX and SPX may distinguish lasting market bottoms from interim trading lows. If interested, the following link provides the original article on VIX. A couple of points from this original article on VIX may be beneficial to readers who are less familiar with VIX. VIX is a measure of implied volatility for SPX derived from the pricing of a wide range of options prices with approximately 30 days to expiration. Specifically, only SPX options with more than 23 days and less than 37 days to expiration are included. CBOE introduced the VIX in 1993 to measure the options market's expectation of implied volatility from at-the-money SPX index options (where strikes of the options are at or very close to where the underlying index price is trading). But ten years later (2003), CBOE updated the VIX formula to track not only at-the-money options, but a wide range of SPX options focusing now on out-of-the-money strikes. CBOE's website contains a helpful FAQ on VIX here . A relevant excerpt with more detail on how VIX is calculated is available in a footnote (FN 1) at the end of this post. The last two concepts for this introduction are important. SPX implied volatility, which is what VIX is intended to measure, and realized volatility should be distinguished as they are not the same. And VIX index values tend toward mean-reversion in the long term rather than trending action. But trends within VIX can nevertheless be identified within the broader context of its mean-reverting character. SPY_Master has an excellent chart covering a recent VIX trend shown as Supplementary Chart A: Supplementary Chart A VIX/VIX3M: Tricks for Reading the VIX Part II In this sequel to the original post, SquishTrade will cover the VIX/VIX3M ratio. To understand this ratio, it is important to understand basic concepts about VIX, its interpretation, and its inverse relationship as well as excepts to that relationship, which topics are covered in the prior article or elsewhere on trustworthy financial websites including CBOE's. VIX3M Basics Furthermore, VIX3M is vital to understanding the VIX/VIX3M ratio. VIX3M is essentially a 3-month forward implied volatility index for SPX. CBOE's brief description of VIX3M index follows: "The Cboe 3-Month Volatility IndexSM (VIX3M) is designed to be a constant measure of 3-month implied volatility of the S&P 500® (SPX) Index options. (On September 18, 2017 the ticker symbol for the Cboe 3-Month Volatility Index was changed from “VXV” to “VIX3M”).The VIX3M Index has tended to be less volatile than the Cboe Volatility Index® (VIX®), which measures one-month implied volatility. Using the VIX3M and VIX indexes together provides useful insight into the term structure of S&P 500 (SPX) option implied volatility." The term-structure of implied volatility (IV) means the relationship, or comparison, between different implied-volatility measures based on different terms (time periods) for measuring implied volatility such as a one-month period, three-month period, six-month period, or one-year period. Term structure can be also understood by remembering that this term is used to describe the yield curve, varying interest rates on risk-free government bonds (same type of security) with different maturities ranging from short term to long term. In short, the ratio of VIX/VIX3M allows insight into the shorter end of the IV term structure by allowing investors and traders to see both the 30-day (one-month) and the 90-day (three-month) outlook for expected volatility for SPX based on its index options premiums. VIX and VIX3M Comparison VIX3M and VIX can be distinguished based on the time frame as discussed in the prior paragraphs. One is a constant measure of approximately 30-day IV for SPX, and the other is a constant measure of approximately 3-month IV for SPX. VIX3M tends to have higher values than VIX. This is because VIX3M considers longer-dated option prices than VIX considers. The exception occurs at significant SPX lows, including interm trading lows both in bull-market retracements and in bear markets, and in more lasting bear-market lows. VIX tends to be more volatile than VIX3M. This is true even though VIX3M tends to have slightly higher values. The final point of comparison between VIX and VIX3M is that two indices are highly correlated as one might expect. This can be seen from placing them both on a chart together. Try placing them both on a chart together in TradingView, which may help some visualize and remember the close relationship between VIX and VIX3M by working with the symbols themselves. It's relatively easy to do in a couple steps. Load a chart of VIX. Then click the plus symbol next to the ticker symbol on the left upper corner of the TradingView chart screen, ad then add VIX3M to the chart. Be sure to click "New Price Scale" option when selecting VIX3M as the new symbol to be compared. VIX/VIX3M Ratio Interpretation The Primary Chart above shows the VIX/VIX3M ratio over the past six years of market history. This ratio is included in the subgraph below the SPX price chart. This chart uses a weekly time frame to ensure the data can be viewed over several years with ease. Notice how peaks in this ratio correlate to some extent with lows in SPX. Interestingly, peaks were higher in the left half of the chart between 2018 and 2020. Peaks in the current bear market have been lower relative to prior peaks in this ratio. Many peaks have been labeled on the Primary Chart for ease of reference. As discussed, VIX3M tends to have higher values than VIX. This is because VIX3M considers longer-dated option prices than VIX considers. To understand the VIX/VIX3M ratio, it helps to focus on the exception to the general rule that VIX3M tends to have higher values than VIX. The exception occurs typically when an SPX selloff causes a spike higher in VIX relative to VIX3M. Why does VIX spike higher on a relative basis, causing the ratio to rise above 1.00 / 1.10? When short-term panic occurs in markets around trading lows (or final lows as well), VIX outperforms VIX3M because VIX focuses on 30-day IV and VIX3M focuses on 90-day IV (longer-term on the IV term structure). This causes the term structure to invert briefly when VIX rises above VIX3M (which is the same as VIX3M trading at a discount to VIX). When VIX spikes above VIX3M even briefly, it shows that the market expects IV farther out on the term structure at three months to be lower than current implied volatility levels. In plain English, this means the market expects volatility to fall in several months relative to current 30-day forward levels (based on SPX options prices 23 to 37 days until expiration). And when the IV term structure normalizes as it always does after an inversion, meaning that short-term vol is lower than longer-term vol generally, this means that VIX has to fall relative to VIX3M. And remember that when VIX falls, SPX rises given the usual inverse relationship between the two. Don't forget that exceptions to this usual inverse relationship occur when VIX and SPX move in tandem, and such aberrations in the normal VIX-SPX relationship are crucial to notice as discussed in the original 2022 article on VIX. Finally, here is a chart showing a close-up view of the bear market starting in January 2022 with VIX/VIX3M shown simultaneously. The highs in this ratio were lower than prior highs at market lows over the prior decade or two. Highs have been approximately 1.05 to 1.11. Does this mean vol sellers are more opportunistic and effective? Or does it mean that we haven't seen a capitulatory low? Either way, it helps to see the current bear market levels. Enjoy! Supplementary Chart B Please see footnote 2 (FN 2) for this section on interpreting VIX/VIX3M. FOOTNOTES FN 1 Note that the formula is complicated and most likely accessible only to those still in higher-level math concentrations in their education, or those working continuously in a math field. The rest of us who have seen a few years pass since our math education must rely on the detailed verbal explanation of the formula. The formula, moreover, is unnecessary to reading and interpreting VIX values, trends, and mean reversion. CBOE's FAQ on VIX, linked above, contains the following helpful and detailed information about how the VIX Index is calculated: "Cboe Options Exchange® (Cboe Options®) calculates the VIX Index using standard SPX options and weekly SPX options that are listed for trading on Cboe Options. Standard SPX options expire on the third Friday of each month and weekly SPX options expire on all other Fridays. Only SPX options with Friday expirations are used to calculate the VIX Index.* Only SPX options with more than 23 days and less than 37 days to the Friday SPX expiration are used to calculate the VIX Index. These SPX options are then weighted to yield a constant maturity 30-day measure of the expected volatility of the S&P 500 Index. Cboe Options lists SPX options that expire on days other than Fridays. Non-Friday SPX expirations are not used to calculate the VIX Index. Intraday VIX Index values are based on snapshots of SPX option bid/ask quotes every 15 seconds and are intended to provide an indication of the fair market price of expected volatility at particular points in time. As such, these VIX Index values are often referred to as "indicative" or "spot" values. Cboe Options currently calculates VIX Index spot values between 3:15 a.m. ET and 9:15 a.m. ET (Cboe GTH session), and between 9:30 a.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET (Cboe RTH session) according to the VIX Index formula that is set forth in the White Paper." FN 2 The source for some of the key concepts in this section was a January 2018 article on CBOE's website blog on the VIX / Trader Talk, and the article referenced was "Vol 411 Follow Up: More on the VIX3M / VIX Ratio." This article appears to no longer be available. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction. Thank you for reading. If this post added clarity or prompted additional thoughts on the technicals of SPY, please comment below!
SP:SPXEducation
by SquishTrade
47
$SPY - A Blip to the Extended RallyAMEX:SPY continues its strong stock rally following the #FOMC announcement, squeezing shorts and maintaining a daily relative strength (RS) of 77 as bond yields fall. Momentum remains robust, but technicals are starting to suggest a pullback is overdue. Pre-market conditions appear relatively flat, so we'll have to wait and see. I expect a meaningful decline towards the $430 level starting next week with TVC:VIX showing signs of a spike and especially after witnessing a month of upside movement.
AMEX:SPY
by theapearmy
UVXY Potential Early Bear Flag Channel Entry at Moving AveragesThe UVXY is currently trading at the 89 Day EMA among other Moving Averages that it's often reversed from; if it reverses from here again and hits the bottom of the Potential Parallel Channel that will confirm the Validity of the Parallel Channel. If it breaks down from this Parallel Channel that will be a Bearflag breakdown that could take it down anywhere betwen the 1.618 to even the 2.618 which should signal a rally in the SPX. For the time being this is a speculative early entry.
CBOE:UVXYShort
by RizeSenpai
UVXY all in potentialIt’s looking like we can trust the bottom side of this falling wedge. This time around It also lines up with the indexes double top so we could see a decent charge upwards. I already own shares, and I’m picking up more on the open today. I’m looking to take profits in a few weeks based on previous bounces/timeframes. Could be something to hold, although I would suggest taking your profits near the 5$ range (top of the wedge) and pick up more when it chops. Could pop higher but I wouldn’t bank on that, don’t be greedy here.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by ImminentDanger
4
This signal on VIX can sustain the S&P500 rally.We don't often look at VIX but the times we do, it never fails to offer valuable insight regarding the long-term factors on stock indices trends. Since March, may have left wondered why the S&P500 (blue trend-line) has took off so considerably without any meaningful pull-back. Well despite the prevailing fundamentals surrounding the market overall, VIX (candles) has considerably calmed down, meaning that the market volatility has decreased, something that accelerated in early April when it broke below a Higher Lows trend-line that was holding for 5 years (since the November 2017 bottom). This is a strong reason that keep adding fuel to this S&P500 rally and can continue to sustain it for as long as VIX declines. In fact the last time we saw VIX breaking below such a strong long-term Higher Lows trend-line was in July 2009, four months after the bottom of the 2008 Housing Crisis. The index has started its long-term recovery into a historically long and strong Bull Cycle and every spike on VIX was a medium-term pull-back on the S&P500 and a buy opportunity. This fractal similarities is additional proof that the index is decisively past its 2022 Bear Cycle and is most likely starting a new multi-year Bull Cycle. If you are a long-term investor, pay attention to VIX's spikes in order to take advantage of medium-term buy opportunities. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:VIX
by TradingShot
7
VIX is back to the 2021 level that preceeded market meltdownVIX fell below $16 after trying to take hold of $20 last week. The current value of VIX coincides with that, which it contained in November 2021, just before the market meltdown began. Taking into consideration that interest rates are nothing like they were in 2021 and the rally in stocks has been thus far driven mainly by a handful of companies, we are growing increasingly worried about the complacency present in the market. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
8
VIX - Elliott Wave Illustrates a Potential Bottoming PatternI've been tracking VIX since 2020. I believe that VIX is in a bottoming pattern and will start the next leg up to a new high soon. VIX doesn't act like an equity. Mainly because it isn't an equity. Its waves don't move like an equity. It usually operates in 3-wave segments over longer timeframes whereas equities operate in both 5-wave and 3-wave segments. Elliott Wave corrective patterns move in 3-wave segments. You can see a series of these 3-wave moves on this chart leading up to the previous high in early 2022 with light red Wave A. Following that top, I expected a 3-wave corrective move back down. Instead, we've gotten a very choppy, almost Darvas Box looking structure. I've come to realize that this is actually an Elliot Wave triangle pattern (labeled with circled numbers in pink) and I am expecting a bottom in the last segment of it, pink Wave Circle e, which will finish off the light red B wave. It should then start a 5-wave pattern back up to finish off the larger degree 3-wave structure ending in light red C. I've shown some basic extension levels to help predict the landing spot. The first is a 76-100% extension of the size of the light red A wave from the expected bottom of light red Wave B (orange). The second is a 123%-161.8% (the golden ratio) extension of the pink circle d wave of our triangle from the expected bottom of pink circle e (yellow). Each of these can be correct, and they could both be correct. Alternatively, since markets are merely a battle of sentiment, VIX could land somewhere else. We are, remember, looking at a volatility index that tracks S&P options. And the S&P is in a topping pattern of some sort of a bear market bounce corrective wave. But ultimately, there are two channels I've added to illustrate why I think light red Wave C will land where and when it does. The first connects the bottom in July 2021 to the expected bottom it is currently working on, with the parallel top line connecting the top of light red Wave A to the expected landing point of light red Wave C. This channel is in green. The second channel covers the trajectory of the light red Wave A from bottom to top and then extends its parallel companion from the expected bottom that we are currently working on. That channel is in blue. Both of these channels perfectly intercept each other at a key MAJOR Elliott Wave fib level that usually indicates a C-wave end (the 100% extension of Wave A from the bottom of Wave B). And it also happens to line up with the timing that I've predicted for the next bottoming event in the S&P 500 (not shown here). Lastly, all of this lines up with the fact that RSI is clearly in a bottoming pattern on daily candles and showing a potentially oversold state. There are many calculations not shown here so as to not clog up the view. I warrant that the information created and published by me on TradingView is not prohibited, doesn't constitute investment advice, and isn't created solely for qualified investors. My analysis is not a recommendation for a specific trade. -mazag08 - TastyWavez 2022
CBOE:VIXLong
by mazag08
6