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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

Significant Divergence in equity markets and leading indicatorsObservable for weeks now, and recently, the divergence is much more pronounced. What I am referring to are that the equity markets appear to be more and more bullish, breaking out of trendlines; while the leading indicators (TIP, TLT, JNK and inversely VXX) show an imminent deterioration, about to breakdown of trendlines. The combined US equity markets and particularly the NASDAQ itself is very bullish, spiking up and hard in the last two weeks, extending further from mean. So, going forward the next couple of weeks, either one of two needs to happen. EITHER, the equity indexes continue the upward surge and the leading indicators reverse course to align and exceed (and return to be leading indicators); OR the equity indexes breakdown really hard to converge with the leading indicators. Watch for the latter, as the leading indicators break down of the trend line and show commitment. Then the equity markets may give a swift reversion into convergence and confluence. There are many ways to look at this and many more parameters to add in, but keeping it as simple as I would, perhaps waiting and watching for the next couple of weeks might be better than taking a committed position. Stay safe, keep a watchful look, be ready...
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Auguraltrader
Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact, 28th May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Traders hate weekends and public holidays, probably more so than losing trades. ➤ Equities were up strongly on Friday. I find it curious that with such strong bullish passion it failed to close above the recent high. I might be wrong, but it looks like a classic set-up: Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact. The rumour is that the debt ceiling shenigans will be resolved...it is now a fact, at least "in principle" with a final vote in Congress. ➤ Clearly with that expectation and resolution, everything is in my opinon already "priced in". Could there be a surprise that falls short of a successful vote? This would be unlikely given the confident signaling. Otherwise, it would create utter chaos in the short-term. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Sell in June and go away? EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
Spx 🌊Salutations, At this present moment, I find it challenging to elucidate the precise reasoning as to why the S&P 500 was poised to recede back to the melancholy depths of the pandemic lows. Nevertheless, I can confidently postulate the resurgence of a risk-on environment in the aftermath. ideally as we approach the yuletide chill of Christmas Eve at the conclusion of this present year, I cast my net at $2,100 as the absolute nadir of this grizzly mark-down-phase. --- Upon a successful breach of this strategic area, I am further prophesizing a subsequent phoenix-like rise, elevating us to a commanding $7,777 threshold as we stride valiantly into the year 2030 through a vortex of an ending diagonal. --- 2024 - $2,111 2030 - $7,777 2035 - $12,222 ☿
SP:SPXLong
by notoriousbids
1
I've Got the Magic, 26 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 "I've got the magic in me Every time I touch that track, it turns into gold Now everybody knows I've got the magic in me When I hit the floor, the girls come snapping at me Now everybody wants some crystal magic" I'm borrowing those song lyrics by The Treblemakers from the Movie: Pitch Perfect. ➤ Equities did indeed gap higher to close the previous days' price gap and magically also closed the gap it created during today's open. Killing two birds (I mean gaps) with one stone. ➤ Nvidia's share price also played with the AI magic trick for a huge price gap of it's own. Will this gap get filled? I'm 💯% sure it will but not in one day. ➤ That being said, that bit of magic helped me out of my long position with a teeny tiny profit leaving behind a small short position. Price is setting up nicely for a Short move. If the price path that I imagine magically comes to fruition it should look something like this: Prices are re-testing the recent high by moving slightly up or down or sideways for a couple of more days prior to the real move lower. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 I'm looking forward to seeing more magic tricks. 🪄 EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
1
Watch the Gap, 25 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities gapped lower but found short-term support at the 410 level on the SPY. The VIX accelerated higher. In after-hours trading the price has bounced higher. It would be interesting to see if this is sustained until market open. It could lead to the filling of the gap and in doing so creating another gap. Are you following my gapping explanation? If not, look at the chart. You'll note there are a couple of other unfilled gaps lower as marked by the blue arrows. These tend to get filled over time. ➤ Without prior knowledge of the after hours bounce, from the naked eye it does look price wants to bounce higher given the combination of 1) hitting a support level 2) deceleration in the drop (reducing bar/candle size) ➤ I do favour the notion that the immediate gap should be filled. That will hopefully get me out of my long trade for a profit. If that is fulfilled, I'll be looking for a potential Short entry shortly after if things play out as expected. ➤ I remain positioned fairly neutral for now. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 The favoured view is for price to straddle lower. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
😀 SVB Crisis Is Over?! What S&P500 and VIX Are Talking AboutThe stock market just flashed the first sign that investors think the Silicon Valley Bank crisis is over. 👉 The CBOE Volatility Index VIX closed below the 20 level on Wednesday, for the first time since SVB - The Silicon Valley Bank collapsed. That is basically could be a constructive sign and is certainly counter to the general gloom of investors post SVB-failure. 👉 The VIX term structure is also back into normal contango. This normalization of spread is often a sign investors see the worst of the crisis behind. The lower chart illustrates 3-months futures spread between VXN2023 a July, 2023 VIX Futures contract and the nearest - VXJ2023 - April, 2023 VIX Futures contract, that is three months ahead of that, marking that the reddish days are over. 👉 S&P500 Technical picture indicates the breakdown of reversed Head and Shoulders Chart Pattern structure is happening. SPX is above weekly SMA (200) as it got the support early on Q4'22. 52-weeks simple moving average is trying to hold on above, for the 12th year in a row. 👉 If investors expect an imminent financial crisis but one doesn't materialize, the change in sentiment will help drive stocks higher as investors unwind bearish positions and get more bullish . All-in, with stocks higher over the past six months since the mid-October low, so further upside could be ahead. If stocks do not make a new low post this crisis, the bears could capitulate.
Editors' picks
SP:SPX
by Pandorra
15
D for Distribution, 24 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 "D is for Down Like the Market today D is for Distribution We are on our way" ➤ Equities fell back into the recent consolidation. As discussed in yesterday's note, the price action now favours the bearish view. Price tends to fall to the bottom of the range. ➤ Assuming we are in the Distribution phase, the path lower can be abrupt or staggered. The abrupt case sees prices shoot straight through and below the low of the consolidation. The speed that happens displays the urgency of Sellers. ➤ A staggered path will see re-tests with prices briefly bouncing higher along the way down. It normally starts with the re-test of the high of the range. Each time the re-test will fail and prices fall further. It is at a lower speed with less urgency. ➤ Given the narrow range of the consolidation, it would only require a couple of large down days to find the bottom of the range. I'm not expecting a slow grind whatever path the price takes. ➤ Interestingly, I have received a buy signal and this has been dutifully executed. It is a small position to play the "re-test". Incidentally this hedges out the pre-existing small short position. Overall the portfolio is fairly neutral. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 The Distribution can only be confirmed after the fact. i.e. price breaks below the range and keeps falling. Anything before that is just conjecture. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
Hesistancy, 23 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Yesterday I discussed the potential bullish narrative resulting from a "re-accumulation" phase. Today I'd like to explore the bearish narrative in the form of "distribution". ➤ Distribution is the result of Whales reducing or selling out of their previously accumulated positions. Obviously, they wish to get the best price when exiting. This can be done by drip-feeding sells as prices push higher. The last buyer is normally the retail investor who is late to the party. Once the initial rush of retail buying starts to dry up, a consolidation forms where the demand and supply is largely balanced. This is where Whales start unloading larger positions helping to keep a ceiling on the price. ➤ Looking at the current price action, we can either view it as a re-test of the breakout (bullish scenario) or it is "hesistancy" - hesitancy at the resistance (yes I made that word up). It may result in the price reversing back into the range (an "upthrust" action). This could signal the stage of the distribution phase at which Whales start dumping the remainder of their positions indiscriminantly as retail buyers dry up. The result is a quick cascading fall. ➤ This hesistancy has forced me out of my long position for a minor loss, one of the outcomes I outlined before. My trade signals can be very sensistive even to minute price movements. I hold a small remaining short position as part of the secondary strategy. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 So is it accumulation or distribution? EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
Textbook, 22 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Due to unpopular demand there will be no more rhyme. I guess I will stick with Trading as my full-time job. ➤ We currently have a textbook re-test of the breakout above the recent consolidation in the S&P500. We will need to re-label the consolidation as a "re-accumulation" if it proves to be a bullish. Re-accumulation simply means that the Whales have been buying up while trying to shake loose Weak Hands. This is the only method for increasing their overall holding without moving prices higher (hence the ups and downs within the consolidation). ➤ That being said my secondary strategy has triggered a Short trade. This means we are partially hedged with a large bullish position and a minor bearish position. Remember, these are independent trades. Either both could be right or both wrong or split eachway. It just depends on how price evolves. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Extreme fear in $SPY at close yesterdayIf you track the CBOE:SKEW index, it reveals when put options on the S&P500 ( AMEX:SPY , FX:SPX500 ) are at high levels relative to calls. Sometimes that means there is a big event ahead and the market participants are buying "insurance" against a sharp drop in the market over the life of the options contracts. So, I think it is important to track CBOE:SKEW and to show you what that high CBOE:SKEW looks like in options prices, I have pulled up the prices of one month options on AMEX:SPY from the close yesterday (I did this work at the open today and posted it at my Key Hidden Levels chat room here at TradingView). I have plotted just 3 different options for calls and 3 for puts to show you. The green boxes are the call options that are just "out of the money". The bottom of the box is on the strike price and the height of the box is the option premium which means the top of the box is the "breakeven price" where the AMEX:SPY would have to rise to at expiration to be worth exactly what you pay for it (in this example). I plotted the boxes at the expiration date as shown by the black line at May 19th. 410p = 410 put option = $492/contract ($4.92 per share, but a contract is 100 shares). The 400p is $2.77 or 277 dollars for 1 contract which is 15 points down from the close yesterday. That compares to a 430c or 430 call option at $1.34 or $134/option contract. So the result is the market is willing to pay twice as much to protect against a decline in the market and only half as much to participate in an advance. If you track this data day-to-day and week-to-week or after a large move in CBOE:SKEW you can see how the market is thinking ahead of key news like the Fed Meeting Date on May 3rd. I graphed the Fed Meeting Dates with red-dotted lines to show you some key risk dates ahead. We are also in earnings season here and plenty of fears of recession or inflation, but mostly of the Fed hiking further. I hope this graph is useful to visualize and understand options prices and how the market is positioned at the moment. Cheers, Tim 12:06PM EST, April 19th, 2023
Editors' picks
AMEX:SPYLong
by timwest
19
Breakout, 19 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 "The market has broken out, So has my trading drought, We are back in the action, Will we profit? That is the question." ➤ The colour theme of today's chart background is fire 🔥 because it looks like the equity market is red hot. Is the Bear market over? It's certainly pointing that way. 👆 ➤ To be frank, I'm not a big fan of breakout trades. It probably worked very well during those times before I was born but these days there are more fakeouts. Price may either completely reverse or sometimes retrace the break. Both actions can result in an exit for a loss. ➤ If I lose, I guess I can always quit trading and make money through rhymes...Oh wait there's CHATGPT. ➤ I'm long with a large position ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 MrStocky the Sometime Trader, Rhymer of Words, King of Patience, Protector of Profit (but not yet the King of Copytrading) EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
$SPX looks like it wants to keep goingWith the TVC:VIX breaking the symmetrical triangle, see previous post, to the downside we're seeing high levels of complacency. Much of this doesn't make sense but we've been saying for the longest times that markets are IRRATIONAL! With #SPX breaking we could very well see a bigger push and faster. At the moment they are saying it's just a handful of companies leading, while there is truth in that, equal weight indices are beginning to push higher.
SP:SPX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Averting Disaster, 18 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ S&P500 moved higher to the top of the range. It has been consolidating since 18th April. Wyckoff enthusiasts will note that we may be approaching the latter stages (Phase C). If I were to use a plane analogy, the plane is taxiing towards the runway ready for lift-off. The issue is that we aren't told if we are heading North or South. ➤ Consolidations are tricky to trade, especially if it is narrow (distance between top and bottom of the range. We got caught out at the start of this range with a -1.5% losing trade (early May) and we've been "lucky" to have averted further loss (so far). Yesterday, a Short trade almost materialised. If that had triggered, we would be sitting on a -2.5% (unrealised) loss. ➤ Furthermore, we would have been chopped to pieces if other trades were triggered earlier in this consolidation phase. In that sense, Non-Trades are just as important as actual Trades. Although Non-trades will not make you a profit, it does prevent you from making a loss. ➤ I highlight all this because I take managing risks very seriously. My nickname is the Professional Loss Maker. I am an expert at handling losses. Afterall, you don't want Amateurs to be handling explosives. 💣 ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 MrStocky the Non-Trader. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - NEUTRAL ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
1
A Nose Hair Away, 17 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ S&P500 showed further signs of weakness. Can you guess which stocks prevented the true weakness from showing? We were a nose hair away from triggering a Short trade. In fact I had the order page ready on all my trading platforms. Perhaps we need to wait another day. ➤ To be truthful, I'm glad we haven't been in any trades these past week or so. If a trade(s) had triggered, we would have been chopped to pieces. This may be due to pure luck on our part but I'd like to think that my Strategy didn't trigger those trades to avoid this potential. ➤ It's a totally different story when it comes to individual stock trading. Here trade potential is vast. This is one of the benefits over index trading. Even with my short-list of just 33 stocks divided by the main sectors of the S&P500, I have found plenty of trades. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 I can smell a Trade coming.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
End of the End, 16 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Daily range of the S&P500 is coiling tighter together, forming a symmetrical triangle pattern (▶︎). Can you see it? That means price is about to make a move. It's the end of the end. ➤ Symmetrical triangles are symmetrical for one reason, the price movement out of the triangle is a 50/50 toss of a coin, up or down. There is no edge to be obtained from guessing which direction it will go. ➤ So relax like I have been by chewing on some good ol' bamboo and wait for price to resolve itself. That is when the action starts. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Enter the beginning of the beginning. P.S. For those of you following my Live Paper Testing (trading of individual stocks and multi-asset classes), take note that I'm shorting quite a number of stocks. Despite the market moving higher today most of those stocks fell. This reflects the funny market where a handful of mega tech stocks are holding up the index.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
2
Dollar Got it's 50 day MA touch and should continue it's descentTraders, As you know everything is about the dollar rn. What it does determines what the rest of the U.S. market does. And, so far, what the U.S. market does has been helping us determine what Bitcoin will do. Bitcoin, being the lead dog, shows us what the remainder of the alt space will eventually do. This is how we follow the breadcrumbs to our next projected bull move. As you know if you have been following me for any length of time, I have been calling for a blow-off top in the U.S. stock markets. This will be followed by a more serious recession that very well could become hyper-inflationary in nature, meaning that it will take many, many more dollars to buy a thing. This "thing" would include anything from eggs to shares. The market is smart (but sometimes a little slow) and will eventually price this inflationary pressure (or dollar weakness in). When the dollar goes up, it's strong. It takes less dollars to buy a thing. So, markets generally go sideways or down. When the dollar is up and the VIX (fear index) is up, the markets almost always trend down. When the dollar is down and the VIX is down, the market will fly. The VIX is down currently. So now, we simply need to determine which way the dollar could continue. From my perspective, the overall trend remains descending. We have now touched the 50 day moving average, which, as you know, I had been hoping for for some time. The price movement is completed and we can now expect further downside and a retest of that larger Head and Shoulders neckline. Should that neckline break? Bye bye U.S. dollar. It is at this moment you will know the blow-off top has truly begun. We can expect new highs in our market to come before our recession. Best to you all in your trades during these times, Stew
TVC:DXYShort
by stewdamus
Entering SDOW is the ideaDIA daily went to a sell, waiting for price action to approach the P.O.M.O Position of maximum opportunity on DIA. With such a nice risk reward why not. My idea would be to play it via SDOW This short is riskier, Vix 1hr and 15min are R/R. DIA and SPY 1hrs went green. You just want to note the daily went to sell on DIA, waiting for it to retrace up to the pomo'y area for a small risk trade. Overall trading this way (waiting for a pomo that meets your bias) is about like a sore peter, you just can't beat it. AMEX:SDOW AMEX:DIA AMEX:SPY
AMEX:DIAShort
by lightningfreek
Stalemate, 12 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities are trading in a range within a range within another range in varying timeframes. It’s a stalemate. After the stalemate comes the party. I’m getting my outfit ready. 👗 ➤ Although equities are in a stalemate, other asset classes are not. GOLD looks to be in the early stages of breaking lower. EURUSD is already on the way down. I’m looking at this from a short-term trade opportunity. ➤ If you have seen my trading history you will notice plenty of flat spots where I am not involved in the equity market like now. Periods like this don't last very long. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Don't miss out on the Party! 🎉 EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - NEUTRAL ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro