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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

All in the Stride, 2 Jun 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities shot up to continue the upward march. A Buy signal was triggered and executed. The previous Short position was flipped into a Buy but only after suffering further loss. Clearly the Strategy(ies) are confidently Bullish. ➤ If we look at the movement of the S&P500 equity index since the March bottom we can observe the character of the movement so far. Prices initially accelerated up into April. It proceeded higher with a two steps up, one step down type of progression. ➤ The step down has become shallower and shallower. This sort of behaviour can be thought of as people chasing the market or being more confident to buy the market. They are not willing to wait for lower prices. This is more obvious with the movement in the NASDAQ and mega tech stocks. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Surely that only leads to one conclusion: Markets are headed higher. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Inching Higher, 1 Jun 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Markets pulled back but in the short-term, it is still zig-zagging upwards. It is inching higher and so is the hurdle required to proof the case for a new Bull market. ➤ For May, the monthly price failed to close above the Feb high just like in prior months. It has however put in a place a higher high. The higher high at 422.58 on the SPY is the new monthly hurdle that needs to be eclipsed. It is both hope and a struggle. The hope is for a new Bull market, the struggle is to get there. Picture a tiring swimmer that is treading water, getting closer to safety but barely keeping afloat. ➤ I hold a small short position. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Pricing is setting up for a high conviction short opportunity but I also said that many times in May. It failed to materialise into a trade. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
"Bearly" Alive, 31 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Bulls may have horns instead of FAANGS but it is just an effective weapon. By some measures the Bear market is over and the Bull market phase is in its infancy. ➤ For me, a strong monthly close in May above the February high is that confirmation. Such a close would reverse the downtrend on the monthly chart. A failure to do so will keep the Bears alive...barely. ➤ The only threat to the Bull market story is in the lack of breadth of stocks contributing to the rise of equities. A strong market is usually composed of multiple sectors leading the charge. Here we only have a very select group of mega tech stocks. To breathe new life into the Bearish narrative, the FAANG bubble needs to implode almost immediately along with the AI hype. ➤ I hold a small short position. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 FAANGS are sharp. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
💡 SPX Seasonality: Sell in May and Go Away. Here's Memorial DayMemorial Day (originally known as Decoration Day) is a federal holiday in the United States for honoring and mourning the U.S. military personnel who have died while serving in the United States Armed Forces. For nowadays, it is observed on the last Monday of May, and this year it is observed on May 29, 2023. Memorial Day is considered a U.S. stock market holiday, which means the Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange will be closed Monday, May 29. What is Sell in May and Go Away? Sell in May and Go Away refers to a well-known adage in the business and financial world. The phrase refers to an investment strategy for stocks based on the theory that the stock market underperforms in the four-month period between May and October (since June until September). In contrast, the 3-months period since November and until January sees much stronger stock market growth. For many past years I used many other websites to analyze seasonality of major stocks, indices, Fx pairs and commodities. Thanks to TradingView community and its awesome @tradeforopp wizard, the script Seasonality has changed the rules . As it described on Indicator webpage , This Seasonality indicator is meant to provide insight into an asset's average performance over specified periods of time (Daily, Monthly, and Quarterly). How the Sell in May and Go Away Strategy Works If investors follow the Sell in May and Go Away strategy, they sell stocks at the End of May (or during the late spring) and have the proceeds held in cash. Then, the investors would invest again in early October (or in the late autumn). That means, the investors would avoid holding stock during the summer months. History of Sell in May and Go Away 👉 “Sell in May and Go Away” has its origins in England or, more specifically, in London’s financial district. The original phrase was “Sell in May and go away, come back on St. Leger’s Day,” with the latter event referring to a horse race. 👉 Established in 1776, the St. Leger Stakes is one of the most well-known horse races in England, being the last leg of the British Triple Crown and is run at the Doncaster Racecourse in South Yorkshire in September of every year. In its original context, the adage recommended that British investors, aristocrats, and bankers should sell their shares in May, relax and enjoy the summer months while escaping the London heat, and return to the stock market in the autumn after the St. Leger Stakes. 👉 In the U.S., some investors have adopted a similar strategy by refraining from investing during the period between Memorial Day in May and Labor Day in September. Relevant Statistics and Considerations 👉 Historical data have generally supported the “Sell in May and Go Away” adage over the many years. The S&P 500 Index has recorded a cumulative three-month average annualized return of more than 10% in the period between November to January, based on the statistics data collected over the past 151 years. 👉 At the other side, S&P500 an average annualized gain is about Zero between May and October (June till September), based on the same statistics data collected over the past 151 years. 👉 Seasonal factors play an important role here, as end-of-year bonuses and the Santa Claus Rally, which refers to the stock market’s tendency to rally over the last few weeks of December into the first few months of the new year. Some theories behind it include increased holiday shopping, optimism and morale fueled by the Thanksgiving Day, winter holidays, or investors settling their books before going on holiday. February and March are relatively mild in terms of growth. The stock market could lifts in April and May due to the anticipated release of the first-quarter reports (for example, like after recently announced Q1'23 NASDAQ:NVDA report). 👉 In contrast, the summer time tends to be less optimistic, with first-quarter results over and many people spending less time paying attention to stocks as they go on summer vacation. In addition, specifically in election years, there tends to be a weakness of the stock market in September due to the uncertainty of the election results. The conclusion 👉 It should be noted that returns have often varied in different time periods, and there have been many exceptions. 👉 However the upper chart (SPX Seasonality) clearly illustrates that based on the statistics data collected over the past 151 years, the timeframe since June until September, averagely is the worst time to invest into SP500 Index, while June and September are the worst performer months over the all history of S&P500 since 1870s. 👉 Memorial Day could be considered as a starting point for the strategy, where the negative return of the following business day (or business week in a case of no significant change) after Memorial Day usually predicts the further stock market trends and directions until October (begin of fourth quarter).
