VIX CBOE Volatility Index
The Flipper, 29 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Another low volatility day. Equity prices recovered to finish where it started the day. For me it meant flipping my short position to being long/buy.
➤ "The Flipper" in Cricket is a bowling action made famous by the legend leg spinner Shane Warne...may he rest in peace. It's a normal looking spinning delivery but actually just skids on straight with extra pace. It often leads to the Batters' demise as he/she is completely fooled.
➤ In a way, the recent price action in equities is like that. With all the fearmongering, banking crisis, etc etc...the market has hardly budged. What was lost was recovered. VIX also didn't shoot up aggressively and has completely collapsed once again.
➤ Will it continue? Is the market too complacent? You should know my answer to that...I really don't care all that much although it is interesting listening to all the arguments.
➤ I'm just trading the price action as I see it. If I'm right or wrong, make or lose money it certainly isn't because I thought about this macro factor or that. That's just not my skillset.
➤ Conclusion: A bit peeved at not being to realise a decent profit on the short...let's see what a maximum-sized long play will bring.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - DOWN
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
A Short Stay, 28 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ A low volatility start to the week. NASDAQ underperformed while Russell 2000 small cap caught a bid. Price could not push through the short-term resistance level above 400 on the SPY. VIX keeps moving lower.
➤ I'm finally back in the action with a moderate short position. It's going to be a short stay, 1 or 2 days perhaps. It was kind of an unfortunate start. Equity prices burst higher in the few seconds into the close just after the opening of my position. A little bit annoyed with that.
➤ Conclusion: Remember that we are in choppy conditions so I'm not expecting any major directional moves as yet.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - DOWN
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
3/27/2023 (Monday) SPY Analysis and Market Deep DiveMonday 3/27/2023 - In this Video I discuss The technical analysis of the SPY ETF which is a proxy the S&P500 that is often a tell on general market movements. I also discuss broader market Macros I have been watching including last week's and next weeks economic events. We also discuss some recession indicators, and other charts that show headwinds and tailwinds to equities.
In the Trading View App, You can use the links below and hit play, so you can see the action from the dates the charts were published. I will keep this going so we can follow outcomes to analysis!
$NDX leads but has had issues in this area beforeBeen away for a week, needed time off. Visited family. Did some light trading, mostly closing closing puts sold as most of them expired worthless = We kept PREMIUM! 🙂
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Let's see how markets fared.
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As we expected, $NDX has done decently & has kept retesting the upper boundary hit in February. It's breaking above today. BULLISH if accompanied with volume. As we've stated for months, markets don't act as most believe. They are irrational much of the time.
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$DJI has not fared as well BUT will LIKELY join #NDX in the upward movement. The issue was 2 #banks on the #DJI. The #DowJones fared much better during the beginning of the year but lost leadership in February.
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$VIX has stayed in the middle part of the Symmetrical Triangle. Which tends to be the case until as extreme direction ensues. As stated countless times this can stay the case until mid 2024! Most likely not but it can. We believe it will touch the bottom part of the trend, higher probability, before, IF, it hits the top part again.
#stocks #stockmarket #vix
$SPY - a crucial couple of weeks ahead 📉SPY faced a major rejection at around $401.50, suggesting it will struggle to break through again. If bulls do push past, I see significant resistance at $404-$407.50. However, it's unlikely we'll reach there soon. I expect the rally to lose momentum and break through to $380s.
I recognize potential upside but expect more downside to come.
Side Note- I'll be watching $AAPL $NVDA $META for potential sell-offs.
Chop Chop, 25 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ The week ended positively for equities with brisk late buying on Friday trade. The exact opposite of the late strong sell-off on Wednesday just on a smaller scale. That sell-off remains the dominant feature.
➤ With the exception of Tech and perhaps day trading, it was pretty choppy everywhere else for generating returns. Somewhat like being swirled around in the washing machine not knowing where we will end up. At this juncture, one could come to the conclusion that despite all the hoo-ha about impending disaster it was just pure fear mongering built up with social media...at least in the very short term.
➤ I'm not too upset to have been left out of the action this week. I think any trade would have been chopped up and spat out. I'm looking forward to next week as the price action is evolving into a structure that is recognisable.
➤ Conclusion: Let's hope we don't get the same choppy conditions next week. Have a great weekend!
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - DOWN
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
I'm No Day Trader, 24 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ I'm not a day trader but it's a perfect market environment to be one. Volatility is just at the right level where prices swing/trend but are constrained in a range. Today was a perfect example.
➤ Equity prices swung up and down and finished slightly positive. Once again NASDAQ outperformed and the regional bank heavy Russell 2000 small cap stocks lagged. There's also lots of money to be made by astute sector selection just like last year. Money can still be made by a long-only investor in a Bear market!
➤ Today's price action keeps the Bears in play. An attempt to reverse yesterday's plunge failed albeit no further ground was lost. This was helped by the 200 day moving average acting as a wall of resistance. The VIX acted a bit better to correspond with that bearish tone but still looks unconvincing.
➤ Conclusion: We are getting closer to a suitable trade set-up.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - DOWN
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
The Best Dentist, 23 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ The Market is indeed the BEST Dentist. Rarely does it allow a gap to remain. The price gap in the SPY from Tuesday trade was immediately filled. Yesterday, I contemplated about the manner in that it was to be filled. The Market decided on the second option - a spike higher before moving lower.
➤ Equity markets sold-off aggressively at the end of the trading session. Small cap was battered once more losing almost double that of the major indices.
➤ Inspite of the selling, the VIX remained unperturbed. I would be sceptical of this bearishness if there was to be no follow-through selling and a move higher in the VIX. As you know, I'm keen to see follow-through action as a means of confirming a directional move.
➤ I was hoping for a bullish or small bearish day. That would have neatly set-up a potential short trade. Today's action stole a lot of that potential. That means I will need to wait patiently and see how price action evolves.
➤ Conclusion: Trading action has been a start and stop affair similar to Feb. Hopefully we will get into the action towards the end of the month!
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - DOWN
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
VIX -INVESTORS FEAR/GREED INDICATORVIX showing signals of a bullish market open
1)I believe something will big will happen to the market in the upcoming days as the VIX is almost reaching a new All time Low possibly indicating a bullish shift in the market.
2) In the second chart shown, it seems like the VIX will enter a free fall.
How to translate the VIX: Above 20 we are bearish and below 20 we are bullish. The VIX indicator is a representation of investor fear in the market. As the fear grows, the number increases making it bad for the market overall.
Why should we care?
-This indicator has successfully predicted the 2008 crash and Corona crash. It is a very powerful indicator when it comes to knowing how investors feel psychologically about the market.
$VIX has sold off after top call, now what? The $VIX is trading within the symmetrical triangle, still. As mentioned many times over the last year this pattern can take many months to resolve. Long term traders have to be patient until this revolves.
Short and intermediate time frame traders can use the tops and bottoms to implement buys and sells to maximize profit. It's what we've been doing.
At the moment it looks like the bottom part of the trend is calling. Not to pat ourselves in the back, again and again, we did call this to be a volatile year. Don't see a resolution to that until the triangle is broken.
spx 2hour advanced xabcd short from resistanceHello traders, this is 2hour chart of SPX (S&P500). Currently looking
at speculative XABCD setup, advanced entry on sell side from overhead
resistance at point C, which is 4218. Points X/A/B confirmed already.
Pattern overview and levels: X at 3742, A at 4173, B at 3853,
point C and 4218 and point D/PRZ at 3615 (extension).
Point C/D also coincide with liquidity gaps, so this improves
odds of putting on a successful trade at C/D.
Recommended strategy: wait for price to max out near C
at 4128 and short sell from overhead resistance, bears will
target point D at 3615 to complete the pattern structure.
Later on bulls may look for a reversal near point D, but right
not it's too early to look for bullish setups in this market.
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Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Watch the Gap, 22 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Another positive day in equity markets and I'm sensing some kind of pattern. Small cap caught up a bit with the main indices.
➤ Today (Wednesday) is the main event. It's the US Fed interest rate decision day. There's no doubt everyone has an eye or ear on the announcement.
➤ Before you ask, I have no clue on the outcome per se and I don't particularly care. I don't have skin in the game so I'm not gonna be losing any sleep over it. BUT I'm of course interested in the price action post data release. I'm hoping the price action isn't too messy and ruin a good potential trade set-up.
➤ In terms of likely movement, there is an open price gap in the SPY due to Tuesday trade. Price can easily close that gap. The sequence of events would be interesting. Will the gap be closed immediately with a downward spike or will it be closed after a failure of an initial bullish phase? I again have no idea.
➤ Conclusion: Price action so far points to a bullish bias. We saw a similar set-up in Sept 2022. That time, price reversed immediately. Take care.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - DOWN
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
None The Wiser, 21 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Positive day in equity markets and for once Nasdaq lagged in the advance against other major indices.
➤ There's lots of conjecture out there about the outperformance of the Nasdaq and for that matter Bitcoin over recent days during banking crisis. In my opinion, this was all directly related to the massive drop in yields in the Bond market. Lower rates generally benefits tech valuations (through their ability to borrow cheaply i.e a lower cost cost of capital). This risk-on mode also benefits Bitcoin. The high correlation between Tech and Nasdaq still hold.
➤ There is the argument that Bitcoin is now showing signs of "de-coupling" due it's "safe haven" status and being the anti-thesis of a de-basing fiat system. It may be true on the margin but in my view there is insufficient evidence.
➤ In terms of the overall price action today in equities, I am none the wiser to what happens next. Once again, the price was engulfed within the large Bullish bar on Thursday last week. VIX dropped marginally too but it is still elevated. Overall, it provides a slight bias towards the Bulls.
➤ Conclusion: I'm looking forward to less ambiguous price action. This may occur post Wednesday's Fed interest rate decision.
NOTES: 200-day Moving average back into the mix.
$DXY - What goes down, must come up!If we break through this most recent TL on $DXY, we'll have another point of retest for a bounce especially with a potential inverse H&S at play here.
I fully expect $DXY to re-enter the supply zone which aligns with my view that another leg down is approaching for $SPY.
$VIX - Something is brewingIn my previous post, I outlined where $SPY rejected off the bear flag resistance. You'll see that those two times correlate with the two times $VIX tested pennant support. With the third VIX retest, we may see $SPY near my gray TL of ~$400 (see related idea linked). I'm still expecting another leg down, and will take a short position if I see optimal R:R (I'll update).
No doubt, today was a boring day for $SPY. As I outlined in my update above, staying patient and understanding the right time to execute is what'll get you the W. Good luck!
$SPY - Watch for another leg downI plan to WIN on this upcoming trade with optimal risk-to-reward: I pointed out yesterday that we'll see slow upward movement on $SPY. I'm still expecting another leg down, and will take a short position if I see optimal R:R (I'll update).
In my subsequent post, you'll see that the two times $VIX tested pennant support, $SPY rejected off the bear flag resistance (in this graph). With the third VIX retest, we may see $SPY near the gray TL of ~$400.
I'm waiting for this likely scenario to take my short and am holding my long stance.
Mixed Territory, 20 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Friday trade in Equities ended down. However, when viewed from the candlestick charts, you can see that the price action was fully "engulfed" by the Bullish candle/bar on Thursday. The interpretation of this action should therefore place more importance on the dominant Bullish candle.
➤ In early Monday Asian trade, things are positively biased. However, we should be aware of the current short and medium technical set-ups in and around the news flow.
➤ In the short-term (since Jan 2 high), we are still in a down-trend (lower lows, lower highs) but in the medium-term (since Oct '22 low), we remain in an up trend (higher highs, higher lows). This paints a mixed picture. When we are in this territory, prices tend to fluctuate more due to the conflicting positioning of market participants.
➤ First and foremost, I think VIX will settle down lower in the immediate term. It may then spike again. That may present a great short opportunity. Keep in mind that the Wednesday 22nd Fed rate decision will probably be the most watched market event ever.
➤ Conclusion: Stick closely to your trading/investment plan, don't get swayed by the news flow.
NOTES: BTC and Gold are well supported. I will provide an update on Gold price action later today.
The Fed's Pivot - What to Expect in the Months Ahead In this video, I explain what to expect in the months ahead, following the Fed's pivot back to monetary easing.
Also, I wanted to make several notes:
When I said that it's almost never better to own derivatives than holding an asset outright, I do realize the importance that derivatives can play with leverage and risk management.
When I said that fear is always highest at the +2 standard deviation of the log-linear regression channel, this was confusing because typically fear is highest when price reaches the -2 standard deviation. In this particular ratio chart, fear over the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust was highest when Bitcoin outperformed it enough for the BTC/GBTC ratio to reach the +2 standard deviation.
When I said that the log-linear regression channel is one of the best indicators, I do realize that compared to other statistical methods, this indicator is quite rudimentary. Nonetheless, I find it to be quite useful.
I apologize for the poor audio, this seems to be a matter of how TradingView is uploading my audio. On my end, my audio is very clear.
Important Disclaimer
Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
vix 8 hour chart another 150% spike in April?Hello traders, today let's review VIX 8hour and daily chart .
Is it possible that another 150% burst is in the making now?
Entirely plausible, in fact based on advanced XABCD setup
the current pullback/correction might be over near 15/16.00
later in April. Based on time/price symmetry point C of
the XABCD pattern structure might come in at 15/16.00
sometime in April 2023.
The pattern is defined by point X at 33.00, point A at18.50,
point B at 30.00, expecting point C print at 16.00 and point
D print at 38.00, based on 127 extension.
Recommended strategy: buy calls / write puts once
we land near point C near 16.00. this is a higher risk
entry strategy, so always do your own due dill and
use other indicators to confirm the entry. good luck!
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.