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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

Who Blinks First? 19 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities ended slightly higher at the lower end of today's trading range. It was another one of those days that meant little by itself yet a story is unfolding within the context of a string of these days. ➤ When prices leapt higher from the March low, we saw the aggressive acceleration with large-sized daily moves and price gaps from day to day. A sign of excitement and enthusiasm. In recent days, we see the complete contrast with hesitative small daily moves creeping higher each day. ➤ With my best "tape" reading glasses on, I still cannot decipher which binary outcome it will be: Re-acceleration upwards explained by an upward accumulation phase or a Bearish trend reversal explained by the tiring progress into key resistance levels. Only one outcome can be true. ➤ I remain long with a small position. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Who will blink first? EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Price Projections, 18 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities finished in a robust manner at the highs although it was a low volatility day. It looks like the price is digesting the break out of the short-term consolidation prior to jumping higher. The question is how much higher? ➤ I studied the Wyckoff Method some years ago under the teachings of well-known proponents Roman Bogomazov and Bruce Fraser at Wyckoff Analytics. Although I only apply some minor elements of Wyckoff philosophy in my trading strategy, it was a transformative educational experience that opened my mind to the inner workings of the market. ➤ The reason why I bring up Wyckoff is that the methodology does incorporate a price projection element using the "point & figure" chart. This chart is "old school" in that is was predominantly used by Traders in the physical trading pits at exchanges. It simplifies a messy chart by displaying price action in terms of movement rather by chronological time. ➤ So let's play around with the price projection. I used the Dec 2022 consolidation to calibrate the inputs and it gave me a price of 411.5 for the SPY. This is the projection from the Mar 2023 low. Obviously we have already met that target. In the Dec example, the price did spike a few points higher than the projection prior to actual price reversal in Feb 2023. We should apply the same leeway. Coincidentally that would allow the price to peak around 415-418 near the Feb 2023 high - an obvious point for a reversal. ➤ I remain long with a small position. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Let's see if the price is about to peak as suggested. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
🟩 VIX is coming to 18 month low🚨🚨 ONE LINER 🚨🚨 Attention, traders! The Volatility Index ( TVC:VIX ) is approaching an 18-month low, which could indicate a strong bullish signal for the market. Background : Two months ago, in December 2022, I discussed the significance of the VIX dipping below the 20 level as a key milestone for a bullish market. Today, I want to dive deeper into this topic and share with you three compelling ideas that support the notion of an imminent bullish market. Let's explore the historical context and see how this information can help us make informed decisions in the current market. 💎 IDEA 1 OF 3: VIX as a Key Reversal Indicator Since 2022, the TVC:VIX has demonstrated a strong correlation with market reversals when positioned under the 20 level. This pattern suggests two possible outcomes: If the correlation breaks and VIX continues to stay low, we might see a sustained bullish trend. If the market reacts positively to today's FED communication, it could further solidify the bullish sentiment. It's essential to keep an eye on the market's reaction and the VIX's behavior from this point forward. During the bear market, the VIX typically fluctuated between 20 and 32, so a sustained drop below 20 could indicate a significant shift in market dynamics. 💎 IDEA 2 OF 3: VIX Levels During Market Rallies Historically, a VIX level below 20 is often associated with market rallies. Although we are currently above 20, the VIX remains relatively elevated compared to periods of strong upward trends. As the VIX moves closer to the 20 level, it's important to watch for signs of an impending bullish market rally, similar to what we experienced on December 4, 2022. 💎 IDEA 3 OF 3: VIX as a Market Transition Indicator In previous market transitions from high volatility bear markets to low volatility bull markets, the VIX played a crucial role. As the VIX pushed below the 20 level and remained there long-term, it allowed the market to rally upwards. We can use this historical precedent to study the current market and determine the probable direction. CONCLUSION : The VIX nearing an 18-month low presents a compelling bullish signal for traders. By analyzing the VIX's behavior as a key reversal indicator, its levels during market rallies, and its role in market transitions, we can gain valuable insights into the market's probable direction. Keep an eye on the VIX as it approaches the critical 20 level, and stay tuned for updates on the evolving market landscape. ––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– Here is a section for the real trading geeks who want to learn further: Let's examine some historical examples that highlight the VIX's behavior in relation to market trends. Example 1: 2009 Bull Market Rally In March 2009, the VIX dipped below 40, a significant milestone after the 2008 financial crisis when it had reached an all-time high of 89.53. As the VIX continued to decline, the S&P 500 rallied more than 60% by the end of the year, marking the beginning of a new bull market. Example 2: 2012 Market Rebound In 2011, the VIX spiked above 40 during the European debt crisis, causing increased market volatility. However, by early 2012, the VIX had fallen back below 20, coinciding with a strong market rebound. The S&P 500 gained over 13% that year, reflecting a renewed sense of optimism and stability in the market. Example 3: 2016 Post-Election Rally In the months leading up to the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election, the VIX experienced increased volatility, hovering around the 20-25 range. After the election, the VIX dropped below 15, and the stock market began a multi-year rally that continued into 2018. This period of low VIX levels correlated with significant gains in the S&P 500. These historical examples illustrate the VIX's ability to signal market sentiment and direction. When the VIX drops below key levels, such as 20, it often precedes a bullish market rally. By monitoring the VIX and its relationship with the overall market, traders can make more informed decisions and capitalize on potential opportunities. Happy trading from TinTinTrading!
TVC:VIXLong
by TintinTrading
The VIX Collapse, 17 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ On Friday the S&P500 held above short-term support on top of the trading range although it did give up earlier gains. That is not unsurprising as I did expect the support to be tested. The major feature was the collapse of the VIX to relatively low levels. My "A Regime Shift" post (linked) delves into what this may mean. ➤ A quick round up of other markets is warranted as we are sitting at interesting levels in many instances in their respective timeframes: ⦿ USD (daily): New low set, testing the breakdown. A successful test should see further weakening ⦿ TLT (weekly): Range bound. The bounce off the low looks corrective, the long-term downtrend is favoured ⦿ GOLD (daily): Choppy 2 steps up 1 step down but the uptrend is firmly entranched. I expect all time highs. ⦿ NATGAS (weekly): Testing resistance level. Unsuccessful so far. I expect further weakness if the test fails ⦿ OIL (3-day): Another week of gains would strengthen the bullish case with a Change of Behaviour, the first step for a true trend change ⦿ BTC (weekly): Testing long-term resistance. We may see some profit taking but the new bull trend is firmly in place. ➤ I have reduced my long equity positioning to minimum sizing to reflect a lower conviction on the short-term price movement. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Big flood of earnings should provide insight into further market direction. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
👀 A REGIME SHIFT?As you know, I'm a big fan of the VIX (aka Equity Fear index). It shows the 30-day expected volatility of the US equity market dervied from participants in the options market. The idea is that sophisticated investors tend to use options for hedging out risks. Below I show a long-term chart of the VIX in relation to the S&P500. Sorry for making you squint but you should get my point without all the tiny details. In equity markets, we basically see three regimes that dominate. ➊ Low volatility (in the middle of the chart) where the VIX is relatively low e.g < 17. Although there are periods of "fear" and spikes in the VIX, none is really consequential and we have a gradual slightly bumpy increase in equity prices. ➋ Hightened volatility (e.g VIX > 17) where the VIX stays heightened due to some underlying unease with the economy. This is reflected by larger swings up and down as Investors are more swayed by sentiment shifts. Usually we see side-ways moving action. ❸ Panic and Collapse of the VIX where it spikes significantly due to wide-spread fear followed by a sharp drop in the VIX as fear subsides. We see the huge sell-off and subsequent accelerated increase in equity prices ❓The reason why I bring up this topic is that I detect a binary shift. Currently we are in state ➋, a heighteneed volatility regime. With the recent drop in the VIX are we moving to ➊? A low volatility regime and therefore a bull market? or we have yet to experience ❸, the build up to a true panic event with the recent banking crisis being a warm-up. ➼ A state of heightened period of volatility (➋) usually doesn't last long. It is the holding pattern that gives way to ➊ or ❸. This is a binary outcome and that is why market sentiment is all over the place. This unease will resolve itself soon! ⭕️ In my opinion, there's no hurry to "bet the house" on either outcome. There's plenty of money to be made once the market has decided. 🐆 MrStocky
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
2
Vix sitting at key levelI forsee rates continuing to increase. Banking to continue having a hard time, the value of the dollar to get stronger, and the price of equities to decrease due to less attractive opportunity costs vs bonds. I think a lot of people are not expecting this, and instead were expecting the fed to pause and for a bull market to begin. I think that equities will be re adjusted quite rapidly, and this will cause the vix to spike. Therefore, I am long the vix.
TVC:VIXLong
by International_Leeroy
Mastering the VIX on TradingViewThe VIX, also known as the CBOE Volatility Index, is a widely-used financial instrument used to measure market volatility and investor sentiment. In this article, we will explore how to use the VIX on TradingView to improve your trading strategies. Before we dive into how to use the VIX, let's first understand what it is and how it works. The VIX is based on the S&P 500 index options, and measures the implied volatility of those options over the next 30 days. Essentially, the VIX provides a gauge of how much the market is expected to move over the next month. Now, let's discuss how to use the VIX on TradingView. To begin, open up the TradingView platform and search for the VIX symbol, which is typically denoted as VIX. Once you have located the VIX, add it to your watchlist and open up the chart. On the chart, you will notice that the VIX moves inversely to the S&P 500. When the S&P 500 goes down, the VIX goes up, indicating that market volatility is increasing. Conversely, when the S&P 500 goes up, the VIX goes down, indicating that market volatility is decreasing. So how can we use the VIX to improve our trading strategies? One strategy is to use the VIX as a hedging tool. For example, if you have a portfolio of stocks and are concerned about a potential market downturn, you could buy the VIX to protect yourself against losses. This is because the VIX tends to increase in value when the market is experiencing volatility. Another way to use the VIX is as a contrarian indicator. When the VIX is at a very low level, it may indicate that investors are overly complacent and that the market may be due for a correction. On the other hand, when the VIX is at a very high level, it may indicate that investors are overly fearful and that the market may be due for a rebound. In conclusion, the VIX is a powerful tool that can be used to measure market volatility and investor sentiment. By understanding how the VIX works and using it in conjunction with other technical indicators, you can improve your trading strategies and better navigate the unpredictable world of finance. Remember, always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Julien_Eche
1
VIX is dangerously lowThe Volatility S&P 500 Index rose slightly today, following a short period with a relatively low value. As is displayed on the chart, within the past year, these moments often coincided with tops in SPX and preceded times of increased volatility with significant selling pressure. Therefore, we will monitor this metric closely in the following days. *The orange line represents SPX. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
12
The Break Through, 14 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Yesterday I said narrow price ranges don't last long. It lasted a day more than I had hoped for but today we saw the break through. S&P500 broke above the short-term trading range. Not only that, it also broke an assortment of resistance levels. ➤ Before we get carried away, we should note that there is usually a test of the support level (previously resistance levels). The test may fail and price reverses back into the range. When that happens, it is likely the price will keep moving down to at least the bottom of that range. ➤ 418.31 on the SPY is the upside level that I am looking at. A break through that level would be very meaningful indeed. Especially if price can hold above it at month end. Why at month end? In my view, a monthly close above that high will change my overall long-term Bearish stance to Bullish. ➤ I hold a moderate long position. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Look up. Short-term equity trend has been upgraded. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
1
Treading Water, 13 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities failed to take advantage of the early bullish mood. Prices ended weakly for a solid down day. ➤ Yesterday I talked about the current state of the market and it being in a short-term consolidation phase. This is a situation where prices move up and down within a range treading water prior to breaking out higher or lower. Allowing for a new trend to emerge. Typically, the longer the consolidation phase the longer the subsequent trending phase. It's like a coiled spring releasing all its pent up energy. ➤ Today we saw the price fail to break above and continue to tread water. It is a delicate balance because the consolidation has a narrow range (high to low). Narrow ranges don't usually last very long. ➤ I've cut half of my long position in response to the further coiling of price. Short-term direction bias gets more cloudy the longer this goes on. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Tread lightly. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - NEUTRAL ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
SPY SPX S&P500S&P continues in the overall downtrend. We will continue to see bear market rallies and pull backs before continuing lower. As you can see, it's been lower lows and lower highs. If you listen to mainstream channels like CNBC or Bloomberg, it's always a bottom when stocks move upward but selling continues. I noticed when the mainstream says something the opposite usually happens. The week of June 20th, CNBC said that market selling would continue, which it didn't. CNBC said BestBuy would hit $65, it didn't. They continue to trap retailers, so, be very vigilant. MACD, economic data, and trends are all bearish. We will see recession sooner than "experts" anticipate. Alt Fed continues to slash their Q2 GDP estimates. Q1 already came in at a dismal -1.5%, during a time where unemployment is a historic low of 3.9%. So, with everyone employed that means the money should be flowing through the economy and retail should be good right? Wrong. Personal debt, revolving and non-revolving credit are at record highs, plus we saw a far worse than expected retail report of -0.3% vs 0.2% estimates. If you look at the data, it's not looking great. Earnings will take hits left and right and we have a much bigger chunk to go down.
AMEX:SPYShort
by WorldEconomics
4
Wild S&P Nonsensery Who could have guessed markets would rally in an ocean of bad news: Worse than expected CPI Worse than expected PCE Worse than expected Chicago PMI Joblessness Rising Missed Earnings Q2 GDP Contraction in Recession Collapsing Home and Auto Sales Who knew you could miss earnings, lose millions in revenue and your stock price rallies like Microsoft, Boeing, and Google. BestBuy which is a horrible performer in economic downturn also slashed guidance and their stock price rallied 10%. This market has become an utter joke and its pure manipulation due to QE and Buy Backs. At this point, I'm bullish. The more the bad news, the higher the market goes. Targets for S&P - 4209 - 4293 - 4340 If we break the dotted yellow line, we could see this going up towards the 4300 mark to the MA of 4350ish. If WWIII gets announced, I suspect this will rally to well over 7,000 or higher. There is no danger of a double top either at 4200, that is now a myth. Recession is a myth. Americans are actually FLUSHED with cash and prices aren't high enough and things in the US couldn't be better.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by WorldEconomics
2
Nothing Day, 12 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ A dull Tuesday for equities. There was nothing in the price action of importance. All eyes on Wednesday inflation day. ➤ Yesterday, a reader made the same comment about the low volume Easter Monday trade. I pretty much agree with that statement. Individually, each trading day may in itself have no particular bearing but together with other days there can be meaning. ➤ A very simple example: say today was a bullish day. If the next day is also bullish what do we think about the chances of the following day being bullish too? Statistically, it is slightly better than 50%. A string of bullish days builds momentum and it turns into a trend. ➤ Let's look at this in the context of the current market condition. The S&P500 has been trading sideways in a tight range. What does this mean? It is not in a trend, it is in a short-term consolidation. A break up or down out of the consolidation is the beginning of a trend. Which way will it break? I'm favouring the upside as reflected in my buy position. However, it could also keep moving sideways or down. With the latter two scenarios I would most likely fail on my hunt and realise a loss. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Nothing will turn into something. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - NEUTRAL ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
A Deeper Looking Into VIXThere are issues when it comes to the VIX volatility index's ability to project impending volatility - in part because options themselves are increasingly speculative vehicles rather than mere hedges to the underlying - but there is still a lot to glean from the the implied measures of activity. Aside from the SKEW in implieds showing tail risk and volatility of volatility gauge showing underlying habits of jumpiness that the VIX alone doesn't well capture, I like the comparison of a shorter and longer duration gauge. I thought we didn't have any robust short-term implied readings for the US indices space since VXST was scrapped some years ago, but apparently we now have CBOE:VIX9D - which covers is pretty self explanatory - relative to the 30-day traditional index. It's not the 'overnight' relative to '1-week' I like to pull from expensive data providers for FX volatility comparisons, but it can give useful insight. What do the VIX9D - VIX suggest now? That we are underpricing the potential for a strong reaction (regardless of direction) heading into Wednesday CPI and Friday bank earnings.
TVC:VIX
by JohnKicklighter
A Round Trip, 11 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities recovered (again) from an ugly start on Easter Monday. While half of the world were still on holidays, equities gradually fell prior to US market open only for the Bulls to come in to support the price at the critical levels. By the end of days' trade, the S&P500 made a round trip back to where it settled prior to the holidays. ➤ So what was all that price action about? Perhaps it is the jittery signs of the earning seasons proper and inflation data on Wednesday. It could be action to shake out the weak hands on the long and short side. Firstly, a drop to weed out the weak Bull and second to sucker in the Bears only to smack them in the face. Overall, the price action wasn't all that meaningful other than to point out that there is strong Bullish support at these levels. We shall see very shortly if this continues to hold true. ➤ I'm currently long with maximum position. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 I've pounced on my prey. Will I succeed or fail on this hunt? EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - NEUTRAL ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro