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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

Expect the Unexpected, 16 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities once again recovered the majority of losses to finish the day with positive momentum. If you read my post last week about the "Follow-Through" this is exactly what I meant. Despite the sharp drop and fear in the marketplace, there was no follow-through. Thus the signs point to a rebound higher and I'm now positioned that way with a moderate long position. ➤ As you know, I'm only talking about the very short-term i.e. a few days at the most. That is where I get most transparency and the reason why I operate in this space as a short-term Trader. ➤ The lower price gap in the S&P500 was immediately filled and now a higher gap has been left open. I'm hoping this will get filled in favour of my long position. ➤ Conclusion: With heightened volatility, you can throw a large amount of logic out of the door. Emotional responses are the main driver. Often this is no rational. Expect the unexpected. NOTES: Tech continues to outperform. S&P500 has not made a new low as yet. Medium uptrend remains intact.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Dollar & VIX ripping, Yields cratering, Stocks fallingGood Morning! We've been mostly cash when it comes to #stocks. Been defensive as we have #GOLD #SILVER #BCH #BTC (#crypto #altcoins in personal) some $VIX & some bigger VALUE names, added some more today $AMGN $VZ as examples. We've reduced the exposure as the direction seems south but anything can happen. FEAR is the word. #Dollar ripping again & bond buying. $DXY looks good & bounced off of support. Look @ yields CRATERING again. 1Yr & 2Yr #yields COLLAPSING! 10Yr HOLDING MAJOR SUPPORT & back at level it was 2 days ago. We noticed something some time ago & will post soon. $VIX is trading in a new range now & closing in on the TOP part of range. 2 things can happen here. Either we rip through, likely causing a COLLAPSE in #stockmarket OR IT pulls back to the 23ish range and keep in this new range & fear eventually subsides.
TVC:DXY
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
"Th-Th-The, Th-Th-The, Th-Th... That's all, folks!", 15 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities recovered all losses since last Friday when things really started to fall apart. In the words of Porky Pig: "Th-Th-The, Th-Th-The, Th-Th... That's all, folks!" With a bit of a stutter, the crisis is all but averted. Sound the all clear! ➤ Well, that's my view in the very short-term from a technical basis. The only thing that I'm waiting for is an exit signal and/or a signal to reverse my short position to a buy/long position. What happens after the very short-term is anyone's guess. ➤ I note that there is a lower gap that has formed as a result of today's price action. Let's see if the gap is filled immediately or at a later date. ➤ From a fundamental perspective, if the crisis is resolved/contained, then there is no reason for the Fed to pause rising interest rates. They can keep pushing rates higher in order to fight inflation until "something" else breaks. That means there is no immediate "pivot". ➤ Conclusion: Watch the VIX to see if volatilty remains heightened or it continues to collapse post assurances by the US regulatory authorities. NOTES: Tech outperformed last couple of days. I assume much of this is based on the "pivot" or lower rate expectations.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
Defended, 14 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities finished lower on Monday trade. If you had shut your eyes and ears over the weekend and arrived right now after market close, you’d think the market performance at the index level was just like any usual day in the past year. It was volatile, but it was certainly nothing extraordinary. In that respect, the regulatory authorities have done their job to “calm” markets. However, the movements in the regional banks and hyper volatility in Bonds tells us it was anything but ordinary. ➤ S&P500 price fell but was defended at the congestion zone that includes the level at which the year started. VIX hit 30 at my panic level and then receded. I expect things to settle down for a little while until market participants fully digest the ramifications of the policy changes and post mortem of the last 72hrs. There is however a slew of economic data this week starting with CPI Tuesday! ➤ I took off half of my short positions to lock-in profits given the above price action. ➤ In the short-term, prices are in a downtrend having established lower highs and lower lows. In the medium-term, the uptrend remains in tact although barely. A move below the 22nd Dec low would set a lower low and void the uptrend based on classical definition of an uptrend. ➤ Conclusion: Lots of volatility means lots of opportunity. Good luck All! NOTES: $BTC and crypto reacted very well in contrast. Small cap continues to underperform.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
$VIX hits top part of Symmetrical triangle$VIX rarely tends to trade in a small & tight range. #VIX Sold off big last couple months & traded in a decent range for a bit & recently, including today, popped big. As you can see it hit the top part of the Triangle Formation. Hard to call here but stocks gaining some momentum, being that many were OVERSOLD, including $DJI & $NDX, $SPX and so on, is not out of the question. Risk reward @ day lows in #stocks was good. A lot of fear out there is good for reversals. Keep eye out on 4 hour charts for a good idea of where we stand. FYI $DJI 4hour close was NOT the best setup BUT it did form a BULLISH Engulfing with GOOD VOLUME. IMO 32.5k on #DJI is good & if it breaks & holds that is a good sign.
CBOE:VIX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
High IV sets up premium selling environmentWith VIX ripping on today's bank FUD the IV Rank and IV Percentile of SPY is the highest in a year's worth of trading days. This sets up opportunities for premium selling that have not existed for a very long time. Rules: SELL the 20 Delta Strikes at 45 DTE or greater in monthly expirations. BUY wings at 10 Delta Strikes same DTE That ended up being: SELL May 350 Put SELL May 414 Call BUY May 325 Put BUY May 425 Call For 4.64 Credit. The plan is to "manage deltas" and keep this position delta neutral through the duration until 50% credit received. That means if the sides get tested directionally roll up the untested side, increasing credit, to get the delta back to as close to 0 as is reasonable.
CBOE:VIX
by norok
Technical Expectations, 12 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Most of you don't come to me for my thoughts on the fundamental aspects of the market environment and I don't usually offer them. There is however one particular aspect I think is worthy of mention. ➤ By now most of you should have read about the fundamental state of affairs in regards to SVB (Silicon Valley Bank). There are huge ramifications in regards to the further potential fall-out. ➤ If the fear or actual contagion takes place with similarly positioned banks or financial institutions then the next "target" would once again entangle the crypto space. Silvergate was the pre-cursor. But the "BIG" one or the "last man standing" is Signature Bank through its "Signet" service. ➤ Signet is as I understand it the basic backbone or gateway of fiat-to-crypto capital flows. It is the infrastructure for capital movement between the two worlds. If Signature Bank gets into trouble, the knock-on effects on crypto might be crippling at least in the short-term. Let's face it, crypto is not yet mature enough to be it's own self sustaining ecosystem. Anyway that's my take on this matter. I stand corrected. ➤ Back to the technicals, although we saw continued selling in equities on Friday, there was some late buying at end of day and into after-hours trading. I cannot tell you if this was dumb money bargin/dip buying or smart money taking advantage of the sharp drop. ➤ The VIX spiked to 28 before receding. For me, the panic level in equity markets is for a move in the VIX to 30 or beyond. We didn't get there. Of course, any contagion fear or otherwise should move VIX much higher. If it doesn't, it should be an "all clear" sign at least in the short-term. ➤ Conclusion: What will be important is the messenging by the US regulatory authorities and how market participants react to it. I would expect some sort of clarification or official stance taken prior to markets opening in Asia on Monday. Silence or a message that doesn't allay fears may result in a bad outcome in the short-term. NOTES: $BTC and crypto price is holding well despite the most recent developments.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
Banking on Disaster: Fed Continues to TightenThe Federal Reserve's extreme tightening just caused the second-largest bank collapse in U.S. history (in nominal dollars). In this post, I will explain just how far the contagion is likely to spread, and why this is likely just the start of what may be widespread liquidity crises. In early 2022, in order to mitigate the record inflation it caused, the Fed began hiking interest rates. By mid-2022, the Fed was raising interest rates at the fastest pace on record. The rate of change (or ROC) in Treasury yields began to rise parabolically. Below is a chart that I posted back in August 2022 to show how extreme the rate of change was for the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond yield. Since bond prices move inversely to yields, bond prices began to fall sharply in 2022 as yields were rising. In October 2022, I posted the below ratio chart of TLT and M2SL to illustrate the immense wealth destruction that holding Treasury bonds was having for investors and institutions. I warned that what was occurring is destabilizing. To understand how I used the ratio chart of TLT and M2SL to conclude that, due to the Fed's extreme tightening, destabilizing wealth destruction was occurring for bondholders, you can see my post below. By late 2022, it became a mathematical certainty that liquidity crises would occur. Many market participants who were holding extremely low-yielding bonds were experiencing extreme losses because of the Fed's extreme rate hikes. Such losses are unrealized unless the bondholders are forced to liquidate while yields are much higher than when the bonds were purchased. For those who recall what happened in October 2022, pension funds in the UK were forced to liquidate their highly leveraged bond positions at a loss due to margin calls. This caused the Bank of England to quickly pivot in order to avert a major liquidity crisis for pension funds. Silicon Valley Bank ( SIVB ) however was not as lucky as UK pension funds. SIVB was at the forefront of the central bank-engineered liquidity crisis because of its unique clientele: debt-dependent start-ups. As liquidity was being destroyed by the Fed at a record pace in 2022, start-ups, which are heavily reliant on debt and cheap money to continue operations and generate growth, began to draw down their deposits as cash evaporated and borrowing became more expensive. This in turn forced SIVB to liquidate its bond holdings at a major loss, similar to the UK pension funds in October 2022. Once Silicon Valley Bank reported this major loss to the public, the market suddenly began to fear its viability. Within days, the bank collapsed. The collapse of SIVB occurred with an estimated 85% to 96% of all deposit amounts not being FDIC-insured. This means that most of the $175 billion in deposits at the time of the collapse may be partially or totally unrecoverable. Two things about the bank's collapse are remarkable: First, the unprecedented speed by which the bank collapsed and was seized by the FDIC, and, second, the overwhelming majority of the money deposited in the bank was not FDIC-insured. This is quite concerning because such a lack of FDIC insurance on deposits undermines the public's faith in the FDIC to maintain banking stability. Such a lack of insurance also causes actual liquidity contagion. Circle, the company that manages the USDC stablecoin, has confirmed that $3.3 billion of its U.S. dollar reserves were in the now-collapsed bank. At the time of writing, Circle does not know if or when the FDIC will come to the rescue. It's possible that neither the FDIC nor the U.S. Treasury comes to Circle's rescue, as neither entities are eager to support the cryptocurrency industry, which undermines U.S. dollar hegemony. The FDIC, therefore, faces a major conundrum: Maintain the public's faith in FDIC-guaranteed banking and ensure there is no liquidity contagion, at the expense of acting as a protector of stablecoins and cryptocurrency, and more generally, increasing moral hazard. Nonetheless, this fear that the FDIC may not come to the rescue has caused USDC to de-peg from the US dollar. Each USDC is now worth less than one US dollar, as shown in the chart below. Upon seeing USDC rapidly de-pegging, the cryptocurrency exchange platform, Coinbase, decided to temporarily freeze USDC conversion into U.S. dollars, forcing a reprieve in USDC's de-pegging. Nonetheless, at the time of writing, USDC is still teetering on the brink of collapse, having lost nearly 90% of the Tether ( USDT ) in its 3pool currency reserves. USDC instability is now spilling over into other cryptocurrency spaces that rely on USDC maintaining a stable value. One such space is the AAVE protocol. AAVE is an Open Source Liquidity Protocol that operates on the premise that only "low-risk tokens" such as USDC be used as collateral and as a lending pool reserve. Now that USDC has de-pegged from the U.S. dollar, any collateral that was pledged in USDC is now suddenly worth less. This is destabilizing the liquidity and reserve structure of the AAVE protocol. AAVE currently has $6 billion of locked liquidity across its networks. Although it is possible that the FDIC can fully resolve the crisis caused by the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, it is likely that volatility may persist, especially when Coinbase resumes USDC swaps. In a worst-case scenario, USDC may follow the same trajectory as TerraUSD (UST) in May 2022. In this scenario, the shockwaves will be felt not only across the cryptocurrency space but also in the Treasury market. If too many stablecoin holders suddenly demand dollars, it could force a liquidation of Treasurys on reserve. Circle currently has over $32 billion worth of Treasurys in its reserves. Although this may not be significant enough to destabilize the multi-trillion dollar Treasury market, it can cause positive feedback and can increase fear in the market. This series of events was predictable and expected. The root cause is the central bank's monetary policy. The Fed is destroying the money supply at the fastest rate on record. Since the Fed is still tightening, which has a long and variable lag effect, the liquidity crises we're seeing now are likely the tip of the iceberg. The fact the Fed is still tightening so deep into the start of a financial crisis is unprecedented. When Lehman collapsed in September 2008, for example, the Fed had already pivoted over a year earlier (in August 2007). Now, it seems that a financial crisis is already underway but the Fed remains unable to pivot due to record-high inflation. Eurodollar futures are still demanding that the Fed hike rates. The Fed is therefore trapped. It must choose between runaway inflation or widespread liquidity crises. The yield curve is deeply inverted. This is a reliable indication that a recession is coming. The fact that it has been inverted for a while, and is deeply inverted, may be foreshadowing the extent and duration of the coming recession. In my post below, I explained why I believe that the most likely outcome is severe stagflation. The Fed is in a Catch-22, and there's no way to avert some kind of a crisis. Indeed, the coming years will likely reveal to us what the consequences are for decades of limitless monetary easing. Important Disclaimer Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
by SpyMasterTrades
19
Approaching a pivotal week for the S&PThe S&P500 / ES is sitting right at a critical point which I believe will break this week or next The weekly chart shows that the S&P is now above most key moving averages, including the 200 moving average (displayed in black), the 20 moving average (displayed in white) and the 50 moving average (displayed in yellow). Also it has broken above the upper resistance trend line (displayed in red), these are all obviously very bullish but a few major headwinds remain that may upset this upwards momentum. Price last week touched the 100 moving average (displayed in blue) but then rejected back down to end up finishing right at the Fib Extension 0.236 level. Ironically the 100 moving average has been a menacing level that has been difficult for the S&P to break through, 7 weeks ago and 21 weeks ago exactly the same touch and rejection of the 100ma occurred. Further to this we are about to enter one of the most bearish seasonal periods of the year for the S&P, I've included a seasonality indicator in my chart which shows 3 year, 6 year and 9 year tendencies and they all have exactly the same downwards pattern starting in February. The indicator below the Seasonality scan is RVI (relative volatility index), this is good for measuring both the volatility along with direction. Inline with what the market has been doing the past few years the RVI had been generally trending up and created a support line that was largely unbroken from end 2018 - Jan 2022, and since been broken the RVI is now showing a downwards trend and instead of a support line there is a resistance level over head that price is close to approaching. The last indicator on the chart includes Larry Williams Vix_Fix which had turned red recently (2 bars/weeks), signalling we are in historically low volatility period in the VIX, most traders know that large moves often follow periods of very low and/or contracting volatility. This last indicator also includes a display for the bond yield curve and this is currently shown in the maroon/deep red which confirms a fairly long period inverted curve which is also known as a precursor sign of recession and market sell off. The recent closed weekly candle was an indecision candle so this week that is coming or perhaps the one that follows should tell a lot about where the market will be heading over the course of the next few months A bullish bias would mean Price this coming week will disregard the seasonal bearish tendency and instead break above both the 100ma and the 0.236 Fib and close the week above these levels. A bearish bias would mean Price has closed back below the resistance level on the chart (both price resistance & RVI resistance) and price has tracked the normal declining seasonal pattern that plays out around this time of the year. I see more chart evidence of a coming decline than an incline but in any case we still need to wait for direction confirmation which should look like one of the above scenarios. So it is time to pay very close attention to the charts and In the week that follows the market direction confirmation signal I suspect we will see some large and fast moves of either sideline money coming into the market to cause one last blow off top before some kind of recession sell off later in the year or heavy selling as these key levels get rejected and the seasonal sell of takes hold.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by gary_trades
SPX | Early AccessI have posted about this chart before, but I wanted to show it more clearly this time. Above we see SPX, the standard chart. Below we see a custom index I invented, which is VVIX/VIX. It is a neat way to make sense of the chaotic nature of VIX. To clear things out, I have hidden both charts and instead I show an indicator called WLSMA. It is tremendously helpful to smoothen the "fog" the standard chart creates. In the end I will add the link to the inventor. I took great care on drawing these trendlines. I tried to get into the mind of the investor back then, and drew the lines that best made sense, and could provide some actual meaning. On the chart, red arrows are drawn. These are the times when the VVIX/VIX chart violates decisively it's trendline. On the same dates, I created arrows on the SPX chart to get an idea of just how early this method warns us. While this method may not be useful for traders (I am not a trader, I am just passionate analyzing charts), I find it incredibly interesting on how these two correlate, and make actual sense. I find VIX by itself completely useless. Don't get triggered by what I said. How on earth is VIX = 20 a good buy-in strategy? It is as about as useful as RSI getting below 80. Again don't get triggered by it and flame comments down below. Numbers and money don't mean nothing. It is perspective and values that make sense. Now onto some charts: In 2008 we were notified from VVIX/VIX all the way back in February of 2007, and got a confirmation on April of 2007. This is not a typo, 1 year before the GFC. Curiously, this happened when FED's tightening schedule was near it's end. Also interesting is the April-September period of 2008, when the VVIX/VIX chart showed signs of hope when it broke above it's trendline. And compared to now: We can conclude similarly for the 2010-2015 period. And the 2016-2020 period. And the 2020-2023 period of course. Are we approaching this hopeful period before the crisis? A comparison between 2008 and 2023, in the period of deadly hope. Link to the inventor of the WLSMA indicator: Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
4