CBOE:SPX
by Pandorra
4
🟩 VIX stays low and SP500 tightensWe've been closely observing the SPX and VIX charts in recent weeks, and we're seeing some compelling signals that indicate a possible bullish market ahead. 🔍 SPX: Identifying the Firm Bottom and Key Resistance Levels Over the last eight months, the SPX has exhibited a tightening pattern, suggesting the establishment of a firm bottom. This has been particularly evident since October, with the index stabilizing and showing less volatility. Now, what we're looking for is the SPX to clear two key resistance levels at 4200 and 4248. If we see a clearance of these levels, it would be a significant step in the right direction and a strong indication of a potential uptrend. 🌡️ VIX: Low Volatility as a Bullish Sign Complementing this analysis, we've been keeping a close eye on the VIX, which is often referred to as the "fear index". In the past 18 months, the VIX made a low point and, importantly, it has remained low around the 18 level. This sustained low level of volatility is a positive sign for the bulls. High levels of the VIX typically indicate investor fear and market uncertainty, whereas low levels suggest investor confidence and a potentially bullish market. 📝 Conclusion: Confluence of Promising Signs In summary, we're seeing a confluence of promising signs from the SPX and the VIX. The SPX is showing a firm bottom and is approaching key resistance levels, while the VIX is maintaining a low level, indicating reduced market fear. Together, these indicators could be pointing to a bullish market ahead.
SP:SPXLong
by TintinTrading
Significant Divergence in equity markets and leading indicatorsObservable for weeks now, and recently, the divergence is much more pronounced. What I am referring to are that the equity markets appear to be more and more bullish, breaking out of trendlines; while the leading indicators (TIP, TLT, JNK and inversely VXX) show an imminent deterioration, about to breakdown of trendlines. The combined US equity markets and particularly the NASDAQ itself is very bullish, spiking up and hard in the last two weeks, extending further from mean. So, going forward the next couple of weeks, either one of two needs to happen. EITHER, the equity indexes continue the upward surge and the leading indicators reverse course to align and exceed (and return to be leading indicators); OR the equity indexes breakdown really hard to converge with the leading indicators. Watch for the latter, as the leading indicators break down of the trend line and show commitment. Then the equity markets may give a swift reversion into convergence and confluence. There are many ways to look at this and many more parameters to add in, but keeping it as simple as I would, perhaps waiting and watching for the next couple of weeks might be better than taking a committed position. Stay safe, keep a watchful look, be ready...
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Auguraltrader
Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact, 28th May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Traders hate weekends and public holidays, probably more so than losing trades. ➤ Equities were up strongly on Friday. I find it curious that with such strong bullish passion it failed to close above the recent high. I might be wrong, but it looks like a classic set-up: Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact. The rumour is that the debt ceiling shenigans will be resolved...it is now a fact, at least "in principle" with a final vote in Congress. ➤ Clearly with that expectation and resolution, everything is in my opinon already "priced in". Could there be a surprise that falls short of a successful vote? This would be unlikely given the confident signaling. Otherwise, it would create utter chaos in the short-term. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Sell in June and go away? EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
Spx 🌊Salutations, At this present moment, I find it challenging to elucidate the precise reasoning as to why the S&P 500 was poised to recede back to the melancholy depths of the pandemic lows. Nevertheless, I can confidently postulate the resurgence of a risk-on environment in the aftermath. ideally as we approach the yuletide chill of Christmas Eve at the conclusion of this present year, I cast my net at $2,100 as the absolute nadir of this grizzly mark-down-phase. --- Upon a successful breach of this strategic area, I am further prophesizing a subsequent phoenix-like rise, elevating us to a commanding $7,777 threshold as we stride valiantly into the year 2030 through a vortex of an ending diagonal. --- 2024 - $2,111 2030 - $7,777 2035 - $12,222 ☿
SP:SPXLong
by amethystphantom
1
I've Got the Magic, 26 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 "I've got the magic in me Every time I touch that track, it turns into gold Now everybody knows I've got the magic in me When I hit the floor, the girls come snapping at me Now everybody wants some crystal magic" I'm borrowing those song lyrics by The Treblemakers from the Movie: Pitch Perfect. ➤ Equities did indeed gap higher to close the previous days' price gap and magically also closed the gap it created during today's open. Killing two birds (I mean gaps) with one stone. ➤ Nvidia's share price also played with the AI magic trick for a huge price gap of it's own. Will this gap get filled? I'm 💯% sure it will but not in one day. ➤ That being said, that bit of magic helped me out of my long position with a teeny tiny profit leaving behind a small short position. Price is setting up nicely for a Short move. If the price path that I imagine magically comes to fruition it should look something like this: Prices are re-testing the recent high by moving slightly up or down or sideways for a couple of more days prior to the real move lower. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 I'm looking forward to seeing more magic tricks. 🪄 EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
1
Watch the Gap, 25 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities gapped lower but found short-term support at the 410 level on the SPY. The VIX accelerated higher. In after-hours trading the price has bounced higher. It would be interesting to see if this is sustained until market open. It could lead to the filling of the gap and in doing so creating another gap. Are you following my gapping explanation? If not, look at the chart. You'll note there are a couple of other unfilled gaps lower as marked by the blue arrows. These tend to get filled over time. ➤ Without prior knowledge of the after hours bounce, from the naked eye it does look price wants to bounce higher given the combination of 1) hitting a support level 2) deceleration in the drop (reducing bar/candle size) ➤ I do favour the notion that the immediate gap should be filled. That will hopefully get me out of my long trade for a profit. If that is fulfilled, I'll be looking for a potential Short entry shortly after if things play out as expected. ➤ I remain positioned fairly neutral for now. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 The favoured view is for price to straddle lower. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
😀 SVB Crisis Is Over?! What S&P500 and VIX Are Talking AboutThe stock market just flashed the first sign that investors think the Silicon Valley Bank crisis is over. 👉 The CBOE Volatility Index VIX closed below the 20 level on Wednesday, for the first time since SVB - The Silicon Valley Bank collapsed. That is basically could be a constructive sign and is certainly counter to the general gloom of investors post SVB-failure. 👉 The VIX term structure is also back into normal contango. This normalization of spread is often a sign investors see the worst of the crisis behind. The lower chart illustrates 3-months futures spread between VXN2023 a July, 2023 VIX Futures contract and the nearest - VXJ2023 - April, 2023 VIX Futures contract, that is three months ahead of that, marking that the reddish days are over. 👉 S&P500 Technical picture indicates the breakdown of reversed Head and Shoulders Chart Pattern structure is happening. SPX is above weekly SMA (200) as it got the support early on Q4'22. 52-weeks simple moving average is trying to hold on above, for the 12th year in a row. 👉 If investors expect an imminent financial crisis but one doesn't materialize, the change in sentiment will help drive stocks higher as investors unwind bearish positions and get more bullish . All-in, with stocks higher over the past six months since the mid-October low, so further upside could be ahead. If stocks do not make a new low post this crisis, the bears could capitulate.
SP:SPX
by Pandorra
15
D for Distribution, 24 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 "D is for Down Like the Market today D is for Distribution We are on our way" ➤ Equities fell back into the recent consolidation. As discussed in yesterday's note, the price action now favours the bearish view. Price tends to fall to the bottom of the range. ➤ Assuming we are in the Distribution phase, the path lower can be abrupt or staggered. The abrupt case sees prices shoot straight through and below the low of the consolidation. The speed that happens displays the urgency of Sellers. ➤ A staggered path will see re-tests with prices briefly bouncing higher along the way down. It normally starts with the re-test of the high of the range. Each time the re-test will fail and prices fall further. It is at a lower speed with less urgency. ➤ Given the narrow range of the consolidation, it would only require a couple of large down days to find the bottom of the range. I'm not expecting a slow grind whatever path the price takes. ➤ Interestingly, I have received a buy signal and this has been dutifully executed. It is a small position to play the "re-test". Incidentally this hedges out the pre-existing small short position. Overall the portfolio is fairly neutral. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 The Distribution can only be confirmed after the fact. i.e. price breaks below the range and keeps falling. Anything before that is just conjecture. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
Hesistancy, 23 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Yesterday I discussed the potential bullish narrative resulting from a "re-accumulation" phase. Today I'd like to explore the bearish narrative in the form of "distribution". ➤ Distribution is the result of Whales reducing or selling out of their previously accumulated positions. Obviously, they wish to get the best price when exiting. This can be done by drip-feeding sells as prices push higher. The last buyer is normally the retail investor who is late to the party. Once the initial rush of retail buying starts to dry up, a consolidation forms where the demand and supply is largely balanced. This is where Whales start unloading larger positions helping to keep a ceiling on the price. ➤ Looking at the current price action, we can either view it as a re-test of the breakout (bullish scenario) or it is "hesistancy" - hesitancy at the resistance (yes I made that word up). It may result in the price reversing back into the range (an "upthrust" action). This could signal the stage of the distribution phase at which Whales start dumping the remainder of their positions indiscriminantly as retail buyers dry up. The result is a quick cascading fall. ➤ This hesistancy has forced me out of my long position for a minor loss, one of the outcomes I outlined before. My trade signals can be very sensistive even to minute price movements. I hold a small remaining short position as part of the secondary strategy. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 So is it accumulation or distribution? EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro